48 th Annual EEI Financial Conference November Brett Gellner, Chief Financial Officer

Transcription

1 48 th Annual EEI Financial Conference November 2013 Brett Gellner, Chief Financial Officer 1

2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may contain forward-looking statements pertaining to the following: the timing and the completion and commissioning of projects under development including major projects and their attendant costs; our estimated spend on matters relating to the recent flood in Alberta; spend on growth and sustaining capital and productivity projects; expectations in terms of the cost of operations, capital spend, and maintenance, and the variability of those costs; the impact of certain hedges on future reported earnings and cash flows; expectations related to future earnings and cash flow from operating and contracting activities; estimates of fuel supply and demand conditions and the costs of procuring fuel; expectations for demand for electricity in both the short term and long term, and the resulting impact on electricity prices; expected impacts of anticipated turnarounds, load growth, increased capacity, and natural gas costs on power prices; expectations in respect of generation availability, capacity, and production; expected governmental regulatory regimes and legislation and their expected impact on us, as well as the cost of complying with resulting regulations and laws; our trading strategy and the risk involved in these strategies; estimates of future tax rates, future tax expense, and the adequacy of tax provisions; accounting estimates; anticipated growth rates in our markets; expectations for the outcome of existing or potential legal and contractual claims; expected financing of our capital expenditures; expectations for the ability to access capital markets at reasonable terms; the estimated impact of changes in interest rates and the value of the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar and the Australian dollar; the monitoring of our exposure to liquidity risk; expectations in respect to the global economic environment; our credit practices and the estimated contribution of Energy Trading activities to gross margin. Factors that may adversely impact our forward-looking statements include risks relating to: fluctuations in market prices and the availability of fuel supplies required to generate electricity; our ability to contract our generation for prices that will provide expected returns; the regulatory and political environments in the jurisdictions in which we operate; environmental requirements and changes in, or liabilities under, these requirements; changes in general economic conditions including interest rates; operational risks involving our facilities, including unplanned outages at such facilities; disruptions in the transmission and distribution of electricity; the effects of weather; disruptions in the source of fuels, water, or wind required to operate our facilities; natural disasters; the threat of domestic terrorism and cyber-attacks; equipment failure; energy trading risks; industry risk and competition; fluctuations in the value of foreign currencies and foreign political risks; the need for additional financing; structural subordination of securities; counterparty credit risk; insurance coverage; our provision for income taxes; legal and contractual proceedings involving the Corporation; reliance on key personnel; labor relations matters and the successful completion of development projects and acquisitions. The foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk Management section of our 2012 Annual MD&A and under the heading Risk Factors in our 2013 Annual Information Form. Except to the extent required by law, we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. All forward looking statements in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. For information on our risks please refer to our 2013 Annual Information Form which has been filed on SEDAR and can be accessed at Unless otherwise specified, all dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars. This presentation may contain references to comparable earnings, comparable earnings per share, comparable EBITDA, funds from operations, and funds from operations per share which are not defined under IFRS. Refer to the Non-IFRS financial measures section of TransAlta s 2012 annual MD&A for an explanation and, where applicable, reconciliations to net earnings attributable to common shareholders and cash flow from operating activities. The presentation may also contain references to gross margin and operating income, which are Additional IFRS measures. Please refer to the Additional IFRS measures section of the MD&A. 2

3 TransAlta Key Messages Leading Diversified Power Generation Company ~9,200 MW spanning multiple fuels and markets Over 75 facilities ~2,400 MW of renewable energy Proven Track Record 100 years of operating history Disciplined approach to capital allocation Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth Highly contracted asset base Investment grade credit ratings Robust access to capital Significant cash flow upside post-ppa ~1,800 MWs added over past 5 years Located in markets with strong fundamentals TransAlta Renewables and strategic partnerships to fund growth 3

4 Our Business Canada s largest publicly traded wholesale power generator & marketer with over 100 years of operating experience Coal: 4,926 MW 1 Diversified asset base with over 75 facilities strategically positioned in Canada, Western U.S. and Western Australia Gas: 1,916 MW 1 Total fleet capacity of ~9,200 MWs Our business lines: Coal Gas Renewable energy (Hydro, Wind, Geothermal) Energy trading, which optimizes our other business lines Hydro: 919 MW 1 Wind: 1,273MW 1 Sponsor and majority owner of TransAlta Renewables Listed on Toronto and New York stock exchanges Geothermal: 164 MW 1 1 Net Capacity Ownership Interest. Includes 100% of TransAlta Renewables assets. 4

5 Strategic Evolution of TransAlta Actively shifting our business mix by growing renewables Net Capacity Ownership Interest. Includes 100% of TransAlta Renewables assets. 5

6 Creation of TransAlta Renewables 1 ~80% owned by TransAlta Corporation High Quality Diversified Portfolio 5 Operating Regions British Columbia 4 hydro 77 MW Bone Creek 19MW Upper Mamquam 25MW Pingston 23MW Akolkolex 10MW Summerview One 70MW Sinnott 7MW Castle River 44MW Belly River 3MW Waterton 3MW Alberta 4 hydro 21 MW 10 wind 417 MW Cowley North 20MW Summerview Two 66MW Macleod Flats 3MW Blue Trail 66MW Soderglen 35MW Taylor Hydro 13MW McBride Lake 38MW Ardenville 69MW St. Mary 2MW Ontario 4 hydro 7 MW 3 wind 398 MW Misema 3MW Quebec 1 wind 68 MW New Richmond 68MW Kent Hills One 80MW Kent Hills Two 45MW 1 Above figures do not include acquisition of 144 MW Wyoming wind farm announced on October 21, 2013, which is expected to close by the end of December Moose Rapids 1MW Appleton 1MW Galetta 2MW Wolfe Island 198MW Melancthon One 68MW Melancthon Two 132MW New Brunswick 2 wind 125 MW 6

