Eastern & Oriental. Company Guide

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1 Version 5 Bloomberg: EAST MK Reuters: ENOB.KL Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Malaysia Equity Research 18 Nov 2016 FULLY VALUED Last Traded Price ( 17 Nov 2016): RM1.52 (KLCI : 1,626.77) Price Target 12-mth: RM1.20 (-21% downside) (Prev RM1.20) Shariah Compliant: Yes Where we differ: Lower earnings than consensus, contrarian call Analyst QUAH He Wei, CFA hewei@alliancedbs.com What s New 2QFY17 results met our expectation but missed consensus Weak demand for high-end properties to impact sales; earnings outlook remains subdued Maintain FULLY VALUED and RM1.20 TP Price Relative Headwinds ahead Weak sentiment for high-end properties. Given its niche focus as a high-end property developer, E&O s property sales may suffer from the weak sentiment in this market segment due to affordability issues. We also noticed that its inventory has increased substantially from RM73m in FY14 to RM537m as at end-sep 16, indicating much slower demand for luxury properties. E&O s property sales are likely to remain uninspiring in the near to medium term given the subdued outlook for the luxurious property market in Malaysia. Seri Tanjung Pinang 2 will only be launched in CY19. E&O has already awarded the STP2A reclamation contract for a lump sum contract of RM1.078bn in Jan 16. The job involves 384 acres of reclamation (including 131 acres along the Gurney Drive foreshore for state government) though this has been delayed for a year. Meanwhile, it is looking to secure a strategic partner for the project which could help alleviate the financing burden for E&O, which is expected to cost RM1.8bn (inclusive of infra). Meanwhile, its gearing is expected to remain elevated as reclamation works progress to more advanced stages. Earnings visibility anchored by RM980m unbilled sales despite headwinds faced by E&O for its high-end products. We understand that management will be focusing on selling its unsold inventory in 2HFY17 to lift its property new sales which stood at a mere RM152m in 1HFY17. Forecasts and Valuation FY Mar (RM m) 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Revenue EBITDA Pre-tax Profit Net Profit Net Pft (Pre Ex.) Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (60.0) (54.9) EPS (sen) EPS Pre Ex. (sen) EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (60) (55) Diluted EPS (sen) Net DPS (sen) BV Per Share (sen) PE (X) PE Pre Ex. (X) P/Cash Flow (X) nm 8.5 nm 9.4 EV/EBITDA (X) Net Div Yield (%) P/Book Value (X) Net Debt/Equity (X) ROAE (%) Earnings Rev (%): Consensus EPS (sen): Other Broker Recs: B: 2 S: 1 H: 5 Valuation: We maintain our TP of RM1.20, based on a 70% discount to our RNAV of RM3.90. The STP Phase 2A with 253 acres, which has a long gestation period, accounts for 47% of our RNAV. Key Risks to Our View: STP 2 reclamation requires heavy capital spending. At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,257 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 1,911 / 439 Major Shareholders (%) Sime Darby Berhad (%) 22.2 GK Goh Holdings Ltd (%) 7.9 Morning Crest Sdn Bhd (%) 7.3 Free Float (%) m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 0.18 ICB Industry : Real Estate / Real Estate Source of all data on this page: Company, AllianceDBS, Bloomberg Finance L.P Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report ed: CK / sa:bc

