OUR MISSION: A SUS TAINABLE ENE RGY SUPP LY FOR EVERYONE

Transcription

1 OUR MISSION: A SUS TAINABLE ENE RGY SUPP LY FOR EVERYONE

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3 ":03;6<//=5=636>6 :03;6<//=5?3?>1=36 A! -8 *'*- =?/662 B/662! $$!"#!$"!$%&'$)#'$"%*"+%$&%" *)$!!#)#$"+,!+#"-%$"-!"-#%$!+-$'!."$%$"$","#-" $!+#."#+"-"-"#$+#."#"--$*&#**#!,"#-",!+#%!,*&#/ OUR MISSION: A SUS TAINABLE ENE RGY SUPP LY FOR EVERYONE

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5 " C C D E F F G D&$ " E;&$"< "& #*+/66> " /663" 7) ;,$< /663 " &.-. =1. / H/?.-. " $ " 5I / " /66166 % C?>I "!,$, " =566=?66* / H;)/66><H 1I.-." /6 06I 26 >6I, H 06I

6 Other Sectors Electricity Iron & Steel Cement 2.2 $".-.. / H ;C /660 /66?< $ " " $

7 Table A. Overview of sectoral proposals Policy-based Technology-based Emissions-based A B C D E F G CDM Sectoral Targets Binding national targets Transnational / emission global targets Technology standards sector-based SD-PAMs Technology cooperation Classic Sectoral Sector no lose targets Binding sectoral targets Legal status Binding / non-binding Non-binding Binding / non-binding Non-binding Non-binding Non-binding Non-binding Binding Binding Government Companies Private entity company) Private entity company) Government Government Government Governments and industry associations Responsible entity Government Transnational / global National National National National National National / transnational / global Regional coverage National Transnational / global Scope Sectoral / economy wide Sectoral Sectoral Sectoral Project based Multi-)Project / sectoral Sectoral Sectoral Economy wide absolute/intensity absolute/intensity absolute / intensity absolute / intensity absolute absolute / intensity emission target Target type Policy implementation Technology / R&D Standard implementation To be determined Country-individual cut on current emissions / BAU Country-individual cut on current emissions / BAU Country-identical cut on current emissions / BAU for all projects in sector in country Project-individual cut on current emissions / BAU To be determined Uniform base, with some regional differentiation Stringency Defined by government n.a. Implementation Up to government Voluntary Up to government Up to company Built-in design Built-in design Up to government Up to government Up to government None None None / carve-out / within None / seperate market Within Within Within Within Within Relation to carbon market Carbon market / international funds Carbon market / international funds Carbon market / international funds Carbon market Carbon market Internal carbon market / international funds / ODA Private sector finance / international funds / ODA Public and private sector finance Private sector finance / international funds / ODA Financing Engaging developing countries Engaging developing countries Engaging developing countries Cost efficiency, sustainable development Cost efficiency, sustainable development Competitiveness / cost efficiency Competitiveness / technology development and diffusion Technology development and diffusion Engaging developing countries Focus Agreement by the COP Agreement by the COP Agreement by COP, advice by new technical body? Agreement by COP Industry association CDM EB CDM EB New body with government and industry participation Commitment proposed by national governments, acknowledged / accepted by COP Governing body Kyoto style targets Cement: National baseline measured in tco2 / t Cement: National baseline measured in tco2 / t Electricity: Multi-project baseline of 600g/kWh Cement: Country average baseline measured in tco2 / t Steel: Introduction of heat recovery for blast furnaces Aviation: Emission trading system for international aviation linked to Kyoto Protocol carbon market Automotive: Top-Runner- Approach Japan; Canadian automobile industry commitment for total reduction by 2010 Steel: APP steel sectoral task force - SOACT Steelmaking Handbook South Africa: promotion of energy efficient low cost housing Example n.a. = not applicable Sectoral approaches which are the focus of this paper

8 $ " ; < G $ C C / H D!E F! + ;&$"< C ;&)< " C D!E F "#$! %& $ " J C,!" H " " & F C & ; <&$"&%

9 " & ) ; < J. # ' & J & $ J & H * +. $ +/663 " &$"&) /663 + ) * C + /663 H - " H /663 )=5 + C + +

10 *H *&"$ ) $C ) )=?/6=6! &$"&) )=5 + K &$"L&) + * &$"L&) &"$ * ; < &"$ &$"L&),! H )=5 + +)$* K +)$* ; < ) +)$* ; < &"$ +)$* ")=5 + )$* /6/6 )

