BASF Capital Market Story

Transcription

1 Dr. Martin Brudermüller Vice Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors; Chief Technology Officer Société Générale Premium Review Paris November 30, 2016 BASF Capital Market Story BASF Capital Market Story, November

2 Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements 150 years This presentation may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realized from the proposals described herein. Forward-looking statements may include, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation and supply and demand. BASF has based these forwardlooking statements on its views and assumptions with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual financial performance could differ materially from that projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and BASF does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations. BASF Capital Market Story, November

3 We create chemistry for a sustainable future 150 years Positioning Performance Perspective Geismar, Louisiana Freeport, Texas Ludwigshafen, Germany Antwerp, Belgium Nanjing, China Kuantan, Malaysia Verbund site The #1 chemical company 70.4 billion sales, 6.7 billion EBIT bsi in 2015 #1-3 in ~70% of businesses, present in almost all countries 6 integrated Verbund sites, production in 60 countries A track record of strong sales and earnings growth >3.5% dividend yield in every single year from ~ 73.6 billion market capitalization on October 27, 2016 Chemistry as an enabler BASF has superior growth opportunities: sustainable innovations investments emerging markets BASF Capital Market Story, November

4 150 years BASF today a well-balanced portfolio Total sales 2015: 70.4 billion Percentage of sales 2015* * Not depicted here: ~4% of Group sales reported as Other ** Natural Gas Trading has been divested on Sep. 30, BASF Capital Market Story, November

5 150 years Verbund: Unique competitive advantage Verbund generates > 1 billion p.a. global cost savings* and supports sustainability Global reduction in carbon emissions of 6 million metric tons p.a. and reduction of waste Example Ludwigshafen site: avoidance of 7 million metric tons of freight p.a. = 280,000 fewer truckloads Shared use of on-site facilities: fire department, security, waste water treatment and analytics BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 * Savings include only tangible synergies. Additional (intangible) benefits and retained profits are not included. 5

6 150 years Q3 2016: Financial figures for BASF Group Financial figures Q Q Change Sales 14.0 billion 17.4 billion (20%) EBITDA 2.4 billion 2.9 billion (15%) EBIT before special items 1.5 billion 1.6 billion (5%) EBIT 1.5 billion 1.9 billion (22%) Net income 0.9 billion 1.2 billion (27%) Reported EPS (26%) Adjusted EPS % Operating cash flow 2.5 billion 3.4 billion (25%) Sales development Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies Q vs. Q % (5%) (18%) (1%) BASF Capital Market Story, November

7 150 years Free cash flow development Free cash flow* (in billion ) ** Q1-Q * Cash provided by operating activities less capex BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 ** 2009 adjusted for re-classification of settlement payments for currency derivatives 7

8 150 years Outlook 2016 for BASF Group confirmed Assumptions 2016 GDP growth: +2.3% Growth in industrial production: +2.0% Growth in chemical production*: +3.4% Exchange rate: $1.10 per euro Oil price (Brent): $45 per barrel (previous forecast: $40 per barrel) Outlook 2016 Sales will be considerably below prior year due to the divestiture of the natural gas trading and storage activities and the lower oil and gas prices. We expect EBIT before special items to be slightly below the previous year level due to significantly lower earnings in Oil & Gas. * Excluding pharma BASF Capital Market Story, November

9 Business development Path forward: Our priorities Appendix Q reporting BASF Capital Market Story, November

10 150 years Components of growth Sales* analysis (in billion ) CAGR Volumes 3.4% Prices FX M&A (in billion ) Net sales 2010 Volumes Prices FX M&A BASF Group w/o Oil & Gas 51.4 Oil & Gas (+1.1% CAGR) +7.7 (+14.2% CAGR) Sales CAGR % % BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 * 2010, 2011 indicative, adjusted for IFRS 10 & 11 10

11 Portfolio development towards more market-driven and innovative businesses 150 years Acquisitions Functional crop care Personal care & food Omega-3 fatty acids Enzymes Battery materials Specialty plastics Selected assets in Oil & Gas Refinish coatings Surface treatment* ~ 5.2 billion sales in emerging and innovation-driven businesses BASF core business Selected transactions 2010 until today Strong partnerships Gazprom Monsanto Petronas Shell Sinopec Statoil Total Yara Styrenics Fertilizers Divestitures Selected assets in Oil & Gas Natural gas trading & storage Custom synthesis business Textile chemicals Polyolefin catalysts Industrial coatings* ~ 20 billion sales in businesses with limited fit and differentiation potential BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 * Closing expected in

