Technology. Focus: Optical sensing & Communication. Neutral (maintain) Sector Update
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- Corey Flynn
- 6 years ago
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1 Focus: Optical sensing & Communication Our alliance partner, Daiwa, recently issued a thematic report on the Optical Sensing and Communication (OSC) sector, focusing on the sector s large market potential and exciting growth prospects. Forecasting a 113% CAGR for the consumer-laser market (including automotive) for 217-2, we flag Globe as a beneficiary. Inari is our preferred exposure in the infrastructure-laser space. Consumer-laser market up and coming With the improving adoption of vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) technology in smartphones, the former has been fast replacing LED sensors, and creating a new leg of growth for the consumer laser market. VCSEL s superiority (over LED), enhances photonic-sensing qualities required amongst others in proximity sensing, gesture reading and biometric recognition. Likewise, VCSEL adoption has found its way in smartphone 3D-depth imaging, to facilitate and enhance augmented reality/virtual reality user experiences. On the infrastructure-laser market front, continued bandwidth upgrades in the wire-line data transmission infrastructure will likely ensure multi-year demand growth. Automotive segment likely to drive future consumer-laser market Beyond smartphones, the next driver for the consumer laser market will likely be led by the automotive segment via adoption of laser headlights and more so by light detection and ranging (LiDAR) for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). Growth in this area should be more prevalent once penetration of autonomous vehicles increases, beyond 22. A massively growing market Underpinned by demand from the smartphone market, Daiwa expects the consumer laser market at the die/array level to exceed USD4m in and growing at a CAGR of 114% over 217-2E (Fig 2) (see A whole new world, 28 June 217). By 225, the market size is estimated to be worth USD1bn, which will be driven predominantly by the automotive sector, with a crossover from the smartphone sector by E (Fig 4). At the module level, the total consumer laser market is expected to be valued at USD1bn in and to surpass USD1bn in (Fig 3). Inari and Globe are our top picks We maintain our Neutral sector view, but are positive on the OSC subsegment. For exposure to the infrastructure laser segment, we like Inari (INRI MK, RM2.12, BUY) for its data server chip business, which in our view will benefit from data-network upgrades. In the consumer and automotive laser space, Globe (GTB MK, RM6.3, BUY) will likely be a key beneficiary given its strong partnership with its Austrian customer, where the latter has established a strong foothold in this space. Sector Update Technology Neutral (maintain) Absolute Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Globe Inari KESM MPI Uchi Unisem Scicom Relative Performance (%) Globe Inari KESM MPI Uchi Unisem Scicom 9 31/12/ 31/1/217 28/2/217 31/3/217 3/4/217 31/5/217 Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg Kevin Low (63) kevin.low@affinhwang.com Peer Comparison Rating Sh Pr TP Mkt Cap Year Core PE (x) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA P/B ROE (%) Div. Yield (%) (RM) (RM) (RMm) end CY17E CY18E CY17E CY18E (x) (x) CY17E CY18E CY17E CY18E Globetronics BUY ,697 Dec Inari BUY ,121 Jun KESM BUY July MPI HOLD ,812 Jun Scicom BUY Jun Uchi HOLD Dec Unisem HOLD ,524 Dec Average 13, Source: Bloomberg, Affin Hwang forecasts; share prices as of close on 28 June 217 Page 1 of 7
2 E 222E 223E 224E 225E 221E 222E 223E 224E 225E E 222E 223E 224E 225E 29 June 217 Focus charts Fig 1: Global OSC market forecast* Fig 2: Consumer laser market forecast (die/array level) 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Infrastructure laser Consumer laser Growth (RHS) Note: * Consumer lasers include mainly lasers applied in smartphones and automotive Smartphone Gaming, IIoT & others Automotive Growth (RHS) Fig 3: Consumer laser market forecast (module level)* 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Fig 4: Consumer laser market forecast by value: smartphone vs. auto 1,4 1,2 1, crossover in size Smartphone Gaming, IIoT & others Automotive Growth (RHS) Smartphone Automotive Note: * Total markup from wafer (die/array) level to module level is 2-25x Fig 5: Global OC market forecast Fig 6: OC market revenue breakdown by application 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % MSA infrastructure 33% Datacentre 2% Datacentre MSA infrastructure Source: Photonics Technology & Industry Development Association (PTIDA), Daiwa forecasts FTTX Growth (RHS) Source: Daiwa estimates FTTX 47% Page 2 of 7
