South Indian Bank Buy

Transcription

1 STOCK POINTER South Indian Bank Buy Target Price 36 CMP 26.5 FY20E Adj P/BV 1.2X Index Details Sensex 34,285 Nifty 10,516 Industry Banks Scrip Details MktCap ( cr) 4, BVPS (`) 26.8 O/s Shares (Cr) Week H/L 34.7/21.8 Div Yield (%) 1.6 FVPS (`) 1 Shareholding Pattern Shareholders % Promoters 0.0 Public Total SIB vs. Sensex With most of the provisioning of the stressed assets behind us and South Indian Bank (SIB) focusing on aggressively growing its retail book, we expect the growth story to start unfolding. We expect the loan book to grow at a 16% CAGR to Rs 72,810 crore by FY20, driven by a 21% CAGR in the retail book. Further we expect NPAs to normalize to historical levels and, as a result, earnings are expected to grow at 28.6% CAGR to Rs crore over the same period. We re-initiate coverage on South Indian Bank (SIB) with a BUY recommendation and a Price Objective of 36 (target Adj P/BV multiple of 1.2x) implying an upside potential of ~36%. At the CMP of 26.5, the stock is trading at an Adj P/BV of 0.9x FY20E and compares favorably with peers of similar size. With the board already having given approval for fund raising through equity placement (20 crore shares) to Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIB), capital adequacy will not be a constraint and should help sustain growth momentum over the forecast period FY Robust advances growth over FY17-FY20 with focus on Retail, SME & Agri lending After experiencing a muted growth for a long period and provisioning for majority of the stressed asset portfolio, SIB seeks to lay thrust on the retail lending book. This will be achieved through expanding its pan India branch network by 150 branches, following a cluster based approach and focusing on building a granular portfolio. We expect the advance book to grow at a CAGR of 16% from Rs 46,389.5 crore in FY17 to Rs 72,810 crore in FY20, with the retail & corporate lending book growing at 21% and 8%, respectively Tuesday, 17 th April,

2 Robust deposit growth to continue; CASA to witness further traction Deposits of the bank grew at a CAGR of 12% from FY14-FY17. Going forward, we expect the deposits to grow at a CAGR of 14% from Rs 66,117 crore in FY17 to Rs 98,392 crore in FY20. CASA deposits of the banks are expected to grow at a CAGR of 19% from FY17-FY20, whereby saving account deposits and current account deposits are expected to grow at CAGR of 18% & 25% respectively. The share of CASA deposits is set to improve from 23.8% in FY17 to 27% in FY20. Net Interest Income to grow on the back of advances growth and cost of funds Historically, net interest income of the bank has grown at a CAGR of 7% because of a slowdown in the growth of the overall advances portfolio. We expect the net interest income to grow at a CAGR of 18% from Rs 1,675 crore in FY17 to Rs 2,763 crore in FY20 due to increased focus on the retail book. Rising share of CASA deposits will help the bank curtail the cost of deposits and focus on a higher retail yielding book should boost the overall yield on advances resulting in improvement in net interest margins from 2.6% in FY17 to 2.8% by FY20. Improving asset quality is an added comfort Slippages of large corporate accounts dented the gross NPAs of the Bank as it deteriorated from 1.18% in FY14 to 2.42% in FY17 after scaling a high of 3.66% in FY16. Increased thrust on the retail lending along with focus on NPA recovery and upgradation of the NPA accounts have ensured that the there are no major slippages. After having exhausted the entire corporate watch list, we expect the slippages to mellow down to 1.4% by FY20 from the current levels of 3.9% in FY17. The gross NPAs and Net NPAs are expected to improve from 2.4% and 1.4% in FY17 to 2.2% and 1.3% in FY20 respectively. We are building in the Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) improving to 58% in FY20 from the current levels of ~40%. Valuation We re-initiate the coverage on South Indian Bank with a BUY recommendation and a Price Objective of 36 (target Adj P/BV multiple of 1.2x FY20) implying a potential upside of ~36%. At the CMP of 26.5, the stock is trading at an Adj P/BV of 0.9x FY20E respectively Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

