Presented by : Ali Muhammad Lakdawala. GLOBOIL 2017, Mumbai
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1 "Revisiting Asian Financial Crisis for Envisioning Commodity Market Outlook Presented by : Ali Muhammad Lakdawala ITC Ltd (Foods Division) alimuhammad.lakdawala@itc.in GLOBOIL 2017, Mumbai
2 Disclaimer Views shared in the paper are author s view and not to be considered as company s view or being endorsed by company which author represents.
3 Why Revisiting 1997 Crisis???
4 WORLD BANK REPORT 1993 EAST ASIA HAS A REMARKABLE RECORD OF HIGH AND SUSTAINED economic growth. From 1965 to 1990 economies of East Asia grew faster than all other regions. Compared with other developing economies, they have lower and declining levels of inequality. Rapid growth and improving equity are the defining characteristics of the East Asian miracle
5 ECONOMIST COVER 1997 NOT so long ago, the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) was on a roll. Most of its members were enjoying political stability and economic growth rates that were the envy of the world. Suddenly it looks less sure of itself. One member, Thailand, faces economic catastrophe
6 Abstract The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbusch The above quote by German Economist holds good while analysing 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, as region enjoyed decades of buoyant growth, suddenly what started out as a currency crisis (Thai Baht) with large devaluation of domestic currencies, quickly evolved into a financial crisis in which banks were unable to repay their foreign debts. In turn, this lead to an economic crisis as domestic firms were starved of credit and went bankrupt : illiquidity turned quickly into insolvency. Was Asian economy's growth model flawed or was it due to MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA : both good and bad due to which an external event triggered a move from a good to a bad one or was it a Commodity /Resource Curse??? The purpose of this paper is to shed some light on this questions, post which it will analyse how it impacted Key Commodities. Followed by understanding the on-going tectonic shift in global growth as baton gets exchanged between developed & developing nations. Finally concluding with analysing the market structure for commodities and estimating the price forecasts for next year.
7 Presentation Flow Asia Growth Story Was it really Asia Financial Crisis??? Impact on Commodities Current Scenario What NEXT??? Commodity Market Structure
8 VUCA ASIA GROWTH STORY Rapid economic growth, Persistence of rapid economic growth an unprecedented long period of economic expansion, Moderate Inflation & Political stability
9 WMD Where are they???"
10 WMD Where are they???"
11 WMD Where are they???"
12 Was it really ASIA FINANCIAL CRISIS??? VUCA Capital inflows, especially when volatile, denominated in foreign currencies and not properly hedged against exchange rate risks, may pose macroeconomic and financial problems in the recipient economy
13
14 GDP Volume of Exports Thailand : GDP vs Volume of Export (% Change) GDP % Change Volume of Exports % Change
15
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17 VUCA IMPACT ON COMMODITIES Most populous region of the world needs resources to feed & fuel its economy : hence key influencer in commodity market
18 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Nov-98 Dec Brent Crude $/bbl
19 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Nov-98 Dec Copper ($/MT)
20 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Nov-98 Dec Dollar Index
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22 Global Oils & Fats : production & consumption (Y-o-Y Change MMT) 7 Oils & Fats Production Oils & Fats Consumption
23
24 World Oils & Fats Export Share 1997 Rapeseed Oil, 5.93% Others, 23.00% Palm Oil, 40.40% Sun Oil, 9.77% Soy Oil, 20.90%
25 3.50 India Palm Oil Imports (MMT)
26 VUCA CURRENT SCENARIO Fast Forwarding from 1997 to 2017
27 Era of VUCA : Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity reflecting an unstable and rapidly changing economic environment
28 Global Growth Engine Emerging Economies growth was dependent on Developed Economies Consumption Model. It has now reversed back to Developed countries with high amount of uncertaininty BRIC Volume of Exports of Goods & Services (%) World GDP (%) World GDP vs BRIC Volume of Exports of Goods & Services 35 Brazil Russia India China World GDP Tech Bubble Growth Driven by Excess Liquidity Subprime Slowdown Recovery??? Crisis
29 THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN (by) CENTRAL BANKERS : are we getting ready to live in an era of rising interest rates??? Within the year s time we have started to see significant change in interest rates movement across the globe & FED looks more aggressive compared to others Interest Rates % US Japan Sweden Denmark Switzerland
