2017 Taiwan Investment Conference

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1 2017 Taiwan Investment Conference by CFA Society Taiwan Presented by: Andrew Stotz,PhD, CFA

2 Panel: Investment Opportunities in APAC Moderator Panel Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research Nguyen Thi Vinh Ha, CFA Partner, Grant Thornton (Vietnam) Ashraf ava, CFA Chief Executive, Nael Capital (Pvt) Limited April Lynn Tan, CFA Vice President and Head of Research, COL Financial iharilal Deora, CFA, CIPM, FCA, CFP, CIM Partner, DVG & Associates 2

Executive summary India: The largest economy, has

Pakistan: Highest population growth at 2%, strong

Philippines: Large amount of young people, decent

population, very low unemployment, decent

Large share of population in the labor force,

3 Executive summary India: The largest economy, has had the highest GDP growth, but appears expensive Pakistan: Highest population growth at 2%, strong profitability, low gearing, cheap valuation Philippines: Large amount of young people, decent fundamentals, but expensive Thailand: Aging population, very low unemployment, decent fundamentals and momentum, not expensive Vietnam: Large share of population in the labor force, fundamentally strong, low gearing, relatively cheap Source: A. Stotz Investment Research

4 Economic and Population asics of 5 Select Markets in Asia India Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam

5 India Is the Largest Economy and Has Had the Highest GDP Growth 2016 India Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam GDP US$bn 2, GDP growth (%) GDP per capita US$ 1,709 1,468 2,951 5,908 2,186 GDP per capita growth (%) The largest economy, India, was also the fastest growing in 2016 at 7.1% Pakistan GDP growth wasn t far behind, GDP per capita grows slower due to highest pop. growth at 2% Thailand is richest per capita, but slowest growing Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, orld ank

6 Massive Half a illion Person Labor Force in India 2016 India Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam Population (m) 1, Population growth (%) Labor Force (m) Labor Force growth (%) Age Dependency Ratio (%) Unemployment (%) Very high labor force growth in Pakistan and Philippines, in line with a high population growth Extremely low unemployment rate in Thailand Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, orld ank

7 Singapore Hong Kong Japan Korea Malaysia Maldives China Thailand Sri Lanka Mongolia Indonesia Philippines hutan Lao PDR Vietnam India Pakistan angladesh Myanmar Cambodia Nepal Afghanistan Majority of Countries in Asia Have Room to Grow GDP per Capita before Their Populations Age Current US$ 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Population (RHS) GDP per capita (m) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Tiny Singapore and HK highest per capita GDP China s per capita GDP is impressive given size India has opportunity to expand per capita GDP for decades Indonesia, Pakistan, and angladesh are big Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, orld ank. Note: Statistics as of 2016.

8 Afghanistan Maldives Pakistan Mongolia Cambodia Philippines Malaysia Lao PDR hutan Singapore India Indonesia Nepal Sri Lanka angladesh Vietnam Myanmar Hong Kong China Korea Thailand Japan India Growing Twice as Fast as China 3.0 (%) Population (RHS) (m) Population growth 1, ,400 1,200 1, India growing 2x China Above average growth in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Philippines Korea and Thailand have slowest growth In Japan population is shrinking Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, orld ank. Note: Statistics as of 2016.

9 China India Indonesia Pakistan angladesh Japan Philippines Vietnam Thailand Myanmar Korea Afghanistan Malaysia Nepal Sri Lanka Cambodia Hong Kong Laos Singapore Mongolia hutan Maldives Youth ill Soon Drive India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Philippines. Lost Youth in Thailand % of Total population 2016, m 100 1,379 1, China has the largest labor force, but India has more young people about to join Japan has the largest percentage of old folks Relatively rich Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore all facing aging population Less rich Thailand at risk Young Labor force Old Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, orld ank

10 India, Pakistan, and Philippines Have an Abundance of Youth % of Total population 2015, m 1, Thailand and Vietnam now have the largest share of the pop. in working age However, India, Pakistan, and Philippines have a large share of young dependents to join the labor force in the future - India Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam Young Labor force Old Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, orld Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision

11 Thailand and Vietnam Are Facing Aging Population % of Total population 2050, m 1, Thailand and Vietnam are getting old, but not rich Unlike Japan which got rich and then old, moving its per capita GDP to a recent USD39,000 Thailand only recently hit USD6,000, while Vietnam is at USD2,200 - India Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam Young Labor force Old Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, orld Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision

12 anking Issues Faced by oth India and Pakistan with about a 10% NPL Ratio Non-performing loans to total gross loans (%) Philippines banking sector is in the best shape High, but stable in Pakistan India s bad loans are rising fast India Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam na Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, orld ank

13 Only Thailand Is a Major Exporter Net trade (% of GDP) (5) (10) (15) (1.5) (7.1) (9.0) 14.7 India Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam Philippines has recently becoming very dependent on imports and has not matched that with exports or re-exports of imported products Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, orld ank

14 Inflation and Unemployment Rate Are Very Low in Thailand 2016 (%) Unemployment rate Inflation, consumer prices * India Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam Thailand has very low inflation and unemployment rate, Vietnam has low as well India has the highest inflation at almost 5% Pakistan and Philippines have relatively high unemployment Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, orld ank. Note: *Inflation for Vietnam is 2015.

15 Market asics of 5 Select Markets in Asia India Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam

16 Top 3 Sectors Account for 60%+ of Market Cap in Philippines, Pakistan, and Vietnam Mcap (% of total) GICS Sector India Philippines Pakistan Vietnam Thailand Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities Real Estate Total mcap Top 3 sectors % mcap Philippines has the largest concentration of mkt cap in the top 3 sectors In Pakistan and Vietnam, the consumer sectors account for almost 30% of total mkt cap Only in Thailand, Financials are less than 20% of mkt cap Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters

17 India Has the Largest Number of Listings hile Thailand Is the Most Liquid Market Mcap (% of total) GICS Sector India Philippines Pakistan Vietnam Thailand Total listed stocks 3, Liquid stocks Liquid stocks (% of total) A liquid stock is defined as over US$250m mcap and at least US$1m ADTO India has the most number of listings by far Thailand has the largest share of liquid stocks Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters

18 India, Vietnam, and Philippines Markets up about 18% Market return in 9M17 (%) (10) 11 Local currencies USD Uses a comparable standard of MSCI Index Pakistan has had a tough year Thai aht strength has driven USD returns (20) (30) (22)(23) India Thailand Vietnam Philippines Pakistan Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Note: MSCI Indices, not local indices

19 Net margin, PTM (%) Fundamentals: Vietnam and Pakistan Are the Stars 10 9 Vietnam Pakistan Philippines India orld Thailand Vietnam and Pakistan both have high net profit margin and asset turnover Philippines has high net margin, but lowest turnover Asset turnover, PTM (%) Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Note: MSCI Indices.

20 2017CE* Price-to-earnings (x) Valuation: None of the Five Countries Is Cheap with Fast Growth Philippines Thailand India orld Philippines and India are expensive Vietnam and Pakistan are cheap, but Pakistan has falling EPS 14 Vietnam 12 Pakistan CE* EPS growth (%) Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Notes: *CE is consensus estimates. MSCI Indices.

21 Price change, 6mth (%) Momentum: Fastest Revenue Growth Is in Vietnam, Thailand Is Slowest 15 Thailand Philippines Vietnam 5 (5) (15) orld India Revenue growth momentum is strongest in Vietnam, slowest in Thailand Pakistan market has been hit the hardest in 2017 so far Pakistan (25) Revenue growth, PTM (%) Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Note: MSCI Indices and bottom-up aggregate.

22 Net debt-to-equity, 2016 (%) Risk: Pakistan Is Nearly Debt-Free Compared to the Philippines Philippines Thailand India orld India and Thailand have moderate levels of debt Vietnam and Pakistan have low debt and low market volatility relative to the world index 40 Vietnam Pakistan eta, 1Y (x) Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Note: MSCI Indices and bottom-up aggregate.