7 Capital Allocation Discipline Disciplined approach to driving long-term value for shareholders Optimize base business Re-contract to stabilize cash flows and extend asset life Optimize planned outages Proactively manage operating & fuel costs Maintain strong availability across our fleet Prudently and rigorously manage sustaining capital expenditures Integrated Approach Invest in profitable growth High returning projects and acquisitions Target markets with strong fundamentals Focus on renewable energy and gas Ability to use tax attributes in the U.S. Multiple funding sources Return cash to our shareholders & maintain strong balance sheet Competitive quarterly dividend Investment grade credit ratings Underpinned by strong cash flows 7

8 2013 Business Highlights Stabilizing cash flows and extending the life of assets through re-contracting Contract extension for 245 MW in Australia (Q4) 20-year contract for 74 MW at Ottawa with Ontario Power Authority (Q3) 24-year contract with Salt River Project in Arizona for 50 MW at Cal Energy LLC (Q3) 24-year contract with City of Riverside in California for 86 MW at Cal Energy LLC (Q2) 11-year contract with Puget Sound Energy for up to 380 MW at Centralia (Q2) Creating value through growth Acquisition of 144 MW Wyoming Wind Farm with 15-year PPA (Q4) Creation of TransAlta Renewables Inc. to fund growth (Q3) Commercial operation of 68 MW New Richmond Wind Farm with 20-year PPA (Q1) Full year contribution from 125 MW Solomon gas plant with 21-year PPA in Australia Steady performance from Energy Trading Gross margins in line with historical averages 8

9 2013 Performance Highlights (in $ millions, except as otherwise noted) YTD 2012 YTD 2013 Comparable EBITDA $963 $1,045 $1,014 $701 $780 FFO $805 $809 $776 $572 $550 Sustaining Capital $346 $319 $439 $327 $245 Adjusted Availability % 88.2% 90.0% 90.3% 86.4% Consistent EBITDA driven by new growth and steady operations across most of the business despite higher priced contracts rolling off at Centralia FFO in line with previous years Decreases in sustaining capital spend due to the completion of 3 year re-investment program in the coal fleet 2013 availability, adjusted for Keephills 1 force majeure, is in line with annual target of 89-90% 1 Adjusted for economic dispatching at Centralia. 9

10 Highly Contracted with Upside Potential Hedge targets increased to support near-term revenue certainty MW Total Portfolio Contractedness 1 90% 83% 78% 77% CONTRACTED PRICES 2013 AB ~ $60/ MWh Pac NW ~ $40/ MWh 2014 AB ~ $55/ MWh Pac NW ~ $45/ MWh ¹Capacity adjusted volumes. Includes 100% of TransAlta Renewables assets, and the 144 MW Wyoming wind farm acquisition announced on October 21, 2013, which is expected to close by the end of December

11 Alberta Strong Fundamentals Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Reserve Margin, Alberta continues to see considerable demand growth due to industrial and mining activities, and their indirect impacts Also, significant retirements in capacity in next 10 years: 800 MW of coal retiring in ,200 to 3,200 MW of new capacity (above that currently being built) required by AESO Long Term Adequacy Metrics August

12 Historical Power Prices in Alberta Since deregulation, AB Pool prices have averaged $65 / MWh Source: AESO 12

13 Alberta Forward Market $/MWh AB forward market is a poor predictor of future spot market settles Forward prices tend to reflect spot fundamentals not future fundamentals Average annual Alberta power prices compared to historical forward Alberta power prices Source: Canaccord Genuity Data: NGX, Alberta Electric System Operator 13

14 Significant Upside Potential Post Alberta PPAs Expiry of the Alberta Coal and Hydro PPAs expected to provide significant EBITDA upside and dividend coverage Current Coal PPAs generate average revenue of ~$30/MWh ¹Illustrative representation of estimated average EBITDA over period. Actual EBITDA could vary from those shown due to a number of factors 14

15 TransAlta s 5-Year Growth Track Record Disciplined growth with a focus on contracted assets MW Kent Hills 694 MW Canadian Hydro 123 MW Ardenville / Kent Hills MW Summerview 2 / Blue Trail MW Bone Creek 450 MW Keephills MW Solomon 68 MW New Richmond 144 MW Wyoming Wind ~ 1,800 MW added in our core markets over 5 years 1 ¹Indicative illustration based on annualized EBITDA contributions includes recent acquisition of 144 MW Wyoming Wind assuming full year pro-forma. 15

16 Well Positioned to Continue to Grow Recent additions: 125 MW long-term contracted Solomon Acquisition Gas Renewables Actively pursuing greenfield and acquisitions: Cogeneration in Alberta and B.C. Combined & simple cycle in Alberta and Australia Recent additions: 144 MW long-term contracted Wyoming Wind farm 68 MW long-term contracted New Richmond Wind farm Actively pursuing: Acquisitions in North America and Australia Other Actively pursuing: Transmission opportunities in Alberta and Australia Investments in solar technologies 16

17 Focused on Creating Value Diversified and highly contracted portfolio Disciplined approach to driving long-term shareholder value Positioned for growth in markets with strong fundamentals Significant upside post-ppa 17