Asia-Pacific Quarterly Outlook

Transcription

1 Asia-Pacific Quarterly Outlook JANUARY 2012 Prudential Real Estate Investors 8 Campus Drive Parsippany, NJ USA Phone Fax REF: # PFIA 8QSNCX

2 Executive Summary Macro Themes Fueled by government investments and strong domestic consumption, Asia-Pacific economies continue to grow robustly. Growth will be challenging in 2012 amid the weak global economic environment, but the region s resiliency should enable it to weather any slowdown. Although China s economy is expected to decelerate in 2012, we believe the government is committed to meaningful growth, especially with a change of leadership scheduled this year. The challenge will be to boost domestic consumption among the country s 1.3 billion population. That would compensate for the anticipated slow growth in exports, as demand from the US and Europe will likely be subdued. Asia s employment market expanded in 2011, resulting in lower unemployment rates. Hiring in 2012 may be muted due to economic volatility, but the long-term employment uptrend should remain intact and produce higher household income. The region s inflation rate was stubbornly high in the second half of Inflation is likely to level off in 2012, as consumer demand will become more price sensitive given the softening economy. Central banks are likely to ease their monetary policies at a measured pace in While the cost of debt will gradually fall, lenders are likely to underwrite more conservative terms given the soft economic prospects. Implications and Outlook for Commercial Real Estate Market fundamentals will mostly move in a positive direction in the region this year, but the uncertain global economic backdrop has prompted us to moderate our outlook. We have lowered our 2012 office rental forecasts in some cities, such as Hong Kong and Singapore. Asia s office markets had a good run for most of 2011, capitalizing on the robust demand. However, demand tapered off in the fourth quarter as external market uncertainty weighed on market sentiment. The slowdown in hiring, especially among financial institutions, may continue in 2012, thereby reducing demand for additional office space. Lower demand will force landlords to be more realistic about their expectations for rent increases in The region s retail market should be resilient in 2012, supported by robust spending in the intra-regional tourism industry and thriving domestic consumption. REF: # PFIA 8QSNCX 1

3 Economic Trends Favorable Long-Term Outlook for the Region GDP growth in the Asia-Pacific region was 4.3% in 2011, well above the 2.7% global rate and more than double the growth rate of the US and Europe will be a challenging year for the region, as the external environment remains anemic and growth in demand for Asia s exports will likely slow. Nonetheless, Asia-Pacific is projected to outperform the other regions over the next few years and should remain attractive to global investors (CHART 1). Consumer prices likely peaked in 2011 and should trend down this year as food prices are dropping globally. Against this backdrop, policy easing is probable and any upward pressure on interest rates will be moderate. Asia-Pacific s labor market remained robust in 2011, resulting in low unemployment rates compared to other regions (CHART 2). While hiring in 2012 may moderate due to the uncertain global economic outlook, the long-term trend should remain positive, as the region continues to be the growth engine for the world. Fundamental indicators such as government investments, foreign reserves and foreign direct investments are trending up, which will help the region to weather the global economic headwinds anticipated in the new year. 1) HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED ASIA-PACIFIC GDP GROWTH, 16% 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% -2% AU CN HK IN JP KR MY PH 2) HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED ASIA-PACIFIC UNEMPLOYMENT RATES 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% AU CN HK JP KR MY PH SG SG TW TW TH TH AP US US EUROPE EUROPE GLOBAL G Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit, International Monetary Fund, Prudential Real Estate Investors REF: # PFIA 8QSNCX 2

4 Economic Trends Inflation Likely To Ease in 2012 Higher food prices and transport costs fueled inflation in Asia-Pacific in 2011, prompting most Asian central banks to raise benchmark lending rates to keep inflation at bay. Emerging economies such as China and India were the most affected (CHART 3). We believe inflation has peaked during the current cycle, making further rate hikes less likely in the short term. Japan s inflation was relatively immaterial in 2011, and it is expected to stay that way for the next two years. Meaningful domestic consumption is needed to stimulate economic growth. The Japanese yen remains strong, which is the bane of Japanese exporters and the broader economy. China s inflation should be lower in 2012 than it was in If so, that will help the central government maintain social stability. Any monetary easing in 2012 should be gradual and modest. Sharp changes are unlikely as residential prices have yet to see a meaningful downward adjustment from the government s standpoint. The inflationary environment is expected to ease going forward for other Asia-Pacific economies, so the upward pressure on interest rates will likely be mild (CHART 4). 3) HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED ASIA-PACIFIC INFLATION RATES 1 8% 6% 4% 2% AU CN HK IN JP KR MY PH SG TW TH AP US EUROPE GLOBAL ) HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED ASIA-PACIFIC LENDING RATES 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% AU CN HK IN JP KR MY PH SG TW TH Sources: EIU, Prudential Real Estate Investors REF: # PFIA 8QSNCX 3

