South Indian Bank. Source: Company Data; PL Research

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1 On track; one off provisions impact earnings October 11, 2017 Pritesh Bumb / R Sreesankar rsreesankar@plindia.com / Vidhi Shah vidhishah@plindia.com / Rating BUY Price Rs31 Target Price Rs37 Implied Upside 19.4% Sensex 31,834 Nifty 9,985 (Prices as on October 11, 2017) Trading data Market Cap. (Rs bn) 55.3 Shares o/s (m) 1, M Avg. Daily value (Rs m) Major shareholders Promoters 0.00% Foreign 37.90% Domestic Inst % Public & Other 49.83% Stock Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute Relative How we differ from Consensus EPS (Rs) PL Cons. % Diff Price Performance (RIC: SIBK.BO, BB: SIB IN) (Rs) Oct 16 Dec 16 Source: Bloomberg Feb 17 Apr 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 SIB continues to report decent operational performance mainly on NII & opex front, with other income (though one off) was strong leading to robust PPOP growth of 55% YoY. Only disappointment was of high provisions of Rs2.52bn from the investment book of SRs, bringing written down of value of SRs and leading to a slump in PAT of Rs43mn (PLe: Rs1.28bn). We maintain our view on the turnaround of Bank s performance with it cleansing of loan book, further strengthening of B/S through the one off provisioning on SRs and improvement of coverage. Bank has already started seeing improvement in operations and should move ahead further. We have cut our earnings estimates for FY18E to factor in higher provisions on SRs, while kept our other estimates largely unchanged. Retain BUY with TP of Rs37 based on 1.3x Sep 19E ABV (rolled from Mar 19E ABV). Operating performance remains on track: PPOP grew by ~55% YoY on back of good NII growth of 13% YoY, controlled opex of 10% YoY and high other income (incl. one off gains from interest on IT refund). Margins improved by sharp 15bps QoQ to 2.95% on back of lower cost of funds and lower yield decline on lower interest reversals comparatively. Bank maintained its guidance on NIMs of % in FY18. Loan growth continued from retail but MSME also saw strong traction: Bank s loan growth was stable at 12.4% YoY led by retail segments and MSME, while corporate/agri book growth was slower. Most retail segments continued to see good growth barring gold loans, while MSME also remained strong. According to management Bank s HUB also has done considerably well with strong growth in Housing/LAP and Auto loans, with further impetus on MSME. Bank continues to see strong pipeline in corporate book (Rs250mn Rs1bn) and hence maintained guidance of 18% YoY loan growth, while we conservatively factor in 15% growth. Asset quality stable: Slippages during the quarter were at Rs2.52bn (food processing Rs1.02bn) though were lower relatively from sequential quarter still is above bank s desired run rate of Rs1 1.5bn/quarter, which bank expects to come in future. But it expects provisions run rate to be high at Rs2.5bn in next two quarters owing to NCLT referrals and ageing of NPAs and then it to reduce considerably going forward, helping recover and improve return ratios. Key financials ( Y/e March) E 2019E Net interest income 15,097 16,754 19,595 22,181 Growth (%) Operating profit 8,793 12,146 15,741 16,692 PAT 3,333 3,925 3,334 6,910 EPS (Rs) Growth (%) (25.7) Net DPS (Rs) Profitability & Valuation E 2019E NIM (%) RoAE (%) RoAA (%) P / BV (x) P / ABV (x) PE (x) Net dividend yield (%) Source: Company Data; PL Research Q2FY18 Result Update Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report

