Padini Holdings. Company Guide. HOLD (Downgrade from Buy) : 5,122.10) Price Target 12-mth. Not everything fits well

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1 Version 7 Bloomberg: PAD MK Reuters: PDNI.KL Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Malaysia Equity Research 28 Nov 2016 HOLD (Downgrade from Buy) Last Traded Price ( 25 Nov 2016): RM2.82 (JCI : 5,122.10) Price Target 12-mth mth: RM2.95 (4% upside) (Prev RM2.95) Shariah Compliant: Yes Potential Catalyst: Stronger than exepected SSSG Where we differ: In line with consensus Analyst King Yoong CHEAH cheahky@alliancedbs.com Not everything fits well Getting pricey now. We downgrade our recommendation for (Padini) to HOLD. We are taking a more cautious stance on the stock as we view that the group s stellar share price performance and its current valuation have priced in its near term growth prospects. Furthermore, its profit margin may continue to be under pressure due to the weak Ringgit. As such, we view the stock to be fairly valued at this juncture. What s New 1QFY17 earnings below expectations, dragged by sharp decline in margins Margins could continue to be under pressure due to weak Ringgit Downgrade to HOLD with RM2.95 TP Price Relative Forecasts and Valuation FY Jun (RM m) 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Revenue 978 1,301 1,412 1,476 EBITDA Pre-tax Profit Net Profit Net Pft (Pre Ex.) Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (11.8) EPS (sen) EPS Pre Ex. (sen) EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (12) Diluted EPS (sen) Net DPS (sen) BV Per Share (sen) PE (X) PE Pre Ex. (X) P/Cash Flow (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Net Div Yield (%) P/Book Value (X) Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH ROAE (%) Earnings Rev (%): Consensus EPS (sen sen): N/A Other Broker Recs: B: 7 S: 0 H: 4 Source of all data on this page: Company, AllianceDBS, Bloomberg Finance L.P Not a fashionable quarter. Despite strong topline growth (+15% y-o-y), the group reported unexciting 1QFY17 earnings of RM28m (-10.1% y-o-y), only meeting 19% of our/consensus full year forecasts. The uninspiring results were mainly dragged by lower than expected gross profit margin due to (1) sales promotions, and, (2) more expensive merchandise brought in. We are maintaining our earnings forecasts for now, pending our upcoming meeting with management. GP margin could continue to come under pressure due to weak Ringgit. The group sources about 70% of its products from China, denominated in RMB, and the remainder mainly in USD. As such, the ringgit s persistent weakness against both currencies could continue to increase its inventory cost and put downward pressure on its margins in the coming quarters. Valuation: The stock has performed remarkably well, with its share price rising >100% since our upgrade in August In view of its strong share price performance and downside risk to its margins, we believe the group s current valuation has priced in its near term growth prospects. We downgrade our recommendation to HOLD with an unchanged RM2.95 TP pegged to 12x forward PE. Key Risks to Our View: Weaker-than-expected consumer spending and increasingly competitive industry landscape. At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 658 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 1,855 / 416 Major Shareholders (%) Yong Pang Chaun Holdings Sdn Bhd 43.7 Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera 5.0 icapital.biz 3.5 Free Float (%) m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 0.42 ICB Industry : Consumer Goods / Personal Goods Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report ed: BC / sa: BC

