The Balance of Payments

Transcription

1 INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Seventh Edition EUN / RESNICK 3-0 Copyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. The Balance of Payments Chapter Objective: 3 Chapter Three INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT This chapter serves to introduce students to the balance of payments how it is constructed, and how BOP data may be interpreted. Fourth Edition EUN / RESNICK 3-1 Chapter Three Outline l Balance of Payments Accounting l Specific Balance of Payments Accounts n n n Official Reserves Account n Statistical Discrepancy l Balance of Payments Identity l BOP Trends in Major Countries 3-2 1

2 Balance of Payments Accounting l The Balance of Payments is the statistical record n of a country s international transactions n over a certain period of time n presented in the form of double-entry book-keeping. N.B. when we talk about a country s balance of payments, we are referring to the transactions of its citizens and government. 3-3 BOP: Basic Principle l Transactions that lead to an increase in the supply of a country s currency are recorded as debits in that country s BOP n Examples: importing bicycles from abroad, purchasing foreign assets (financial assets, physical assets, etc.) l Transactions that lead to an increase in demand for a country s currency are recorded as credits in that country s BOP n Examples: exports of goods, services, sales of assets 3-4 Balance of Payments Example l Suppose that Maplewood Bicycle in Maplewood, Missouri, USA imports $100,000 worth of bicycle frames from Mercian Bicycles in Darby, England. l There will exist a $100,000 credit recorded by Mercian that offsets a $100,000 debit at Maplewood s bank account. l This will lead to a rise in the supply of dollars and the demand for British pounds

3 A. Balance of Payments Accounts l The balance of payments accounts are those that record all transactions between the residents of a country and residents of all foreign nations. l They comprise the following accounts: n (analogy: Profits & Loss ) n (analogy: Balance Sheet ) n Official Reserves Account n Statistical Discrepancy 3-6 Balance of Payments Accounts The (CA) l Includes all imports/exports of goods & services. n Trade balance (civilian & military goods) n Invisibles balance (services) n Investment income balance l Accounting n Exports of G&S are entered as credits u because they create cash inflows for the domestic country n Imports of G&S are entered as debits u because they lead to cash outflows from the domestic country 3-8 3

4 The (CA) l Includes all imports/exports of goods & services n Trade, Invisibles, Factor income, Foreign aid l Unilateral transfers of foreign aid n Debit (Idea: import goodwill ) n Double-entry -> what gets credited? G&S: CA; cash: KA l If the debits exceed the credits, then BCA<0 n i.e., the country is running a CA ( trade ) deficit l If the credits exceed the debits, then BCA>0 n i.e., the country is running a CA ( trade ) surplus 3-9 The (CA) l Much lower deficit in 2009 than in 2008 à Why? The (KA) l The capital account records domestic residents sales of assets to foreigners and the same residents purchases of foreign assets l Accounting n Asset sales to foreigners are entered as credits u exporting financial assets leads to cash inflows into the domestic (home) country n Purchases of foreign financial assets are entered as debits u importing financial assets is associated with cash outflows from the home country

5 The (KA) l The KA balance measures the gap between residents assets sales to foreigners and the same residents purchases of foreign assets. l The U.S. enjoys a huge KA surplus (2007: $790bn; 2010: $241bn) absent official U.S. borrowing abroad, this surplus finances the U.S. trade deficit l Details for 2010 (from Economic Report to the President) n Increase in foreign-owned assets in USA: $1,246bn n Increase in US privately-owned assets abroad: $1,005bn n See handout: 05b_US_BoP erp_b103&b The (KA) l The capital account is composed of n Foreign Direct Investment u FDI; control 10% or more; n Portfolio investments u stocks & bonds without control; n Other investments u trade credits, bank deposits, 3-13 The (CA) l Much lower net flows in 2009 than in 2008 l Why?

6 Flows vs. Stocks: KA vs. NIIP l Capital account (KA) n Is a flow measure u measures capital flows between a country and the rest of the world (ROW) l Net international investment position (NIIP) n Is a stock measure u measures whether a country is a net creditor (e.g., China) or debtor (e.g., US) with respect to the ROW Flows vs. Stocks: KA vs. NIIP Statistical Discrepancy l There are going to be some omissions and misrecorded transactions so we use a plug figure to get things to balance l Exhibit 3.1 (three slides down) shows discrepancy of +$200bn in 2008, later adjusted to -$59bn n Discrepancy sometimes even larger u biggest «initial» discrepancies observed in 91, 98 & n why? sign? (2008: initial=+$200bn; 2010: initial=+$216.7bn) u initial discrepancies are often revised in later years n 2000: initial estimate = plus $0.73bn, revised = minus $74bn

7 4. The Official Reserves Account l Official-reserves assets include n Gold u used to make up most of a country s reserves l as recently as the early 1980 s, still half of all reserves u now less than 1% of the $35/1oz mkt prices) l 12-08: 83% held by OECD countries ( market value) n Foreign currencies ($11.4trn held as of Q3-2013) u at end of 2013, made up 99% of non-gold official reserves u USD accounts for 61.4% of FX reserves; EUR: 24.1% (Q3 2013) n SDRs + Reserve Positions in the IMF l OECD countries hold over a third of world reserves 3-18 ORA s Flip Side l Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities (Dec. 2013, USD billion) 3-19 B. The Balance of Payments Identity BCA + BKA + BRA = 0 where BCA = balance on current account BKA = balance on capital account BRA = balance on the reserves account Under a pure flexible exchange rate regime, BCA + BKA =