23 FVMR Details of 5 Select Markets in Asia Our FVMR Methodology allows us to compare countries against Country FVMR Pages enchmarking stocks in each country against stocks in 77 countries globally FVMR: Fundamentals, Valuation, Momentum, and Risk ottom-up aggregation of non-financial companies India: 362, Pakistan: 98, Philippines: 114, Thailand: 384, Vietnam: 80

24 India: A. Stotz Four Elements Rank relative to the world* orst Neutral est Fundamentals Valuation (%) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Operating profit margin Net margin Asset turnover Return on assets Return on equity (x) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Price-to-sales Price-to-earnings Price-to-book PE-to-EPS growth (PEG) 3.1 na na EV/EIT Momentum Risk (%) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Revenue growth (2.4) Recurring EPS growth 6.0 (0.4) (4.8) Operating profit margin chg. (bps) (215.7) 10.6 (410.0) 6mth 3mth 1mth 3wk 1wk Price change (x) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Current ratio Net debt-to-equity (%) Times-interest-earned yr 2yr 1yr 6mth 3mth eta Note: enchmarking against 77 countries, bottom-up aggregation of 362 non-financial companies in India. Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Notes: *ars are decile rankings of the most recent period. **Past 12 months of published data. na = not available, nm = not meaningful. 24

25 Pakistan: A. Stotz Four Elements Rank relative to the world* orst Neutral est Fundamentals Valuation (%) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Operating profit margin Net margin Asset turnover Return on assets Return on equity (x) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Price-to-sales Price-to-earnings Price-to-book PE-to-EPS growth (PEG) EV/EIT Momentum Risk (%) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Revenue growth (8.5) (12.7) 5.7 Recurring EPS growth Operating profit margin chg. (bps) 27.3 (3.1) mth 3mth 1mth 3wk 1wk Price change (11.5) (6.4) (x) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Current ratio Net debt-to-equity (%) Times-interest-earned yr 2yr 1yr 6mth 3mth eta Note: enchmarking against 77 countries, bottom-up aggregation of 98 non-financial companies in Pakistan. Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Notes: *ars are decile rankings of the most recent period. **Past 12 months of published data. na = not available, nm = not meaningful. 25

26 Philippines: A. Stotz Four Elements Rank relative to the world* orst Neutral est Fundamentals Valuation (%) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Operating profit margin Net margin Asset turnover Return on assets Return on equity (x) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Price-to-sales Price-to-earnings Price-to-book PE-to-EPS growth (PEG) na EV/EIT Momentum Risk (%) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Revenue growth (1.6) Recurring EPS growth (2.5) Operating profit margin chg. (bps) (73.1) (48.0) (72.3) 6mth 3mth 1mth 3wk 1wk Price change (x) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Current ratio Net debt-to-equity (%) Times-interest-earned yr 2yr 1yr 6mth 3mth eta Note: enchmarking against 77 countries, bottom-up aggregation of 114 non-financial companies in Philippines. Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Notes: *ars are decile rankings of the most recent period. **Past 12 months of published data. na = not available, nm = not meaningful. 26

27 Thailand: A. Stotz Four Elements Rank relative to the world* orst Neutral est Fundamentals Valuation (%) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Operating profit margin Net margin Asset turnover Return on assets Return on equity (x) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Price-to-sales Price-to-earnings Price-to-book PE-to-EPS growth (PEG) na na EV/EIT Momentum Risk (%) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Revenue growth (10.3) (3.3) 2.2 Recurring EPS growth (17.0) (33.0) Operating profit margin chg. (bps) (54.7) (1.8) mth 3mth 1mth 3wk 1wk Price change (x) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Current ratio Net debt-to-equity (%) Times-interest-earned yr 2yr 1yr 6mth 3mth eta Note: enchmarking against 77 countries, bottom-up aggregation of 384 non-financial companies in Thailand. Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Notes: *ars are decile rankings of the most recent period. **Past 12 months of published data. na = not available, nm = not meaningful. 27