2 WHAT S NEW Not a fashionable quarter Below expectations. Despite strong topline growth (+15% y- o-y), the group reported unexciting 1QFY17 earnings of RM28m (-10.1% y-o-y), only meeting 19% of our/consensus full year forecasts. The uninspiring results were mainly dragged by lower than expected gross profit margin. We believe that the q-o-q review does not serve as a good comparison as Padini s previous quarter was boosted by pre- Raya festive sales. Topline- still strong... The strong revenue growth y-o-y was mainly driven by (1) strong sales growth in existing stores supported by its mix & match bundling and one piece promotional strategies, and (2) additional 5 Padini Concept Store outlets and 9 Brands Outlet stores in operation compared with 1QFY16..but GP G P margin weakened significantly. Nonetheless, gross profit (GP) margin fell from 46% in 1QFY16 to 41% in 1QFY17, mainly dragged by (1) sales promotions, and (2) more expensive merchandise brought in. GP margin could continue to come under pressure due to persistent Ringgit weakness. The group sources about 70% of its products from China, which are denominated in RMB, and the remainder mainly in USD. As such, the ringgit s persistent weakness against both currencies may continue to increase its inventory cost and put downward pressure on its margin in the coming quarters. Dividend payout in line. The group declared a second dividend per share of 2.5sen for 1QFY17, which is within our 10sen DPS forecast for FY17. We are maintaining our earnings forecasts for now, pending our upcoming meeting with management. Downgrade to HOLD with RM2.95 TP. The stock has performed remarkably well, with its share price rising >100% since our upgrade in August We believe that the group s current valuation has priced in its near term growth prospects, we downgrade our recommendation to HOLD with an unchanged RM2.95 TP pegged to 12x forward PE. Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (RMm) FY Jun 1Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 % chg yoy % chg qoq Revenue (11.1) Cost of Goods Sold (145) (209) (182) 25.2 (13.2) Gross Profit (7.9) Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (80.5) (88.6) (89.0) Operating Profit (10.3) (22.5) Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc nm nm Associates & JV Inc nm nm Net Interest (Exp)/Inc nm nm Exceptional Gain/(Loss) (0.1) nm nm Pre-tax Profit (10.6) (23.3) Tax (12.5) (14.2) (11.0) (11.8) (22.5) Minority Interest nm nm Net Profit (10.1) (23.5) Net profit bef Except (10.3) (23.5) EBITDA (6.6) (19.6) Margins (%) Gross Margins Opg Profit Margins Net Profit Margins Source of all data: Company, AllianceDBS Page 2

3 CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH Earnings Drivers: SSSG and number of new outlets are key revenue drivers. Like other fashion retailers, same store sales growth (SSSG) and the number of outlets opened by the group in the financial year is a key revenue driver for the group. After a strong performance in FY16, we estimate SSSG for FY17 to be about 1%, dragged by waning popularity of its popular mix-and-match bundling strategy for Padini Concept Stores (PCS). We believe that the group s topline will continue to be sustained by full contributions from 13 stores opened in FY16 and the opening of another 15 stores slated for FY17. Total retail floor space (k sq ft) Revenue growth (%) Brand Outlet could benefit from downtrading. We observe that consumers are increasingly looking for value in the competitive apparel market. This bodes well for the group s rising star, Brands Outlet s expansion over the next 2-3 years. Huge untapped market in suburban cities. The group will focus on the Brands Outlet (BO) chain over the next three years, to improve business scale, distribution network, and operating leverage, to strengthen its presence in the local apparel market. Management sees business opportunities in the huge underserved markets in Malaysia s suburban cities, and tapping these markets should keep it busy over the next few years. Once BO hits saturation point, management will review its growth strategy, including expanding its product lines and overseas business. Margin compression remains a key concern. We are concerned that the popularity of its mix-and-match bundling strategy implemented in PCS will eventually taper off, which could drag down its SSSG, given the slower-than-expected recovery in domestic consumer spending. Furthermore, the group sources about 65-70% of its products from China, which are denominated in RMB, and the remainder mainly in USD. Given the ringgit's depreciation against both currencies, we expect the group s margins to continue to come under pressure. SSS growth (%) Revenue growth from exports, consignment & others (%) Revenue growth from new floor spaces (%) Page 3

4 Balance Sheet: Strong balance sheet net cash position. The group is in a net cash position, which allows the group to (1) sustain its dividend policy of at least 10 sen per share, and, (2) undertake outlet expansion without stretching its balance sheet. Share Price Drivers: Stable margins key share price e driver. Margins have been dragged by (1) aggressive sales campaigns to drive sales and maintain market leadership, (2) the group s plans to absorb the 6% GST in the near term, and (3) more expensive imported merchandise due to the weaker ringgit. Leverage & Asset Turnover (x) Capital Expenditure Sustaining high dividend payout. Management is committed to pay out a minimum DPS of 10 sen over the next few years, even if earnings prospects remain sluggish, thanks to its (1) strong cash-generating capability, and (2) net cash position. Key Risks: Competitive sector. Padini continues to face strong competition from a large pool of retail brands in Malaysia. Prolonged slump in consumer sentiment. Although the group has so far benefited from downtrading, a prolonged slump in consumer sentiment could dampen discretionary spending. ROE (%) Company Background Padini is a 43-year-old Malaysia-based fashion retailer offering clothing, accessories and shoes under the brands of Padini, Vincci, Seed, Miki, Padini Authentic, P&Co, PDI etc. Forward PE Band (x) PB Band (x) Page 4

