Capital Market Outlook Q4 2017

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Capital Market Outlook Q4 2017"

Transcription

1 It amazes me how people are often more willing to act based on little or no data than to use data that is a challenge to assemble. - Robert Shiller Summary Capital Market Outlook Q4 207 The Yale Nobel laureate economist emphasizes data driven decision making. JWM has always taken that approach, both with investment recommendations and performance monitoring, and Professor Shiller is correct in pointing out that it can often be a challenge. We will continue to approach client portfolios using this strategy. The highlights of our outlook are as follows: The U.S. economic growth in the 2 nd Quarter was.%. The U.S. dollar has declined recently, with the potential impact for a positive impact on net trade balances. Total inflation remains well below Fed targets, both for core and headline statistics. The Fed has indicated at least one more interest rate increase in 207 and the start of its balance sheet reduction. U.S. equities are at the high end of historical valuations but earnings growth remains positive. Global growth is positive in most markets, and equity valuations are generally reasonable. Emerging market economic performance, perhaps other than China, is expected to continue to strengthen. Energy prices appear to have stabilized and activity remains high in economical oil and gas plays and midstream activity. Economy The final revision to U.S. 2 nd Quarter GDP was.%, more than double the st Quarter and the strongest since the st Quarter of 20 (Chart ). Growth was driven by private inventory building, an acceleration in personal consumption ( PCE ), and lower imports, while lower exports and residential fixed construction were a drag. The United States lost,000 jobs in September as the economy was impacted by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. It was the first monthly decline in jobs in seven years and also broke a 90 month streak of private sector job growth. The jobless rate dropped to 4.2%, the lowest since 200 (Chart 2). Inflation remains low in 207. The core CPI, less food and energy, rose 0.2% in August and.7% for the trailing year. The core PCE deflator, watched more closely by the Federal Reserve ( Fed ), was at.% for the trailing year, falling from the same statistic in July (Chart ). This is well below the Fed target of 2.0% and will likely remain benign for the near term. The continued low inflation has impacted Fed policy. The Fed objective of raising its policy interest rate was paused at the September meeting, although they did indicate another hike in 207. They also laid out their plan for unwinding their balance sheet and took a more aggressive stance than expected (Chart 4). The U.S. economy outlook remains positive. The September PMI issued by the Institute for Supply Management was 60.8, up 2% from August. Federal government regulation roll back continues, and while the recent hurricane damage had regional growth impact, the reconstruction will add to GDP activity. The effect of any tax rate reduction legislation, currently being discussed, likely will have a positive effect if passed. GDP forecasts for 207 have generally been revised upward, with the larger impact expected in 208. Earlier this year, international forecasters announced the first global growth upgrade since 200. August PMI readings for all but Korea and Thailand were above 0, the traditional level above which growth is expected. Developed markets are all solidly positive, although Asian emerging markets are weaker, and European emerging markets have experienced recent weakening. Developed Europe is forecasted to outperform the U.S. in economic growth both for this year and next. The weakening of the U.S. dollar relative to the Euro recently may affect the international trade balances in the forecasts (Chart ). The immigration issues in Europe, and the attendant political changes are still not fully resolved. Nevertheless Euroland growth is improving. Emerging markets are mixed. China continues to slow, but policy efforts in their election year are being made to support stable growth. Any major impact on international trade of recent Chinese currency upward valuations has not yet occurred. In the remaining emerging economies, growth expectations are slowing but are still positive. African economies are the wild card, with political issues outweighing economic activity. Event risks remain: North Korean belligerence, Chinese and Russian meddling, Middle East conflicts, and international terrorism.