2 WHAT S NEW No catalyst in sight 2QFY17 results in line: Excluding exceptional items of RM0.7m losses, E&O reported a 2QFY17 core profit of RM4.5m. This takes 1HFY17 core earnings to 47% of our fullyear forecast, but only comprises 30% of consensus estimates. Lower property revenue recognition. E&O s 2QFY17 property revenue dipped 65% q-o-q and 12% y-o-y to RM48.6m, amounting to 61% of 2QFY17 revenue of RM79.3m (-51% q-o-q, -8% y-o-y). This is largely due to completion of the Andaman condominiums in Seri Tanjung Pinang 1 while The Tamarind is still in early stage of construction. This has also led to 62% q-o-q reduction in property EBIT to RM14.1m, implying 29% property EBIT margin. Meanwhile, hospitality segmental revenue rose 17% q-o-q and 1% y-o-y to RM30m. Its business turned around with RM2.6m EBIT in 2QFY17 from RM1.3m operating loss in 1QFY17. Slow sales in 2QFY17. E&O booked 2QFY17 property sales of RM37m (-68% q-o-q, -26% y-o-y), taking 1HFY17 sales to RM152m (-76% y-o-y). Therefore, unbilled sales (inclusive of minorities) dropped to RM980m (vs RM1.03bn in Jun 16). We understand that E&O will only launch Ariza Seafront Terraces in Seri Tanjung Pinang 1 worth RM85m GDV while focusing on clearing its record-high inventory of RM537m, largely attributable to its completed units in the Andaman condominiums. Meanwhile, the launch of its RM800m Conlay project (70:30 JV between E&O and Mitsui Fudosan) will now be deferred to FY18. Net gearing remains elevated. E&O s net gearing stood at 78% as at end-sep 16 as the listing plan of its UK arm, which was earlier expected to pare down its net gearing level to ~55%, has been shelved. We expect its gearing to increase further as it draws down its financing facility to fund the STP2A reclamation works. Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (RMm) FY Mar 2Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017 % chg yoy % chg qoq Revenue (7.5) (51.5) Cost of Goods Sold (81.2) (128) (65.7) (19.0) (48.8) Gross Profit (61.1) Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (5.0) (4.8) (4.7) (6.0) (2.9) Operating Profit (0.5) nm (70.5) Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc nm nm Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (14.5) (12.0) (13.3) 8.0 (11.1) Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 30.2 (11.2) (0.7) nm 93.7 Pre-tax Profit (75.5) (39.0) Tax (2.1) (6.8) (2.6) 27.0 (61.3) Minority Interest 0.11 (0.6) 0.0 nm (97.7) Net Profit (84.3) 18.4 Net profit bef Except. (5.8) nm (68.5) EBITDA (34.7) Margins (%) Gross Margins Opg Profit Margins (0.5) Net Profit Margins Source of all data: Company, AllianceDBS Page 2

3 CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH Earnings Drivers: Headwinds ahead. Given the weak sentiment in the property market, E&O could face a hard time selling its high-end properties which have always been its focus. This is evident in its high inventory level of completed properties which rose to c.rm537m as at Sep 16 from RM73m in Mar 14. We believe that the high-end segment, especially those with ASP in excess of RM1m/unit will face much slower sales going forward due to concerns of affordability and potential supply glut. Property sales (RMm) Revenue (RMm) Shift to more affordably priced properties. E&O secured RM1.1bn property sales in FY16, mainly underpinned by the overwhelming response for The Tamarind executive apartment project, worth RM900m in GDV terms, which has been marketed as affordable apartments in the luxurious STP. Nevertheless, the project will only be completed by 2019, lowering its earnings impact in the near term. Unbilled sales of RM980m. This is mainly due to its Klang Valley and Penang projects which will likely provide earnings visibility for the next two years. However, earnings growth may be subdued as some of its key projects including The Mews@KLCC and Avira@Medini are only recognised under its JVs. Upcoming launches such as Avira Garden Terraces phase 2 may not fare well given the poor sentiment within Iskandar Malaysia. Long-awaited STP 2 reclamation contract. After a delay of one year, E&O has secured its STP 2A reclamation contractor involving 384 acres of reclamation (including 131 acres along Gurney Drive foreshore for state government). Also, E&O is expected to rope in a long-term strategic partner for its STP 2A s 253 acres project in the near term, given the high capital requirement for the massive reclamation works. While the STP 2A s land bank is set to be its jewel in the crown, it may take a few years before the first launch is rolled out. EBIT (RMm) EBIT margin (%) UK arm is a long-term development. The listing of its UK property arm on AIM of the London Stock Exchange has been aborted due to unfavourable market conditions. While its UK venture is long-term positive for E&O to diversify beyond Malaysia, the high London property prices could result in lacklustre sales. Page 3

4 Balance Sheet: Net gearing stood at 78% as at end-sep 16 due to its UK land bank acquisition. Cash flow management is critical given its huge capex requirement for STP2A reclamation which is underway. Share Price Drivers: Stronger-than-expected sales. E&O needs a strong launch pipeline in order to sustain its sales momentum which is facing challenges given the weak sentiment among property buyers. It may have to allocate more resources to focus on relatively affordable properties which are still well-received in the Malaysian market. Leverage & Asset Turnover (x) Capital Expenditure Key Risks: Weak sentiment. The poor sentiment among property buyers could lead to sluggish group sales. Heavy capex. STP 2 reclamation requires heavy capital spending given the huge area involved. A strategic partner for STP2A project will help ease the funding pressure significantly. Company Background E&O is a niche high-end residential developer with land banks in Penang (among largest landowners on the island), KL (near KLCC, Damansara Heights, Kemensah Heights), Iskandar Malaysia (Medini) and London (small exposure). ROE (%) Forward PE Band (x) PB Band (x) Page 4

