Zambian Mining Conference
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1 Zambian Mining Conference Mining Industry Outlook and the Impact of Capital Markets: Key note address by Mr. Tom Albanese, CEO, Vedanta Resources Plc London, United Kingdom, 29 June 2015: Honorable Minister, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, Friends. I am pleased to be here today to discuss the outlook for the Mining industry and the impact of capital markets its future. Given the commodity price volatility, last few quarters have been testing for the mining industry, for copper mining, and for Zambia. However as mining veterans know, such commodity cycles can be weathered easily by high quality mining assets with strong management. One such high quality asset in our portfolio is the Konkola Copper Mines in Zambia. I regularly visit Zambia, and along with the chairman of Vedanta Anil Agarwal, and Steven Din, the CEO of KCM, I share a love for the country and its people. Zambia is a country that has mining in its veins in its history, in its geography, and in the skills base of its people. We see that at KCM. The company operates across four locations. We have open pit and underground mines, concentrators, our state-of-the-art smelter, a tailings leach plant and a refinery an entire production value chain. This is why, despite the fact that at the time of purchase copper was seen as out of fashion, Vedanta has continued to invest there since buying a 79.4% stake in KCM in We have since invested more than $3 billion in the business, including sinking Zambia s largest shaft at Konkola Deep, building a new smelter at Nchanga and Page 1 of 8
2 upgrading a range of facilities. All of which have prepared KCM for a profitable long-term future. We are also continuing to seek greenfield opportunities and maintain brownfield exploration. We are now looking at a mine life that has been extended by over 50 years, and a vision for KCM that extends beyond 50 years, and sits at the heart of Vedanta s plans for future growth across Africa. Macro themes driving investor confidence Across the world, it is no secret that the mining sector is facing challenging times, with: Declining commodity prices; and Reduced investor interest in mining sector. On the demand side, as we know, China s growth, which has been weaker than expected, with GDP growth flat at around 7% over the past 12 months. Simultaneously, the mining industry globally is reaping the fruits of a years-long investment boom, with the production of many commodities at very strong levels. And so what we are seeing is a weakening in commodity prices across the board, and investor sentiment that is skeptical, if not negative. There are two things that investors are looking for: Strong balance sheets, as they position themselves to capitalize on opportunities on the rebound; and Strong capital returns to shareholders and withdrawal from risky investments Page 2 of 8
3 As a result, capital expenditure has been cut aggressively across the mining industry. While none of us like this state of affairs, we must remember that it is part of the normal commodity cycle. The sustained high prices of the latest commodity cycle peaked in 2011 and I think government and miners alike remember fondly copper prices of around $10,000/tonne - whereas today we see prices below $6000/tonne. Now, reduced and declining capital expenditure has forced companies to focus on operational efficiencies to sustain profitability. There has also been again, across the industry a focus from investors on cost performance and asset utilization. And as a result, major mining companies are focusing intently on improving the performance of all assets. This will in turn provide opportunities for smaller growth-oriented resource companies if they can attract the necessary investment funds. For companies with low-cost operations, debt reduction is the focus, while higher-cost producers are struggling with profitability and seeking to cut costs aggressively. And, as is the case in this type of situation, the funds available for exploration have become difficult to attract. Commodity risks When we look at commodity markets, there are some signs of hope. The current challenging economic environment is not impacting on all commodities equally. Page 3 of 8
4 Iron ore and coal are facing both weakened demand and strong production increases arising from a sustained period of capital expenditure. Accordingly, the outlook is for several years of depressed prices for those commodities. By contrast, the outlook for some of the base metals like zinc and copper is more positive. We see closure of some of the existing mines and as it becomes increasingly difficult to get new mines started due to host of issues including lower grades, water scarcity and community issues. So while we are experience a very tough price environment for copper today, the outlook is stronger and we expect to see a return to more favourable prices over a 2-3 year horizon. Zambia and country risk Having run through some broad strategies that different mining companies are using around the world as we navigate these difficult waters, I d like to discuss KCM s own approach in Zambia. KCM, as we all know, is a big company, with a big legacy. For more than half a century KCM produced most of Zambia s copper. It is one of the largest employers in the country. Vedanta is proud of this legacy, and proud to carry it forward. KCM is one of the largest integrated copper producers in Africa, with mines, concentrators, a smelter and refineries in the Copperbelt Region. KCM s Nchanga mine is one of the jewels of the Copperbelt, having been in operation since the 1930s. As I mentioned, since acquiring KCM, Vedanta has invested heavily in the assets. When the acquisition was made, the Nchanga operations had an expected life of only 3 years. That was 10 years ago. We have been able to extend the life of Page 4 of 8
