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1 BUY CMP Target Price BHARAT FORGE LTD Result Update: Q3 FY14 MARCH 26 th 2014 ISIN: INE465A01025 Index Details Stock Data Sector Industrial Products BSE Code Face Value wk. High / Low (Rs.) / Volume (2wk. Avg.) Market Cap (Rs. in mn.) Annual Estimated Results (A*: Actual / E*: Estimated) YEARS FY13A FY14E FY15E Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS P/E Shareholding Pattern (%) 1 Year Comparative Graph BHARAT FORGE LTD S&P BSE SENSEX SYNOPSIS Bharat Forge Ltd. (BFL), the flagship company of the USD 2.5 billion Kalyani Group is a global provider of high performance, innovative, safety & critical components and solutions to various industries. The company s net profit jumps to Rs mn against Rs mn in Q3 FY13, an increase of 97.75%. Revenue for the quarter rose by 23.72% to Rs mn from Rs mn, when compared with the prior year period. EBITDA for Q3 grew by 54.7% to Rs mn compared to Q3 FY13. EBITDA margins expanded by 520 bps on back of improvement in turnover. PBT before Exchange gain/ (loss) increased by 119.1% in Q3 FY14 to Rs 1,413 mn compared to Q3 FY13. Bharat Forge has declared an interim dividend of Rs. 2/- per share on the face value of Rs. 2/- each for the financial year BFL Q3 shipment tonnage at 42,702 tons and increased by about 14% compared to Q3 FY13. The Company continues to win new orders across auto & non-auto segments. During Q3 FY14, the International operations have registered strong performance driven by cost controls, productivity improvements and innovative new products Operating Profit and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 4% and 4% over 2012 to 2015E respectively. PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS P/E (X) P/BV(X) DIVIDEND Company Name (Rs.) Rs. in mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%) Bharat Forge Ltd Ahmednagar Forgings Ltd Carborundum Universal Ltd Grindwell Norton Ltd

2 Recommendation & Analysis - BUY Bharat Forge Ltd (BFL) continues to do well despite the domestic slowdown because of a diversified product mix and strategic entry in to the non-automotive sectors in The Company continues to win new orders across auto & non-auto segments. Revenues increased by 23.7% in Q3 FY14 to Rs mn as compared to Q3 FY13 on back of 54.5% increase in export revenues. EBITDA for Q3 grew by 54.7% to Rs mn compared to Q3 FY13. EBITDA margins expanded by 520 bps on back of improvement in turnover. PBT before Exchange gain/ (loss) increased by 119.1% in Q3 FY14 to Rs 1,413 mn compared to Q3 FY13. PAT for the quarter at Rs mn grew by 97.75% compared to Q3 FY13. In the quarter gone by, sales developed in line with expectations while it witnessed a strong improvement over the weak 3 rd quarter previous year. The International operations have also registered strong performance driven by cost controls, productivity improvements and innovative new products. Looking ahead, the company will see demand levels across geographies stabilizing with an upward bias. Overall demand is expected to be moderately better in Q4 FY14 driven by exports & early signs of recovery in India. Over FY E, we expect the company to post a CAGR of 4% and 4% in its EBIDTA and net profit respectively. Hence, we recommend BUY for Bharat Forge Ltd with a target price of Rs for medium to long term investment. QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS (STANDALONE) Results updates- Q3 FY14, Bharat Forge Ltd (BFL) is a global provider of high performance, innovative, safety & critical components and solutions to various industry sectors including Automotive, Construction & Mining, Agriculture components, Oil and Gas, Power, Locomotive and Marine, Aerospace. It is one of the largest global Engine and Chassis components manufacturers, reported its financial results for the quarter ended 31 st Dec, Months Dec-13 Dec-12 % Change Net Sales PAT EPS PBIDT The company s net profit jumps to Rs million against Rs million in the corresponding quarter ending of previous year, an increase of 97.75%. Revenue for the quarter rose by 23.72% to Rs million from Rs million, when compared with the prior year period. Reported earnings per share of the company stood at Rs a share during the quarter, registering 97.75% increase over previous year period. Profit before interest, depreciation and tax is Rs million as against Rs million in the corresponding period of the previous year.