2 Equity Markets U.S. equity markets continued to rise, supported in part by continued Fed liquidity. In the rd Quarter, the S&P 00 rose 4.% and the tech heavy NASDAQ composite advanced 6.2%. For the year to date, they were up 4.2% and 24.0%. Throughout 207, growth stocks have significantly outpaced value stocks. Corporate performance continues to grow, with the majority of U.S. companies beating revenue and/or earnings estimates in the 2 nd Quarter. For 208, earnings growth is expected to be in the 0% range with positive growth expected for the remainder of 207. Market volatility remains low, and while equity valuations are at the high end of historical ranges, they appear to be fullyrather than over valued (Chart 6). Further, the conditions for a market top, such as record inflows to equity market funds, increased IPO and merger activity, weakening earnings outlook, or widening credit spreads, are all absent. The slowing of the Fed response, GDP growth and the potential for tax rate reduction all support the continuation of stock market performance in the U.S., albeit with expected pullbacks along the way. International developed market equities also delivered a strong quarter with the MSCI ACWI ex US up 6.2%, and MSCI EAFE returning.4%. A portion of this performance was due to a weaker dollar, but primarily to strong performance in local currencies. Further, Euroland equity valuation, both on a priceto earnings basis, and price to book basis, are trading closer to historical averages than U.S. markets. Emerging market equities continue to rebound, with the MSCI Emerging Markets index up 7.9% for the quarter and 27.8% for the year to date. However, the performance is not uniform across all countries, and almost 6% of the index is weighted to four countries: China, South Korea, Taiwan, and India. Active management and country specific allocation remain the preferred method for investing in EM equities. Interest Rates The yield on the 0 U.S. Treasury continues to trade in a band between 2% and 2.% (Chart 7). The current fair value of the 0 Treasury is in the range of 2.4% to 2.6%, depending on assumptions of growth and inflation. The interest rate spreads in the U.S. remain tight, and there has not been any major steepening of the yield curve. Interest rate risk remains a concern. The high yield debt market continues to improve in credit quality and default reduction. With the modest increases in oil prices, the energy related high yield issues have improved. For the year to date, high yield bonds have returned 7%. While spreads have tightened, there is still an opportunity assuming additional credit quality improvements. Emerging market debt appears positive, but again is country specific. With the decline of the U.S. dollar, improvements in local currency returns are enhanced for U.S. investors. Energy and Commodities Oil markets are trading in the $0/Bbl WTI range (Chart 8). Saudi Arabia continues to promote production cuts to support prices, but there is disagreement among producers and the usual cheating. U.S. inventories were affected by Hurricane Harvey. With many shale plays profitable at this level, drilling has resumed. We expect U.S. production to continue an upward trend and hit record levels in 208. Natural gas prices continue to languish in the $/Mmcf range. This is partly due to lower than usual seasonal demand, and to uncertainty in the pace of coal to natural gas power generation with revisions to some coal regulation. Nevertheless, with increasing LNG exports, and high propane prices, we expect natural gas pricing to improve. Energy Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) After producing an 8.% return in 206, MLPs have underperformed in 207. The Alerian Index was down.% for the rd Quarter. MLP share prices have limited equity funding as a source of capital for existing MLPs. In addition, the midstream assets of exploration companies that were traditionally a source of growth for the MLP industry are instead being acquired by private equity capital. However, with active drilling requiring transportation and storage facilities, increasing construction of fractionation plants to capture liquids and flared gas, and increased LNG and oil exports including expansion plans, there is large demand for midstream capacity, both in transportation and processing. Throughout this period, distributions have remained steady or increased. The current yield of the MLP funds, which are tax efficient for current income, are generally approaching or even exceeding 0%. We continue to recommend MLPs. JWM Strategy Our Current Allocation Strategy is attached. We continue to emphasize an overweight allocation to U.S. equities relative to international, short duration for fixed income coupled with a diversified mix of non traditional income assets. We are closely monitoring core real estate assets, particularly in the multi family space, due to the high and continuing levels of new construction over the last few years and concerns about lease up in new projects. Thank you for your continued confidence in JWM.

3 Chart The final revision to U.S. 2 nd Quarter GDP was.%, more than double the st Quarter and the strongest since the st Quarter of 20. Growth was driven by private inventory building, an acceleration in personal consumption and lower imports. U.S. GDP Chart 2 The United States lost,000 jobs in September as the economy was impacted by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. It was the first monthly decline in jobs in seven years. The jobless rate dropped to 4.2%, the lowest since 200. he U.S. economy added 222,000 jobs in June. The unemployment rate rose slightly to U.S. Unemployment 4.4%, but this was due to an increase in the labor force participation rate. Average wages continue to increase, up 2.% for the trailing year. Source: Tradingeconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Chart Inflation remains low in 207. The core PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve s preferred measure was at.% for the trailing year, falling from July. This is well below the Fed target of 2.0% and will likely remain benign near term. U.S. Inflation Source: Yahoo Finance, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Chart 4 The Fed balance sheet run off will begin in Q4 207 at $0 Billion per month. The cap will be raised by $0 Billion each quarter until it reaches $0 Billion per month. There was no guidebook for the Fed's balance sheet to grow so large and there is no guidebook now on how to shrink it back down. Fed Balance Sheet Source: Advisor Perspectives, dshort.com Source: Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, Thomson Reuters

4 Source: FactSet. J.P. Morgan Asset Management Source: WTRG Economics Chart The U.S. dollar has declined for most of 207 before strengthening late in the rd quarter on hopes of tax rate reductions and reaffirmation of plans by the Fed to increase interest rates at the December FOMC meeting. U.S. Dollar Index Chart 6 Equity valuations are at the high end of historical ranges. However, the conditions for a market top, such as record inflows to equity market funds, increased IPO and merger activity, weakening earnings outlook, or widening credit spreads, are all absent. Domestic Equity Valuations Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Source: Factset, FRB, Thomson Reuters, Robert Shiller, S&P and J.P. Morgan Asset Management Chart 7 The yield curve continues to flatten. The yield on the 0 U.S. Chart 8 Oil markets are trading in the $0/Bbl WTI range. U.S. inventories were Treasury has been trading in a band between 2% and 2.%. The current fair value affected by Hurricane Harvey. With many shale plays profitable at this level, of the 0 Treasury is in the range of 2.4% to 2.6%, depending on assumptions drilling has resumed. We expect U.S. production to continue an upward trend and of growth and inflation. hit record levels in 208. U.S. Interest Rates Oil Prices & Active Rigs