5 those remarkable operations through exploration drilling and a strong focus on operational efficiencies. Just as significantly, the company took the decision to develop shaft access into the Konkola orebody at a cost of around $1 billion. Konkola is the host of a truly world class orebody, with a strong reserve base, which I believe will enable it to operate for the next 50 years. It also has some of the highest grades of any of the large copper orebodies in the world, with averages grades of 3.5% With this strong asset base, Vedanta sees a long-term future for itself in the country. In order to ensure that we are fit for growth, and to sustain operations through this tough period for mining internationally, we have focused - as we said we would - on bringing down our costs of operations, and increasing volumes. Rigorous cost-savings initiatives led by dedicated teams are being implemented to reduce power usage, fuel and chemicals consumption and repair and maintenance costs. As a result of these initiatives, we are seeing a substantial reduction in quarter-on-quarter costs on an absolute and on unit cost basis. With these efforts we are moving from negative cash flow towards a cash break even, but still, a lot of work needs to be done to ensure that this large high-grade resource can be sustainably producing well and long into the future. So Vedanta is coming to the table on investment, and on making critical management decisions to ensure the life of the business. But like every mining operation in Zambia, we will struggle to achieve this task alone. Without a stable and predictable operating environment, it is difficult to push through global headwinds. We saw this in Page 5 of 8
6 As the honorable minister said in an interview just two weeks ago, the uncertainty of the last four to six months has meant production has taken a knock. But this year, following his election, President Lungu and Minister Yaluma sought to improve the relationship between the Government and the mining industry. They did this by establishing a clear commitment to establishing an environment of mutual respect. I want to applaud them for that. They backed it up with action. In February, the government amended the documentation requirements to reclaim VAT on future exports. This is an important step for KCM as it enables the company to increase its purchase and treatment of third-party concentrates, which will allow for an increase production from its smelter. The government also announced recently its intention to reduce royalty rates to 9% for open pit and 6% for underground mines; a measure I expect will be affirmed by the Parliament this week. This decision is very encouraging. It is an important step towards ensuring that Zambia has an enabling fiscal regime that is stable and can attract continuous investments in Zambia Friends, in many African countries, there is a searching dialogue underway regarding the benefits that have flowed from mining. Zambia is no exception, and I would like to add my voice to that dialogue. I believe that more can and must be done to see Zambia benefit from its mineral endowment. Despite a century of active mining, the country continues to suffer from serious poverty. Page 6 of 8
7 Zambia is blessed with rich water and land resources, and more than that, Zambia is blessed with its people. Zambia should be the breadbasket of Africa, and it will be. We in the mining industry can help to realise this vision. If we keep on backing our investments and are able to respond and adapt to the global market, we will be able to develop one part of the economy so that Zambia s leadership can create and achieve a vision for the country as a whole. We must recognize that mining alone will not sustain jobs and livelihoods in perpetuity. As the mining industry becomes more and more mechanised, so agriculture, tourism, logistics, services and trade will all need to make a bigger contribution to employment. Vedanta has a 50-year vision for KCM and opportunities to develop the Copperbelt as Vedanta s copper hub for the group s future African growth. This vision depends on the Copperbelt realizing its potential. Making the Copperbelt a hub for the region and for the African continent will require a contribution from a diverse range of sectors and industries. It will require an unprecedented level of collaboration between industry, and between industry and government. With the right strategy, carefully executed in partnership with government, donors and civil society groups, mining companies can contribute to significant additional economic activity per year in non-mining sectors. This has the potential to create thousands of jobs, specifically in agriculture, forestry, horticulture, aquaculture, services and manufacturing. What we are talking about is the creation of real sustainability in mining. Finally, I d like to re-emphasise that we are meeting at a critical moment, and encourage all participants in this conference to take an optimistic view. Page 7 of 8
8 Zambia has abundant mineral potential, and a strong skills base. With the right technical and economic solutions, there s no reason why the industry cannot make it through this tough phase. Industry leadership is sound, and our relationship with government is close, and becoming more collaborative by the day. We are not so far from achieving the stable and conducive policy environment necessary to put the industry back on an even keel fit and ready to grow as global conditions ease. Page 8 of 8
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