3 Key investment highlights: Robust growth of the advances book with focus on retail and SME lending As demonstrated in the chart below, across cycles the Bank s advances growth has been in line with the growth in the system credit. With the system credit growth ranging between X the GDP growth, it is not unreasonable to expect that SIB will grow at an average of over 16% over the forecast period (till FY20) South Indian Bank s performance beats GDP growth & is in line with System growth Private Banks to grab market share from the PSU Banks Within the Indian banking sector, we prefer private sector banks (PSBs) over public-sector banks (PSUs) given that: PSB advances have grown at a faster pace as compared to PSUs leading to market share cannibalization PSBs share has increased from 11% of banking business pie in 1999 to 30% in Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

4 Faster growth of branch network pan India indicate that PSBs are well poised to cater to the large business opportunity Superior asset quality Adequate capital reserves Efficient operations coupled with superior asset quality, leads to meaningful internal generation thereby leading to healthy return ratios for shareholders and better valuations giving them the ability to raise capital at lower dilution Thus because of the above reasons we expect the private sector to grab the market share from the public sector banks at a mammoth pace and grow its share from 30% in 2017 to 44% in 2022 in the banking space. Loan Portfolio During FY , South Indian Bank witnessed a booming advances growth at CAGR of 25% pulled by its strategy to focus on corporate lending. However, with the NPA malaise plaguing the banking sector, profitability was adversely impacted. As a result, the management decided to scale back and consolidate the corporate lending book. With focus on cleaning up the stressed asset book, the loan book saw a marked slowdown by growing at 9% CAGR during the period from FY14-FY17 primarily driven by retail lending. This led to the corporate lending growth remaining flattish during FY14-FY17, reducing its share from 50% in FY14 to 38% in FY17. Meanwhile, the share of retail, SME and AGRI advances in the total loan book improved from 50% in FY14 to 62% in FY17 as it grew at a CAGR of 17% during this period from Rs 18,114 crore to Rs 28,761 crore in FY Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

5 Learning from the trend, SIB s plan to focus on retail lending has started shaping up well as the overall advance growth clocked 16% for the quarter ended December The bank seeks to achieve this sustained growth through expansion of its branch network by 150 branches Pan India, following a cluster based approach and focusing on building a granular portfolio. We expect the advance book to grow at a CAGR of 16% from Rs 46,389.5 crore in FY17 to Rs 72,810 crore in FY20 Loan Portfolio We expect the thrust to be on the retail lending, expanding the share of retail, SME and AGRI loans to 70% of the total book by FY20 at a CAGR of 21% from Rs 28,761 crore in FY17 to Rs 50,715 crore by FY20. On the other hand, we expect the wholesale book to experience a muted growth of 8% CAGR from Rs 17,636 crore in FY17 to Rs 22,094 crore in FY20 Break up of Portfolio Share of Retail and Corporate Loan book Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

6 Deposits growth to be driven by CASA Deposits of the bank grew at a CAGR of 12% from Rs 44,262 crore in FY14 to Rs 66,117 crore in FY17. Going forward, we expect the deposits to grow at a CAGR of 14% from Rs 66,117 crore in FY17 to Rs 98,392 crore in FY20. SIB is expected to add 25 branches every year in FY19 and FY20. This should help improve the CASA and the overall deposits growth. Deposits Branch Expansion ahead CASA deposits of the banks are expected to grow at a CAGR of 19% from Rs 15,746 crore in FY17 to Rs 26,565 crore in FY20. Saving deposits of the bank is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18% to Rs 21,253 crore and current account deposits are expected to grow at a CAGR of 25% to Rs 5,313 crore by FY20. The share of CASA deposits is set to improve from 23.8% in FY17 to 27% In FY20. CASA Break up CASA Ratio Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