2 NII growth was better on back of sustained loan growth in retail/msme and better margins Other income was strong contributed by treasury and other interest income Overall opex was under control mainly as staff expenses growth was muted Provisions were high on back of Rs2.5bn of NAV write down on investment SRs Exhibit 1: Better operating performance but high provisions dent earnings (Rs m) Q2FY18 Q2FY17 YoY gr. (%) Q1FY18 QoQ gr. (%) Interest Income 15,362 14, , Interest Expended 10,330 10, , Net interest income (NII) 5,032 4, , Treasury income (23.6) Other income 2,805 1, , Total income 7,837 5, , Operating expenses 3,234 2, , Staff expenses 1,681 1, , Other expenses 1,554 1, , Operating profit 4,603 2, , Core operating profit 4,603 2, , Total provisions 4,537 1, , Profit before tax 66 1,690 (96.1) 1,552 (95.8) Tax (96.1) 537 (95.8) Profit after tax 43 1,105 (96.1) 1,015 (95.7) Loan growth was stable at 12.4% YoY continued to be led by SME/Retail book, while deposit growth rate was slightly slower Margins saw good jump on back sharp decline in cost funds Balance sheet (Rs m) Deposits 6,71,421 6,01, ,57, Advances 4,89,543 4,35, ,64, Ratios (%) Profitability ratios Yield on Advances 10.03% 10.59% (56) 10.06% (3) Cost of Funds 5.42% 6.18% (76) 5.62% (20) NIM 2.95% 2.75% % 15 RoAA 0.02% 0.66% (64) 0.55% (53) Slippages of Rs2.52bn was much lower than previous quarter giving some relief to asset quality Asset Quality Gross NPL (Rs m) 17,663 17, , Net NPL (Rs m) 12,558 12, , Gross NPL ratio (39) 3.61 (4) Net NPL ratio (20) Coverage ratio (Reported) 44.09% 46.12% (203) 44.64% (55) Bank saw high utilization of Tier I of 40bps QoQ mainly on impact of dividend Business & Other Ratios CASA mix 24.55% 22.76% % (65) Cost income ratio 41.27% 49.70% (843) 44.19% (292) Non int. inc / total income 35.79% 24.68% 1, % 354 Credit deposit ratio 72.91% 72.35% % 224 CAR 11.74% 11.13% % (39) Tier I 10.40% 9.50% % (40) October 11,

3 Key Q2FY18 Concall Highlights Balance sheet Loan book MSME has strong traction. HUB based lending also has been strong in Auto (28% YoY), Home Loans & LAP (33% YoY growth). MCLR linked loans at 52% of total book. Outlook Will continue maintain guidance of 18%YoY as MSME also has picked up, retail continues to drive growth likely to see traction Auto loans, CV loans and gold loans. Corporate book also has good pipeline. Liabilities CASA growth of 20% has been satisfactory, but bank would have liked to reach CASA at 27% of deposits from 25% currently, and the bank putting higher efforts to increase CASA ratio. Margins: Margins were better in Q2FY18 on back of lower cost of funds mainly from deposits and lower interest reversals compared to earlier quarters. Outlook Bank continues to maintain margin guidance of % for FY18. Fees/Opex: Fees/Other income: Other income was higher on one time interest on IT refund of Rs260mn & PSLC trade gains of Rs590mn. Opex Opex was lower mainly on back of lower staff expenses. Asset Quality: Slippages Slippages of Rs2.52bn which bank believes is on higher side and should move down. Bank saw some elevated slippages from Agri. Slippages were from food processing ( 3 accounts spread over cashew/dal processing of Rs1.02bn), one in Textile manufacturing of Rs160mn, two trading accounts of Rs650mn and other small accounts totalling Rs690mn. Outlook: Slippages rate should come down to Rs bn from FY19 onwards and likely to see recoveries. 5/25, SDR and S4A assets Bank has Rs3.04bn under 5/25 (no change), while does not have any presence in SDR (all into NPA) & S4A. NCLT referred a/c Bank has exposure to 5 a/cs of Rs8.86bn (16% steel, 59% Infra/EPC, 25% Auto Ancillary) and all are in NPA. Have provisions in range of 25 50% on these a/c (some are already sold to ARC). Credit cost Bank provided Rs2.52bn (25% provisions) as write down on SRs received from book value of assets sold to to ARC in Q4FY17. This was mainly due to view on 4 accounts of Rs7.6bn (at book value) which are in NCLT (steel & infra). Outlook: Provisions run rate will continue to at Rs2 2.5bn/quarter on ageing, NCLT provisions and will considerably fall in FY19. We continue to believe that the problems are behind the bank and FY18 will be a period of consolidation and FY19 the period of growth. While FY18 will be characterised by increase in provisions, FY19 should see reduction in provisions and further improvement in NII and PPOP. With a strong growth of 15% (management estimates are at 18%) and better asset quality we continue to maintain a BUY October 11,

