THE PROSPECTS OF REGIONAL DRY BULK SHIPPING IN THE AMERICA S

Transcription

1 THE PROSPECTS OF REGIONAL DRY BULK SHIPPING IN THE AMERICA S

2 Dry bulk market recovery stronger; on recovery path Chemical Tanker LPG (VLGC) LNG Container Dry Bulk OSV Source: Drewry Maritime Financial Research, DMFR

3 Key indicators Dry bulk Tanker LNG LPG Ports Container OSV Earnings growth (FY17e) Operating profitability (FY17e) Net gearing (FY17e) Stock performance (2017-YTD) Physical markets Improving Low Low Low Improving Improving Distressed Improving Low Moderate Moderate Improving Improving Distressed Manageable Manageable High Moderate Moderate High Distressed High Low Rangebound Rangebound High High Low Trending up Stable Stable Stable NA Stable Distressed Liquidity Trending up Stable Stable Stable High Stable Distressed Freight rates Trending up Down Down Stable NA Stable Distressed Note: Based on sample listed stocks Source: Drewry Maritime Financial Research, DMFR

4 South America accounts for a significant share of bulk trades; plays a key role Iron Ore 28% Brazil, Chile, Peru Metal concentr ates 27% Chile, Peru Coarse Grains 34% Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay Soyabean 56% Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay

5 Global dry bulk seaborne trade outlook: modest (Major bulks); optimistic (Minor bulks)

6 Global Iron ore demand to remain firm, projected to grow by 1.5% annually Iron Ore - Imports historical perspective China Rest of the world World total Share of world Share of world % % , % % 1,457 CAGR 18.2% Iron Ore - Imports outlook 1.2% 7.9% China Rest of the world World total Share of world Share of world , % % 1, , % % 1,607 Incremental demand CAGR 1.6% 1.4% 1.5%

7 Brazil likely to gain back some market share over next five years Iron Ore - Exports Australia Brazil World total Share of world Share of world % % % % 1, % % 1, % % 1, % % 1, % % 1, % % 1, % % 1,434

8 Demand for power generation will drive demand for steam coal Steam coal - Imports outlook India S. Korea China Taiwan Japan EU28 Million CAGR 3.9% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 0.8% -1.7%

9 Demand from Colombia s key trade partner on a decline Steam coal - Exports Australia Indonesia Colombia World total Share of world Share of world Share of world % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 826

10 Firm demand and stable supply will support grain trade; projected to grow at 2.5% on average 2017 onwards Grains Imports ( ), historical perspective EU Japan Egypt China Iran Saudi Indones S.Korea Algeria Arabia ia CAGR 7.5% -0.5% 1.9% -13.2% -10.6% 3.8% -0.3% 1.2% 0.6% Grains Imports ( ), historical perspective EU Japan Egypt China Iran Saudi Indones S.Korea Algeria Arabia ia CAGR 2.4% 0.6% 4.8% 22.1% 15.9% 9.2% 4.5% 2.7% 6.9%

11 Ample availability of stocks with exporting countries will keep the market well supplied Grain - Exports outlook USA Canada Argentina Others %

12 Prospects promising, however issues remain: Infrastructural challenges: Congestion and availability of sufficient and suitable infrastructure Ports in need of modernisation and deepening Significant proportion of freight is moved to ports by road - exploit potential of inland waterways as an alternative means of transport Investments key to resolving infrastructure problems

13 Salaverry, Peru Multipurpose port Select investment opportunities 30 years concession Target cargoes: iron and copper ores Initial Investments: USD 215 m Status: Expression of interest ongoing Deadline November/2017 San Juan de Marcona, Peru Multipurpose port Target cargoes: grains, concentrates, fertilisers Initial Investments: USD 378 m Status: Under assessement Paranaguá, Brazil 2 new grain terminals PAR 07 Expected capacity: 5.1 Mt/year Investments: USD m PAR 08 Expected capacity: 4.56 Mt/year Investments: USD m Status: Under study Tender expected 3Q2018

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