7 Net Interest Income to mirror loan book growth Historically, net interest income of the bank has grown at a CAGR of 7% because of a slowdown in the growth of the overall advances portfolio. Focus on the retail loan book is set to bring back the lustrous growth rate that the bank witnessed prior the consolidation period of FY We expect the net interest income to grow at a CAGR of 18% from Rs 1,675 crore in FY17 to Rs 2,763 crore in FY20. Net Interest Income Quarterly trend Net Interest Income Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

8 Net Interest Margin to improve Net interest margins of the bank are set to rise on account of higher fall in the cost of deposits than that in the yield on advances. Rising share of CASA deposits will help the bank curtail the cost of deposits and focus on higher retail yielding book should boost the overall yield on advances. We expect the net interest margins tom improve from 2.6% in FY17 to 2.8% by FY20. Net Interest Margin Quarterly trend Net Interest Margin Annual Trend Yield on Advances and Cost of Deposits Quarterly trend Yield on Advances and Cost of Deposits Annual Trend Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

9 Cost to income ratio SIB s efforts to control the cost to income ratio have paid off as it improved from 52.7% in FY15 to 49.2% in FY17. The bank believes in improving efficiency of the branches rather than hiring new hands. Employees per branch ratio of the bank improved from 9.2 in FY15 to 8.2 employees per branch in FY17. We expect the cost to income ratio of the bank to improve from 49.2% in FY17 to 43.4% in FY20. Increasing digitalization and automation in the operations is set to augment the efficiency and improve the cost ratios. Cost to Income Ratio Quarterly trend Cost to Income Ratio Annual Trend Employee per branch Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

10 Other income to boost overall profitability SIB acts as a corporate agent for the distribution of insurance products of both M/s Life Insurance Corporation of India and M/s Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Company for life insurance and general insurance respectively. Macro headwinds & growing economy will lead to an upward interest rate cycle. This is expected to impact the treasury portfolio negatively. Other income comprising of transaction and technology fees, gains on sale of investments & forex and misc income is set to grow at a CAGR of 13% from Rs 716 crore in FY17 to Rs 1034 crore in FY20. Other Income Strengthening asset quality In the quest to grow at a higher rate, the bank on-boarded large corporate accounts and the loan portfolio of the bank was evenly distributed between corporate and retail advances in FY14. Slippages of such large corporate accounts dented the gross NPAs of the bank as it deteriorated from 1.18% in FY14 to 2.42% in FY17 after scaling high of 3.66% in FY16. Increased thrust on the retail lending along with focus on NPA recovery and upgradation of the NPA accounts have ensured that the there are no major slippages in the recent quarter. Even in FY18, GNPA and NNPA ratio has increased due to additional provisions made, amounting to Rs 252 crore for the loans sold to ARC s during FY17. Total stressed assets as a percentage of total advances stood at 2.83% as on December After having exhausted the entire corporate watch list, we expect the slippages to mellow down to 1.4% by FY20 from the current levels of 3.9% in FY17. The gross NPAs and Net NPAs Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

11 are expected to improve from 2.4% and 1.4% in FY17 to 2.2% and 1.3% in FY20, respectively. Asset Quality Peer comparison We are building in the Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) improving to 58% in FY20 from the current levels of ~40%. NNPA/Net Worth ratio is expected to deteriorate from 13.9 in FY17 to 15.1 in FY20 mainly because of the stress faced in FY18 where the ratio rose to about Post FY18, the ratio is expected to improve on the expectation of no new slippages and efficiency in operations to be witnessed by the bank. NNPA/Net Worth Ratio Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

12 Capital Adequacy With capital adequacy of 12.4% (Tier-I capital stood at 10.9%, while Tier-II capital stood at 1.5% in FY17), SIB is comfortably placed to support the future business needs during FY18-20E. The bank has issued Non-Convertible, Redeemable, Unsecured, Basel III Compliant Tier 2 Bonds for inclusion of Tier 2 capital aggregating Rs. 490 crores. The Bank has also decided to augment the paid-up capital by issue of up to 20 crore equity shares of FV of Re.1 each through QIP in the coming years. Capital Adequacy Return Ratio With the fortunes of the bank starting to turn around with healthy growth of advances and strong asset quality, we expect the return ratios to improve with ROA expanding from 0.6% in FY17 to 0.8% in FY20 and ROE from 9% in FY17 to 14%( rise of 500 bps) in FY20. Return Ratios Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