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12 +, -+. # -/ /= // /1 0 3 =0 / = 1/ +M N=3 // = 0== 0=/ 0=1 0/ 0/= 0// 0/1 0/0 0/5 +/5 & /5 &$"&) /> ;+)$*</ = H 1/ " O1? 4 -/1

13 +, "& #*+/66> " /663" 7) ;,$< /663 * ".2 P /662 *J *;**< " J,! " ; < ; < ; /6=/< F.-. " 7 $C /6=/- $C ) 7 ) ;$.7)< F & 5 E $C ;,!/662< -.-. ;./662< " ; /665< Q Q JJQ Q Q $ Q +. =

14 .-. + >0I &$,/665/616 05I;J/662<+,! D E; -8 /661<"C + F ; +*< * % $ C % C J ; /66?<- +* /6=/ ;&/66>< D E? &F *C$7",P#,;/>< C D E F F ",! 0 G D& $ " E;&$"< /

15 . # CH " ; /665< ;- /662<"D E J.-. G G ;&/66?<" J R ;,!/662< " R R =1. / H/?.-. " H 1/ / 01 / ;C <?2=>.-.;& /66><" $ "5I / " " =2 &+ 56I 36I 06 /66166 % C?>I "!,$, " =566=?66* / H;)/66><H 1I.-. " /6 06I 26 >6I, H 06I ;/66>< 1

16 Other Sectors Electricity Iron & Steel Cement 2.2 /=".-.. /H ;C /660 /66?<.-+! " = ; <! # ) ; <! ; < C. F ;-)< = - 0

17 TWh Biomass/waste Solar/wind/other Geothermal Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal China India Brazil Mexico South Africa South Korea USA Japan Russia EU 27!) -) $ /66> // C/665=336 TWh United States EU 27 China Japan Russia India Brazil Korea South Africa Mexico ",, ; /=<),=336 =336" # 36 " C &F 20I $30I! &F *C $, P. & / - ; < + C" " ) " H " ;-)< + 7 C -) 5

18 70% 60%. 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% &F *C $ 7, P #,/>!) -); J< $ /66> /1 $/661/665 " C &F Q, C ;" /=< " /= /665 4 " N C?

19 = C H / ; < C # + ;< " / / $ " /1" >

20 , : 4 OECD a) EIT b) Non-OECD World 67,SL/H %.7/7%).$ ' 7$.7,SL/H.7$37,SL/H 37$+77,SL/H 8+77,SL/H , ,070, $ OECD EIT Non-OECD World OECD EIT Non-OECD World OECD EIT Non-OECD World OECD EIT Non-OECD World OECD EIT Non-OECD World OECD!; EIT Non-OECD World , , )) ))< ))< OECD EIT Non-OECD World OECD EIT Non-OECD World OECD a) EIT b) Non-OECD World 1, ,114 1, ,818 3, , , ,120 7,360 a) Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development b) Economies in Transition )/66> " // ) % $.7/7%).$ ' 6.7,SL/H 637,SL/H 6+77,SL/H Sector-based 'bottom-up' potential Low 4,400 5,600 6,300 High 6,400 8,400,300 Economy-wide 'top-down' Low 3,00 6,700 8,700 High,700 12,400 14,500 " /1 ) 2

21 .-.,! " C - " ;D E<;+#<, LG 35I ;/662< /0 ; < " C " 3

22 " " " D E F " ;& /666< =62I =336 /66> =33? N 15I China India Brazil Mexico South Africa South Korea USA Japan Russia EU 27 Rest Developing Rest Developed 350 in million tonnes /5 " >5I 53I. C Rest Developing 11% Rest Developed 4% EU 27 16% China 35% Russia 5% Japan % /? USA 7% South Korea 4% Mexico 1% India 4% Brazil 3% South Africa 1% /66> " " C &F #,, F C =6

23 Semi-finished and Finished Steel Products Scrap Pig Iron, &F *C $ 7,$ P #,/> ,!+ /> " /66? & >6>5I " C" " C " +# 4 " " / " / F // ==