5 Key Assumptions Property sales (RMm) 667 1, Revenue (RMm) EBIT (RMm) EBIT margin (%) Segmental Breakdown Revenues (RMm) Property development Construction Hotel operations Property investment & others Total EBIT (RMm) Property development Construction Hotel operations Property investment & others 103 (29.6) Others (152) (21.8) (12.0) (12.0) (8.0) Total EBIT Margins (%) Property development Construction N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Hotel operations Property investment & others 2,435.1 (856.9) Total Income Statement (RMm) Revenue Cost of Goods Sold (318) (359) (363) (420) (376) Gross Profit Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (20.8) (20.3) (20.1) (36.9) (52.7) Operating Profit Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (35.5) (52.5) (65.3) (68.9) (79.4) Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Pre-tax Profit Tax (45.5) (15.9) (7.3) (8.3) (4.1) Minority Interest (4.6) (1.6) (5.5) (2.4) (1.1) Preference Dividend Net Profit Net Profit before Except EBITDA Growth Revenue Gth (%) (9.6) (6.3) (6.0) EBITDA Gth (%) (22.5) (26.8) (2.4) Opg Profit Gth (%) (26.9) (61.7) (5.1) Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (48.1) (60.0) (54.9) Margins & Ratio Gross Margins (%) Opg Profit Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) ROAE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) Div Payout Ratio (%) Net Interest Cover (x) Minimal contribution from hotel operations Underpinned by Avira Garden Terraces and The Mews Page 5

6 Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (RMm) FY Mar 2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017 Revenue Cost of Goods Sold (81.2) (95.1) (117) (128) (65.7) Gross Profit Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (5.0) (5.2) (4.9) (4.8) (4.7) Operating Profit (0.5) Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (14.5) (12.5) (12.1) (12.0) (13.3) Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 30.2 (4.3) (19.1) (11.2) (0.7) Pre-tax Profit (0.5) Tax (2.1) 0.60 (13.2) (6.8) (2.6) Minority Interest 0.11 (0.5) (1.2) (0.6) 0.0 Net Profit (14.8) Net profit bef Except. (5.8) EBITDA Underpinned by unbilled sales Growth Revenue Gth (%) (51.5) EBITDA Gth (%) (44.4) (34.7) Opg Profit Gth (%) 74.9 nm (70.5) Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) nm nm (47.5) (68.5) Margins Gross Margins (%) Opg Profit Margins (%) (0.5) Net Profit Margins (%) (9.9) Balance Sheet (RMm) Net Fixed Assets ,125 Invts in Associates & JVs Other LT Assets 889 1,606 1,606 1,606 1,606 Cash & ST Invts Inventory Debtors Other Current Assets 1,111 1,166 1,030 1,433 1,312 Total Assets 3,066 3,759 4,140 4,508 4,813 ST Debt Creditor Other Current Liab LT Debt 710 1,315 1,615 1,915 2,215 Other LT Liabilities Shareholder s Equity 1,600 1,639 1,671 1,706 1,721 Minority Interests Total Cap. & Liab. 3,066 3,759 4,140 4,508 4,813 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 1,347 1,303 1,121 1,539 1,402 Net Cash/(Debt) (963) (1,270) (1,356) (2,024) (2,127) Debtors Turn (avg days) Creditors Turn (avg days) Inventory Turn (avg days) Asset Turnover (x) Current Ratio (x) Quick Ratio (x) Net Debt/Equity (X) Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) Capex to Debt (%) Z-Score (X) Expect gearing to increase due to STP phase 2A reclamation works Page 6

7 Cash Flow Statement (RMm) Pre-Tax Profit Dep. & Amort Tax Paid (49.9) (39.9) (7.3) (8.3) (4.1) Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (12.8) (42.8) (25.3) (23.7) (9.2) Chg in Wkg.Cap. (662) (165) 182 (418) 137 Other Operating CF (87.5) (26.5) Net Operating CF (589) (199) 223 (358) 202 Capital Exp.(net) (11.5) (7.2) (300) (300) (300) Other Invts.(net) 22.2 (87.7) Invts in Assoc. & JV Div from Assoc & JV Other Investing CF Net Investing CF 110 (61.6) (300) (300) (300) Div Paid (33.4) 0.0 (9.0) (10.0) (4.5) Chg in Gross Debt Capital Issues Other Financing CF (0.9) (0.8) Net Financing CF Currency Adjustments Chg in Cash (77.4) (368) 197 Opg CFPS (sen) 5.86 (2.8) Free CFPS (sen) (48.0) (16.5) (6.2) (52.7) (7.9) Target Price & Ratings History Source: AllianceDBS Analyst: QUAH He Wei, CFA Page 7

