FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN

Transcription

1 March 9 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN VOLUME 0 March 9 NUMBER The rebuilding of foreign gold and dollar to more adequate levels continued in 9, especially in Continental Western Europe and the Sterling Area. Foreign of gold and dollars, after a substantial growth in the last nine months of 9, increased.6 billion dollars in 9 to a record total of billion. Practically all of the additions in 9 went to Continental Western Europe and the Sterling Area. The upward movement in has continued in 9. The increase in foreign monetary in 9 reflected the recent tendency toward balance in the current account position of the United States (excluding military supplies and services granted to foreign countries) and a continued though reduced net flow of private capital and United States Government loans and grants to the rest of the world. Nearly half the 9 increase in foreign monetary took the form of gold purchases from the United States. Foreign countries also acquired more than 00 million dollars of gold from new production and other sources. Foreign dollar rose almost billion dollars, about half of which was invested in United States Government securities. The current contraction in the United States economy finds foreign countries in a more comfortable position than in past years with respect to both the balance of payments FOREIGN GOLD RESERVES AND DOLLAR HOLDINGS Billions of dollars U. S. GOVT. SECURITIES, ETC. DEPOSITS GOLD RESERVES NOTE. Year-end data. valued at $.67 per fine ounce in 98 and at $ thereafter. of the U.S.S.R. are excluded. Top section of bar includes a substantial amount of short-term private paper in 98 and small amounts in other years. and the level of monetary. The question of adequacy of foreign monetary takes on increased interest as the approach to over-all balance in international payments permits relaxation of direct restrictions on trade and payments among nations. FOREIGN TRANSACTIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES Net transfers of gold and dollars from the United States to foreign countries and international institutions reflect the United States balance of payments with the rest of the world in goods, services, gifts, and capital transactions. Such net transfers rose from about billion dollars in 9 to. billion MARCH 9 7

2 March 9 in 9. The United States balance on current account which covers all transactions in goods and services, including Government purchases of goods and services for use abroad, and also private remittances, but excludes military supplies and services furnished under Government aid changed from a surplus of.8 billion dollars in 9 to a small deficit in 9. This change was sufficient to offset declines in the net outflow of private capital and in disbursements of Government nonmilitary grants and loans, and also to permit a substantial increase in gold and dollar transfers to foreign countries. Payments to foreign countries on account of United States Government economic grants and loans declined about 00 million dollars from 9 to 9, resulting primarily from smaller appropriations for European aid under the Mutual Security Program. The net outflow of United States private capital declined about 700 million dollars in 9, reflecting special factors in the movements of both long- and short-term private funds. In the second and third quarters of the year, when bond prices in this country were below earlier levels, there were large repurchases, particularly by Canadians, of outstanding long-term foreign securities in the United States market. Largely as a result of these transactions, the net outflow of United States portfolio capital was reversed, the net inflow for 9 amounting to about 80 million dollars. The flow of direct investment abroad the major element in United States long-term private capital movements declined moderately during the year. A net inflow of United States private shortterm capital, in contrast to the net outflow of most previous years, reflected payments by Brazil on an accumulation of claims held by American banks and exporters. Brazil drew on an Export-Import Bank loan for this purpose. Short-term credits to other foreign countries rose somewhat. UNITED STATES BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SELECTED COMPONENTS Billions of dollars U. S. GOVT. GRANTS and LOANS OUTFLOW of U.S. PRIVATE CAPITAL NET TRANSFERS of GOLD and DOLLARS to FOREIGN COUNTRIES 9 9 NOTE. Quarterly data; figures for fourth quarter of 9 are preliminary. Net transfers of gold and dollars, computed by Federal Reserve, include net foreign purchases of gold from United States plus net increase in foreign dollar. data are derived from U. S. Department of Commerce statistics. Balance on current account represents the balance of goods, services, and unilateral transfers other than Government grants; exports of grant-financed military supplies and services are excluded. Outflow of U. S. private capital and U. S. Government nonmilitary grants and loans are on a net basis. The change in 9 in the current account balance of the United States with foreign countries reflected a level of United States merchandise exports (excluding those covered by military aid) about billion dollars below the 9 total. After declining in the course of 9, exports in 9 were maintained at about the same level as in the third and fourth quarters of 9. Merchandise imports rose to a peak in the spring of 9, but for the year as a whole were only slightly larger than in the preceding year FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN

3 March 9 United States purchases abroad of goods and services for use abroad, including payments for the maintenance of United States military installations and troops and for offshore procurement of military equipment for the use of foreign countries, were an important factor enabling foreign countries to show a current account surplus with this country. These payments amounted to.6 billion dollars in 9 compared with.9 billion in 9. Exports and offshore transfers of military supplies and services under United States Government grants, which increased about.7 billion dollars to. billion in 9, are excluded from the calculation of the balance on current account. These grant-aid military supplies, while providing net additions to foreign military strength, have for the most part not altered the supply of or demand for goods and services in commercial trade. COMPOSITION OF GOLD AND DOLLAR MOVEMENTS Changes in total foreign and international gold and dollar reflect the balance of payments of the United States and the addition of newly produced gold to foreign monetary. When total payments from the United States are in excess of receipts, foreign countries may use their net dollar receipts to purchase gold from the United States or to add to their assets in the United States. To the extent that such assets include bank deposits or securities with maturities up to months at the time of purchase, they are included in the concept of dollar as used in this article. United States gold sales. Foreign countries purchased about. billion dollars of gold from the United States during 9. About half the purchases were made in the first quarter, as shown in the table. Since United States domestic production and industrial consumption of gold were in near balance during 9, the monetary gold NET FOREIGN PURCHASES OF GOLD FROM THE UNITED STATES 9 Area and country- [In millions of dollars] United Kingdom Latin America: Argentina Mexico.... Uruguay Latin America Asia and all other Grand total Continental Western Europe: Belgium and Belgian Congo Denmark Germany (Federal Republic of). Netherlands Portugal. Sweden Switzerland Continental Western Europe.. Bank for International Settlements Jan.- Mar Apr.- June ' ' July- Sept ( ) 07 Oct- Dec. 0 ' ' Minus sign indicates sale to the United States. Purchase of less than $00,000. NOTE. Details may not add to totals because of rounding. 9 8 ( ) ( ) 0 Year ,6 stock of the United States declined about. billion during the year as a result of its sales. At the year-end this country had a gold stock of. billion dollars. This was 60 per cent of world gold, the same relative share as at the end of 9. The corresponding ratios in the predepression year of 98 and the prewar year of 98 were 8 and 6 per cent. All gold figures in this article exclude the U.S.S.R. gold transactions. Since the total gold of foreign countries and international institutions rose by,90 million dollars in 9 and net foreign purchases of gold from the United States accounted for,6 million, about million of the total was acquired from new foreign production or other sources. There were reports of sales MARCH 9 9

4 March 9 ESTIMATED CHANGES IN FOREIGN AND INTERNATIONAL GOLD RESERVES AND DOLLAR HOLDINGS DURING 9 [In millions of dollars] Area and country Holdings at end of 9 Jan.-Mar. Apr.-June Increase or decrease ( ), 9 July-Sept. Oct.-Dec.p Year? Holdings at end of 9P Continental Western Europe: Austria Belgium-Luxembourg (and Belgian Conco) France (and dependencies) Germany (Federal Republic of). Italy Netherlands (and Netherlands West Indies and Surinam)... Portugal( and dependencies)... Sweden Switzerland * , U so U , ,6, ,00,9,7 Sterling area: United Kingdom U. K. dependencies Union of South Africa., , 88 9 U ( U - 67, , , Canada. 896, ,*0 Latin America: Argentina Brazil Cuba Mexico Uruguay Venezuela , , ' is 8 90 SO ""J-Y "" -7-9 SO8 S ,9 ISO % 8 6,70 Asia: Indonesia Japan Philippine Republic '"- i' i' -S 0 IS -8 i' ' , ,67 All other: Eastern Europe International s.... Grand total ,69,0 7 foreign countries., 9,6,9, ,80, , ,9,70,6 6,,60,77 P Preliminary. Represents gold of Bank of France and French dependencies only. Includes of other Continental OEEC countries, Finland, Spain, Yugoslavia, Bank for International Settlements (both for Its own and European Payments Union account), gold to be distributed by the Tripartite Commission for Restitution of Monetary, and unpublished gold of certain Western European countries. Estimated gold of British Exchange Equalization Account, based on of gold, U. S. and Canadian dollars as reported by British Government. * Excludes gold of, but includes dollar balances held by, the U.S.S.R. "Includes of International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Monetary Fund, and United Nations and other international organizations. Excludes of Bank for International Settlements, which are included under "Continental Western Europe." NOTE. Includes reported and estimated gold of central banks, governments, and international institutions, and official and private dollar reported by banks in the United States. include principally deposits and U. S. Government securities (Treasury bills, certificates of indebtedness, and notes and bonds reported as purchased within months of maturity). The total referred to most frequently in the text is that for "total foreign countries," shown in bold-face type. International institutions are shown separately for the purpose of providing more complete coverage of the movement of gold and dollar. 0 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN

5 March 9 of gold by the U.S.S.R. to the United Kingdom and other European countries in the latter part of the year. It would appear that somewhat less than 0 million dollars of gold from new production was added to the gold of foreign countries last year. foreign gold production amounted to an estimated 79 million dollars for the year. If the addition to from newly mined gold was less than 0 million, something more than 0 million dollars of gold went into industrial uses, private, or was otherwise not accounted for. This nonmonetary residual was slightly less than in 9 and substantially less than in 9. In the fourth quarter of 9 there was apparently a significant further reduction in the flow of gold to nonmonetary uses. The price of gold on the various free markets of the world continued to decline during 9 and in terms of dollars is now very close to the United States official gold price of $ per fine ounce. For example, the price in Zurich, Switzerland, which was as high as $ per fine ounce in the early part of 9, fell to $7. in December 9 and $. at the end of 9. Changes in dollar. Foreign dollar official of foreign central banks and governments plus dollar on private foreign account as reported by banks in the United States rose 99 million dollars during 9. Practically all of this increase was in official. Foreign monetary authorities continued to invest an increasing proportion of their additional dollar in securities in 9. Net foreign purchases, official and private, of United States Government securities amounted to million dollars, and net purchases of other short-term assets, mainly bankers' acceptances, were 7 million. Foreign deposits at commercial banks rose million dollars while those at Federal Reserve Banks declined 7 million during the year. Impact on commercial ban\. The net movement of funds between the United States and foreign countries had a moderately restraining effect on commercial bank in the United States during the early part of 9. As measured by the difference between the gold outflow and the partly offsetting decline in foreign deposits at Federal Reserve Banks, the drain on commercial bank due to foreign factors was around billion dollars for the year. The drain was heaviest about 600 million dollars in the first quarter. Federal Reserve operations to adjust the supply of bank to the needs of the economy took into consideration the effect of these foreign transactions. During the early months of the year, when there was a seasonal decline in reserve needs and the Federal Reserve was following a policy of restraint, the decline in due to foreign gold and dollar movements was permitted to occur. During the remainder of the year the effect of foreign factors was more than offset by Federal Reserve measures to supply additional bank needed to meet seasonal credit and currency growth and to ease bank reserve positions. REGIONAL CHANGES IN HOLDINGS Continental We? :ern Europe and Sterling Area countries together accounted for nearly. billion dollars, or practically all, of the net increase in foreign countries' gold and dollar during 9. At the yearend these groups of countries held about 60 per cent of total foreign gold and dollars. Latin American countries as a group increased their about 0 million dollars, after little change in 9. Holdings of MARCH 9