5 Real Estate Markets Strong Economies Underpin Demand for Real Estate Asia s real estate markets are buoyed by favorable economic trends that include rising export volume, increasing private consumption and corporate expansions. What s more, the political environment is growing more stable with improving transparency and healthy government finances (CHART 5). 5) ASIA-PACIFIC COUNTRY RISK RANKINGS Asia s stability differentiates the region from those that are grappling with anemic growth prospects and sovereign debt issues. The region has weathered downturns in the past on the way to meaningful recovery, which could be repeated in this cycle. Business expansions led to increased demand for space in the region in The positive business sentiment gave landlords high hopes for rental expectations in the first six months of However, those prospects faded, especially in the office sector, amid the global economic turmoil in the second half. Despite the hiccup, the development and investment prospects of the Asian real estate markets can surprise on the upside. Singapore, Shanghai and Beijing are among the top cities for both investment and development prospects, according to the latest ULI Emerging Trend Asia Report (CHART 6). Real estate valuations in Asia, especially for prime assets, are likely to be stable in 2012 despite the external market uncertainty. This will bode well for the region s real estate investment environment. 6) ASIA-PACIFIC CITY INVESTMENT AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS Better Development Worse Prospects Sydney Shanghai Better Singapore Beijing Melbourne Taipei Investment Prospects Jakarta Bangkok HK Tokyo Seoul KL Worse Sources: EIU, Word Economic Forum, S&P, Transparency International, ULI Emerging Trends Asia 2012, Prudential Real Estate Investors REF: # PFIA 8QSNCX 4

6 Transaction Volume 4Q11 Volume Was Down, But Sales Are Set to Rebound in 2012 After three strong quarters of transaction activity in 2011, momentum decelerated in the fourth quarter (CHART 7). Reasons for the slowdown include the uncertain economic outlook, policy tightening, weakening fundamentals and mismatched pricing expectations, which delayed potential buyers willingness to commit in the fourth quarter. As a result, investment sales in Asia-Pacific fell 3.6% in 2011 from Transaction volume fell the most in Japan (-11%), thanks to the negative impact from the March earthquake and the soft economic prospects. Volumes also dropped 5% in China and 6% in Hong Kong. Significant increases in investment sales were posted in Singapore (19%), Australia (17%) and South Korea (14%). The fourth-quarter decline in volume was primarily due to fewer sales of development sites (CHART 8). This is especially true in China, where the government s determination to cool the housing sector impacted the outlook of prices of housing units and land. Investment sales in the region in 2012 will heavily depend on the global economic environment. With real estate fundamentals and asset valuations holding up well in the region, demand for real estate in Asia should increase going forward, unless there are shocks such as a worsening of the European sovereign debt crisis. 7) ASIA PACIFIC TRANSACTION VOLUME (US BIL), % OF GLOBAL TOTAL $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11* OTHERS SINGAPORE AUSTRALIA CHINA SOUTH KOREA HONG KONG JAPAN ASIA PACIFIC % OF TOTAL 8) ASIA PACIFIC TRANSACTION VOLUME BY TYPE (US BIL) $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11* OTHERS APARTMENT INDUSTRIAL RETAIL OFFICE DEV SITE Sources: Real Capital Analytics, Prudential Real Estate Investors REF: # PFIA 8QSNCX 5

