Where We Are Finding Growth The Rise of Emerging Markets Consumers ARTISAN PARTNERS. Insights
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1 Where We Are Finding Growth The Rise of Emerging Markets Consumers ARTISAN PARTNERS Insights
2 Artisan Partners Growth Team is committed to finding accelerating profit cycles globally and investing in reasonably valued companies that are positioned for long-term growth. The team s experience and broad knowledge of the global economy are key attributes helping them identify growth opportunities, wherever they occur, for the four portfolios it manages Artisan Global Opportunities Fund, Artisan Global Discovery Fund, Artisan Mid Cap Fund and Artisan Small Cap Fund. Currently, the team has identified a number of compelling secular trends that it believes can be catalysts for profit acceleration, driving growth for some time to come. In this article, the team discusses one of those trends rising consumption in emerging markets. The Emerging Markets Growth Opportunity Over the past 20 years, emerging markets economic growth significantly outpaced the developed world. And while the developed world decelerated somewhat over the past 10 years, emerging markets in aggregate accelerated. Exhibit 1: Developed vs Non-Developed GDP Annualized Growth Rates 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 20-year Brazil China India Mexico Russia Total Non- Developed Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database. As of Apr US 10-year Total Developed That economic growth, combined with liberalization in many emerging economies allowing improved capital deployment, greater trade and freer flow of technological innovation, has yielded a growing middle class. As these new consumers enter income levels consistent with increased spending, they have been and should continue to be a powerful force for accelerating profits for well-positioned firms particularly share-leading retailers offering a compelling product mix and/or those with strong mobile e-commerce platforms. The Consumer Class is Still Growing Expectations for emerging markets growth have tempered from the more heady rates of the recent past. However, those expectations appear to be largely a function of lower anticipated government spending and investment activity as these countries continue deleveraging (in aggregate, though not uniformly) following the 2008 credit crisis rather than a reflection of weaker consumption trends. In fact, emerging markets in aggregate are still estimated to grow at nearly double the pace of the developed world over the next five years, as consumer spending is projected to continue growing briskly. The New Emerging Consumption Class Despite concerns of near-term slowing over the next 20 years, emerging markets are expected to contribute more than 70% of global GDP growth, with emerging markets consumer spending growing to $30 trillion annually representing nearly half of all global spending. A key difference in the emerging consumer classes now compared to the prior developed-markets consumer evolution is the exposure to global brands. The Internet allows new consumers to explore and purchase global brands in ways that didn t exist 20 and even 10 years ago. As such, we anticipate newer consumers will follow a similar trajectory, but in a more condensed fashion. This translates into rising penetration of basic goods, increased demand for more complex diets, health care and personal care products, but also rising demand for durable goods as well as more aspirational and luxury non-domestic brands. Emerging markets consumers have already changed the luxury goods marketplace. The number of luxury goods consumers tripled in the past 20 years to approximately 330 million globally, spending about $300 billion annually. An estimated 130 million of these are emerging markets shoppers. And despite somewhat softer global growth expectations, the number of luxury shoppers is expected to continue growing due to emerging markets consumers who have proven loyal to global luxury and near-luxury brands. Mobile Consumption Made Easy We have written in the past about the strong secular trend of mobile computing, which is reordering the way we consume. The trend has been particularly disruptive in emerging economies. Consumption, already on the rise across emerging economies, is made easier because of the adoption of these devices. A material challenge for firms selling into emerging markets can be a lack of infrastructure to support bricks-and-mortar retail. As a result, many of
3 these countries are under-stored and distribution can be a challenge, particularly in more rural areas, where over half of emerging markets populations still live. However, the ability to tap consumers online and on-the-go can turn a lack of infrastructure into a moat against competition. Focusing on Internet-based models, firms can enter new markets and launch fast without spending material time and capital on developing bricks-and-mortar presences. In effect they can skip a step in normal business development, with the potential for wider profit margins. Emerging markets companies can often feature higher growth rates which can raise questions about sustainability. In our view, higher growth rates may be justified for certain firms, when considering their business models may be more asset-light with the potential to rapidly increase share in underpenetrated markets. We believe there is still a tremendous opportunity here. Developing world smartphone penetration still trails the developed world by a wide margin 40.9% in emerging markets in 2016 compared to the developed world s 90.3% (Exhibit 2) but is rising fast. Since 2011, over 50% of annual smartphone shipments have been to emerging markets, and broadband subscriptions are growing at nearly triple the rate of developed markets. Exhibit 2: Broadband vs Cellular Subscription Penetration 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Global Developed Non-Developed Mobile Broadband Subscriptions Mobile Cellular Subscriptions Source: ITU World Telecommunication. As of 31 Dec We envision similarly fast growth for what mobile computing allows, including person-to-person messaging, content and mobile e-commerce. Though growing fast, e-commerce in major emerging markets represents only about 10% of Internet usage the rest is primarily for social media and search. Precisely because of the unique, understored characteristics of many emerging markets and the low but rising smartphone penetration rates, we believe e-commerce whether mobile or otherwise has the potential to become a bigger share of total retail spending in emerging markets than in developed. (China s e-commerce market is already larger