8 U.S. Balance of Payments Data 2006 Balance on $826.9 Figures for U.S. Balance of Payments Data 2006 Balance on $826.9 In 2006, the U.S. imported more than it exported, thus running a current account deficit of $811.3 billion U.S. Balance of Payments Data Balance on $826.9 During the same year, the U.S. attracted net investment of $826.9 billion clearly, the rest of the world found the U.S. to be a good place to invest (why?) 8

9 U.S. Balance of Payments Data 2006 Balance on $826.9 Under a pure flexible exchange rate regime, these numbers would balance each other out U.S. Balance of Payments Data 2006 Balance on $826.9 In the real world, there is a statistical discrepancy; sometimes (as in here) but not very often, it is small 3-25 U.S. Balance of Payments Data Balance on $826.9 Including that, the balance of payments identity should hold: BCA + BKA = BRA ($811.3) + $ = 9

10 C. Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate Balance on $826.9 Exchange rate $ P S D Q Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate Balance on $826.9 Exchange rate $ As U.S. citizens import, they are supply dollars to the FOREX market. P S D Q 3-29 Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate Balance on $826.9 Exchange rate $ As U.S. citizens export, others demand dollars at the FOREX market. P S D Q 10

11 3-30 Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate Balance on $826.9 Exchange rate $ As the U.S. gov t buys dollars with FX, the supply of dollars decreases. P S 1 S D Q 3-31 Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate Balance on $826.9 Exchange rate $ Consequently, the $ appreciates (its foreign-currency price rises) P S 1 S D Q. Sovereign Wealth Funds l Government-controlled investment funds are playing an increasingly visible role in international investments. l SWFs (Sovereign Wealth Funds) n Mostly domiciled in Asia and Middle-East n though Norway/Botswana/Russia all have large SWFs u Transparency? Motives? n Usually responsible for recycling these countries foreign exchange reserves (swelled by trade surpluses and commodity revenues)

12 D. Balance of Payments Trends l Since 1982, the U.S. has had continuous current account deficits and surpluses on capital account. n Sole exception: small CA surplus in 1991 ($2.9bn). n Just how big did deficits grow? u 2000: $ 444.7bn (E&R5; latest revised figures: $ bn) u 2004: $ 628bn (latest Economic Report to the President) u 2006: $ 800bn (based on 2013 ERP; highest ever) u 2012: $ 477bn (estimate based on 1st 3 quarters, 2013 ERP) l During that period, Japan experienced reverse 3-33 u : US deficit stable (why?), Japan now has a CA deficit U.S. Balance of Payments U.S. BCA and BKA are almost mirror images Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issues 3-34 Japan Balance of Payments Year Balance of Payments Japan BCA Japan BKA Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issues

13 Balance of Payments Trends l Germany traditionally had CA surpluses l For a decade after 1991, Germany experienced CA deficits. l This was largely due to German reunification n Need to absorb more output domestically to rebuild the former East Germany. l What matters = nature / causes of disequilibrium n To wit, the CA has been back in the black since Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of Germany Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issues 3-37 Balance of Payments Trends l Asian countries have traditionally had current account surpluses l Both China and Japan have tried to keep their currencies not too strong against the dollar. l To do so, they have been buying dollars and selling their own currencies. l The net result is a massive accumulation of FX (especially $) reserves by those nations central banks. (but, is it the whole story? 05c_Asian FX reserves 0905)

14 Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issues BOP Trends in Emerging Markets l Latin America n CA>0 since 2002 (why?) l Developing Asia n CA>0, KA>0 (why both?) l Eastern Europe n CA<0, KA >0 (problem?) l References: IMF GFSR ( issues)

15 Int l Investment Positions (% of GDP) 3-42 Int l Investment Positions (% of GDP) Cumulative CA deficits (% of GDP) 3-43 BOP and Fundamentals l National income or GNP is the sum of: GNP = C + I + G + (X - M) l GNP, alternatively, can be viewed as the sum of: GNP = C + S + T l So, it must be that: 0 = (I S) + (G - T) + (X-M), i.e., BCA = X M = (S - I) + (T - G)

16 How to eliminate a CA deficit? l We know that BCA = X M = (S - I) + (T - G) n Increase private savings / reduce government deficit n Import restrictions? u Quotas or tariffs? (Who gets the price increase? Does T go up?) u Unlikely to work anyways n shifts demand to non-restricted imports (why? + example: steel) n Prevent foreigners from acquiring domestic assets? n Manipulate the FX rate downward u J-curve problem (Why? demand / supply elasticities. USA 08?) 3-45 Bottom Line: Why do we Care? l Composition of trade l Competitiveness n Implicit in the fact that BCA>0 n Caveat: where is the causality? u U.S. BCA<0 -> U.S. BKA>0 n Need to get foreigners to finance the trade deficit u or U.S. BKA>0 -> U.S. BCA<0? 3-46 n Foreigners willingness to invest in the U.S. makes the dollar appreciate, which in turn reduces competitiveness? An Aside Capital Controls l When they can make sense n Short-term flows can reverse very quickly u Evidence that these reversals are costly u Slowing contagion is helpful n Affect the split between long-term and short-term flows u Example: put restrictions on short-term flows n Chile: 30% deposit in escrow account n Examples of impact (see handouts): Brazil, China

17 End Chapter Three