5 Key Assumptions FY Jun 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Total retail floor space (k sq ft) ,133 1,233 1,313 Revenue growth (%) SSS growth (%) Revenue growth from exports, (2.2) (1.1) 0.26 Revenue growth from new Income Statement (RMm) FY Jun 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Revenue ,301 1,412 1,476 Cost of Goods Sold (466) (556) (759) (819) (857) Gross Profit Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (276) (311) (356) (384) (413) Operating Profit Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc Exceptional Gain/(Loss) (0.1) Pre-tax Profit Tax (34.8) (31.6) (49.3) (54.8) (54.9) Minority Interest Preference Dividend Net Profit Net Profit before Except EBITDA Growth Revenue Gth (%) EBITDA Gth (%) 6.0 (3.7) (1.4) Opg Profit Gth (%) 5.8 (10.1) (0.8) Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 6.1 (11.8) Margins & Ratio Gross Margins (%) Opg Profit Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) ROAE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) Div Payout Ratio (%) Net Interest Cover (x) NM NM NM NM NM Page 5

6 Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (RMm) FY Jun 1Q2016 2Q Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 Revenue Cost of Goods Sold (145) (204) (200) (209) (182) Gross Profit Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (80.5) (91.0) (96.0) (88.6) (89.0) Operating Profit Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 0.21 (0.4) (0.1) Exceptional Gain/(Loss) (0.1) Pre-tax Profit Tax (12.5) (11.5) (11.1) (14.2) (11.0) Minority Interest Net Profit Net profit bef Except EBITDA Growth Revenue Gth (%) (11.1) EBITDA Gth (%) (19.6) Opg Profit Gth (%) (22.5) Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (23.5) Margins Gross Margins (%) Opg Profit Margins (%) Net Profit Margins (%) Balance Sheet (RMm) FY Jun 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Net Fixed Assets Invts in Associates & JVs Other LT Assets Cash & ST Invts Inventory Debtors Other Current Assets Total Assets ST Debt Creditor Other Current Liab LT Debt Other LT Liabilities Shareholder s Equity Minority Interests Total Cap. & Liab Non-Cash Wkg. Capital Net Cash/(Debt) Debtors Turn (avg days) Creditors Turn (avg days) Inventory Turn (avg days) Asset Turnover (x) Current Ratio (x) Quick Ratio (x) Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH CASH Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH CASH Capex to Debt (%) Z-Score (X) Page 6

7 Cash Flow Statement (RMm) FY Jun 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Pre-Tax Profit Dep. & Amort Tax Paid (35.6) (33.4) (42.2) (54.8) (54.9) Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) Chg in Wkg.Cap. (66.7) 75.1 (59.3) (23.3) (7.5) Other Operating CF (3.1) (3.6) (5.8) Net Operating CF Capital Exp.(net) (41.6) (41.8) (41.8) (25.0) (20.0) Other Invts.(net) Invts in Assoc. & JV Div from Assoc & JV Other Investing CF (57.3) (31.8) Net Investing CF (98.9) (73.6) (38.7) (21.4) (14.2) Div Paid (75.7) (65.8) (75.7) (65.8) (65.8) Chg in Gross Debt 13.7 (16.0) (11.5) Capital Issues Other Financing CF Net Financing CF (62.0) (81.8) (87.2) (65.8) (65.8) Currency Adjustments Chg in Cash (109) 36.5 (37.6) Opg CFPS (sen) Free CFPS (sen) Target Price & Ratings History Source: AllianceDBS Analyst: King Yoong CHEAH Page 7