relatively than the US.) In fact, should developing world Internet usage converge with developed much of that growth likely coming from mobile devices that s approximately a billion additional Internet users being introduced to an already mature platform, at a time when consumption trends are generally rising. For firms that have or have the capacity to develop a trusted mobile platform, that gives them exposure to a powerful wave of new consumers. To find firms that are positioned well to benefit, we look for those that may have first-mover advantages they can lever into scale and network advantages, and that have invested ahead of the curve to develop a thoughtful mobile strategy. We also prefer firms capable of generating high rates of free cash flow that can be directed at widening competitive advantages. For example, Tencent (a holding in Artisan Global Opportunities Fund) is a leading Internet-based social and gaming platform in China with a popular messaging platform. By offering engaging content and social-network services, Tencent has acquired users in demographics attractive to online advertisers. With the integration of its messaging platform WeChat, the firm is diversifying its revenue and ramping its mobile ad monetization. Whereas many of Tencent s peers have stumbled in monetizing mobile traffic, Tencent appears to be targeting ads well, supported by improving user engagement trends. Overall, the firm is growing a mobile ecosystem that will incorporate a mobile payments solution and partnerships with key e-tailers. The Retail Runway in Understored Regions Even for companies without a mobile-centric business model, a lack of infrastructure can create compelling opportunities for certain well-positioned, share-leading retailers. Some attributes we look for in firms that we believe have the potential to grow at interesting rates are strong management teams that understand well the markets where they operate. Scale advantages can allow firms to consolidate and/or move quickly into new areas to secure competitive advantages. These firms may be able to acquire smaller competitors and leverage an existing footprint and/ or distribution network while selling to a locked-in, established base of customers customers with relatively few other options. We would then look for such firms to broaden their customer bases, improve same-store sales and/or widen margins by introducing improved operational systems and negotiating better pricing with suppliers. A compelling product offering can also be a significant competitive advantage, particularly if it includes sought-after global brands products perceived to be higher quality and/or are not readily available elsewhere. Examples of such firms we have found include PriceSmart (a holding in
4 Artisan Small Cap Fund), the largest operator of membership warehouse clubs in Central and South America and the Caribbean. PriceSmart offers higher-quality branded and private-label goods that smaller operators often don t have access to. In PriceSmart s chosen markets, it faces little direct membership-model competition, and big-box retail penetration remains low. As a result, the firm can use its share and scale advantages and its efficient operating model to create a virtuous cycle lower prices drive higher traffic and increased scale, driving greater economies which are then reflected in lower prices again. Where We Are Finding Growth An important consideration when investing in companies domiciled in emerging markets is the potential for higher volatility. These stocks may face lower liquidity levels, higher informational friction and/or restrictions on non-domestic investors capital-markets features that can vary greatly country by country. Regulatory, political and monetary constructs can also vary significantly, as can strength of rule of law. Then, even within a single country, the amount of regulatory and political scrutiny can vary from industry to industry. Rather than approaching emerging-markets exposed companies with rigid top-down country-specific criteria, we consider how the political/ regulatory climate may impact our visibility into future profit growth on an individual company basis. Analysis of country-specific factors can also factor into how we risk-adjust position sizes. When considering firms exposed to rising emerging markets demand, we start where we always do: Identifying solid franchises with decided competitive advantages tied to a proprietary product or process, leading market share and/or low cost advantages. We then look for the potential for profit acceleration supported by compelling internal and/or external drivers. And we attempt to buy those future profits at a reasonable valuation we can understand. Among firms domiciled in emerging markets, this often entails identifying high-quality firms, preferably with an asset-light model and lower capital intensity that is free cash-flow generative. As mentioned, we also look for share-leaders and/or those with first-mover advantages being levered into scale and network advantages, with compelling product offerings and, often, a mobile ecosystem trusted by its users. Rising emerging markets demand can also play a role in our investment theses for firms domiciled in developed markets. In the table, we highlight a selection of holdings across all three portfolios we believe can benefit from rising emerging markets consumerism. The following stocks are sample holdings in each of the portfolios Artisan Partners Growth Team manages, highlighting investment opportunities the team believes should benefit from the secular trend of growing emerging markets consumption. ARTRX APFDX ARTMX ARTSX Treasury Wine Estates, a global wine company with a leading international portfolio of New World wines, including iconic brands. PriceSmart, the largest operator of membership warehouse clubs in Central and South America and the Caribbean. Treasury Wine Estates is executing solidly on its strategy to reinvigorate its brands and improve margins by streamlining its business and cutting costs. Further, it is increasing its footprint in China s solidly growing market as the country s expanding middle class s demand grows for masstige wines premium brands at the $20 and above price-point per bottle. PriceSmart can use its share and scale advantages in its chosen markets to offer higher-quality goods at lower prices, to drive increased traffic and thereby greater economies of scale. Tencent, a leading Internetbased social and gaming platform in China with a popular messaging platform. Tencent has been diversifying its revenue and is ramping its mobile ad monetization. Tencent appears to be targeting ads well, supported by improving user engagement trends.