12 150 years Steady earnings growth EBIT and EBITDA* (in billion, ) CAGR EBIT 16.6% CAGR EBITDA % Q1-Q EBITDA EBIT BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 * 2010, 2011 indicative, adjusted for IFRS 10 & 11; as reported, without non-compensable foreign income taxes on oil production 12

13 Strong track record in operational excellence 150 years BASF Group* (indexed; CAGR ) CAGR EBITDA 9% CAGR Sales 6% EBITDA Sales CAGR Fixed Costs 3% Fixed Costs BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 * Excl. companies with major IFRS 10/11 restatements, i.e. BASF YPC Nanjing, Libya onshore, other Oil & Gas and Catalysts companies 13

14 150 years Attractive shareholder return Dividend per share ( ) Dividend policy We want to grow or at least maintain our dividend at the previous year s level Key facts 2015 Dividend of 2.90 per share, an increase of 3.6% Dividend yield of 4.1% in 2015 Dividend yield above 3.5% in any given year since 2006 Yield* 4.1% 3.8% 7.0% 3.9% 3.7% 4.6% 3.7% * Dividend yield based on share price at year-end 3.5% 4.0% 4.1% BASF Capital Market Story, November

15 150 years Delivering consistent, long-term value Average annual performance with dividends reinvested Last 10 years November 2006 October 2016 Last 5 years November 2011 October % BASF +12.5% +0.4% Euro Stoxx % +5.5% DAX % +6.9% MSCI World Chemicals +9.9% BASF Capital Market Story, November

16 Business development Path forward: Our priorities Appendix Q reporting BASF Capital Market Story, November

17 The path forward: Our priorities 150 years Grow sales and earnings faster than global chemical production, driven by Continued focus on innovations Capital expenditures Acquisitions Operational excellence and Verbund advantages Focus on cash generation/conversion Continue with our progressive dividend policy Focus on pruning our portfolio Maintain industry-leading position in sustainability BASF Capital Market Story, November

18 Chemicals with stable profitability, little correlation to oil price 150 years EBITDA margin Chemicals / oil price (indexed, 2001 = 100) Oil price EBITDA margin Chemicals (as % of sales) * 2007* Q1-Q3 restated 2016 BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 * Without Catalysts (now part of Functional Materials & Solutions segment) 18

19 Strategic lever: Continuous portfolio development 150 years Growth fields Innovation pipeline Specialties and solutions Attractive markets Differentiation by customer proximity and innovations Differentiated commodities Attractive markets Differentiation by process technologies and integration ~ 50% ~ 50% target (in % of sales*) Acquisitions Divestment of businesses, e.g., due to lower market attractiveness Commoditization leads to restructuring Divestment of businesses, e.g., due to loss of differentiation Maintaining a balanced portfolio BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 * Excluding Oil & Gas sales 19

20 Strategic lever: Acquisitions 150 years We want to acquire businesses which Generate profitable growth above the industry average Are innovation-driven Offer a special value proposition to customers Provide a return on investment above the WACC Are EPS accretive by year three at the latest Reduce earnings cyclicality Strategic acquisition criteria Financial acquisition criteria BASF Capital Market Story, November

21 BASF to acquire Chemetall Transaction highlights 150 years Chemetall a global technology and innovation leader in metals surface treatment Purchase price of US$3.2 billion (debt free) All-cash offer, financing secured Expected closing of transaction by the end of 2016 Transaction will significantly enhance BASF Coatings position as complete solutions provider Synergies on industry-typical level EPS accretive in year 1 excluding integration costs, in year 2 including integration costs BASF Capital Market Story, November

22 Chemetall a global leader in surface treatment products and services 150 years Facts Figures One of the strongest globally managed brands in the sector Proprietary manufacturing technologies, rigorous product quality and performance standards Leading market positions in the automotive, aerospace and cold forming segments Long-standing, service-intensive customer relationships Significant global presence and record of accelerated expansion in emerging markets Track record of strong growth and high profitability BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 * average analysts estimates 22 Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin CAGR sales ( ) Key customer industries Regional sales Employees Sites 2015: US$845 million 2016E*: US$851 million 2017E*: US$895 million 2015: US$202 million 2016E*: US$217 million 2017E*: US$231 million 2015: 24% 2016E*: 25% 2017E*: 26% ~7% (at constant exchange rates) Automotive, aerospace, coil, metal forming ~50% Western Europe ~30% North America ~20% Emerging markets, mainly Asia ~2,500 (~50% sales professionals) 21 production sites in all regions 10 R&D sites