24 %&!%$/66> =333 /2 C /R -,%;, % / < J / ; /><" " - $ +#! +# - / +#+#$ / ; /3< $L+/662 /3 / =/

25 *C +# $ +# $ =6+# " +# ;$/66>< " /0 R / " " " / 0 C ;, <,/66? 251* 0/I " C C $ $ ; /2<- " / 0 - ;& $ +#< " &$" CJ 25I35I /,+0656L /,+/5L / +# ;$/662<",%J / $ =1

26 $/662 /=6 R / /665&$".-/ )! /== # H " )F; < ; < $ H Q " C ; < " C ; =0

27 <C =066 " C " " ") 35I " D E ) China India Brazil Mexico South Africa South Korea USA Japan Russia Mtonnes ,. /=/ )=336G/66? =6I? ", 30 /666 /66? <,/660/665 20, 10 Mt 0 &F *C $ 7,$ P #,/5< ,! /=1 " /666/66? C ; < =5

28 " C 4 " /, ; < + Production Clinker/ cement ratio Primary intensity Primary energy Process carbon emissions Carbon emissions Total carbon energy use emissions Emission intensity Share of world total Savings potential energy efficiency % change to current emissions Mt GJ/t cement PJ MtCO 2 MtCO 2 MtCO 2 tco 2 /t % MtCO 2 China % 5.7 6, % % India % % % Brazil 40 81% % % Mexico 41 86% % % South Africa 13 0% % % Korea 55 8% % % USA 8 0% % % Japan 70 0% % % Russia 55 80% % % Europe 27) % % % ROW % 4.6 2, % % WORLD TOTAL % , % % Production: all 2006, except for South Africa and EU ) Best Practice: 3. GJ/t clinker C/C ratio: based on 2004 data, except for EU ) and US 2006) Carbon intensity: based on 2003 data for carbon intensity of fuel mix, except for EU-27 based on data Cembureau) Process emissions: based on an emission factor of 525 kg CO2/tonne clinker " /5 / $ /665 1//* / =5I ;" /5<$ ; < $ $ ; /==< =?

29 $/662 /=0 / /665&$" =>

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31 / 0 /-+ # = > " D E % # # " #. " F " 1=" =3

32 Policy-based Technology-based Emissions-based A B C D E F G SD-PAMs Technology cooperation Technology standards sector-based Transnational / emission global targets CDM Sectoral Targets Classic Sectoral Sector no lose targets Binding sectoral targets Binding national targets Legal status Binding / non-binding Non-binding Binding / non-binding Non-binding Non-binding Non-binding Non-binding Binding Binding Responsible entity Government Governments and industry associations Regional coverage National Transnational / global Government Companies Private entity company) Private entity company) Government Government Government National / transnational / global Transnational / global National National National National National Scope Sectoral / economy wide Sectoral Sectoral Sectoral Project based Multi-)Project / sectoral Sectoral Sectoral Economy wide Target type Policy implementation Technology / R&D Standard implementation Stringency Defined by government n.a. Uniform base, with some regional differentiation absolute / intensity emission target To be determined absolute/intensity absolute/intensity absolute / intensity absolute / intensity absolute Project-individual cut on current emissions / BAU Country-identical cut on current emissions / BAU for Country-individual cut on all projects in sector in current emissions / BAU country Country-individual cut on current emissions / BAU To be determined Implementation Up to government Voluntary Up to government Up to company Built-in design Built-in design Up to government Up to government Up to government Relation to carbon market Financing Focus None None None / carve-out / within None / seperate market Within Within Within Within Within Private sector finance / international funds / ODA Engaging developing countries Public and private sector finance Technology development and diffusion Private sector finance / international funds / ODA Competitiveness / technology development and diffusion Internal carbon market / international funds / ODA Competitiveness / cost efficiency Carbon market Cost efficiency, sustainable development Carbon market Cost efficiency, sustainable development Carbon market / international funds Engaging developing countries Carbon market / international funds Engaging developing countries Carbon market / international funds Engaging developing countries Governing body Commitment proposed by national governments, acknowledged / accepted by COP New body with government and industry participation Agreement by COP Industry association CDM EB CDM EB Agreement by COP, advice by new technical body? Agreement by the COP Agreement by the COP Example South Africa: promotion of energy efficient low cost housing Steel: APP steel sectoral task force - SOACT Steelmaking Handbook Automotive: Top-Runner- Approach Japan; Canadian automobile industry commitment for total reduction by 2010 Aviation: Emission trading system for international aviation linked to Kyoto Protocol carbon market Steel: Introduction of heat recovery for blast furnaces Electricity: Multi-project baseline of 600g/kWh Cement: Country average baseline measured in tco2 / t Cement: National baseline measured in tco2 / t Cement: National baseline measured in tco2 / t Kyoto style targets n.a. = not applicable Sectoral approaches which are the focus of this paper " 1= +