5 Investment Process Highlights We seek to invest in companies with franchise characteristics that are benefiting from an accelerating profit cycle and are trading at a discount to private market value. Security Selection We seek to identify companies with franchise characteristics that are selling at attractive valuations and are benefiting from an accelerating profit cycle. We look for companies that are well positioned for long-term growth, driven by demand for their products and services, at an early enough stage in their profit cycle to benefit from the increased cash flows produced by the emerging profit cycle. Capital Allocation Based on our fundamental analysis of a company s profit cycle, we divide the portfolio into three parts. Garden SM investments are small positions in the early part of their profit cycle that will warrant a more sizeable allocation once their profit cycle accelerates. Crop SM investments are positions that are being increased to a full weight because they are moving through the strongest part of their profit cycle. Harvest SM investments are positions that are being reduced as they near our estimate of full valuation or their profit cycle begins to decelerate. We believe that adhering to this process increases the likelihood of delivering upside participation with downside protection. Broad Knowledge We overlay security selection and capital allocation with the capability to invest opportunistically across the entire global equity spectrum. It is our goal to have broad knowledge of the global economy to ensure that we are able to find growth wherever it occurs. This capability extends from the design of our team, which leverages the broad experience of the portfolio managers and the deep expertise of the analysts on the team. Team Overview We believe deep industry expertise, broad investment knowledge, a highly collaborative decision-making process and individual accountability are a powerful combination. Since the inception of the team in 1997, we have been committed to building a team of growth investors that retains these attributes and is solely dedicated to our process and approach. For more information: Visit Call Carefully consider the Fund s investment objective, risks and charges and expenses. This and other important information is contained in the Fund s prospectus and summary prospectus, which can be obtained by calling Read carefully before investing. International investments involve special risks, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid and may have underperformed securities of large companies during some periods. Growth securities may underperform other asset types during a given period. The views and opinions expressed are based on current market conditions as of 30 Jun 2017, which will fluctuate and those views are subject to change without notice. Security examples are for informational purposes only and are not representative of the entire portfolios. There is no guarantee that investment in the securities mentioned will result in profit. While the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, there is no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in the discussion. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any investment service, product or individual security. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. For the purpose of determining portfolio holdings, securities of the same issuer are aggregated to determine the weight in the Fund. The holdings mentioned above comprise the following percentages of the Funds total net assets (including all share classes) as of 31 Dec 2017: Artisan Global Opportunities Fund Tencent Holdings Ltd 2.2%, Treasury Wine Estates Ltd 2.9%. Artisan Global Discovery Fund Treasury Wine Estates Ltd 2.8%. Artisan Mid Cap Fund Treasury Wine Estates Ltd 1.6%. Artisan Small Cap Fund PriceSmart Inc 0.7%. Portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice and are not intended as recommendations of individual securities. Securities named in the commentary but not listed here are not held in the Fund as of the date of this report. Free Cash Flow is a measure of financial performance calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. Private Market Value is an estimate of the value of a company if divisions were each independent and established their own market stock prices. Our capital allocation process is designed to build position size according to our conviction. Portfolio holdings develop through three stages: Garden ȘM Crop SM and Harvest ṢM Garden SM investments are situations where we believe we are right, but there is not clear evidence that the profit cycle has taken hold, so positions are small. Crop SM investments are holdings where we have gained conviction in the company s profit cycle, so positions are larger. Harvest SM investments are holdings that have exceeded our estimate of intrinsic value or holdings where there is a deceleration in the company s profit cycle. Harvest SM investments are generally being reduced or sold from the portfolios. This material is provided for informational purposes without regard to your particular investment needs. This material shall not be construed as investment or tax advice on which you may rely for your investment decisions. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments in order to determine the appropriateness of any investment product discussed herein. We expressly confirm that neither Artisan Partners nor its affiliates have made or are making an investment recommendation, or have provided or are providing investment advice of any kind whatsoever (whether impartial or otherwise), in connection with any decision to hire Artisan Partners as an investment adviser, invest in or remain invested in any funds to which we serve as investment adviser or otherwise engage with Artisan Partners in a business relationship. Artisan Partners Funds offered through Artisan Partners Distributors LLC (APDLLC), member FINRA. APDLLC is a wholly owned broker/dealer subsidiary of Artisan Partners Holdings LP. Artisan Partners Limited Partnership, an investment advisory firm and adviser to Artisan Partners Funds, is wholly owned by Artisan Partners Holdings LP Artisan Partners. All rights reserved. 2/15/2018 A17756L vr
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