3 Break up of Expenditure Break up of Expenditure Rs. In Millions Q3 FY14 Q3 FY13 Cost of Material Consumed Employee Benefit Expenses Depreciation & Amortization Expenses Manufacturing expenses Other Expenses Segment Revenue Latets Updates Bharat Forge Ltd has declared an interim dividend for the financial year at the rate of Rs. 2/- per share (100% on the face value of Rs. 2/- each). Bharat Forge Hongkong Limited is a indirect subsidiary of Bharat Forge Ltd in Hong Kong has divested its 51.85% stake in its Chinese JV operations (FAW Bharat Forge (Changchun) Company Limited) to its Joint Venture partner, China FAW Corporation Limited, for US$ mn (Rs mn) ending its 8 years old Joint Venture in China.

4 BFL Q3 shipment tonnage at 42,702 tons was flat compared to the previous quarter while it increased by about 14% compared to Q3 FY13 despite the domestic CV market witnessing the worst quarter in the last 2 years. The Wholly Owned Subsidiaries have recorded another strong performance driven by concentrated focus on productivity & cost control. Total Income grew by 34.5% while EBITDA grew by an impressive 121.8%. EBITDA margins at 8.6% during the quarter expanded by 340 bps. The operations registered PAT of Rs. 133 million as against a loss of Rs. 56 million in the corresponding period previous year. Bharat Forge Ltd has earned recognition as a Partner-level supplier for 2013 in the John Deere Achieving Excellence Program. The Partner-level status is Deere & Company s highest supplier rating. COMPANY PROFILE Bharat Forge Limited (BFL), the Pune based Indian multinational is a technology driven global leader in metal forming having transcontinental presence across eight manufacturing locations, serving several sectors including automotive, power, oil and gas, construction & mining, locomotive, marine and aerospace. Part of Kalyani Group - a USD 2.5 billion conglomerate with 10,000 global work force; BFL today has the largest repository of metallurgical knowledge in the region and offers full service supply capability to its geographically dispersed marquee customers from concept to product design, engineering, manufacturing, testing and validation. The world's largest forging company with manufacturing facilities spread across India, Germany and Sweden, Bharat Forge manufactures a wide range of high performance, critical & safety components for the automotive & non-automotive sector. It is India's largest manufacturer and exporter of automotive components and leading chassis component manufacturer in the world. BFL's customer base includes virtually every global automotive backed by several decades of experience in component manufacturing & metallurgy, the company is now looking beyond automotive and has embarked on an ambitious and exciting journey to redefine its already existing presence across several critical business verticals such as oil & gas, power, locomotive & marine, aerospace, metals & mining, construction and general engineering. Bharat Forge will use its strong platform of metallurgical knowledge, design & engineering capability and manufacturing prowess, to create a strong position for itself in these sectors. Expanding into new horizons will give Bharat Forge a completely new growth perspective. It will begin the transformation of the company from an auto component supplier to an engineering company with diverse complementary businesses in new high growth sectors.

5 Subsidiary Companies CDP Bharat Forge GmbH Bharat Forge America Inc. BF-NTPC Energy Systems Limited Kalyani ALSTOM Power Limited BF Infrastructure Limited BF Infrastructure Ventures Limited BF Power Equipment Limited BF Elbit Advanced Systems Private Limited Kalyani Polytechnic Private Limited

6 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHT (STANDALONE) (A*- Actual, E* -Estimations & Rs. In Millions) Balance Sheet as at March31, E SOURCES OF FUNDS Shareholder's Funds FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E Share Capital Reserves and Surplus Sub Total - Net worth Non Current Liabilities Long Term Borrowing Deferred Tax Liabilities Other Long term Liabilities Long Term Provisions Sub Total - Non Current Liabilities Current Liabilities Short term borrowings Trade Payables Other Current Liabilities Short Term Provisions Sub Total - Current Liabilities Total Liabilities (1+2+3) APPLICATION OF FUNDS Non-Current Assets Fixed Assets Tangible assets Capital Work in Progress a) Sub Total - Fixed Assets b) Non- Current Investments c) Long Term loans and advances d) Other non-current assets Sub Total - Non Current Assets Current Assets Current Investment Inventories Trade receivables Cash and Bank Balances Short-terms loans & advances Other current assets Sub Total - Current Assets Total Assets (1+2)