8 DISCLOSURE Stock rating definitions STRONG BUY - > 20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame BUY - > 15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps HOLD - -10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps FULLY VALUED - negative total return > -10% over the next 12 months SELL - negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame Commonly used abbreviations Adex = advertising expenditure EPS = earnings per share PBT = profit before tax bn = billion EV = enterprise value P/B = price / book ratio BV = book value FCF = free cash flow P/E = price / earnings ratio CF = cash flow FV = fair value PEG = P/E ratio to growth ratio CAGR = compounded annual growth rate FY = financial year q-o-q = quarter-on-quarter Capex = capital expenditure m = million RM = Ringgit CY = calendar year M-o-m = month-on-month ROA = return on assets Div yld = dividend yield NAV = net assets value ROE = return on equity DCF = discounted cash flow NM = not meaningful TP = target price DDM = dividend discount model NTA = net tangible assets trn = trillion DPS = dividend per share NR = not rated WACC = weighted average cost of capital EBIT = earnings before interest & tax p.a. = per annum y-o-y = year-on-year EBITDA = EBIT before depreciation and amortisation PAT = profit after tax YTD = year-to-date Page 8

9 DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared for information purposes only by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ( ADBSR ), a subsidiary of Alliance Investment Bank Berhad ( AIBB ) and an associate of DBS Vickers Securities Holdings Pte Ltd ( DBSVH ). DBSVH is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Bank Ltd. This report is strictly confidential and is meant for circulation to clients of ADBSR, AIBB and DBSVH only or such persons as may be deemed eligible to receive such research report, information or opinion contained herein. Receipt and review of this report indicate your agreement not to distribute, reproduce or disclose in any other form or medium (whether electronic or otherwise) the contents, views, information or opinions contained herein without the prior written consent of ADBSR. This report is based on data and information obtained from various sources believed to be reliable at the time of issuance of this report and any opinion expressed herein is subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by ADBSR s affiliates and/or related parties. ADBSR does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty (whether express or implied) as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness of the data and information obtained from such sources as may be contained in this report. As such, neither ADBSR nor its affiliates and/or related parties shall be held liable or responsible in any manner whatsoever arising out of or in connection with the reliance and usage of such data and information or third party references as may be made in this report (including, but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages). The views expressed in this report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. ADBSR prohibits the analyst(s) who prepared this report from receiving any compensation, incentive or bonus based on specific investment banking transactions or providing a specific recommendation for, or view of, a particular company. This research report provides general information only and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other investments or any options, futures, derivatives or other instruments related to such securities or investments. In particular, it is highlighted that this report is not intended for nor does it have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors are therefore advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situations and particular needs and consult their own professional advisers (including but not limited to financial, legal and tax advisers) regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investments that may be featured in this report. ADBSR, AIBB, DBSVH and DBS Bank Ltd, their directors, representatives and employees or any of their affiliates or their related parties may, from time to time, have an interest in the securities mentioned in this report. AIBB, DBSVH and DBS Bank Ltd, their affiliates and/or their related persons may do and/or seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell or buy such securities from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform significant investment banking, advisory or underwriting services for or relating to such company(ies) as well as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this report. AIBB, DBSVH, DBS Bank Ltd (which carries on, inter alia, corporate finance activities) and their activities are separate from ADBSR. AIBB, DBSVH and DBS Bank Ltd may have no input into company-specific coverage decisions (i.e. whether or not to initiate or terminate coverage of a particular company or securities in reports produced by ADBSR) and ADBSR does not take into account investment banking revenues or potential revenues when making company-specific coverage decisions. ADBSR, AIBB, DBSVH, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ( DBSVUSA ), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company mentioned in this report. ADBSR, AIBB, DBSVH, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA may, within the past 12 months, have received compensation and/or within the next 3 months seek to obtain compensation for investment banking services from the subject company. DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this report should contact DBSVUSA exclusively. DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd is an authorised person in the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Research distributed in the UK is intended only for institutional clients. In reviewing this report, an investor should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additional information is, subject to the overriding issue of confidentiality, available upon request to enable an investor to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained herein. Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director Published by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ( U) 19th Floor, Menara Multi-Purpose, Capital Square, 8 Jalan Munshi Abdullah, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Tel.: Fax: general@alliancedbs.com Page 9

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