5 JWM Current Allocation Strategy Q4 207 Overall portfolio target allocations reflect customized client Investment Policy. The current JWM strategy within various assets classes is outlined below: Income Assets Significant Neutral Significant Underweight Underweight Weight Overweight Overweight Target Within Income Assets Traditional Fixed Income 0% Cash & Equivalents US Government Bonds Municipal Bonds US Corporate Bonds High Yield Bonds Convertible Bonds Floating Rate/Bank Loans Eurozone Bonds Developed Markets Other Emerging Market Bonds Non Traditional Income Assets 0% Master Limited Partnerships (MLP's)/Energy Preferred Stocks Conservative Allocation Funds Diversified Income Equities Target Within Equities US Equities 6% Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Hedged Equity International % Eurozone Developed Markets Other Currency Hedged International Emerging Markets Alternative Investments Core Alternatives Opportunistic Alternatives Target Within Alternative Varies by Client

6 Market Index Returns - September 207 Equity Returns Income Asset Returns Russell Style Index Returns Q US Fixed Income Maturity & Quality Returns Q Large Cap Government/Corporate Mid Cap 2... Municipal Bonds Small Cap High Yield Value Blend Growth Short Intermediate Long Large Cap Government/Corporate Mid Cap Municipal Bonds Small Cap High Yield Value Blend Growth Short Intermediate Long - - Large Cap Government/Corporate (0.8) Mid Cap Municipal Bonds Small Cap High Yield Value Blend Growth Short Intermediate Long Domestic Equities Q - Traditional Fixed Income Q - Russell BofAML US Convertible S&P S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan.0.0. Dow Jones Industrial Average Barclays Global Aggregate Bond ex-usd (2.4) NASDAQ Composite JPM EMBI Global Diversified (USD) JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified (Local Currency) International Equities Non-Traditional Income Assets MSCI ACWI ex-us Alerian MLP Index (.) (.6) (.7) MSCI EAFE (Developed) BofA ML Preferred Stock Fixed Rate MSCI EAFE Hedged (Developed) DJ Mortgage REIT MSCI Emerging Markets Source: Morningstar; JWM believes the data is representative, but cannot guarantee its accuracy. All calculations represent total return and are annualized for periods exceeding year.

7 Market Index Returns - September 207 Broad Index Domestic Equity Traditional Fixed Income S&P Barclays US Treasury Bills MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Barclays US Treasury - Intermediate (0.6) 0..6 (0.7) S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Barclays Municipal (0.7) DJ Industrial Average Barclays Gov't/Corp - Intermediate (0.) NASDAQ 00 (0.) Barclays US Aggregate Bond (0.) Russell BofA ML US High Yield Master Russell BofAML US Convertible Russell Mid Cap S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Russell Barclays Global Aggregate Bond ex-usd (.) (2.4) 0.2 (0.7) 2.6 Style Index JPM EMBI Global Diversified Russell 000 Growth JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified (0.) (0.9).8 Russell 000 Value Non-Traditional Income Assets Russell Mid Cap Growth Alerian MLP Index 0.7 (.) (.6) (.7) (2.9) (0.6) 6. Russell Mid Cap Value BofA ML Preferred Stock Fixed Rate Russell 2000 Growth DJ Mortgage REIT Russell 2000 Value Income Assets 0 Broad Index International Equity MSCI ACWI Ex USA MSCI US REIT (0.) (0.7) MSCI EAFE CBOE S&P 00 Buywrite MSCI EAFE Hedged CBOE Market Volatility (VI) (0.2) (4.9) (2.) (28.4) (6.) (9.6) (6.2) MSCI EAFE Minimum Volatility Bloomberg Commodity (0.2) 2. (2.9) (0.) (0.4) (0.) (6.8) MSCI EM (0.4) S&P 00 Sectors 0 MSCI EM Minimum Volatility (0.) Energy (6.6) 0.2 (.7).0.0 MSCI Frontier Markets (.4) Materials Regional/Country Index Industrials MSCI Canada Consumer Discretionary MSCI UK Consumer Staples (0.9) (.4) MSCI EMU Health Care MSCI Japan Financials MSCI EM EMEA (.9) 6... (.) (.9) (.8) Information Technology MSCI EM Asia (0.0) Telecom Services. 6.8 (4.7) (0.) MSCI EM Latin America (0.) (.9) (0.8) Utilities (2.7) Index Miscellaneous 0

Capital Market Outlook Q3 2017

Capital Market Outlook Q3 2017 Economic progress, in capitalist society, means turmoil Josef A. Schumpeter Summary Capital Market Outlook Q 207 We are not sure that the economist and long time Harvard professor envisaged the type of

More information

Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 2017

Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 2017 Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 17 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence indicators

More information

Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 2018

Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 2018 Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 1 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence continue to

More information

MAY 2018 Capital Markets Update

MAY 2018 Capital Markets Update MAY 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS The U.S. added 223,000 jobs to payrolls in May, well above the consensus estimate of 180,000 and the expansion average of around 200,000. Sector job gains were