28 Vietnam: A. Stotz Four Elements Rank relative to the world* orst Neutral est Fundamentals Valuation (%) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Operating profit margin Net margin Asset turnover Return on assets Return on equity (x) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Price-to-sales Price-to-earnings Price-to-book PE-to-EPS growth (PEG) na 1.1 EV/EIT Momentum Risk (%) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Revenue growth Recurring EPS growth (5.1) 13.7 Operating profit margin chg. (bps) (111.8) (260.5) (119.6) (27.5) 6mth 3mth 1mth 3wk 1wk Price change (0.1) (x) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 PTM** Current ratio Net debt-to-equity (%) Times-interest-earned yr 2yr 1yr 6mth 3mth eta Note: enchmarking against 77 countries, bottom-up aggregation of 80 non-financial companies in Vietnam. Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Notes: *ars are decile rankings of the most recent period. **Past 12 months of published data. na = not available, nm = not meaningful. 28

29 FVMR Snapshot of 4 Select Markets in Asia Global overview India Philippines Thailand Vietnam FVMR: Fundamentals, Valuation, Momentum, and Risk

30 Global Equity FVMR Snapshot FUNDAMENTALS VALUATION MOMENTUM RISK ROE (%) DPR 1 (%) P/E (x) P/ (x) Δ EPS 2 (%) Δ Price 3 (%) Gearing 4 (%) σ Price 6 (%) YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 2 1Y YE16 PTM 5 3M 1Y orld Emerging markets Europe Latin America Asia Developed markets Europe Japan Asia North America Developed non-us Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Notes: 1 Dividend payout ratio, 2 Earnings per share year-on-year growth, 3 Price change in local currency, 4 Net debt-to-equity, 5 Gearing is bottom-up aggregate based on companies that report year end from 1 June to 31 May, e.g. YE16 includes companies with year end 1 June May 2017, 6 Price risk is annualized standard deviation. All YE are consensus estimates, except gearing. 30

31 Global Sectors FVMR Snapshot FUNDAMENTALS VALUATION MOMENTUM RISK ROE (%) DPR 1 (%) P/E (x) P/ (x) Δ EPS 2 (%) Δ Price 3 (%) Gearing 4 (%) σ Price 6 (%) YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 2 1Y YE16 PTM 5 3M 1Y orld (0.9) Energy Materials (1.8) Industrials Cons Disc (0.5) Cons Staples (1.5) Health Care (0.8) Financials (0.5) 25.9 na na Real Estate (3.6) 5.9 (1.7) na na na Info Tech (2.4) 26.6 (5.3) (5.5) Telecoms (3.2) 7.2 (0.6) Utilities (0.6) 5.6 (1.4) Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Notes: 1 Dividend payout ratio, 2 Earnings per share year-on-year growth, 3 Price change in local currency, 4 Net debt-to-equity, 5 Gearing is bottom-up aggregate based on companies that report year end from 1 June to 31 May, e.g. YE16 includes companies with year end 1 June May 2017, 6 Price risk is annualized standard deviation. All YE are consensus estimates, except gearing. 31

32 India Equity FVMR Snapshot FUNDAMENTALS VALUATION MOMENTUM RISK ROE (%) DPR 1 (%) P/E (x) P/ (x) Δ EPS 2 (%) Δ Price 3 (%) Gearing 4 (%) σ Price 6 (%) YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 2 1Y YE14 YE15 5 3M 1Y orld India (3.0) Energy (6.4) 16.2 (3.1) Materials (5.6) Industrials (4.7) Cons. Disc (3.1) Cons. Staples (3.7) Health Care (8.2) 31.6 (0.8) (22.4) Financials (2.7) 15.1 na na Real Estate na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na Info. Tech (0.8) (3.7) (36.1) (33.0) Telecom (75.0) (3.9) Utilities (3.4) Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Notes: 1 Dividend payout ratio, 2 Earnings per share year-on-year growth, 3 Price change in local currency, 4 Net debt-to-equity, 5 Gearing is bottom-up aggregate based on companies that report year end from 1 June to 31 May, e.g. YE15 includes companies with year end 1 June May 2016, 6 Price risk is annualized standard deviation. All YE are consensus estimates, except gearing. 32