30 THE KISS OF DEBT (Made in China) We have seen the downturn in history has always been made in US of A but next downturn will be made in China. With its ever growing debt which has resulted in its current account balance detoriating in last 10years in comparison to developed nations like US & Japan. AT PRESNET CHINA IS IN CATCH 22 situation & can explode anytime Current Account Balance % of GDP Argentina Brazil China India Japan Russia United States
31 VUCA WHAT NEXT??? It s Gonna be 4D World
32 DEGLOBALISATION increasing PROTECTIONISM & TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT will inflict pain in GLOBAL TRADE
33 DEPOPULATION Time bomb Aging population may explode for that reason countries need to be more accommodative towards refuges else economy wheel will get rusted & will not generate enough growth
34 DEMONITISATION a sudden shift towards demonetisation would slow down growth engine also it opens up major risk of Cyber Crime
35 DEBT GLUT is rising across
36 VUCACOMMODITY MARKET STRUCTURE
37 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q China GDP Metal Index Chinese GDP vs Metal Index Chinese GDP expenditure method considered which totals consumption, investment, government spending and net exports. It is the most common way to estimate GDP, and it says everything that the private sector, including consumers and private firms, and government spend within the borders of a particular country must add up to the total value of all finished goods and services produced over a certain period of time
38 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Yuan ComDex Decade Relationsip of Yuan & Commodity Index Yuan ComDex depreciation of 1% in Yuan leads to a decline of 0.6% in commodity prices (as per BoFA) (ie) A cheaper yuan will erode the purchasing power of the Chinese, pushing prices down
39 Fed Fund Rate US Liquidity Index US Fed Rate vs Liquidity Index (Jan 2007 Jul 2017) Fed Fund Rate % US Liquity Index
40 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 DXY ComDex Decade Relationsip of Dollar Index & Commodity Index DXY ComDex
41 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Energy Index Edible Oil Index Energy Index vs Edible Oil Index (Jan 2007-Aug 2017) Energy Index Edible Oil Index
42 VUCA WHAT s IN STORE FOR OIL COMPLEX???
43 Indonesia Current Precipitation at Key Growing Areas (as on 10 th Sep 2017) SUMATRA KALIMANTAN RIAU
44 Malaysia Current Precipitation at Key Growing Areas (as on 10 th Sep 2017)
45 Overall oilseeds in 2H 2017 will be well supplied. Total production is expected to be at 578MMT versus 570MMT. However, US weather will be key factor in deciding the further trend for prices On palm front markets will be continue to take cues from external environment. However, fundamental would continue to provide much needed impetus for prices. On production front palm production has revived but the revival has been muted. However, tracking precipitation in both Indonesia & Malaysia looks like we are set to see bountiful recovery in 2H 2017 most likely from October onwards which would coincide with WWD (weak winter demand) However, BioD sector is getting the much needed attention with Brent Crude finding support from Hurricane we could see demand coming from BioD segment US Weather Tracker
46 KEY TAKEAWAYS World is all set to face the 4D effect & Global Growth has become too fragile & uncertain : 2017 was challenging year & 2018 will surpass the same in surprises Currency Volatility will continue & DXY will try to get its foothold as FED will be direction provider (rising debt will put FED on backfoot) Actual PAIN will be felt by Raw material exporting nations as global demand needs strong revival Health of Edible Oil & Oilseeds will be more driven by US Weather, Currency and Much Awaited Revival in Palm Oil Production
47 VUCA OUTLOOK THE Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil. Sheikh Zaki Yamani
48 EL NINO front = FUGAZI in 2017 but will 2018 have La Nina??? BRENT Crude finally got much needed steam from HURRICANE-GEOPOLITICS-OPEC CUTS. Is it for to support listing??? Overall CRUDE with near term support could try $57-60$/bbl but will not sustain & loose it steam as market glut will pull down prices towards $48 initially followed by $45/bbl by Q DOLLAR under influence of FED rate decision will give much needed impetus to COMMODITIY PRICE CHINA BLACKBOX could be busted : will be bearish commodities price trend BioD market in dilema due to attack from US & EU on Arg & Indo BioD exports (just near term support but it will not hold good in long run) PALM market near term supported due to weak revival in Prodn, Slow stock build up & Festivity that will be until Mid OCT 17 could push prices towards 3000MYR/MT after which markets should correct in Q towards 2700 followed by 2400 MYR/MT until fraternity POC 2018
49 VUCA Thank You Disclaimer : Views shared in the paper are author s view and not to be considered as company s view or being endorsed by company which author represents.
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