More information

Asset Strategy Consultants. MARKET ENVIRONMENT Third Quarter 2016

Asset Strategy Consultants. MARKET ENVIRONMENT Third Quarter 2016 MARKET ENVIRONMENT Third Quarter 2016 Market Environment: Economy Investor angst over the unexpected vote on Brexit was short lived with a "risk on" theme returning to the markets in July and leading to

More information

ACG Market Review. Second Quarter Global Highlights: Economy Announced tariffs have so far failed to slow down economic activity

ACG Market Review. Second Quarter Global Highlights: Economy Announced tariffs have so far failed to slow down economic activity ACG Market Review Second Quarter 2018 Global Highlights: Economy Announced tariffs have so far failed to slow down economic activity Equities U.S. equites turn positive for the year backed by strong corporate

More information

Economic and Capital Market Update April 2018

Economic and Capital Market Update April 2018 Economic and Capital Market Update April 2018 Apr-70 Apr-74 Apr-78 Apr-82 Apr-86 Apr-90 Apr-94 Apr-98 Apr-02 Apr-06 Apr-10 Apr-14 Apr-18 April 30, 2018 Economic Perspective The strong pace of the global

More information

Fourth Quarter Market Outlook. Kim Huebner, CFA Don Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA

Fourth Quarter Market Outlook. Kim Huebner, CFA Don Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Fourth Quarter 2017 Market Outlook Kim Huebner, CFA Don Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth Increasing, Spending Modest, Low Unemployment 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 GDP* Q3:

More information

Asset Strategy Consultants. MARKET ENVIRONMENT Second Quarter 2016

Asset Strategy Consultants. MARKET ENVIRONMENT Second Quarter 2016 MARKET ENVIRONMENT Second Quarter 2016 Market Environment: U.S. Economy The 2nd quarter was reasonably uneventful and markets were relatively placid until June 23rd, when British voters narrowly approved

More information

Asset Strategy Consultants. MARKET ENVIRONMENT First Quarter 2017

Asset Strategy Consultants. MARKET ENVIRONMENT First Quarter 2017 MARKET ENVIRONMENT First Quarter 2017 Market Environment: Economy Economies in the U.S. and Europe continued to gain traction. Expectations for lower taxes, reduced regulation, and other pro-growth reforms

More information

WEEKLY MARKET FLASH DATA AS OF FEBRUARY 2, Index definitions available upon request. 1 of 5. Total Return (%)

WEEKLY MARKET FLASH DATA AS OF FEBRUARY 2, Index definitions available upon request. 1 of 5. Total Return (%) WEEKLY MARKET FLASH DATA AS OF FEBRUARY 2, 2018 U.S. Equity Index Level 1 Week MTD QTD YTD 1 Year Global Equity USD 1 Week MTD QTD YTD 1 Year S&P 500 2,762 (3.81) (2.16) 3.44 3.44 23.54 DJIA 25,521 (4.11)

More information

Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri Monthly Economic & Capital Market Update

Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri Monthly Economic & Capital Market Update Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri 63105 314.727.7211 Monthly Economic & Capital Market Update November 2015 Yield to Maturity Monthly Change Nov-63 Nov-67 Nov-71

More information

Economic and Capital Market Update November 2017

Economic and Capital Market Update November 2017 Economic and Capital Market Update November 2017 Oct-69 Oct-73 Oct-77 Oct-81 Oct-85 Oct-89 Oct-93 Oct-97 Oct-01 Oct-05 Oct-09 Oct-13 Oct-17 November 30, 2017 Economic Perspective Economy Global economic

More information

SEPTEMBER 2018 Capital Markets Update

SEPTEMBER 2018 Capital Markets Update SEPTEMBER 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS Non-farm payrolls added 134,000 jobs in September, missing the consensus estimate of 185,000. However, net revisions to the two months prior totaled +87,000

More information

OCTOBER 2018 Capital Markets Update

OCTOBER 2018 Capital Markets Update OCTOBER 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS U.S. real GDP grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 3.5% (3. YoY) in Q3, beating expectations of 3.4%. The economy was supported by the strongest consumer

More information

Economic and Market Overview

Economic and Market Overview Economic and Market Overview 2017 Envestnet, Inc. All rights reserved. FOR ONE-ON-ONE USE WITH A CLIENT S FINANCIAL ADVISOR ONLY. 1 The following commentary summarizes prior financial market activity,

More information

Investment Research Team Update

Investment Research Team Update Economic & Market Commentary Market Update February 2015 February was a great month for global stocks! The S&P 500 ( large cap stocks) was up 5.7% and small stocks (Russell 2000) gained 5.9%. The jobs

More information

Economic and Market Overview Second Quarter Economic and Market Overview

Economic and Market Overview Second Quarter Economic and Market Overview Economic and Market Overview 1 The following commentary summarizes prior financial market activity and uses data obtained from public sources. This commentary is intended for one-on-one use with a client