33 Philippines Equity FVMR Snapshot FUNDAMENTALS VALUATION MOMENTUM RISK ROE (%) DPR 1 (%) P/E (x) P/ (x) Δ EPS 2 (%) Δ Price 3 (%) Gearing 4 (%) σ Price 6 (%) YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 2 1Y YE16 PTM 5 3M 1Y orld Philippines Energy na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na Materials na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na Industrials Cons. Disc (0.6) Cons. Staples (3.4) (18.1) Health Care na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na Financials na na Info. Tech. na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na Telecom (13.1) (3.2) (0.3) (2.1) Utilities (16.9) (13.1) Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Notes: 1 Dividend payout ratio, 2 Earnings per share year-on-year growth, 3 Price change in local currency, 4 Net debt-to-equity, 5 Gearing is bottom-up aggregate based on companies that report year end from 1 June to 31 May, e.g. YE16 includes companies with year end 1 June May 2017, 6 Price risk is annualized standard deviation. All YE are consensus estimates, except gearing. 33

34 Thailand Equity FVMR Snapshot FUNDAMENTALS VALUATION MOMENTUM RISK ROE (%) DPR 1 (%) P/E (x) P/ (x) Δ EPS 2 (%) Δ Price 3 (%) Gearing 4 (%) σ Price 6 (%) YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 2 1Y YE16 PTM 5 3M 1Y orld Thailand (0.8) Energy (0.1) Materials (0.6) Industrials (2.4) Cons. Disc (5.7) (0.8) Cons. Staples (0.7) Health Care Financials (2.9) 13.3 (2.1) 6.1 na na Real Estate na Info. Tech (0.9) (9.3) 5.5 (3.2) Telecom (4.6) 15.9 (0.6) Utilities (0.7) Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Notes: 1 Dividend payout ratio, 2 Earnings per share year-on-year growth, 3 Price change in local currency, 4 Net debt-to-equity, 5 Gearing is bottom-up aggregate based on companies that report year end from 1 June to 31 May, e.g. YE16 includes companies with year end 1 June May 2017, 6 Price risk is annualized standard deviation. All YE are consensus estimates, except gearing. 34

35 Vietnam Equity FVMR Snapshot FUNDAMENTALS VALUATION MOMENTUM RISK ROE (%) DPR 1 (%) P/E (x) P/ (x) Δ EPS 2 (%) Δ Price 3 (%) Gearing 4 (%) σ Price 6 (%) YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 YE17 YE18 2 1Y YE16 PTM 5 3M 1Y orld Vietnam (1.1) Energy nm (43.9) (13.9) 5.5 (7.0) Materials Industrials (3.4) Cons Disc Cons Staples (0.2) Health Care (24.2) (24.1) Financials (4.0) 19.9 (3.0) 30.5 na na Real Estate (3.3) Info Tech (4.8) (9.6) Telecoms na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na Utilities (2.4) (14.6) Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters. Notes: 1 Dividend payout ratio, 2 Earnings per share year-on-year growth, 3 Price change in local currency, 4 Net debt-to-equity, 5 Prior 12-months, 6 Price risk is annualized standard deviation. ottom-up aggregation of 88 Vietnamese companies. All YE are consensus estimates, except for gearing which is bottom-up aggregate. 35

36 Get our Equity FVMR Snapshot for FREE Every week you will receive the updated Equity FVMR Snapshot One page covers Fundamentals, Valuation, Momentum, and Risk (FVMR) After signing up you will receive a one-page PDF every Monday becomeabetterinvestor.net/fvmr-snapshots 36

37 Disclaimer This content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Readers should not consider statements made by the author(s) as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. hile the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The author(s) cannot be held liable for any actions taken as a result of reading this article. 37

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