7 Debt Markets Financing More Accessible for Quality Assets Banks continue to be a major source for real estate investment in the region. The European sovereign debt crisis only slightly increased Asia s cost of borrowing in The Ted spread, a key measure of short-term borrowing for banks, has risen by about 20 bps, relatively immaterial compared to the peak of the global financial crisis in 2009 (CHART 9). Although spreads are moving up and banks are slightly less aggressive to lend, Asian banks are well-capitalized. Real estate markets in Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore have benefited from low financing costs. Lending rates are expected to remain stable over the next year, which should be favorable to the property investment markets (CHART 10). Concerned about the stability of state-run banks, China s policymakers have curbed lending activity by increasing loan rates and upping capital reserve requirements. Monetary tightening over the past 12 months was aimed at stemming excessive capital flows into the real estate sector in an effort to deflate the asset bubble. The People s Bank Of China (PBOC) recently reduced the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 bps. The act is widely deemed as the start of monetary easing policy to improve liquidity within the economy should the European debt crisis deteriorate and adversely impact China s exports. 9) TED SPREADS (BPS) SUBPRIME Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 10) COST OF FINANCING ACROSS ASIA-PACIFIC Interbank Rate (12-Months) Cost of Financing (Current Spread) Estimated Cost (Excl Fees) 2011 Year End Australia* 4.5 Based Rate +175 to 200 bps China** 7.05% Base Rate +0 to % Hong Kong 0.87% HIBOR +213 to 263 bps Japan 0.46% TIBOR +104 bps 1.5 Malaysia 3.41% KLIBOR +184 bps 5.25% S Korea 3.66% KORIBOR +214 bps 5.8 Singapore 1.12% SIBOR +138 to 188 bps Cash Rate ** 5-year PBOC rate Note: assumption is based on core office buildings in various locations Sources: Bloomberg, Prudential Real Estate Investors REF: # PFIA 8QSNCX 6

8 Public Markets Public Real Estate Largely Down in 2011, Rebound Likely in 2012 Public real estate companies largely backslid in Asia in 2011 (CHART 11). Japan saw more than a 2 decline in the value of REITs and property stocks. Investor sentiment was obviously dampened by the aftermath of the earthquake and the stagnant economy. Stock prices of development firms in Singapore and Hong Kong were hurt by fear of a bubble in the private housing sector. Investors should favor the REIT market in 2012 due to its defensiveness and resiliency. The spreads of REIT dividend yields over risk-free rates remained attractive in 2011 (CHART 12). Given the quantitative easing expected in 2012, the upward pressure on REIT dividend yields could moderate going forward. Fundraising for IPOs in Asia totaled US$77.7 billion in 2011, topping the US (US$36.4 billion), Europe (US$29.6 billion) and Latin America (US$8.6 billion). Even so, the total amount raised in Asia in 2011 dropped 56% from The outlook for IPOs in 2012 will hinge on investor confidence and the resolution of the Euro sovereign debt issues. We will likely see another challenging year for the capital markets and potential issuers. Globally, 72% of global capital was raised in the first half of The secondhalf slowdown was due to deepened concerns about European sovereign debt and the downgrade of the US credit rating. 11) TOTAL RETURNS, REITS, PROPERTY EQUITIES IN ASIA REITs Hong Kong 10.7% 33.6% 67.3% -28.9% 10.4% Japan -22.3% % % Malaysia 27.3% 6.9% 30.7% -14.8% 17.8% Singapore -11.1% 17.3% 82.2% -56.1% 2.8% Property Hong Kong -22.8% 18.1% 73.2% -53.9% 57.1% Japan -21.2% 15.4% 5.6% -46.6% -13.2% Malaysia 0.7% 34.4% 37.5% -38.5% 41.3% Singapore -22.9% 6.7% 85.9% -57.3% 8.9% 12) CAPITALIZATION AND DIVIDEND YIELDS OF ASIAN REITS No. of REITs Market Cap (US$ Bil.) Average Dividend Yield * Risk-free rate refers to long-term government bond yields ** Weighted average based on market cap Risk Free Rate* Spread (bps) Japan 34 $ % 0.99% 516 Singapore 25 $ % 567 Hong Kong 8 $ % 404 Malaysia 14 $ Korea 1 $ % 441 Total 82 $ %** Sources: Ernst & Young, Standard & Poor s Index Services (local currency), Prudential Real Estate Investors REF: # PFIA 8QSNCX 7

