Bata India (BATIND) 492

Transcription

1 es Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Hold Target : 515 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 5% What s changed? Target Changed from 462 to 515 EPS FY17E Changed from 11.1 to 12.0 EPS FY18E Changed from 15.0 to 16.7 EPS FY19E Changed from 17.1 to 19.0 Rating Changed from Buy to Hold Quarterly performance Q3FY17 Q3FY16 YoY (%) Q2FY17 QoQ (%) Revenue EBITDA (3.1) EBITDA (%) bps bps PAT Key financials ( crore) FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Net Sales 2,418 2,462 2,754 3,057 EBITDA Net Profit EPS ( ) Valuation summary FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E P/E Target P/E EV to EBITDA Price to book RONW (%) ROCE (%) Stock data Particular Amount Market Capitalisation ( Crore) 6,323.6 Debt (FY16) ( Crore) - Cash (FY16) ( Crore) EV ( Crore) 5, week H/L 613 / 400 Equity Capital ( Crore) 64.3 Face Value ( ) 5 Price performance 1M 3M 6M 12M Bata India Liberty Shoes Relaxo Footwear Research Analysts Bharat Chhoda bharat.chhoda@icicisecurities.com Cheragh Sidhwa cheragh.sidhwa@icicisecurities.com February 13, 2017 Bata India (BATIND) 492 Enhancing product mix to boost revenue Bata India s Q3FY17 results were above our estimates on the revenue and EBITDA front. However, on account of exceptional item (VRS expense), PAT came in below our estimate. Revenues witnessed decent growth of 2.5% YoY to crore marginally above our estimate of crore Higher employee expense, up 8% YoY to 65.8 crore, and higher rent expense, up 5.5% YoY to 89.9 crore, led to a decline in operating margins by 70 bps YoY to 11.8% vs. estimated 11.6%. Absolute EBITDA de-grew 3.1% YoY to 75.7 crore (I-direct estimate: 72.9 crore) Bata had to incur a one-time exceptional expense of voluntary retirement scheme for the Faridabad unit, which was at 21.7 crore. Adjusted PAT (excluding exceptional expense) grew 32.5% YoY to 59.4 crore (I direct estimate: 42.1 crore) mainly on account of higher other income that was at 19 crore vs. 9 crore in Q3FY16 Bata looking at franchise way to expand The management has indicated at expanding its business via franchise model rather than opening company owned EBOs that have a long gestation period to breakeven due to relatively higher rentals & maintenance cost. Bata currently has 64 franchise stores, 1300 retail stores. The company is evaluating new locations and has currently identified 100 potential trade areas covering both malls, high street areas. Focusing on youth centric, women s designs To lure today s young generation, the company is heading for a makeover in its product portfolio. The company will bring in a young team of designers and communication specialists who will focus on casual fashion footwear. Bata is lining up new launches in youth-oriented space through its sub-brands like Power, Weinbrenner and Footin. The upcoming new brands will be more casual and stylish to attract the youth. Strengthening Omni-channel presence Bata has been facing significant competition from online websites, negatively impacting specific categories of Bata. To counter the same, Bata aims to create a separate product portfolio exclusively for online sales that will make its products more competitive against deep discounts offered by e-commerce players. The company has also strengthened its omni-channel presence, which enables its customers to either buy it online and collect it from a store or place a request for a product that they can reserve for up to 48 hours for trial in a store. Improvement in product mix remains crucial; recommend HOLD Like the textile sector, keeping job generation as a primary agenda, a scheme is expected to be implemented for leather and footwear industry, which would incentivise the footwear sector. We believe the scheme augurs well for footwear companies including Bata. Bata s efforts have been in the right direction with focus on SSSG, which would lead to profitable growth for the company. Bata is also doubling its advertising expenditure for FY17 for brand building purposes. We would watch the progress on recent initiatives undertaken by the company to revive the growth. Hence we assign a HOLD recommendation on the stock with a target price of 515 (based on 27.0 FY19E EPS of 19.0). ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research

2 Variance analysis Q3FY17 Q3FY17E Q3FY16 YoY (%) Q2FY17 QoQ (%) Comments Revenue Revenue was above our estimates and recorded a 2.4% YoY growth Other Operating Income Raw Material Expense Gross Margin (%) bps bps Employee Expense Rental Expenses Other Expenses EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) bps bps Operating margins declined marginally by 68 bps YoY on account of higher rental and employee expense Depreciation Interest Other Income Other income came in higher at 19.0 crore vs. 9.0 crore YoY Exceptional Item NA 0.00 NA Exceptional expense on account of VRS PBT Tax Outgo PAT Adjusted PAT stood at 59.4 crore Change in estimates FY17E FY18E FY19E ( Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments Revenue 2, , , , , , We have revised our estimates upwards EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) bps bps bps PAT EPS ( ) ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 2