13 Financial Performance SIB s Q3FY18 result was driven by a revival in credit growth, which resulted in a healthy growth in net interest income. Asset quality has started to improve on the back of focused growth on the low-risk retail loans, continued reduction in net stressed assets and improving C/I ratio resulting in improved profitability. Advances of the bank grew 16% YoY to Rs. 52,449 crores as on December 2017, driven by 25% YoY increase in the retail loan book. Deposits grew 7.1% YoY as the CASA ratio reported by the bank was a tad higher at 24.9% as on December 2017 as compared to 24.6% as on September Net interest income of the bank grew at 22% YoY from Rs crore in Q3FY17 to Rs crore in Q3FY18. Profit after tax grew at a modest rate of 3.2% YoY from Rs crore in Q3FY17 to Rs 115 crore in Q3FY18. Asset quality improved as GNPA and NNPA fell from 3.57% and 2.57% to 3.40% & 2.35%, respectively. Financial Performance Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

14 Peer Comparison Peer Comparison Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

15 Valuation We re-initiate coverage on South Indian Bank with a BUY recommendation and a Price Objective of 36 (target Adj P/BV multiple of 1.2x FY20) implying a potential upside of ~36%. At the CMP of 26.5, the stock is trading at an Adj P/BV of 0.9x FY20E, respectively. 2 Yr EPS CAGR Vs Adj P/BV P/E Adj P/BV Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

16 Financials Y/E March (` crore) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Y/E March (` crore) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Income Statement Ratio Analysis Interest Income 5, , , , ,052.3 Efficiency Ratio (%) Interest Expense 4, , , , ,289.6 Int Expended / Int Earned Net Interest Income 1, , , , ,762.7 Int Income / Total Funds YoY change (%) NII / Total Income Non Interest Income ,034.8 Other Inc. / Total Income Total Net Income 2, , , , ,797.4 Ope. Exp. / Total Income Total Operating Expenses 1, , , , ,647.9 Net Profit / Total Funds Pre Provision profit , , , ,149.5 Credit / Deposit YoY change (%) Investment / Deposit Provisions for expenses , NIM Profit Before Tax ,275.8 YoY change (%) Solvency Taxes Gross NPA (Rs. Cr) 1, , , , ,608.6 Net profit Net NPA (Rs. Cr) 1, , , YoY change (%) Gross NPA (%) Net NPA (%) Balance Sheet Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) Cash & Balances with RBI 2, , , , ,317.7 Tier I Capital (%) Inter bank borrrowing , ,148.3 Tier II Capital (%) Investments 14, , , , ,019.5 Loan and Advances 41, , , , ,810.1 Per Share Data (`) Other Assets 4, , , , ,167.6 EPS Total Assets 63, , , , ,10,463.3 Dividend Per Share Deposits 55, , , , ,392.1 Book Value Demand 1, , , , ,313.2 Adjusted Book Value of Share Savings 10, , , , ,252.7 Term 43, , , , ,826.2 Valuation Ratio Borrowings 2, , , , ,443.7 Price/Earnings (x) Other Liability 1, , , , ,296.7 Price/Book Value (x) Equity Price/Adj.Book Value (x) Reserves 3, , , , ,147.6 Total Liabilities 63, , , , ,10,463.3 Return Ratio RoAA (%) Dupont Analysis RoAE (%) % of Average Assets Net Interest Income Growth Ratio (%) Non Interest Income Interest Income Net Income Interest Expenses Operating Expenses Other Income Operating Profit Total Income Provisions & Contingencies Net profit Taxes Deposits Avg.Assets / Avg.Equity (x) Advances Tuesday, 17 th April, 2018

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