Coal India. Source: Company Data; PL Research

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1 Working on a realistic target of 1bn tonnes output by FY2020 June 01, 2015 Kamlesh Bagmar kamleshbagmar@plindia.com Ankit Shah ankitshah@plindia.com Rating Accumulate Price Rs391 Target Price Rs422 Implied Upside 7.9% Sensex 27,828 Nifty 8,434 (Prices as on May 29, 2015) Trading data Market Cap. (Rs bn) 2,470.0 Shares o/s (m) 6, M Avg. Daily value (Rs m) Major shareholders Promoters 79.65% Foreign 8.99% Domestic Inst. 8.82% Public & Other 2.54% Stock Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute Relative (10.1) How we differ from Consensus EPS (Rs) PL Cons. % Diff Price Performance (RIC: COAL.BO, BB: COAL IN) (Rs) May 14 Jul 14 Source: Bloomberg Sep 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 We attended the analyst meet of Coal India (COAL). Management sounded confident to achieve 11%/12% YoY growth in production/off take for FY16 on the back of improved rake availability and expedited clearance process. However, management also cautioned about weak demand from power sector and elevated inventory at power stations. CIL remains our top pick with a strong play on Govtled reform across the chain of its operations and attractive dividend yield at ~5%. We maintain our Accumulate rating with a PT of Rs422, EV/EBITDA of 7.5x FY17E. Not yet decided on price hike: Management highlighted that it is well aware of the fall in margins and earnings, experienced in past three consecutive quarters. To contain the same, COAL is looking to affect the price hike. However, management shared no timeline and quantum of price hike. Weak economic activity could hit the off take in FY16: Impacted by weak economic activity and elevated coal stocks (`29 30 days) at power stations, COAL is experiencing weakness in demand from power utilities sector (constitutes ~78% of COAL's total off take). COAL is targeting 12% YoY growth in volumes to power utilities in FY16 at 430m t against ~9% in FY15. Prepared roadmap to reach 1bn t by FY2020: COAL has identified various potential projects to achieve the stated production level by FY2020. So far, mines/projects to produce about 908m t in FY2020 (FY15: 495m t) has been identified and for balance to reach 1bn t is underway. COAL has expedited spending on procuring high capacity capital equipments, acquiring land and expanding rail connectivity to achieve the desired goal. Ongoing projects and future projects would contribute 428m t of total increase. While, existing projects would see reduction of output by 26m t. Contd...2 Key financials (Y/e March) E 2017E Revenues. (Rs m) 688, , , ,657 Growth (%) EBITDA (Rs m) 159, , , ,138 PAT (Rs m) 152, , , ,637 EPS (Rs) Growth (%) (15.1) (10.0) Net DPS (Rs) Profitability & Valuation E 2017E EBITDA margin (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV / sales (x) EV / EBITDA (x) PE (x) P / BV (x) Net dividend yield (%) Source: Company Data; PL Research Analyst Meet Update Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report

2 Activity on three critical railway lines picked up: 1) Jharsuguda Barpali, Odisha: Execution at its fastest pace on the line among the 3 lines. Currently, track laying is under progress with the loading expected in FY17. Line would carry 60mtpa of coal 2) Bhupdevpur Korichapar, Chhattisgarh: Forest land acquired for first 65kms. Work on construction of bridges commenced. Commissioning of line on first 65kms is expected in FY Line has potential to carry 80mtpa of coal. 3) Tori Shivpur Kathotia, Jharkhand: Work on the link has expedited with the support of new state govt. However, commissioning would be delayed by 5 6 months from prior schedule of Mar 19. Line would carry 60mtpa of coal Rake loading up ~12% YoY: Thanks to better rail circuit management, enhanced efficiency and increased availability of rakes (due to weak demand from other sectors), loading of rakes/day rose 11.9% YoY In Apr May'15 to 207. COAL's overall off take target of 550m tonnes (t) for FY16 with growth of ~12% YoY, builds in rakes/day at 232 (FY15:195). Targeting capex of Rs110bn in FY16: COAL is looking to spend highest ever on capex in FY16 at Rs110bn, more than 2x capex in FY15. This would include 1) Rs60bn on sourcing of equipments and land acquisition, 2) Rs5bn for procurement of wagons, 3) Rs20bn on setting up solar power projects and 4) Rs25 30bn for investment in three rail lines, categorised under infrastructure projects. The entire capex would be financed through internal accruals. Consistently been successful in acquiring land: Against the requirement of 2000 hectares of land/year, COAL has been acquiring on an average 4500 hectares of land/year for past three years. This would help COAL to grow its production at a 5 year CAGR of 13% in FY15 FY20 to 908m tonnes. Escalation in cost due to increase in strip ratio: Management highlighted that COAL's strip ratio would increase to 2.7x by FY2020 against current 1.8x as operations approach deeper seams of coal. However, Chairman assured that application of appropriate technology would help COAL to restrict the escalation in cost on account of increase in strip ratio. Employee cost rose sharply due to actuarial valuation; likely to rise by 6% in FY16: Company provided Rs9.6bn for actuarial valuation of employee benefits due to 50bps cut in discount rates from 8.5% to 8.0%. Management expects employee cost to rise 6 7% in next couple of quarters after factoring 3.5% 4% reduction in employee headcount due to natural attrition. Pithead stocks up 13% YoY in May 15: Coal stocks at COAL's pithead rose to 49m tonnes at the end of May 15 due to weak demand from power utilities and steep increase in coal output. Supplies to new power plant to improve in FY16: COAL executed FSAs for 224m t of coal with power plants commissioned after Mar 2009 having requisite PPAs. As per the conditions of FSA agreement, COAL will supply 67% of the FSA quantity or 150m tonnes in FY16, up ~15% YoY. June 01,