More information

Q MARKETS REVIEW

Q MARKETS REVIEW Stock markets around the world continued their ascent during the quarter as investors took solace in continuing corporate earnings growth, fueled by strong global economic growth, and U.S. tax cuts. Overview

More information

Market Update: Broad Market Returns and Indicators

Market Update: Broad Market Returns and Indicators Market Update Eckler Ltd. collects information directly from sources believed to be reliable. Eckler Ltd. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of the information either

More information

Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report. June 2014

Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report. June 2014 Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report June 1 Overview of the Economy In the U.S., the Federal Reserve s Beige Book report on the economy through late May indicated that

More information

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa. Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key

More information

DECEMBER 2018 Capital Markets Update

DECEMBER 2018 Capital Markets Update DECEMBER 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 312,000 in December, well above expectations for a 176,000 increase. The healthcare sector (+50,000) led job creation, while restaurants

More information

Global Market Overview

Global Market Overview First Quarter 219 First Quarter 219: March Madness, or Just an Incredible Rebound? Global Market Overview MSCI All Country World S&P Russell 2 MSCI EAFE MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI ACWI ex USA Small BBgBarc

More information

Diversification Pays While Low Inflation Stays

Diversification Pays While Low Inflation Stays Diversification Pays While Low Inflation Stays May 2, 2016 by Brad Tank of Neuberger Berman Neither rising rates nor rising defaults would spell the end of opportunistic, diversified fixed income. There

More information

Capital Market Review

Capital Market Review Capital Market Review September 3, 215 Percent Percent MARKET/ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Risk Reprices Rapidly 2,2 1,9 1,6 1,3 S&P 5 April 29, 211 to Oct 3, 211 157 Days -19.4% May 21, 215 to Sep 3, 215 132 Days

More information

Fresno County Employees' Retirement Association

Fresno County Employees' Retirement Association Fresno County Employees' Retirement Association Investment Performance Review Period Ending: December 31, 2006 999 Third Avenue, Suite 3650 2321 Rosecrans Avenue, Suite 2250 Seattle, Washington 98104 El

More information

Eric C. Elbell, CFA, CAIA Area Senior Vice President. Kyongdo Min, CPA, CFA Area Vice President. April 11, 2018

Eric C. Elbell, CFA, CAIA Area Senior Vice President. Kyongdo Min, CPA, CFA Area Vice President. April 11, 2018 Eric C. Elbell, CFA, CAIA Area Senior Vice President Kyongdo Min, CPA, CFA Area Vice President April 11, 2018 Agenda We will address three key topics: Headline events that impacted markets during the quarter

More information

Summit Strategies Group

Summit Strategies Group As of December 3, 203 US Equity: All Cap Russell 3000 Index 2.64 0.0 33.55 33.55 6.24 8.7 6.50 7.88 7.09 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index 2.63 0. 33.47 33.47 6.23 8.86 6.68 8.0 6.90 US Equity: Large

More information

April 2016 Market Commentary

April 2016 Market Commentary April 2016 Market Commentary Domestic equity indices finished the month mixed, while international developed markets ended higher. The falling U.S. dollar continued to reverberate across markets, especially

More information

Summit Strategies Group

Summit Strategies Group April 0, 205 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index 0.45 5.9 2.26 2.74 6.86 4. 8.68 8.66 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index 0.46 5.9 2.27 2.67 6.78 4.7 8.78 8.8 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index

More information

Investment Perspectives. From the Global Investment Committee

Investment Perspectives. From the Global Investment Committee Investment Perspectives From the Global Investment Committee Introduction Domestic equities continued to race ahead during the fourth quarter of 2014 amid spikes in volatility, dramatic declines in oil

More information

Portfolio Strategist Update from The Dreyfus Corporation

Portfolio Strategist Update from The Dreyfus Corporation Portfolio Strategist Update from The Dreyfus Corporation Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Dec. 31, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. (Ameriprise Financial) is the investment manager for Active

More information

MARCH 2018 Capital Markets Update

MARCH 2018 Capital Markets Update MARCH 2018 Market commentary ECONOMIC CLIMATE Hiring slowed from its fast pace last month the U.S. added 103,000 jobs to nonfarm payrolls in March, below the consensus estimate of 185,000. The U-3 unemployment

More information

Market Update: Broad Market Returns and Indicators

Market Update: Broad Market Returns and Indicators Market Update Eckler Ltd. collects information directly from sources believed to be reliable. Eckler Ltd. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of the information either

More information

Q2 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015

Q2 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015 Q2 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins

More information

2016 Investment Outlook: Crosscurrents

2016 Investment Outlook: Crosscurrents 216 Investment Outlook: Crosscurrents January 13, 216 MODERATED BY: Celia Dallas Chief Investment Strategist Wade O Brien Managing Director, Global Investment Research Christopher Hunter Managing Director,

More information

Economic and Market Overview Fourth Quarter Economic and Market Overview

Economic and Market Overview Fourth Quarter Economic and Market Overview Economic and Market Overview 1 The following commentary summarizes prior financial market activity, and uses data obtained from public sources. This commentary is intended for one-on-one use with a client