4 Exhibit 2: Loan book growth was steady and mainly led by Retail/SME 25% 23.5% 22.3% Advances growth YoY(%) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 16.6% 14.1% 14.7% 15.9% 11.4% 13.9% 1 9.8% 9.2% 3.2% 11.6% 112.4% 10.9% 9.7%9.9% 11.8% 7.8% 10.1% 12.9% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 Retail growth was led by retail business segment, but gold loan growth continued to be tepid MSME segment saw strong traction, while corporate segment remained slower as per strategy Exhibit 3: Retail growth continued to lead but MSME saw strong jump in growth Break up of Advances Q2FY18 Q2FY17 YoY gr. (%) Q1FY18 QoQ gr. (%) Agri 71,850 64, , MSME 124, , , Retail 122, , , Corporate 178, , , Total Advances 497, , , Agri 14.5% 20.4% (6) 14.5% (10) MSME 25.0% 19.1% Retail 24.6% 23.3% % (79) Corporate 35.9% 38.7% (3) 37.1% (115) Exhibit 4: CASA growth of 20% YoY continued to be buoyant Exhibit 5: Margins saw strong rebound led by lower CoF 27% 25% 19% 17% 15% 19% CASA (%) 26% 24% 25% 25% 3.4% 3.2% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 3.2% NIM (%) 2.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.9% 2.6% October 11,

5 Exhibit 6: Asset quality remained stable as slippages were under control 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Gross NPA (%) Net NPA (%) Exhibit 7: Credit cost on NPA were lower but bank provided on SRs leading to high provisions 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Credit Cost Exhibit 8: Segmental break up of slippages Overall slippages of Rs2.52bn were lower comparatively and in line with guidance Slippages run rate continued from SME, while saw some bump up of slippages from Agri segment. Corporate & Retail slippages were lower than trends 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Retail Agri SME Corporate Exhibit 9: Change in earnings table We revise our FY18 earnings lower on back of one time higher provisions but we broadly maintain our FY19 estimates (Rs mn) Old Revised % Change Introducing FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY20E Net interest income 20,228 23,071 19,595 22,181 (3.1) (3.9) 25,601 Operating profit 14,474 16,357 15,741 16, ,207 Net profit 5,355 7,037 3,334 6,911 (37.7) (1.8) 8,691 EPS (Rs) (37.7) (1.8) 4.8 ABVPS (Rs) (10.0) (8.8) 29.8 Price target (Rs) Recommendation BUY BUY October 11,

6 Exhibit 10: We shave maintained our TP of Rs37 as we move to Sep 19 ABV valuations PT calculation and upside Fair price P/ABV 37 Target P/ABV 1.3 Target P/E 8.6 Current price, Rs 31 Upside (%) 20% Dividend yield (%) 2% Total return (%) Exhibit 11: One year Forward P/ABV SIB trades at below historical averages P/ABV 3 yr avg. avg. + 1 SD avg. 1 SD Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Mar 14 Jun 14 Sep 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 October 11,

