8/17/2015. Lisa M. Grantland Product Manager, Epicor

Transcription

1 Lisa M. Granland Produc Manager, Epicor 1

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3 Release 879 Enhancemen UFO Enhancemen Commiee Addiions and Fixes in Addiional forecasing ools Updae Demand unchanged Deermining Seasonaliy Paern 3 New Forecas Mehods Bes Fi, and Auo-Assign Bes Fi Enhanced Graphing 3

4 Help me forecas beer, wih more opions Eclipse doesn reac o rends soon enough Seasonaliy is a manual process, how do I know if ha s he forecas I should use? I d like more han one year of hisory o be considered for forecasing I wan a new screen o see all of he new daa in 4

5 Advanced Forecasing Analysis Buy Line and Targe Seasonaliy Paern Resuls of all 6 Forecass Bes Fi vs. Curren Mehod Graph Sales or Forecass 5

6 Calculaion Deails Forecass vs Acual Sales 6

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8 Auocorrelaion Funcion (ACF) Wides used ool in imeseries analysis Group and plo sales hisory (4 week buckes) Do he sales for an iem show a seasonal paern? And if so how confiden is ha saemen? Informaional Only 8

9 Seasonal or Non-Seasonal by Produc by Branch Does no correlae o Seasonal Forecas Mehod PROD.CALC.BR Aribues Seasonaliy Saus (Ar 29, V4) Seasonaliy Correlaion (Ar 29, V5) Resuls of ACF Error Margin / Confidence Level (Ar 29, V6) Seasonal ACF >.30 Error <.50 Mahemaical Calculaion: How likely is his iem o be Seasonal? I does no PROVE seasonaliy 9

10 Seasonal Iem 5 years Sales Graph Visually does i look Seasonal? Sales increase Feb/Mar Sales decrease July Sales increase Ocober 10

11 Non-Seasonal Iem 5 years Sales Graph Visually does i look Seasonal? Increases occur in March, or May, or June Sales fla in winer monhs No Seasonal, hough could be 11

12 Seasonaliy Tes: choosing producs Do you wan iems wih low his considered for Seasonal? Can you deec seasonaliy wih minimal hisory? 12

13 Seasonaliy Tes: choosing forecass Exclude/Include Seasonal Forecass Manual Seasonal Iems Eclipse Seasonaliy Paern 13

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15 Weighed average of hisorical sales Compared o prior sales period (weekly) Smoohed o accoun for excepions Weigh on more recen sales F = Y + (1 ) F α α + 1 F = Forecas a= alpha (calculaed smoohing level) = Time period Y = Acual Sales 15

16 16 Adds Trend o Single Exponenial Smoohing F = Forecas a= alpha (calculaed smoohing level) = Time period Y = Acual Sales B = bea (calculaed smoohing for rend) m b L F b L L b b L Y L m + = + = + + = ) (1 ) ( ) )( (1 β β α α

17 17 Adds Seasonaliy o Hol F = Forecas a= alpha (calculaed smoohing level) = Time period Y = Acual Sales B = bea (calculaed smoohing for rend) S = gamma (calculaed seasonaliy smoohing) m s m s s S m b L F S L Y S b L L b b L S Y L = + = + = + + = ) ( ) (1 ) (1 ) ( ) )( ( γ γ β β α α

18 His based on Raw His Capured during sandard Updae Demand Max Hisory limied o PSUB hisory Cauion: Seing his oo low may no produce desired resuls 18

19 Smoohing Facor Max Values Examples on nex slides No necessary o adjus Smoohing Facors 19

20 Alpha differences Acual Widge Sales No Alpha Forecas.05 Alpha Forecas.15 Alpha Forecas Alpha Forecas 6000 Single Exponenial Smoohing

21 14000 Bea differences Acual Widge Sales Bea.05 Bea.15 Bea.25 Hol

22 Gamma differences Acual Widge Sales Hol-Winers

23 Excel Spreadshee available for all 3 formulas Plug in weekly sales daa Adjus alpha/bea/gamma lgranland@epicor.com o reques a copy 23

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25 Same opions as sandard Updae Demand Can deselec one or more new forecas mehods Seasonal iems depend on Conrol Record 25

26 5 Processes o Run Sandard Updae Demand will overwrie Advanced Exising Updae Demand Seasonaliy Forecas Muliple Mehods Deermine Bes Fi Auo-Assign Bes Fi (opional) Can se eiher Forecas for specific Buy Lines 26

27 Exising Updae Demand Runs sandard demand forecas for all producs Lead Time uses Non Sock producs Iems ha will no qualify for Advanced Demand are complee As of Dae forced o las week of complee sales Sunday begins each week Allows comparison of consisen daa Updae Demand 27

28 Seasonaliy Runs Seasonaliy Paern Tes If iem mees minimum his and hisory for branch Seasonaliy 28

29 Forecas Muliple Mehods Does iem qualify for Advanced Demand Minimum His Forecas going back 52 weeks for each mehod Runs Updae Demand 52 imes for 3 sandard mehods Allows for Bes Fi Comparison Forecas Muliple Mehods Seing Minimum His oo low increases run ime Should you use advanced mehods for slow movers? 29

30 Deermine Bes Fi Compare acual sales o hisorical forecas Calculae Mean Squared Error for each week (Sales Forecas) 2 Lowes MSE = Bes Fi Forecas Muliple Mehods 30

31 Auo-Assign Bes Fi (opional) Opional Seing in Updae Advanced Demand Ses Curren Mehod = Bes Fi Auo Assign Bes Fi Will updae sandard seings, i.e. Seasonal 31

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33 Primary Invenory Mainenance Edi menu Saus bar indicaion (Solar Only) 33

34 Produc Images display View Manager 34

35 Graph Forecas Comparisons OR Sales Hisory 35

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