6 March 9 Canada and of the Asian countries not in the Sterling Area each declined slightly. These changes may be seen in the accompanying chart. A table presenting figures FOREIGN GOLD RESERVES AND DOLLAR HOLDINGS BY AREA OR COUNTRY Billions of dollars NOTE. End-of-quarter data. CONTINENTAL WESTERN EUROPE S UNITED KINGDOM and OTHER STERLING AREA_ \ ~\ ASIA and OTHER COUNTRIES 9 9 -/ on foreign gold and dollar for selected prewar and for postwar years will be found at the end of this article. European and Sterling Area countries. The distribution of gold and dollar among European and Sterling Area countries is affected by the settlement of intragroup trade through the European Payments Union as well as by transactions with the rest of the world and purchases of newly mined gold. The EPU settlements of the net deficits and surpluses that remain after clearing are made partly in credit and partly in gold and dollar payments to and from the Union. The United Kingdom and the rest, of the Sterling Area earned a net surplus over the entire year, in spite of small net deficits during the second half, and received million dollars from the Union. The only country earning larger amounts of gold and dollars was Germany, which received over 70 million dollars, spread fairly evenly throughout the year. Switzerland, Netherlands, and Austria earned moderate surpluses. France continued to be a large net debtor to EPU, paying million dollars. The countries of the Sterling Area increased their gold and dollar about 760 million dollars or per cent in 9. The major portion of this gain was in the official and private of the United Kingdom, which holds the central monetary for the Sterling Area. The official of gold and United States and Canadian dollars, as announced by the British Government, rose from,86 million dollars at the end of 9 to,8 million on December, 9. The gold and dollar of Continental Western Europe increased.7 billion dollars or per cent in 9. This large expansion continued the steady upward trend that began in 98. All countries in the area improved their reserve positions. Germany and the Netherlands, as in 9, experienced the largest over-all increases in gold and dollar. Reflecting its earnings from intra-european trade as well as large United States military expenditures, Germany's rose million dollars during 9, more than doubling the preceding year's growth. The Netherlands received substantial amounts of gold and dollars from Indonesia and increased its 0 million dollars, slightly less than during 9. France's experience was also similar to that of 9. Despite its continued deficit with the EPU, it was able to add about 90 million dollars to its gold and dollar, FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN

7 March 9 largely because of dollar receipts from grant aid and United States military expenditures in France and its overseas territories. countries. The slight decline in the gold and dollar of Asian countries outside the Sterling Area was mainly attributable to Indonesia. Japan continued to earn large amounts of dollars from United States military expenditures, but since imports rose substantially over 9 levels, gold and dollar increased only slightly during the year. In order to settle its deficit with the Sterling Area, Japan found it necessary to borrow sterling in London and to draw sterling from the International Monetary Fund. Latin American countries generally improved their gold and dollar positions. Argentina and Venezuela each added about 7 million dollars to their. After a decline of about 0 million dollars in 9, Brazil's rose last year by a similar amount, as imports receded from their 9 levels. The fourth quarter decline in Brazil's dollar reflected increased payments, largely out of funds previously disbursed to Brazil by the Export-Import Bank, on its short-term dollar debt to creditors in the United States. Short-term claims on Brazil reported by banks in the United States, which had reached a peak of almost 8 million dollars at the end of February, declined to about 0 million by the end of the year. Canadian of gold and dollars declined 76 million in 9, largely because of security repurchases in the United States market in the second and third quarters. ADEQUACY OF FOREIGN MONETARY RESERVES At the end of 9 the total of foreign gold and dollar was more than 60 per cent above that of 98 and nearly three times as large as in 98, as may be seen in the table at the end of this article. Furthermore, the international financial institutions organized after World War II the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development had gold and dollar of more than billion dollars. Whether the monetary of individual countries are adequate to meet the needs of a freer system of trade and payments among nations is not indicated by these statistics. The adequacy of depends upon a number of factors, existing and prospective, which vary greatly in relative importance from country to country and are not subject to precise measurement. An important function of the monetary of nations like the cash of individuals or business firms is to permit the financing of temporary differences between income and expenditures. Some working balances are needed to finance day-to-day international transactions. Reserves are also needed for occasional differences between receipts and payments such as might result from a decline in the foreign demand for a country's exports or an increase in its purchases from abroad. The availability of adequate may enable a country, whenever a temporary balance of payments deficit develops, to avoid such measures of adjustment as currency devaluation, the imposition of trade and exchange restrictions, or domestic deflation. Unless the existing level of is generally regarded as adequate in relation to potential drains, minor fluctuations in the balance of payments may be accentuated by speculative movements. Consideration of the adequacy of abroad has recently focused not only on their possible use as a buffer in case of tempo- MARCH 9