7 Annual Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 2012 to 2015E Value(Rs.in.mn) FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E Description 12m 12m 12m 12m Net Sales Other Income Total Income Expenditure Operating Profit Interest Gross profit Depreciation Profit Before Tax Tax Net Profit Equity capital Reserves Face value EPS Quarterly Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 30 th June, 2013 to 31 st March, 2014E Value(Rs.in.mn) 30-Jun Sep Dec Mar-14E Description 3m 3m 3m 3m Net sales Other income Total Income Expenditure Operating profit Interest Gross profit Depreciation Profit Before Tax Tax Net Profit Equity capital Face value EPS

8 Ratio Analysis Particulars FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E EPS (Rs.) EBITDA Margin (%) 24.75% 25.95% 28.91% 29.39% PBT Margin (%) 14.84% 13.98% 16.75% 17.17% PAT Margin (%) 9.82% 9.70% 11.33% 11.70% P/E Ratio (x) ROE (%) 16.89% 13.22% 13.99% 13.28% ROCE (%) 29.45% 27.42% 27.69% 26.98% Debt Equity Ratio EV/EBITDA (x) Book Value (Rs.) P/BV Charts

9 OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSION At the current market price of Rs , the stock P/E ratio is at x FY14E and x FY15E respectively. Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY14E and FY15E is seen at Rs and Rs respectively. Operating Profit and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 4% and 4% over 2012 to 2015E respectively. On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at x for FY14E and x for FY15E. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 3.58 x and 3.10 x respectively for FY14E and FY15E. We recommend BUY in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs for Medium to Long term investment. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW India s automobile industry India s automobile industry faced significant headwinds in , owing to high interest rates, rising energy prices and spiralling inflation. Besides, poor consumer sentiment added to the sector s woes. Only the utility vehicle segment witnessed robust growth, on back of strong demand and new product introduction. However, the country s long-term automobile industry outlook remains optimistic, with favourable demographics, scope for penetration and rising disposable income expected to drive future growth.

10 Industrial, Capital goods & infrastructure India s power (wind and thermal), and capital goods industries witnessed a considerable decline. The capital goods and infrastructure business segments are important aspect of the Company s plan to grow with India s expanding economy. India s annual capital goods demand exceeds Rs. 300,000 crore. (Source: Ministry of Heavy Industries) However, only one-third of this is met domestically, with the rest being supported by imports. A robust capital goods industry, which caters to 15 percent of India s GDP, will drive sustainable growth in manufacturing. Outlook Economic uncertainties, along with a decline in automotive and industrial sectors in its primary markets, namely India, the US and the Eurozone nations, adversely impacted BFL s performance in FY13. Despite the Company s recovery initiatives through cost control and increased productivity, the domestic as well as export outlook for FY14 remain sluggish. Disclaimer: This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable but do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd. or any of it s affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document is provide for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision.

11 Firstcall India Equity Research: C.V.S.L.Kameswari Pharma U. Janaki Rao Capital Goods B. Anil Kumar Auto, IT & FMCG Suhani Adilabadkar Pharma & Banking M. Vinayak Rao Diversified C. Bhagya Lakshmi Diversified Firstcall India also provides Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt.Ltd focuses on, IPO s, QIP s, F.P.O s,takeover Offers, Offer for Sale and Buy Back Offerings. Corporate Finance Offerings include Foreign Currency Loan Syndications, Placement of Equity / Debt with multilateral organizations, Short Term Funds Management Debt & Equity, Working Capital Limits, Equity & Debt Syndications and Structured Deals. Corporate Advisory Offerings include Mergers & Acquisitions(domestic and cross-border), divestitures, spin-offs, valuation of business, corporate restructuring-capital and Debt, Turnkey Corporate Revival Planning & Execution, Project Financing, Venture capital, Private Equity and Financial Joint Ventures Firstcall India also provides Financial Advisory services with respect to raising of capital through FCCBs, GDRs, ADRs and listing of the same on International Stock Exchanges namely AIMs, Luxembourg, Singapore Stock Exchanges and other international stock exchanges. For Further Details Contact: 3rd Floor,Sankalp,The Bureau,Dr.R.C.Marg,Chembur,Mumbai Tel. : / / Telefax : info@firstcallindiaequity.com

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