3 Proxy for the consumer laser market New capex investments, a further RM2m, should increase installed capacity to 36m units/month (+16%) for the light sensor and 12m units/month (+71%) for the gesture sensor by end 3Q17. The light sensor is expected to be designed into its North US customer s entire product portfolio while a potential bundling strategy for the wireless headset (in which the gesture sensor is designed in), necessitates the capacity upgrades. Globe s other US customer is also undergoing qualification for auto laser headlamps, putting Globe in a position to benefit from the strong consumer laser market growth. Ramp up in light sensors Globe is expected to deliver 8m units of the sensor in June, to fulfil demand for its North US customer s new product launch in 3Q17. Globe expects volume shipments to rise to 25m units in July, once equipment is fully installed and qualified. The next leg up in capacity by 3Q17, raises the question if more than one light sensor is required per device, possibly leading to a re-rating in earnings. Bundling strategy for wireless headset likely a blue sky scenario Although Globe s gesture sensor volume has progressively improved, production remains relatively low at 6m units/month. Raw material constraints are gradually being resolved paving the way for better output. A blue sky scenario of bundling of the wireless headset with future smartphone models is a major positive catalyst. Automotive laser headlamps next? Globe has been the partner for a niche LED manufacturer based in the US. We are excited that Globe and its customer are currently undergoing qualification by two German automotive manufacturers for the latter s laser headlamps, and could be a positive catalyst, if materialised. Maintain BUY and 12-month TP of RM8 (based on 2x EPS) With the strong growth prospects in the consumer laser market and coupled with its strategic partnership with its Austrian customer, we think that Globe is still in the early days of a strong earnings upcycle. With an expanding contribution from the sensor segment, we project a - earnings CAGR of 71%. Key risk to our call: loss of key customer. Earnings & Valuation Summary FYE 31 Dec 215 Revenue (RMm) EBITDA (RMm) Pretax profit (RMm) Net profit (RMm) EPS (sen) PER (x) Core net profit (RMm) Core EPS (sen) Core EPS growth (%).5 (57.8) Core PER (x) Net DPS (sen) Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Chg in EPS (%) Affin/Consensus (x) Source: Company, Bloomberg, Affin Hwang forecasts Company Update Globetronics GTB MK Sector: Technology 28 June 217 BUY (maintain) Upside 33% Price Target: RM8. Previous Target: RM8. (RM) May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Price Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute +7.% +2.6% +92.1% Rel to KLCI +6.5% +19.% +77.8% Stock Data Issued shares (m) Mkt cap (RMm)/(US$m) /41.4 Avg daily vol - 6mth (m) wk range (RM) Est free float 53.5% BV per share (RM).9 P/BV (x) 6.86 Net cash/ (debt) (RMm) (1Q17) ROE () 28.8% Derivatives Nil Shariah Compliant Yes Key Shareholders EPF 11.7% General Produce 7.2% Wiserite Sdn Bhd Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg 6.9% Kevin Low (63) kevin.low@affinhwang.com Page 3 of 7
4 GLOBETRONICS FINANCIAL SUMMARY Profit & Loss Statement Key Financial Ratios and Margins FYE Dec (RMm) 215 FYE Dec (RMm) 215 Total revenue Growth Operating expenses (257) (164) (311) (395) (428) Revenue (%) (3.2) (37.3) EBITDA EBITDA (%) (17.6) (41.1) Depreciation (19) (2) (38) (37) (32) Core net profit (%).8 (57.8) Amortisation EBIT Profitability Net interest income/(expense) EBITDA margin (%) Associates' contribution PBT margin (%) Others Net profit margin (%) Pretax profit Effective tax rate (%) Tax (1) (8) (11) (17) (19) ROA (%) Minority interest Core ROE (%) Net profit ROCE (%) Core net profit Dividend payout ratio (%) Balance Sheet Statement Liquidity FYE Dec (RMm) 215 Current ratio (x) Fixed assets Op. cash flow (RMm) Other long term assets Free cashflow (RMm) Total non-current assets FCF/share (sen) Cash and equivalents Stocks Asset management Debtors Debtors turnover (days) Other current assets Stock turnover (days) Total current assets Creditors turnover (days) Creditors Short term borrowings Capital structure Other current liabilities Net Gearing (%) (55.8) (62.7) (4.7) (4.4) (46.8) Total current liabilities Interest Cover (x) nm nm nm nm nm Long term borrowings Other long term liabilities Total long term liabilities Quarterly Profit & Loss FYE 31 Dec (RMm) 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Shareholders' Funds Revenue Operating expenses Cash Flow Statement EBITDA FYE Dec (RMm) 215 Depreciation EBIT EBIT Depreciation & amortisation Net int income/(expense) Working capital changes 5 15 (21) (1) (5) Associates' contribution Cash tax paid (1) (8) (11) (17) (19) Exceptional Items Others (4) Pretax profit Cashflow from operations Tax Minority interest Capex (32) (9) (8) (35) (15) Net profit Disposal/(purchases) Core net profit Others Cash flow from investing (17) (6) (77) (33) (13) Margins (%) EBITDA Debt raised/(repaid) 8 (11) PBT Equity raised/(repaid) Net profit Net inct income/(expense) Dividends paid (65) (65) (69) (12) (115) Others (1) 7 (3) (2) (2) Cash flow from financing (51) (66) (4) (12) (116) Net change in CF 21 (13) (25) 4 24 Free Cash Flow Source: Company, Affin Hwang forecasts Page 4 of 7