More information

Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri Monthly Economic & Capital Market Update

Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri Monthly Economic & Capital Market Update Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri 63105 314.727.7211 Monthly Economic & Capital Market Update July 2015 Yield to Maturity Monthly Change Jul-63 Jul-67 Jul-71 Jul-75

More information

Summit Strategies Group

Summit Strategies Group US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index -.69 2.40.9 6.22 0.59 4.7 2.79 9.78 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index -.70 2.4.4 6.2 0.55 4.2 2.76 9.8 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index -.67 2.75.62 6.70

More information

Summit Strategies Group

Summit Strategies Group US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index.72 7.7 5.67 26.29 9.92.85.87 7.64 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index - - - - - - - - US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index.87 7.95 5.96 25.5 0.9.94.9 7.69 Russell

More information

NOVEMBER 2018 Capital Markets Update

NOVEMBER 2018 Capital Markets Update NOVEMBER 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS Non-farm payrolls added 155,000 jobs in November, missing expectations of 198,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. The labor force participation

More information

Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War

Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 2 2018 on 3 April 2018 Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Investment Outlook for 2 nd Quarter 2018 Equity Thailand U.S. Europe Japan Asia Bond Thailand

More information

Table 1: Economic Growth Measures

Table 1: Economic Growth Measures US Equities continued to advance in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 returning 5.2% for the quarter and 7.1% for the first half. Energy was by far the best performing sector in the quarter, returning

More information

ASSET ALLOCATION REPORT

ASSET ALLOCATION REPORT 2018 ASSET ALLOCATION REPORT INTRODUCTION We invite you to review Omnia Family Wealth s 2018 report on expected asset class returns for the next 10 years. While we believe these forecasts reflect a reasonable

More information

BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO. Summary Outlook

BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO. Summary Outlook BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO Summary Outlook January 15, 2019 Markets in 2019 will be choppy with volatility more like this past year than the placid trading of 2017. The Fed is

More information

Summit Strategies Group

Summit Strategies Group May, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index 2.82.4 2.55 5.06 0.72 2.85 2.6 9.2 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index 2.8.5 2.57 5.09 0.68 2.78 2.58 9.27 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index 2.55 0.57

More information

Summit Strategies Group

Summit Strategies Group June 0, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index 0.65.89.22 4.78.58.29.0 0.2 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index 0.66.87.25 4.79.56.22 2.98 0.28 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index 0.65.57 2.85 4.54.64.7.2

More information

Summit Strategies Group

Summit Strategies Group August, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index.5 7.65 0.9 20.25 5.86 4.25 5.50 0.89 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index.48 7.64 0.4 20.26 5.82 4.2 5.45 0.94 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index.45

More information

Summit Strategies Group

Summit Strategies Group October, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index -7.6 -.95 2.4 6.60.27 0.8.8.5 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index -7.4-4.04 2.9 6.56.24 0.76.75.6 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index -7.08 -.5 2.67

More information

First Quarter 2017 Investment Review. Prepared by: Meketa Investment Group CHICAGO, IL (312)

First Quarter 2017 Investment Review. Prepared by: Meketa Investment Group CHICAGO, IL (312) First Quarter 2017 Investment Review Prepared by: Meketa Investment Group CHICAGO, IL 60661 (312) 474-0900 MARKET SUMMARY - 1Q17 CAPITAL MARKETS Index MARKET SNAPSHOT MARCH 31, 2017 Qtr One Year Three

More information

ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWPOINTS

ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWPOINTS T. Rowe Price ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWPOINTS Q2 2017 Stocks vs. Bonds We increased our underweight to stocks relative to bonds as equity valuations appear extended against a backdrop of continued modest economic

More information

Summit Strategies Group

Summit Strategies Group October, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index -7.6 -.95 2.4 6.60.27 0.8.8.5 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index -7.4-4.04 2.9 6.56.24 0.76.75.6 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index -7.08 -.5 2.67

More information

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010 Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com

More information

Pioneer Compass A Quarterly Update on the Direction of the Markets

Pioneer Compass A Quarterly Update on the Direction of the Markets Pioneer Compass A Quarterly Update on the Direction of the Markets Q1 2016 / As of April 2016 The views expressed in this presentation are those of Pioneer, and are subject to change at any time. These

More information

2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015

2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015 2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline 4.5 10-Year Government Yield 4 3.5

More information

Fourth Quarter 2015 Market Review. March 2016

Fourth Quarter 2015 Market Review. March 2016 Fourth Quarter 2015 Market Review March 2016 Agenda Market Review Investment Outlook and Portfolio Positioning 2 2015 was a Challenging Year for Investment Returns Last year was the first time since 2001

More information

Tracking the Growth Catalysts in Emerging Markets

Tracking the Growth Catalysts in Emerging Markets Tracking the Growth Catalysts in Emerging Markets September 14, 2016 by Nick Niziolek of Calamos Investments The following is an excerpt of remarks made on August 30, 2016. The majority of the improved