3 Company Analysis Revenues to grow at CAGR of 8.1% for FY16-19E Bata has adopted a strategy to design products based on various consumers. Other than its leather footwear, the company has started focusing on products catering to the youth, women and kids along with brand extensions in the accessories segment. Bata is lining up new launches in youth-oriented space through its sub-brands like Power, Weinbrenner and Footin. The upcoming new brands will be more casual and stylish to attract the youth. The company is also tapping into fast growing e-commerce by partnering with major players like Flipkart, Amazon, Myntra and Jabong besides its own portal. At the top of the product pyramid for Bata, it has placed the brand Hush Puppies. Hush Puppies has seen good growth over the years and sold over one million pairs in FY15, FY16. The brand has a presence through 68 exclusive brand stores and 37 shop-in-shops in premium departmental stores. The company is planning to position Hush Puppies as an international premium lifestyle brand, which will be more comfortable and contemporary fashion style. The company plans to open Hush Puppies and Footin stores thereby catering to family, women, men, youth and kids segments. The company is also aggressively focussing on children s footwear through the Bubblegummers brand. As per the company, this segment has huge potential with ~18% of India s population below 10 years of age. The company has also entered into an association with brand Disney to create a complete collection covering all types of footwear ranging from casual shoes, canvas shoes to ballerinas to everyday-wear sandals and chappals. A high level of competition from MNCs and e-commerce players adversely impacted revenue growth in H1FY17. The second half of the fiscal is generally a stronger period for the company on account of the festive & wedding season. However, the revenue growth in Q3FY17 remained subdued on account of demonetisation. Going forward, we expect revenue growth to revive from FY18E onwards on account of improved product mix and company following dual strategy of driving SSSG and opening new stores in untapped locations. We expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 8.1% YoY during FY16-19E. Exhibit 1: Revenue trend crore 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,092 1,258 1,543 1,842 2,065 2,694 2,418 2,462 2,754 3, CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E ; FY15 is for 15 months ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 3

4 Focus on expansion through franchisee route During FY16, the company opened 26 new stores. Over the last three or four years, the company has clearly focused on closing down stores of ~1,000 sq ft and been adding stores averaging ~3,000 sq ft. The stores added in 2016 have been larger in size and based on the global design with ample space for displaying the larger range of products. Going ahead, the company plans to add 30 new stores every year and also 30 new franchisee stores in Tier-III and Tier-IV cities across India. Bata also plans to add five destination stores each year. Such destination stores will have very large retail space located on the outskirts of cities with all amenities like ample parking space, children s play area and food court. Also, the company will continue renovating existing stores and improving layouts with the objective of increasing same store sales growth for these stores. EBITDA margins to improve on the back of higher focus on SSSG For FY17E, we expect EBITDA margins to remain under pressure on account of a stagnant revenue growth and higher fixed costs such as rent expense and employee cost, resulting in negative operating leverage. However, we expect margins to stabilise in FY18E owing to a) revival in revenue growth b) investments in newly opened large format stores to start delivering better returns, c) promotional offers & discount schemes to boost online & offline sales and d) higher SSSG from existing stores. Exhibit 2: EBITDA margins to improve from FY18E onwards ( crore) (%) - CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E 5 EBITDA EBITDA Margin ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 4

5 PAT, return ratios to recover from FY18E onwards We expect PAT to decline from crore in FY16 to crore in FY17E on account of flattish revenue growth and absence of exceptional gain to the tune of 74.7 crore in FY16. Also, the company had to incur a one-time exceptional expense of Voluntary retirement scheme for the Faridabad unit, which was at 21.7 crore. However, we expect a revival in PAT from FY18E onwards. The company reported a RoE of 18.5% in FY16. However, if we exclude exceptional gain of 74.7 crore, we get an adjusted RoE of 12%. Return ratios are expected to decline in FY17E on account of a subdued operational performance. However, they are likely to pick up, going forward. We expect RoCE to increase from 16.5% in FY16 to 19.7% in FY19E with RoE increasing from 12.2 % (adjusted) in FY16 to 16.2% in FY19E. Exhibit 3: PAT margin to improve FY18E onwards Exhibit 4: and return ratios to improve FY18E onwards ( crore) CY11 CY12 CY13 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E (%) (%) CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E PAT PAT Margin RoE RoCE ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 5

6 Valuation Like the textile sector, keeping job generation as a primary agenda, a scheme is expected to be implemented for leather and footwear industry, which would incentivise the footwear sector. We believe the scheme augurs well for the footwear companies including Bata. Bata s efforts have been in the right direction with focus on SSSG, which would lead to profitable growth for the company. Bata is also doubling its advertising expenditure for FY17 for brand building purposes. We would watch the progress on recent initiatives undertaken by the company to revive the growth. Hence, we assign a HOLD recommendation on the stock with a target price of 515 (based on 27.0 FY19E EPS of 19.0). Exhibit 5: Valuations Sales Growth EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE ( cr) (%) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) FY FY17E FY18E FY19E ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 6