5 Ready for data-infra-bandwidth upgrades Inari recently commenced assembly for IRIS infrared (IR) chips for a German MNC, providing a third growth engine for the group supplementing its radio-frequency (RF) and fibre-optic (FO) businesses. RF should see better demand ahead of restocking demand. Meanwhile, bandwidth upgrades from datacentre operators should benefit high-bandwidth FO transceivers such as Broadcom and in turn Inari. On a smaller scale, Inari does VCSEL assembly and test for Broadcom s data communication business. Maintain Buy. IRIS chip ramping up smoothly Production for the IRIS chips have gradually ramped up to its installed capacity of 5m units/month, after being fully qualified in February 217. Capacity is expected to double up in July with further plans of capacity expansion by 3Q17, bringing installed capacity closer to the 16m unit/month mark. Having been designed into a leading Korean smartphone brand, we estimate that by FY18E, IRIS chips would contribute up to 14% of Inari s revenue. RF business picking up Inari should see a seasonal pick up in the RF division, to facilitate new builds for its North US customer in 2H17. This should be followed by improved demand for RF filters with current technology limitation on noise reduction where faster data transfer speeds has required the need for additional filters. Inari is upgrading tester capacity by 1% to 77 units. Slowly progressing in data-server segment Inari s expansion into the long-haul data-server chip mixed-signal testing business is progressing well, albeit tracking behind initial plans. The number of testers should reach 36 units by mid-217 (previously c.58 units). However, delays are not significant (c.9% of FY18E sales) and due to change in business strategy, as Broadcom will now consign equipment. Maintain BUY and 12-month TP of RM2.6 (based on 2x FY18E EPS) Inari is well positioned in the RF, wired and enterprise-storage space, in our view. Near-term growth should continue to be fuelled by rising mobile-device complexity, wider global LTE coverage and broader adoption of the IRIS biometric scanning function. Its foot in the data server business and VCSEL packaging should allow it to ride on the next wave of consumer-demand-led laser growth. Risk: high single-customer concentration. Earnings & Valuation Summary FYE 3 June 215 Revenue (RMm) ,4.9 1, , ,816.6 EBITDA (RMm) Pretax profit (RMm) Net profit (RMm) EPS (sen) PER (x) Core net profit (RMm) Core EPS (sen) Core EPS growth (%) Core PER (x) Net DPS (sen) Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Chg in EPS (%) Affin/Consensus (x) Source: Company, Bloomberg, Affin Hwang forecasts Company Update Inari INRI MK Sector: Technology 28 June 217 BUY (maintain) Upside 23% Price Target: RM2.6 Previous Target: RM2.6 (RM) Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Price Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute +2.9% +4.4% +43.5% Rel to KLCI +2.4% +3.% +32.9% Stock Data Issued shares (m) 1993 Mkt cap (RMm)/(US$m) /984 Avg daily vol - 6mth (m) wk range (RM) Est free float 62.2% BV per share (RM).43 P/BV (x) 4.93 Net cash/ (debt) (RMm) (3Q17) ROE () 24.3% Derivatives Nil Shariah Compliant Yes Key Shareholders Insas 19.9% KWAP 6.6% EPF Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg 6.4% Kevin Low (63) kevin.low@affinhwang.com Page 5 of 7
6 INARI FINANCIAL SUMMARY Profit & Loss Statement Key Financial Ratios and Margins FYE June (RMm) 215 FYE June (RMm) 215 Total revenue Growth Operating expenses (767) (835) (97) (1233) (1432) Revenue (%) EBITDA EBITDA (%) Depreciation (32) (48) (57) (55) (54) Core net profit (%) Amortisation EBIT Profitability Net interest income/(expense) (2) EBITDA margin (%) Associates' contribution PBT margin (%) Others Net profit margin (%) Pretax profit Effective tax rate (%) Tax (2) (6) (13) (17) (2) ROA (%) Minority interest 2 1 () (3) (7) Core ROE (%) Net profit ROCE (%) Core net profit Dividend payout ratio (%) Balance Sheet Statement Liquidity FYE June (RMm) 215 Current ratio (x) Fixed assets Op. cash flow (RMm) Other long term assets Free cashflow (RMm) Total non-current assets FCF/share (sen) Cash and equivalents Stocks Asset management Debtors Debtors turnover (days) Other current assets Stock turnover (days) Total current assets Creditors turnover (days) Creditors Short term borrowings Capital structure Other current liabilities Net Gearing (%) (43.2) (25.9) (21.5) (28.3) (36.8) Total current liabilities Interest Cover (x) Long term borrowings Other long term liabilities Total long term liabilities Quarterly Profit & Loss FYE June (RMm) 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Shareholders' Funds Revenue Operating expenses Cash Flow Statement EBITDA FYE June (RMm) 215 Depreciation EBIT EBIT Depreciation & amortisation Net int income/(expense) Working capital changes Associates' contribution Cash tax paid Exceptional Items Others Pretax profit Cashflow from operations Tax Minority interest Capex Net profit Disposal/(purchases) Core net profit Others Cash flow from investing Margins (%) EBITDA Debt raised/(repaid) PBT Equity raised/(repaid) Net profit Net inct income/(expense) Dividends paid Others Cash flow from financing Net change in CF Free Cash Flow Source: Company, Affin Hwang forecasts Page 6 of 7
7 Equity Rating Structure and Definitions BUY Total return is expected to exceed +1% over a 12-month period HOLD Total return is expected to be between -5% and +1% over a 12-month period SELL Total return is expected to be below -5% over a 12-month period NOT RATED Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad does not provide research coverage or rating for this company. Report is intended as information only and not as a recommendation The total expected return is defined as the percentage upside/downside to our target price plus the net dividend yield over the next 12 months. OVERWEIGHT Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to outperform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months NEUTRAL Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to perform inline with the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months UNDERWEIGHT Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe is expected to under-perform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months This report is intended for information purposes only and has been prepared by Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) ( the Company ) based on sources believed to be reliable. However, such sources have not been independently verified by the Company, and as such the Company does not give any guarantee, representation or warranty (express or implied) as to the adequacy, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Facts, information, views and/or opinion presented in this report have not been reviewed by, may not reflect information known to, and may present a differing view expressed by other business units within the Company, including investment banking personnel. Reports issued by the Company, are prepared in accordance with the Company s policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research reports. Under no circumstances shall the Company, its associates and/or any person related to it be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but are not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profit and damages) arising from the use of or reliance on the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Any opinions or estimates in this report are that of the Company, as of this date and subject to change without prior notice. Under no circumstances shall this report be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The Company and/or any of its directors and/or employees may have an interest in the securities mentioned therein. The Company may also make investment decisions or take proprietary positions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views in this report. Comments and recommendations stated here rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences and hence an independent evaluation is essential. Investors are advised to independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and to seek independent financial, legal and other advice on the information and/or opinion contained in this report before investing or participating in any of the securities or investment strategies or transactions discussed in this report. Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data. The Company s research, or any portion thereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the consent of the Company. The Company, is a participant of the Capital Market Development Fund-Bursa Research Scheme, and will receive compensation for the participation. This report is printed and published by: Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad 22nd Floor, Menara Boustead, 69, Jalan Raja Chulan, 52 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. T : F : research@affinhwang.com Page 7 of 7
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