33 ",! 7 ) ;$.7)< F ;$C ',!/662< " #R+ ;&" 1=< ' L HLH C D /6=5 ED /6/6ED/6/6 C / L=66E<;&+< ;&< +* " ;< $H F " J "P,! & * /662 P/662- N!"# ;$< $. " ;&$"< ;&)< C ;< $. " H ;+<!", +* J ;< /=

34 /-. H ; )/66> $#. =1 >5=< ; -8 /662<" " 1/. C C" CH ;$<!" " H N " $ ;&<$ +)$* $ ;<$ $ C C " +* J $ ; < ;+<$ " C ;<!" )J +* $C " +* C $C " +* J+ J " J //

35 +* $ - ;< " H $C " +* - +* J C +* J " C & H /1

36 Policy-based Technology-based Emissions-based A B C D E F G SD-PAMs Technology cooperation Technology standards sectorbased Transnational / global emission targets CDM Sectoral Targets Classic Sectoral Sector no lose targets Binding sectoral targets Binding national targets Contribute to overall global reductions / Environmental effectiveness Potentially positive depending on scale of policies; not all potential emission reductions have also a direct SD benefit Potentially positive, but on its own not sufficient Potentially positive, but depends on stringency Potentially positive, but ambitious targets are unlikely due to industry Zero sum at best led decision making process Zero sum at best Potentially positive, but depends on stringency; implementation uncertain due to no-lose nature Potentially positive, but depends on stringency Potentially positive, but depends on stringency Environmental Prospects for achieving largescale transformation of sectors High, depending on suitability of sector / economy Incentive for countries to adopt approach Additionality Technical / financial assistance; alternative to emission targets Depending on technology and scale Technical assistance with little cost and effort involved Potentially high, depending on technology, scale and implementation method Technical / financial assistance; alternative to emission targets Depending on technology and scale Not an issue as no credits are issued. Difficult to determine GHG n.a. n.a. Not an issue once target is set Difficult to determine co-benefits of policies. Small Depends on the level of the baseline / applicability of sector High, depending on suitability of sector n.a. Credits Credits Credits Credits Credits Projects with current emissions lower than baseline nonadditional) receive credits. No longer an issue once target is set taking into account Annex I Depends on stringency of targets baseline. Ok if demand for credits is increased High No longer an issue once target is set taking into account Annex I targets High No longer an issue once target is set taking into account Annex I targets Economic Global cost effectiveness Depends on policy set High, but possible little impact Accounting for structural differences between countries Focus on sustainable development Yes Transaction costs Depends on policy set Low Depends on policy set, lack of emission trading may attribute High, if linked to the global carbon reductions per sector that are not market the most cost effective Only if there is regional differentiation of the standards Depends on the type of standard, implementation method and verification possibilities Depends on details of commitment Low once baseline is set, but higher for baseline setting and monitoring Globally more cost effective than Kyoto-scheme without CDM, but less cost effective than comprehensive scheme. Globally more cost effective than Kyoto-scheme without CDM, but less cost effective than comprehensive scheme. Globally less cost effective than comprehensive scheme. Nationally within sector depending on implementation. Globally less cost effective than comprehensive scheme. High Nationally within sector depending on implementation. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes High since project by project Low once target is set. Lower effort for project Transaction cost nationally development, once baseline is set depends on implementation. Low once target is set. Transaction cost nationally depends on implementation Low once target is set. Transaction cost nationally depends on implementation Evaluation Distribution and equity Common but differentiated responsibility Competitiveness / Carbonleakage Special consideration of developing country needs Cooperation approach Competitiveness not the focus; potential leakage between Cooperation approach ensures countries depending on coverage broad coverage and national implementation Automatically differentiates per sector; further if there is regional differentiation of the standards, delayed implementation or nonbinding for some) developing countries Only if there is regional differentiation of the standards, delayed implementation or nonbinding for some) developing countries Depends on