9 Office Markets Office Demand and Rental Growth Slowed in the Fourth Quarter 2011 Asia-Pacific office markets had a good run in the first three quarters of 2011, evidenced by the robust occupier demand and rental increases (CHART 13). Nonetheless, leasing activities slowed in the final quarter of 2011, mainly owing to the heightened Euro zone sovereign debt risk. Demand for space in traditional volatile financial centres such as Hong Kong and Singapore dropped meaningfully in 4Q11. Rental corrections are expected in 2012 due to weaker occupier demand, but they are likely to be short-lived. Tokyo office rents remained soft in Vacancies have yet to decline much, although they have probably peaked. In Seoul, rent moved downward due to the surplus supply in the CBD. Nevertheless, the Gangnam and Yoido submarkets showed rental defensiveness. Beijing and Jakarta s prime office markets posted 5 year-over-year growth in Rental momentum will continue at a moderate pace, underpinned by strong demand from domestic corporations. Yields also took a pause in 4Q11 after dropping significantly during the first half of the year (CHART 14). With yields in many markets at or close to their historical lows, further yield compressions are unlikely. Among mature markets, yields in Sydney and Melbourne are the highest and have attracted high level of interests from global investors. Beijing and Jakarta led the way in capital values, with growth in both cities topping more than 5 year-over-year. Transaction volume is likely to be thinner in 2012 than in The leasing market is expected to soften and banks are turning more conservative. 13) ASIA PACIFIC OFFICE RENTAL GROWTH SEOUL SINGAPORE KUALA LUMPUR TOKYO HONG KONG TAIPEI BANGKOK MELBOURNE SHANGHAI SYDNEY BEIJING JAKARTA E 2012 F 2013 F 2014 F 14) ASIA PACIFIC PRIME OFFICE YIELDS 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 2011 E 2012 F 2013 F 2011 E 2012 F 2013 F 2011 E 2012 F 2013 F 2011 E 2012 F 2013 F 2011 E 2012 F 2013 F 2011 E 2012 F 2011 E 2012 F SYD SG HK TKO KL SH BJ SPREAD (%) RISK FREE RATE (%) Sources: JLL, MIKI SHOJI, CBRE, Prudential Real Estate Investors REF: # PFIA 8QSNCX 8

10 Retail Markets Retail Demand Remained Firm in 2011 Unlike the office sector, the retail sector in the region has not been significantly affected by the global economic crisis. Prime retail rents across the region are forecast to increase over the next 4 years, led by Chinese Tier I cities. The positive outlook is underpinned by robust demand from retailers, growing private consumption and low vacancy rates (CHART 15). China s retail sales expanded by about 17% year-over-year in 2011, similar to the preceding year. Consumer consumption in the mainland is expanding in line with strong economic growth and rapid urbanization. Catchment in decentralized areas will be more appealing for retailers in Tier 1 cities and rent growth will be stronger at malls in CBD markets. Hong Kong-based REITs Fortune and Link acquired suburban malls in 4Q11 at initial yields below 5%. This reflects the robust retail sales market in Hong Kong, supported by positive domestic consumption. Despite the slowdown expected in 2012, we believe the long-term retail market outlook in Hong Kong remains positive, supporting the rental uptrend over the next few years (CHART 16). In Southeast Asia, the retail leasing market in Jakarta is capitalizing on robust retail sales growth of 15-2 per year. The market s sustainable economic growth and natural resources serve to attract international retailers. Japan s economic environment remains somewhat patchy and consumer consumption has yet to establish a meaningful outlook across the board. Nonetheless, prime retail in Tokyo is still seeing stable occupancies, indicating that Tokyo remains a key market for luxury goods. 15) ASIA PACIFIC RETAIL RENTAL GROWTH 8% 6% 4% 2% Beijing Shanghai Jakarta Hong Kong Kuala Lumpur Melbourne Taipei Bangkok Sydney Singapore Tokyo AVERAGE RENTAL GROWTH PER ANNUM (2012F TO 2015F) 16) ASIA PACIFIC RETAIL YIELDS AND SPREADS 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 10-YEAR GOVT BOND YIELD (2011) PEAK SINCE E 2012 F Sources: JLL, CBRE, Prudential Real Estate Investors REF: # PFIA 8QSNCX 9