8 March 9 rary reductions in demand in major trading countries but also on the problem of providing a support for moves to relax direct restrictions on trade and the transferability of currencies. The need for for these purposes varies greatly from country to country depending, in the one case, on the size of exports and their sensitivity to reductions in income elsewhere and, in the other case, on the nature and timing of the measures to relax trade and exchange restrictions. In many countries legal requirements and traditions regarding the relation of monetary to the domestic liabilities of central banks and commercial banks also have an important bearing on views as to the adequacy of. The adequacy of the monetary of countries, either individually or in groups, cannot be measured on the basis of simple comparisons with past years. For example, it is frequently noted that in relation to the growth in the value of world trade the of most countries have declined considerably since the late thirties. But the depressed conditions of prices and trade in that period limit the value of such a comparison. A comparison with the late twenties would show that foreign of gold and dollars have risen somewhat more than world trade. However, many other considerations must be taken into account in judging the adequacy of monetary of particular countries. A revival of the international flow of private short-term commercial credit in response to financial incentives might strengthen convertibility efforts and lessen somewhat the need for monetary by substituting private for official financing of temporary payments imbalances. Such a development would be facilitated by a broadening of the market for instruments of short-term international credit. The past two years have witnessed an approach to a balance in international accounts which might be sustained without direct restrictions on trade and payments among nations. Furthermore, a considerable relaxation of trade restrictions, including those against the dollar area, has been undertaken by a number of European countries and has not resulted in a reversal of the movement toward international balance. The rebuilding of foreign monetary, although only one of the conditions for the achievement of currency convertibility and nondiscriminatory trade, is a further step toward the attainment of these objectives. * FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN

9 March 9 ESTIMATED GOLD RESERVES AND DOLLAR HOLDINGS OF FOREIGN COUNTRIES AND INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS, 98, 98, AND 9- [End of year, except 98. In millions of dollars] Area and country Continental Western Europe: Austria Belgium-Luxembourg (and Belgian Congo) France (and dependencies) Germany (Federal Republic of) Italy Netherlands (and Netherlands West Indies and Surinam)» «... Portugal (and dependencies) Sweden,... Switzerland s.... Sterling Area: United Kingdom United Kingdom dependencies Union of South Africa...» Canada Latin America: Argentina Brazil Cuba.... Mexico Uruguay..».. Venezuela Asia: Indonesia.. Japan,...,.. Philippine Republic All other: Eastern Europe... foreign countries International Grand total 7, ,08 0) (i) , 68 0) ,966 7, , S ,0, ,6,69,68 9 0,76, ,, , ,797,07, ,7, , , , SS8 S9 S?9 8?Q , , S7 S08 S 60 9? t, S9, 7 S ,70,8,76 9,,9,989,7 9,7 9,7,69,0 8,70,8,76 9,899 8,887 8,6 8,66,7,98,76 6, ,9 6 7 sin 6? ,09, S8 S S0 S SR 68O S ,97,087, ,6,988,7 8 All ,69,7,9,090,7, ,0,60,80 7,00 8, 7,68,80,86 6,86 6,89 7, 8,68,060,8 9 68, ,869,8,67 O7 8 90,87 8,098,0, 79,0 69,,660, ,00,900,086,60,77,98,7,,77,8,06, ,778,66,88,7,06,,60,69, , , x only. are not reported separately and are included in the appropriate "" category, For years 98, 9, 96, and 97 includes gold of Bank of France, French Exchange Stabilization Fund, and French dependencies; for subsequent years excludes the Stabilization Fund. Includes of other Continental OEEC countries, Finland, Spain, Yugoslavia, Bank for International Settlements (both for its own and European Payments Union account), gold to be distributed by the Tripartite Commission for Restitution of Monetary, and unpublished gold of certain Western European countries. Excludes gold of, but includes dollar balances held by, the U.S.S.R. Includes of International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Monetary Fund, and United Nations and other international organizations. Excludes of Bank for International Settlements, which are included under "Continental Western Europe." NOTE. Includes reported and estimated gold of central banks, governments, and international institutions, and official and private dollar reported by banks m the United States, valued at $.67 per fine ounce in 98 and at $ per fine ounce for other years shown. include principally deposits and U. S. Government securities (Treasury bills, certificates of indebtedness, and notes and bonds reported as purchased within months of maturity). Figures for 98 are estimated on the basis of gold at the end of that year plus dollar reported by New York City banks as of May, 99, the first date on which. such were reported. Estimates for 9 are preliminary. MARCH 9