7 Income Statement (Rs m) Int. Earned from Adv. 43,636 44,474 49,596 56,584 Int. Earned from Invt. 10,078 12,335 14,640 15,971 Others 1,858 1,662 1,794 1,854 Total Interest Income 55,572 58,471 66,029 74,410 Interest expense 40,475 41,716 46,435 52,229 NII 15,097 16,754 19,595 22,181 Growth (%) Treasury Income 1,361 2,525 2,500 1,900 NTNII 3,813 4,630 6,588 7,006 Non Interest Income 5,174 7,156 9,088 8,906 Total Income 60,746 65,626 75,117 83,316 Growth (%) Operating Expense 11,478 11,764 12,942 14,394 Operating Profit 8,793 12,146 15,741 16,692 Growth (%) (0.3) NPA Provisions 4,053 6,218 7,463 5,763 Investment Provisions ,200 Total Provisions 3,696 6,144 10,643 6,124 PBT 5,097 6,002 5,098 10,568 Tax Provisions 1,764 2,077 1,764 3,658 Effective Tax Rate (%) PAT 3,333 3,925 3,334 6,910 Growth (%) (15.1) Balance Sheet (Rs m) Par Value No. of equity shares 1,350 1,803 1,803 1,803 Equity 1,350 1,803 1,803 1,803 Networth 38,419 48,455 50,812 56,529 Adj. Networth 26,567 41,709 42,373 49,100 Deposits 557, , , ,751 Growth (%) Low Cost deposits 124, , , ,688 % of total deposits Total Liabilities 634, , , ,029 Net Advances 410, , , ,457 Growth (%) Investments 147, , , ,282 Total Assets 634, , , ,029. Quarterly Financials (Rs m) Y/e March Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Interest Income 14,790 14,707 14,907 15,362 Interest Expense 10,614 10,316 10,300 10,330 Net Interest Income 4,175 4,391 4,607 5,032 Non Interest Income 2,585 1,377 2,193 2,805 CEB Treasury 1, Net Total Income 6,760 5,768 6,800 7,837 Operating Expenses 2,991 2,960 3,005 3,234 Employee Expenses 1,752 1,662 1,670 1,681 Other Expenses 1,239 1,298 1,336 1,554 Operating Profit 3,770 2,808 3,795 4,603 Core Operating Profit 2,500 2,628 2,905 3,923 Provisions 2,066 1,653 2,243 4,537 Loan loss provisions 1,689 2,105 1,775 1,344 Investment Depreciation ,771 Profit before tax 1,703 1,155 1, Tax PAT before EO 1, , Extraordinary item PAT 1, , Key Ratios CMP (Rs) Equity Shrs. Os. (m) 1,350 1,803 1,803 1,803 Market Cap (Rs m) 41,454 55,347 55,347 55,347 M/Cap to AUM (%) EPS (Rs) Book Value (Rs) Adj. BV (100%) (Rs) P/E (x) P/BV (x) P/ABV (x) DPS (Rs) Dividend Yield (%) Profitability (%) NIM RoAA RoAE Efficiency Cost Income Ratio (%) C D Ratio (%) Business per Emp. (Rs m) Profit per Emp. (Rs lacs) Business per Branch (Rs m) Profit per Branch (Rs m) Asset Quality Gross NPAs (Rs m) 15,624 11,490 16,614 16,053 Net NPAs (Rs m) 11,853 6,746 8,439 7,429 Gr. NPAs to Gross Adv. (%) Net NPAs to Net Adv. (%) NPA Coverage (%) October 11,

8 Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. 3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai , India Tel: (91 22) Fax: (91 22) Rating Distribution of Research Coverage PL s Recommendation Nomenclature % of Total Coverage 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 39.8% 43.8% 16.4% 0.0% BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12 months Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12 months Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12 months Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12 months Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1 month Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1 month Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly DISCLAIMER/DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION We/I, Mr. Pritesh Bumb (MBA, M.com), Mr. R Sreesankar (B.Sc ), Ms. Vidhi Shah (CA), Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. 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PL or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months PL or its associates might have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. PL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. PL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the subject Company or third party in connection with the preparation of the research report. PL or its Research Analysts do not have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. 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