8 DISCLOSURE Stock rating definitions STRONG BUY - > 20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame BUY - > 15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps HOLD - -10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps FULLY VALUED - negative total return > -10% over the next 12 months SELL - negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame Commonly used abbreviations Adex = advertising expenditure EPS = earnings per share PBT = profit before tax bn = billion EV = enterprise value P/B = price / book ratio BV = book value FCF = free cash flow P/E = price / earnings ratio CF = cash flow FV = fair value PEG = P/E ratio to growth ratio CAGR = compounded annual growth rate FY = financial year q-o-q = quarter-on-quarter Capex = capital expenditure m = million RM = Ringgit CY = calendar year M-o-m = month-on-month ROA = return on assets Div yld = dividend yield NAV = net assets value ROE = return on equity DCF = discounted cash flow NM = not meaningful TP = target price DDM = dividend discount model NTA = net tangible assets trn = trillion DPS = dividend per share NR = not rated WACC = weighted average cost of capital EBIT = earnings before interest & tax p.a. = per annum y-o-y = year-on-year EBITDA = EBIT before depreciation and amortisation PAT = profit after tax YTD = year-to-date Page 8

9 DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared for information purposes only by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ( ADBSR ), a subsidiary of Alliance Investment Bank Berhad ( AIBB ) and an associate of DBS Vickers Securities Holdings Pte Ltd ( DBSVH ). DBSVH is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Bank Ltd. This report is strictly confidential and is meant for circulation to clients of ADBSR, AIBB and DBSVH only or such persons as may be deemed eligible to receive such research report, information or opinion contained herein. Receipt and review of this report indicate your agreement not to distribute, reproduce or disclose in any other form or medium (whether electronic or otherwise) the contents, views, information or opinions contained herein without the prior written consent of ADBSR. This report is based on data and information obtained from various sources believed to be reliable at the time of issuance of this report and any opinion expressed herein is subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by ADBSR s affiliates and/or related parties. ADBSR does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty (whether express or implied) as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness of the data and information obtained from such sources as may be contained in this report. As such, neither ADBSR nor its affiliates and/or related parties shall be held liable or responsible in any manner whatsoever arising out of or in connection with the reliance and usage of such data and information or third party references as may be made in this report (including, but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages). The views expressed in this report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. ADBSR prohibits the analyst(s) who prepared this report from receiving any compensation, incentive or bonus based on specific investment banking transactions or providing a specific recommendation for, or view of, a particular company. This research report provides general information only and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other investments or any options, futures, derivatives or other instruments related to such securities or investments. In particular, it is highlighted that this report is not intended for nor does it have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors are therefore advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situations and particular needs and consult their own professional advisers (including but not limited to financial, legal and tax advisers) regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investments that may be featured in this report. ADBSR, AIBB, DBSVH and DBS Bank Ltd, their directors, representatives and employees or any of their affiliates or their related parties may, from time to time, have an interest in the securities mentioned in this report. AIBB, DBSVH and DBS Bank Ltd, their affiliates and/or their related persons may do and/or seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell or buy such securities from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform significant investment banking, advisory or underwriting services for or relating to such company(ies) as well as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this report. AIBB, DBSVH, DBS Bank Ltd (which carries on, inter alia, corporate finance activities) and their activities are separate from ADBSR. AIBB, DBSVH and DBS Bank Ltd may have no input into company-specific coverage decisions (i.e. whether or not to initiate or terminate coverage of a particular company or securities in reports produced by ADBSR) and ADBSR does not take into account investment banking revenues or potential revenues when making company-specific coverage decisions. ADBSR, AIBB, DBSVH, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ( DBSVUSA ), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company mentioned in this report. ADBSR, AIBB, DBSVH, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA may, within the past 12 months, have received compensation and/or within the next 3 months seek to obtain compensation for investment banking services from the subject company. DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this report should contact DBSVUSA exclusively. DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd is an authorised person in the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Research distributed in the UK is intended only for institutional clients. In reviewing this report, an investor should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additional information is, subject to the overriding issue of confidentiality, available upon request to enable an investor to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained herein. Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director Published by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ( U) 19th Floor, Menara Multi-Purpose, Capital Square, 8 Jalan Munshi Abdullah, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Tel.: Fax: general@alliancedbs.com Page 9

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