7 Recommendation history vs. consensus estimate ( ) Feb-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Dec Feb-17 (%) Price Idirect target Consensus Target Mean % Consensus with BUY Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Key events Date Event Jan-10 Bata achieved 10.6% revenue growth in CY09. Operating margin expanded 265 bps to 11.9% on the back of improving product mix Sep-10 Topline continued to grow at 10-15% and the company continued to witness margin expansion Jan-11 From the 10-12% topline growth, the company started to report revenue growth in excess of 20% Sep-11 In Q3CY11, the company achieved a topline growth of 26.3% YoY. The operating margin too expanded from 12.8% (Q3CY10) to 14.5% (Q3CY11) Dec-11 After a series of margin expansions over the last five to seven years, the operating margin remained flat at 15.5% for CY11 May-12 The company continued to post robust topline growth. The PAT growth was even faster considering margin expansion Apr-13 The rate of topline growth came down to low double digits and as margins remained flattish, the pace of PAT growth started to decline. PAT grew 6.8% in Q1CY13 Jul-13 Bata announced plans to open 100 stores each year thereby increasing the scope for revenue growth Jan-14 The company's growth rate slipped to higher single digits on the back of dampened consumer sentiment. Revenues grew ~9% in Q4CY13 and Q1CY14. Similarly, PAT growth slipped to the % range May-15 Announced Stock Split from FV 10 to 5 Aug-15 Ties up US Footwear Brand Caterpillar Sep-15 Bata stock split from FV 10 to 5 Top 10 Shareholders Rank Investor Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m) 1 Bata (BN) B.V. 31-Dec % Life Insurance Corporation of India 31-Dec % ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. 31-Dec % Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd. 31-Dec % Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd. 31-Dec % Fidelity International Asset Management Company (Korea) 31-Dec % Vidya Investment & Trading Co., Pvt. Ltd. 30-Sep % FIL Investment Management (Singapore) Ltd. 31-Aug % IDFC Asset Management Company Private Limited 31-Dec % Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch & Cie 30-Jun % Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Shareholding Pattern (in %) Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Promoter FII DII Others Recent Activity BUY SELL Investor Name Value Shares Investor Name Value Shares ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd Axis Asset Management Company Limited Life Insurance Corporation of India Baroda Pioneer Asset Management Company Limited Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd UTI Asset Management Co. Ltd Fidelity International Asset Management Company (Korea) BNP Paribas Asset Management India Pvt. Ltd IDFC Asset Management Company Private Limited Mellon Capital Management Corporation Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 7

8 Financial summary ES Profit and loss statement Crore (Year-end March) FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Total operating Income 2, , , ,057.2 Growth (%) Raw Material Expenses 1, , , ,459.6 Employee Expenses Manufacturing Expenses Selling & Distribution Expenses Admin & Other Expenses Total Operating Expenditure 2, , , ,685.6 EBITDA Growth (%) Depreciation Interest Other Income Exceptional Item PBT Growth (%) Total Tax PAT Growth (%) EPS ( ) Cash flow statement Crore (Year-end March) FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Profit before Tax Add: Depreciation (Inc)/dec in Current Assets Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions Taxes Paid Others CF from operating activities (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets Others CF from investing activities Issue/(Buy back) of Equity Inc/(dec) in loan funds Dividend paid & dividend tax Others CF from financing activities Net Cash flow Opening Cash Deposits with maturity > 3 months Closing Cash Balance sheet Crore (Year-end March) FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Liabilities Equity Capital Reserve and Surplus 1, , , ,447.6 Total Shareholders funds 1, , , ,511.9 Total Debt Deferred Tax Liability Minority Interest / Others Total Liabilities 1, , , ,511.9 Assets Gross Block ,110.2 Less: Acc Depreciation Net Block Capital WIP Total Fixed Assets Investments Inventory Debtors Loans and Advances Other Current Assets Cash Total Current Assets 1, , , ,633.5 Current Liabilities Provisions Total Current Liabilities Net Current Assets Deferred Tax Assets Application of Funds 1, , , ,511.9 Key ratios (Year-end March) FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Per share data ( ) EPS Cash EPS BV DPS Cash Per Share Operating Ratios EBITDA Margin (%) PBT Margin (%) PAT Margin (%) Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE RoIC Valuation Ratios (x) P/E EV / EBITDA EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Solvency Ratios Debt/EBITDA Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 8

9 ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Retail) CMP M Cap EPS ( ) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%) Sector / Company ( ) TP( ) Rating ( Cr) FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E Bata India (BATIND) Hold 6, Shoppers Stop (SHOSTO) Buy 2, , Titan Company (TITIND) Buy 37, RoE (%) ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 9

10 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai research@icicidirect.com ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 10

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