3 Exhibit 1: Q4FY14 Result Overview (Rs m) Y/e March Q4FY14 Q4FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q3FY14 FY15 FY14 YoY gr. (%) Net operating revenue 207, , , , , (Accretion)/Decretion in Stocks (13,504) (8,493) 59.0 (4,663) (5,305) 927 (672.6) Consumption of stores and spares 21,510 22,105 (2.7) 18,420 72,566 70, Employees' Remuneration & Benefits 80,341 70, , , , Power & Fuel 6,095 5, ,089 23,473 22, Welfare expenses 1,142 2,389 (52.2) 728 4,054 7,348 (44.8) Repairs 4,123 3, ,620 11,232 9, Contractual Expenses 28,048 21, ,825 85,126 68, Other Expenses 9,306 7, ,204 29,909 26, Overburden Removal Adjustment 15,752 15, ,179 38,267 32, Provision and write off ,513 9,938 2, Total Cost of Sales 153, , , , , EBITDA 53,995 59,840 (9.8) 34, , ,396 (9.6) as a % of Sales Depreciation 6,980 5, ,672 23,198 19, EBIT 47,015 54,000 (12.9) 29, , ,432 (13.0) Interest (91.2) (87.4) PBT (before other income) 46,986 53,670 (12.5) 29, , ,852 (12.7) Other Income 22,914 23,844 (3.9) 21,820 86,761 89,693 (3.3) PBT before extraordinaries 69,900 77,514 (9.8) 50, , ,545 (9.2) Adj. pertaining to previous year 14 (8,498) (170) 50 (8,750) PBT after extraordinaries 69,914 69, , , ,795 (5.7) Provision for Taxation 27,529 24, ,131 78,573 77, Reported PAT 42,385 44,342 (4.4) 32, , ,116 (9.2) Extraordinary items (net of tax exp) (Charge)/ Credit (0) (0) Net profit 42,385 44,342 (4.4) 32, , ,115 (9.2) Adjusted PAT 42,376 49,951 (15.2) 32, , ,892 (12.5) Source: Company Data, PL Research June 01,

4 Exhibit 2: Operating Metrics Y/e March Q4FY14 Q4FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q3FY14 FY15 FY14 YoY gr. (%) Coal production (m tonnes) Coal sales volume (m tonnes) Rs/tonne analysis on aggregate volumes Net realisation 1,542 1, ,426 1,472 1, Total cost/tonne 1,141 1, ,147 1,160 1, EBITDA/tonne (13.0) (12.8) Sales volume mix (m tonnes) FSA E auction (17.0) (19.1) Washed coal (7.5) Realisation per tonne (Rs) FSA 1,419 1, ,298 1,327 1, E auction 2,386 2, ,134 2,450 2, Washed coal 1,971 2,545 (22.5) 2,620 2,348 2,351 (0.1) Source: Company Data, PL Research June 01,