23 Strategic lever: Capital expenditures 150 years Differentiated commodities With proprietary technology and/or Verbund advantages Focus on: emerging markets backward integration in the U.S. upgrading our asset base in Europe Specialties and solutions Incremental investments for new products Regional expansion of businesses Oil & Gas Focus investment budget by active portfolio optimization to secure free cash flow Keep reserve-to-production ratio of approx. 10 years BASF Capital Market Story, November

24 150 years Investments for organic growth Capex budget by segment Capex budget by region Performance Products 16% Functional Materials & Solutions 12% Agricultural Solutions 4% Other 14% 19.5 billion Chemicals 30% Oil & Gas 24% Asia Pacific 18% South America* 9% Other 1% North America 26% 19.5 billion Europe 46% * Including Africa and Middle East BASF Capital Market Story, November

25 Strategic lever: Innovations 150 years Allow for creativity Balance incremental und disruptive innovations Manage innovation pipeline efficiently on all levels Build on our global R&D Verbund Leverage external collaborations even more Align R&D activities with business models: Differentiated commodities Focus on improving processes and addressing raw material change Launch selected product innovations Specialties and solutions Develop new, tailored offerings in close collaboration with customers Pursue solution-oriented approach Keep annual R&D spending at ~3% of sales* BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 * Without Oil & Gas 25

26 150 years Strong commitment to innovation Innovations for a sustainable future R&D expenditures (billion ) Corporate Research 21% Oil & Gas 2% Agricultural Solutions 26% Functional Mat. & Sol. 20% Performance Products 20% Chemicals 11% Key facts 1.95 billion R&D expenditures in 2015; to be maintained in 2016 ~10,000 employees in R&D ~3,000 projects Ranked No.1 in the Patent Asset Index ~1,000 new patents in 2015 Research Verbund: Cooperations with more than 600 excellent partners from universities, start-ups and industry BASF Capital Market Story, November

27 Hyundai Motor and BASF showcase joint development of RN30 concept car 150 years Body coating: Color Pro IC waterborne basecoat and igloss clearcoat Fender and spoiler: Elastolit rigid foam and reaction injection molding systems Seat cover and steering wheel: unique surface technology valure Electronics and electric: Ultramid advanced plastics for sophisticated components BASF Capital Market Story, November

28 Strategic lever: Sustainability Sustainable Solution Steering 150 years 71.0% 26.6% Sustainable Solution Steering 2.2% 0.2% Substantial sustainability contribution in the value chain Meets basic sustainability standards in the market Specific sustainability issue which is actively addressed Significant sustainability concern, action plan in development Novel methodology to screen and steer our portfolio* 26.6% Accelerators: outgrow their markets by 2-10% deliver margins >10% above the average represent >60% of BASF s R&D pipeline 71% Performers <1% Challenged products Increase the share of Accelerators from 23% in 2014 to 28% by 2020 BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 * More than 60,000 product applications analyzed representing 64.9 billion in sales or 95.4% of BASF s portfolio. 28

29 150 years Solutions for a sustainable future SLENTITE high-performance insulation material Trilon M high-performance phosphate alternative Acronal MB from biomass to dispersions ecovio biodegradable polymer solution Green Sense resource efficient concrete production Four-Way Conversion Catalyst removes particulates BASF Capital Market Story, November

30 150 years Sustainability goals Overview Procurement Goal Product stewardship Goal Sustainability performance assessment of relevant suppliers 70% 31% Risk assessment of products 2) >99% 67.8% Employees Goal Women in leadership positions 22-24% 19.5% Long-term goal 2015 Non-German senior executives 35.6% Senior executives with international experience >80% 82.9% Production Goal Process safety incidents 1) Lost-time injury rate 1) Energy & climate protection Goal Greenhouse gas emissions 3) -40% -34.6% Introduction of ISO energy management system 4) 90% 39.5% Water Goal Sustainable water management at Verbund sites and water stress areas 100% 36.2% Products & Solutions Goal Proportion of Accelerators 5) in product portfolio 28% 26.6% Annual goal 2015 Health Performance Index > ) per one million working hours 2) for products >1 metric ton per year 3) per metric ton of sales products; excl. Oil & Gas, baseline ) at all relevant sites (primary energy demand, local energy prices) 5) products with substantial contribution to sustainability BASF Capital Market Story, November

31 150 years Ludwigshafen site Sustainably maintaining the basis million 1,700 1,500 Maintenance, replacement, retrofitting, modernization 1,300 1, * Forecast BASF Capital Market Story, November