coverage and implementation policy. Potential to Potential to address both issues if address both issues if broad broad coverage. coverage. Treating Non-Annex I countries distinct from Annex I countries Competitiveness not the focus; increase in coverage decreaases competitiveness concerns; potential leakage between countries depending on coverage and national implementation Treating Non-Annex I countries distinct from Annex I countries Competitiveness not the focus; increase in coverage decreaases competitiveness concerns; potential leakage between countries depending on coverage and national implementation Depends on target stringency Depends on target stringency Depends on target stringency Competitiveness not the focus; increase in coverage decreaases competitiveness concerns; potential leakage between countries depending on coverage and national implementation Competitiveness not the focus; increase in coverage decreaases competitiveness concerns; potential leakage between countries depending on coverage and national implementation Competitiveness not the focus; increase in coverage decreaases competitiveness concerns; potential leakage between countries depending on coverage and national implementation Technical and institutional Required government capacity Depends on policy set Low Required private sector capacity Depends on policy set Data availability, monitoring, reporting, verification Simplicity / possibility of negotiation n.a. = not applicable Low Reporting on implementation only. No need for data collection / No MRV necessary verification / maybe review Difficult to determine stringency of commitment Capacity to develop the standards Low Low Low together with the industry Depends on national rules. Capacity to develop the standards Potentially higher with binding together with the governments targets Depends on type of standard. Confidentiality issues can play a role in baseline setting Agreement on the approach as Easy to negotiate, high agreement such is relatively simple, but from all parties. Industry agreement on standards itself is involvement necessary. difficult Limitations / problematic issues Medium evaluation Positive evaluation preparation and review of greenhouse gas inventories as current practice. Very difficult to negotiate as involving governments and industry in decision making High Lower than under CDM due to standardisation Project specific monitoring and Standardized monitoring and verification; risk of use of different verification strictness COP agreement achieved, but cumbersome decision making by CDM Executive Board. Careful decision making to avoid manipulation Complex determination of sector baseline but overall improvement decision making. Careful decision making to avoid manipulation Sectoral approaches which are the focus of this paper High, since credits are issued to High, since credits are issued to High, since credits are issued to governments, which have to pass governments, which have to governments, which have to on the incentive implement policies to meet target implement policies to meet target Depends on national rules Preparation and review of greenhouse gas inventories as current practice; definition of the sector and confidentiality difficult Complex determination of sector target and appropriate consideration of country specific circumstances. Best if magnitude is known when Annex I targets are set. Requires rules to avoid manipulation Depends on national rules. Potentially higher with binding targets Preparation and review of greenhouse gas inventories as current practice; definition of the sector and confidentiality difficult Complex determination of sector target and appropriate consideration of country specific circumstances. Best if magnitude Depends on national rules. Potentially higher with binding targets Preparation and review of greenhouse gas inventories as current practice. Complex determination of sector target and appropriate consideration of country specific circumstances. Best if magnitude is known when Annex I targets are is known when Annex I targets are set. set. Requires rules to avoid Requires rules to avoid manipulation manipulation " 1/ ; /662<

37 2 " " " C C,!L7) H H N )=5 / # $ " ;< G $ C C / H " G $ F & " - C C " +$ +)$* " H C G " + ; < " " MN /5

38 $ " C +*J$ ; <,! GHG Intensity Credits PAST TRENDS With current self funded P&Ms With current extnl. supported P&Ms REFERENCE With new self funded P&Ms With new extnl supported P&Ms e.g. SD PAMs, tech funds etc) SECTORAL TARGET With new carbon finance AMBITION POTENTIAL) 0= ; /662< Time G 1 # +*J + $ & GJ " " $ 1 ; < /?