11 Investment Performance Positive On Retail; Selective On Office Despite the near-term uncertainty, the region s real estate markets still present opportunities and should be able to deliver relatively attractive returns over the next few years. That the region recovered so quickly after the global financial crisis demonstrates its robust fundamentals such as sustained trade surpluses, government budget surpluses, low unemployment rates, growing household consumption and corporate expansions. Beijing and Jakarta saw meaningful office occupier demand and capital value growth in We expect them to lead the pack in the foreseeable future. Sydney and Melbourne also present investment opportunities, where total returns are more balanced between prices and income (CHART 17). Hong Kong s office market sentiment is clouded by the slowing demand and downward pressure on rents. We believe the performance of the city s submarkets will be mixed in 2012, with the prime office being defensive compared to the non-prime or secondary office. In Singapore, new supply remains an issue. Demand from the financial sector will determine how much rental adjustment is needed going forward. Retail market returns across Asia remain promising in the medium term (CHART 18). The sector s defensiveness has been tested in past downturns and the rebounds were impressive. The growing consumerism in Asia demonstrates rising affluence and strong consumer confidence, which explains why retail malls are tightly held by owners. 17) PROJECTED PRIME OFFICE TOTAL RETURNS, Singapore Taipei Hong Kong Tokyo Seoul Kuala Lumpur Shanghai Melbourne Bangkok Sydney Beijing Jakarta Capital Value Growth ) PROJECTED PRIME RETAIL TOTAL RETURNS, Tokyo Singapore Hong Kong Taipei Sydney Melbourne Kuala Lumpur Beijing Shanghai Bangkok Jakarta Capital Value Growth Income Return Income Return Source: Prudential Real Estate Investors REF: # PFIA 8QSNCX 10

12 Asia-Pacific Outlook Leaders and Laggards Property markets in Beijing and Jakarta are expected to be the outperformers in 2012 (CHART 19), given the robust occupier demand and the strong upside on income and capital values. There could be cap rate compression going forward, especially when there are signs that central banks in both China and Indonesia are easing their monetary policies. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate by 25 bps in November, signaling that it is prepared to use monetary easing to cushion any negative impact from the global economic downturn. The Australian economy has been resilient in recent years and we believe it will weather the looming downturn. Office employment should be stable going forward and the outlook for office markets in Sydney and Melbourne remains positive. On the other hand, the outlook for Singapore and Seoul offices are limited, due in part to concerns over surplus supply. That could impact valuations, and investors are likely to take wait-and-see approach. Hong Kong and Singapore retail markets, especially in the suburban locations, are defensive and should have upside potential. The logistics sector remains attractive across the region. Demand for major Chinese transportation hubs remains strong due to lack of supply and stable export activities. In Japan, the requirement of modern logistics space has been strong since the earthquake. 19) MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 2012 Rental Growth EXCELLENT OUTLOOK GOOD POTENTIAL LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES Offices Prime Shopping Centres Logistics Capital Value Overall Rental Growth NOT ATTRACTIVE Capital Value Overall Overall TKO TPE KL BKK HK SYD MEL BJ SH JKT NA SG SEO NA NA NA Source: Prudential Real Estate Investors REF: # PFIA 8QSNCX 11

13 Attractive Risk-Adjusted Investment Opportunities Asia THEME INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Sustainable Economic Growth Suburban malls in well-established neighborhoods in highly transparent markets, i.e. Singapore and Hong Kong. High-quality office buildings with solid macro economic fundamentals: China Tier I Cities and Jakarta. High-quality shopping malls located in good catchment areas of major cities in China. Defensive Investments High-quality shopping malls located in prime areas of major cities (i.e. capital or provincial cities) in China. Strong macro-economic growth, the regional tourism industry and increasing wealth underpin demand for regional retail real estate, i.e. Singapore and Hong Kong. Modern logistic investments in selective hubs, such as Tokyo Bay, Hong Kong, Singapore and Key China coastal cities. Demand for Core Investments Demographic and Urbanization Trends High-quality office buildings with strong macro economic fundamentals and good tenant profiles: Major Australian cities. Less-volatile markets, possibly with higher yields and stable rental growth, e.g. Singapore retail and China logistics sector. Prime retail with quality tenants in key areas within Tokyo Central 5 wards. Regional neighborhood shopping malls in major Japanese cities. Suburban retails in good catchment areas in Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. Growing urbanization trends and the low level of dependency ratio underpin the demand for residential units in the region: partnering with local developers, such as China Tier I, II, III cities, Indonesia and Vietnam. Retail development: China retail mall development in a good catchment areas of upper tier cities and Jakarta retail market. Office developments in Shanghai and Beijing. Cyclical Investments Highly volatile financial centers but are expected to bounce back offices in Hong Kong and Singapore. Acquiring/partnering with distressed developers in China. REF: # PFIA 8QSNCX 12

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