32 150 years Safety Continual improvement in operational safety Work-related accidents Lost-time injury rate per 1 million working hours BASF SE Safety has top priority at BASF Significantly fewer work-related accidents than the average in the chemical industry in Germany* Same safety standards for the partner companies of BASF Regular audits and inspections Jan.-Sep. BASF Capital Market Story, November 2016 * Source: BG RCI 32

33 Strategic lever: Operational excellence DrivE with ~ 1 billion earnings contribution 150 years Annual earnings contribution (in million ) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 DrivE program Targeted annual earnings contribution of 1 billion from end of 2018 on Optimization of processes and structures in all regions, e.g. manufacturing incremental capacities productivity increase Project timeline: NEXT DrivE STEP BASF Capital Market Story, November

34 Profitability of BASF will grow faster than global chemical production 150 years Financial targets for the coming years Sales growth Slightly faster than the global chemical production EBITDA growth Well above global chemical production Deliver attractive returns Earn a significant premium on cost of capital Remain a strong cash provider Continuously generate high levels of free cash flow Progressive dividend policy We want to grow or at least maintain our dividend BASF Capital Market Story, November

35 Business development Path forward: Our priorities Appendix Q reporting BASF Capital Market Story, November

36 Chemicals Higher volumes, but margin pressure in Petrochemicals and Intermediates 150 years Sales Q vs. Q million EBIT before special items million Intermediates 662 (6%) Monomers 1,405 (8%) 3,377 (7%) Petrochemicals 1,310 (7%) Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Sales development Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies Q vs. Q % (12%) 0% 0% BASF Capital Market Story, November

37 Performance Products Significant increase in earnings driven by higher volumes, improved margins and lower fixed costs 150 years Sales Q vs. Q million EBIT before special items million Performance Chemicals 945 (6%) Nutrition & Health % 3,771 (3%) Dispersions & Pigments 1,147 (2%) Care Chemicals 1,175 (4%) Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Sales development Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies Q vs. Q % (3%) (2%) 0% BASF Capital Market Story, November

38 Functional Materials & Solutions Significantly higher earnings on continued good demand in automotive and construction as well as lower fixed costs 150 years Sales Q vs. Q million EBIT before special items million Performance Materials 1,712 +2% Coatings % 4,660 3% Catalysts 1,552 +5% Construction Chemicals 606 (1%) Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Sales development Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies Q vs. Q % (3%) (1%) (1%) BASF Capital Market Story, November

39 Agricultural Solutions Significantly higher earnings due to improved margins and lower fixed costs 150 years Sales Q vs. Q million 1,200 1, ,077 1,049 (3%) Q3 Q3 EBIT before special items million Q3 90 million 97 Q Sales development Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies Q vs. Q (4%) 0% 0% 1% BASF Capital Market Story, November

40 Oil & Gas Considerably lower sales and earnings due to disposal of gas trading business as well as lower prices 150 years Sales Q vs. Q million EBIT before special items, net income million 5,000 4,000 3, , (83%) ,000 1, ,939 Q3 618* Q * Q Q Q Q * Including transportation business * Including transportation business Exploration & Production Exploration & Production Natural Gas Trading Natural Gas Trading Net income Sales development Volumes Prices/Currencies Portfolio Q vs. Q % (3%) (83%) BASF Capital Market Story, November

41 150 years Review of Other million Q Q Sales EBIT before special items (233) (98) Thereof Corporate research costs (77) (104) Costs of corporate headquarters (54) (53) Foreign currency results, hedging and other valuation effects (101) 22 Other businesses Special items (23) 26 EBIT (256) (72) BASF Capital Market Story, November

42 150 years Cash flow Q1 Q million Q1 Q Q1 Q Cash provided by operating activities 5,840 8,494 Thereof changes in net working capital (393) 2,500 miscellaneous items (172) (497) Cash used in investing activities (2,776) (4,955) Thereof payments related to tangible / intangible assets (2,915) (4,387) acquisitions / divestitures Cash used in financing activities (1,898) (3,504) Thereof changes in financial liabilities 837 (649) dividends (2,753) (2,900) BASF Capital Market Story, November

43 150 years Strong balance sheet Balance sheet September 30, 2016 vs. December 31, 2015 billion Long-term assets Inventories Accounts receivable Other assets Liquid funds Dec Sep Dec Sep Equity Financial debt Other liabilities Total assets increased by 2.3 billion, mainly due to higher liquid funds Inventories were stable Provisions for pensions and similar obligations increased by 3.6 billion Net debt declined by around 600 million to 12.3 billion Equity ratio: 41% BASF Capital Market Story, November

44 150 years BASF Capital Market Story, November