39 7) " M N " H " " +*J J " J " / H N +* " +*& $ 0/ * /663" National Sector X Country A Generating National Interest Testing Approach Data Collection Data Review Baseline Negotiation Sector X Country B G N I D C D R B N Sector Y Country A G N I T A D C D R B N COP 14 COP 15 End CP1 Establish Body Set data/mvr requirements Provide comparable data Baseline negotiation Pilot Phase 0/ International ) C 2-+-.! " />

40 ;&$"< C ;&)< " C " G,! " C "&$" $ &$" C + &$"&) "F " &$"L&) H ". $ " &$"&) " C " ; < H&$" ",!), 0 $ " &$" &)! ",! ;<G0==G &$"&) +*J J &$" &) J +* 0 $ /6=/ /2

41 "+* $ &$" & ) G J+* 2-+-/ "#$! %& C,!" C " J " " J G G J " # +)$* " H +)$* J H C " + +)$* " F H " +)$* " +)$* & " + )$* " +)$* ",! ) G /3

42 ;&"$< " $ " +)$* +*J! J " +)$* +*JJ+* +* J +* J C -+*J +)$* " & $ +)$* H /6/6 "+)$* 2-. ; ) /66>$.=1>5=< C G J ". N; <" - C 16

43 ! $C "! H &$" &) ; < &$"L&)" " " # GG $ H #$! % " $ +)$* ;< $ +)$* ;D E< - C ; < ) F C J $ " ; < ; < " H 1=

44 " C " *#' J +* J?! H C J ; < +&$"&) &$" " *#' D E &$"&). G G J J G " " ".-. C " C 2-.-/ ' " H $ $ D E $ J +* $ H -, 1/

45 $ G + 5 J! D E C" + &$"L&) J " G G =66I&$" &$"; < H L $ H )=5 ; < J & $) H + G " ;+)$* < C J "! +*+ C ; < C *#' 5 % 11

46 H ) ;< ;< J " H *#' ;.-.<.-. " C *#'" C C " " J $C M N $C J "! C C " + C H " =66I C " ; < ; < + HF H $*#'.-. &$"&) DE #$! %H H " H " H +)$* +)$* $ 10

47 ) ) ) " 01F C & ; <&$"&% " 01 ) ; < J. # ' & J & $ J & H * +. $ +/663 " &$"&) /663 + C + /663 H - 15

48 2-/ ) * " H. )=5 F" )=5 + C + +. ) * H ; ;*#'<<. $C ",! F J $ ; < C *&"$ ) $C $ J +* $ ; & $) < ) )=?/6=6! &$"&) )=5 + " K &$"L&) 1?

49 +. ) $ ; & $) < &$" &) * &$"L&) &"$ *#' * ; < $+* &"$ &$"L&),! H )=5 + +)$* K +)$* ; < ) +)$* ; < &"$ +)$* ")=5 + )$* /6/6 ) 1>

50

51 4 & # ;/66?< %&% '!*L!'L)L$L%";/66?<2)$L+ &PP-*7;/666<% % ") '! )-1L16 $..#R+)A & + ;/66>< *+,* -' $,$ ) & #7&& "-FP);/66><.' &! 3>2=5?3>1??25 # LLL T OU0/>=V=! J ;/662< % '$ / 0' & ) -8! 7 & P - + ). ;/661< '!# /6=0=/55,&$&6660=/&. -8! ;/662< '!F - " # & & P # - ;/662< 4 0 ' 1! + ) # $;/66><$-. * '.2) $) $ $;/662</ $ 1 '5 '.2) $) $ LLL"CL)L/662LT/662 $L+;/662< $ *++6' 7 *+8+.2) $)$.;/662<! '. ) 7 P. ;.< ;/66>< -' ;/662< ' # P =5 /662 LL LL LL OU1RU?56/?3252 );/66>< *++:'" ' ) $ #. F. ) ; ) <LL %&!% $ ;/66>< $ ; $.$# -&-'$)) 13

52 P +$& F;/66?<$ ' +,$ $ ) LLL LI/6) 0,!;/662<# $-. $C ) 7) &/=/P/662L7)L$.L/662L1;LL< * - * P*-! -8#N ;/662<$ '# + # $;+#$<,7 P!#-,)-;/665<$ & % %<-,*= *++8" $! '!.L+L#";/665<=)+!* %);=333<!. 1'' ' %&! % 06

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54 OUR MISSION: A SUS TAINABLE ENE RGY SUPP LY FOR EVERYONE