More information

Cash Management Portfolios

Cash Management Portfolios September 30, 2018 Portfolio Manager Commentary Cash Management Portfolios Chief Investment Officer Jim Palmer What market conditions had a direct impact on the bond market this quarter? Positive economic

More information

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global

More information

Economic Outlook. DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months

Economic Outlook. DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months Economic Outlook DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months GDP growth will be modest at approximately 2.5%, but the economy will experience periods of unstable growth. Consumer confidence will improve as

More information

TEL FAX cookstreetconsulting.com

TEL FAX cookstreetconsulting.com TEL 303.333.7770 1.800.318.7770 FAX 303.333.7771 cookstreetconsulting.com Contents 1 Market Review 2 Plan Overview 3 Investment Due Diligence Appendix Appendix 3 1 Market Review 5 Q2 2017 Economic Review

More information

Retirement System Pension Plan Investment Performance Review Quarter Ended June 30, 2014

Retirement System Pension Plan Investment Performance Review Quarter Ended June 30, 2014 Retirement System Pension Plan Investment Performance Review Quarter Ended June 30, 2014 Investment Advisors John Spagnola, Managing Director Joseph Federico, Analyst PFM Asset Management LLC Two Logan

More information

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond

More information

SAGE INSIGHTS MONTHLY ECONOMIC & MARKET ANALYSIS

SAGE INSIGHTS MONTHLY ECONOMIC & MARKET ANALYSIS SAGE INSIGHTS MONTHLY ECONOMIC & MARKET ANALYSIS Core Bonds, U.S. and Developed Market Foreign Stocks Gain in July August 2015 Overview In July, prices of core bonds and large-cap domestic and foreign

More information

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa. Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report

More information

ECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION

ECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION ECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION Smith Shellnut Wilson is a registered investment adviser* specializing in managing investment portfolios for banks, individuals, corporations, foundations and

More information

Fourth Quarter Market Outlook. Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA

Fourth Quarter Market Outlook. Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Outlook Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth: Strong 2018, But Expecting Slowdown in 2019 Growth & Jobs 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014

More information

Current Yield Curves. High-Grade Municipal Bonds 5.00% 5.00% 0.00% % 4.00% 2.00%

Current Yield Curves. High-Grade Municipal Bonds 5.00% 5.00% 0.00% % 4.00% 2.00% FCI ADVISORS YIELD ANALYSIS December 4, 2018 U.S. Treasury Treasury Yields Yields Municipal Muni Bond Yields Yields 1 U.S. Agency Agency Yields Yields - Active Bonds Coupon Maturity YTM Maturity YTM Tax-Equiv.

More information

Global Economics Monthly Review

Global Economics Monthly Review Global Economics Monthly Review January 8 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global

More information

Peralta Community College District Investment Performance Update

Peralta Community College District Investment Performance Update Peralta Community College District Investment Performance Update February 25, 2016 Neuberger Berman Trust Company N.A. Table of Contents I. INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE REVIEW AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2015 II. INVESTMENT

More information

MACRO CHART BOOK Q2, 2016

MACRO CHART BOOK Q2, 2016 Adaptive Investing MACRO CHART BOOK Q2, 2016 Upside Participation Downside Management For Investment Advisors and Institutions Only Content Summary US Economy Market Snapshot Asset Class Performance Equity

More information

Making Sense of Markets Q2 2017

Making Sense of Markets Q2 2017 Making Sense of Markets Q2 2017 Quarterly Performance 2017 LWI Financial Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized copying, reproducing, duplicating, or transmitting of this material is prohibited. This webinar

More information

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com

More information

Monthly Bulletin May J.P. Morgan Luxembourg based fund ranges

Monthly Bulletin May J.P. Morgan Luxembourg based fund ranges Monthly Bulletin May 2018 J.P. Morgan Luxembourg based fund ranges Performance summary for Equity Fund Range EQUITY US A (dist) - USD 2.1-5.3 14.9 33.1 79.9 14.6 15.7-1.0 8.2 25.2 JPM America Equity A

More information

Quarterly Market Review

Quarterly Market Review Quarterly Market Review THEMES FOR THE QUARTER Emerging Markets the Standout in Mixed Q1 Global Equity Returns Developed Markets Positive; Australia and NZ Negative Value Premium Positive in Emerging Markets;

More information

Market Commentary - 2nd Quarter 2017

Market Commentary - 2nd Quarter 2017 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 1 Years As the economy picks up we will need to be gradual when adjusting our policy parameters, so as to ensure that our stimulus accompanies the recovery amid the

More information

City of Fort Walton Beach, Florida Beal Memorial Cemetery Perpetual Care Fund

City of Fort Walton Beach, Florida Beal Memorial Cemetery Perpetual Care Fund City of Fort Walton Beach, Florida Beal Memorial Cemetery Perpetual Care Fund Investment Performance Review Investment Advisors Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, CPPT, Managing Director Khalid Yasin, CIMA,

More information

Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*

Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table* July 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Economy Continues to Expand in Mid-218, But Trade Remains