5 Income Statement (Rs m) Net Revenue 688, , , ,657 Raw Material Expenses 71,147 67,261 82,196 92,354 Gross Profit 616, , , ,303 Employee Cost 277, , , ,721 Other Expenses 179, , , ,444 EBITDA 159, , , ,138 Depr. & Amortization 19,964 23,198 24,085 26,692 Net Interest Other Income 89,708 86,811 90, ,965 Profit before Tax 228, , , ,320 Total Tax 76,241 78,573 76,777 97,683 Profit after Tax 152, , , ,637 Ex Od items / Min. Int Adj. PAT 152, , , ,637 Avg. Shares O/S (m) 6, , , ,316.4 EPS (Rs.) Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) C/F from Operations 145, , , ,534 C/F from Investing 23,590 5,564 1,461 8,278 C/F from Financing (253,503) (157,358) (101,297) (140,170) Inc. / Dec. in Cash (84,665) (1,002) 60,594 68,642 Opening Cash 116,849 94,391 93, ,983 Closing Cash 94,391 93, , ,625 FCFF 155, , , ,974 FCFE 144, , , ,974 Key Financial Metrics Growth Revenue (%) EBITDA (%) (14.7) (4.6) PAT (%) (15.1) (10.0) EPS (%) (15.1) (10.0) Profitability EBITDA Margin (%) PAT Margin (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%) Balance Sheet Net Debt : Equity (1.3) (1.4) (1.4) (1.4) Net Wrkng Cap. (days) (639) (675) (553) (514) Valuation PER (x) P / B (x) EV / EBITDA (x) EV / Sales (x) Earnings Quality Eff. Tax Rate Other Inc / PBT Eff. Depr. Rate (%) FCFE / PAT Source: Company Data, PL Research. Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) Shareholder's Funds 424, , , ,028 Total Debt 1, Other Liabilities 35,925 39,686 43,654 48,032 Total Liabilities 461, , , ,060 Net Fixed Assets 191, , , ,375 Goodwill Investments 11,876 11,876 11,876 11,876 Net Current Assets 239, , , ,091 Cash & Equivalents 549, , , ,002 Other Current Assets 270, , , ,678 Current Liabilities 580, , , ,589 Other Assets 19,717 19,717 19,717 19,717 Total Assets 461, , , ,060 Quarterly Financials (Rs m) Y/e March Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Net Revenue 177, , , ,742 EBITDA 42,810 20,696 34,800 53,995 % of revenue Depr. & Amortization 5,183 5,363 5,672 6,980 Net Interest (21,794) (20,211) (21,798) (22,885) Other Income 21,805 20,221 21,820 22,914 Profit before Tax 59,578 35,591 50,756 69,914 Total Tax 19,246 13,668 18,131 27,529 Profit after Tax 40,332 21,924 32,625 42,386 Adj. PAT 40,228 21,892 32,737 42,376 Key Operating Metrics Raw coal prod (mn tn) Coal despatches (mn tn) Vol sold under FSA/MoU (mn tn) Vol sold under E auction (mn tn) Beneficiated coal vol (mn tn) Vol sold to power utilities (mn tn) Real. / tonne (Rs) 1,461 1,472 1,473 1,568 Total cost per tonne (Rs) 1,081 1,161 1,162 1,179 Cash cost per tonne (Rs) 993 1,062 1,063 1,075 Employee cost / tonne (Rs) EBITDA / tonne (Rs) OBR adj / tonne (Rs) Source: Company Data, PL Research. June 01,

6 Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. 3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai , India Tel: (91 22) Fax: (91 22) Rating Distribution of Research Coverage PL s Recommendation Nomenclature % of Total Coverage 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 43.2% 38.9% 17.9% 0.0% BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12 months Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12 months Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12 months Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12 months Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1 month Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1 month Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly DISCLAIMER/DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION We/I, Mr. Kamlesh Bagmar (CA, CFA), Mr. Ankit Shah (BE, MBA, CFA (US)), Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. 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PL or its research analysts or its associates or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report. PL or its research analysts or its associates or his relatives do not have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report. PL or its associates might have received compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. PL or its associates might have managed or co managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months or mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. PL or its associates might have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months. PL or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months PL or its associates might have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. PL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. PL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the subject Company or third party in connection with the preparation of the research report. PL or its Research Analysts do not have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Mr. Kamlesh Bagmar (CA, CFA), Mr. Ankit Shah (BE, MBA, CFA (US)), Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. The Research analysts for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. 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