More information

P R E S E N T S. U.S. Economic Outlook Virtuous Growth

P R E S E N T S. U.S. Economic Outlook Virtuous Growth P R E S E N T S U.S. Economic Outlook Virtuous Growth December 2013 Presenter Robin Wehbé, CFA, CMT Director (617) 722-3965 Robin is the Lead Portfolio Manager on the Global Natural Resources Long/Short

More information

The international environment

The international environment The international environment This article (1) discusses developments in the global economy since the August 1999 Quarterly Bulletin. Domestic demand growth remained strong in the United States, and with

More information

Economic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014)

Economic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014) Economic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014) Our economic outlook for the fourth quarter of 2014 for the U.S. is continued slow growth. We stated in our 3 rd quarter Economic

More information

Target Funds. SEMIANNual REPORT

Target Funds. SEMIANNual REPORT SEMIANNual REPORT November 30, 2017 T. Rowe Price Target Funds The funds invest in a diversified portfolio of T. Rowe Price mutual funds, offering a professionally managed, age-appropriate mix of stocks

More information

Market volatility to continue

Market volatility to continue How much more? Renewed speculation that financial institutions may report increased US subprime-related losses has sent equity markets tumbling. How much more bad news can investors expect going forward?

More information

February market performance. Equity Markets Index Price Indices. Property Index Price Index

February market performance. Equity Markets Index Price Indices. Property Index Price Index MARCH 2017 In February, global equity markets continued to trend higher boosted by optimism about US growth and reasonably good economic and corporate earnings data. In the United States, the Standard

More information

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review October 16 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global

More information

Portfolio Navigator funds Quarterly performance and commentary

Portfolio Navigator funds Quarterly performance and commentary Navigator funds Quarterly performance and commentary June 30, 2018 291426 AA VUL (7/18) The Navigator funds Performance Quarter ending 6/30/18 3 month YTD 1 year 3 year 5 year Since Inception* (Class 2)

More information

Retirement Funds. SEMIANNual REPORT

Retirement Funds. SEMIANNual REPORT SEMIANNual REPORT November 30, 2017 T. Rowe Price Retirement Funds The funds invest in a diversified portfolio of T. Rowe Price mutual funds, offering a professionally managed, age-appropriate mix of stocks

More information

SIP Aggressive Portfolio

SIP Aggressive Portfolio SIP LIFESTYLE PORTFOLIOS FACT SHEET (NOV 2015) SIP Aggressive Portfolio SIP Aggressive Portfolio is a unitized fund, which is designed to provide long term capital growth. It is designed for those who

More information

Market Commentary for Q2 2018

Market Commentary for Q2 2018 Market Commentary for Q2 2018 Our Commitment to You: Periodically, it is helpful to the people we service, our clients, to re-affirm who we are at Crew Capital Mgmt. We don t just manage money. We help

More information

Market Watch. July Review Global economic outlook. Australia

Market Watch. July Review Global economic outlook. Australia Market Watch Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. Global economic outlook Australia Available data for the June quarter is consistent with a moderation in GDP growth

More information

US Economic Outlook Improving

US Economic Outlook Improving Government Bonds Have Never Looked Less Attractive OUTLOOK Executive Summary Kenneth J. Taubes Chief Investment Officer, US Economic Outlook US GDP growth may lead growth among developed nations, at approximately

More information

Wells Fargo Target Date CITs E3

Wells Fargo Target Date CITs E3 All information is as of 12-31-17 unless otherwise indicated. Overview General fund information Fund sponsor and manager: Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. Fund advisor: Wells Capital Management Inc. Portfolio manager:

More information

Third Quarter Market Review

Third Quarter Market Review Third Quarter Market Review The S&P 500 continued its winning streak, with the index appreciating in value by 3.96% for the quarter (see chart below). This market barometer was up all three months of the

More information

Market Review and Outlook. Todd Centurino, CFA

Market Review and Outlook. Todd Centurino, CFA Market Review and Outlook Todd Centurino, CFA Q1 2017 Global Economy: On the Upswing Ranked Returns (%) Emerging Market Equities 11.40 European Equities 7.40 US Equities 6.10 Global Bonds 2.00 US Treasuries

More information

FIVE KEYS TO EMERGING MARKET OUTLOOK John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

FIVE KEYS TO EMERGING MARKET OUTLOOK John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS We favor emerging market and U.S. equities for tactical asset allocations based primarily on our outlooks for global economic growth and earnings. We

More information

Returns among non-us equity markets were even higher. The MSCI World ex USA Index, which reflects non-us

Returns among non-us equity markets were even higher. The MSCI World ex USA Index, which reflects non-us 2017 Market Review At the beginning of 2017, a common view among money managers and analysts was that the financial markets would not repeat their strong returns from 2016. Many cited the uncertain global

More information

FAS Monthly Economic & Market Update

FAS Monthly Economic & Market Update FAS Monthly Economic & Market Update December 2016 As of Nov 30, 2016 Copyright 2016 Financial Advisory Service, Inc. 1 Contents Economic Conditions 3 Market Conditions 4 A Leg-Up for Active Management?.....

More information

Financial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised

Financial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure

More information

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008 Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com

More information