S IMMO. Target: Euro 6.50 (unchanged) 23 November Price (Euro) weeks range 5.03 / André Hüsemann, CREA Stefan Scharff, CREA
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1 S IMMO BUY (unchanged) Target: Euro 6.50 (unchanged) 23 November 2012 Price (Euro) weeks range 5.03 / 3.88 Key Data Country Austria Industry Real Estate Market Segment Prime Market ISIN AT WKN Symbol T1L Reuters SIAG.VI Bloomberg SPI:AV Internet Reporting Standard IFRS Fiscal Year 31/12 Founded 1986 IPO 1987 Market Cap (EUR million) Number of shares (million) 68.1 Free Float (approx.) 81% Free Float MarketCap (Euro million) CAGR (net profit 11-14e) -1.3% Multiples e 2013e 2014e P/S-Ratio P/E-Ratio Dividend Yield 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Key Data per Share (Euro) e 2013e 2014e Earnings per Share (EpS) Dividends per Share (DpS) Book Value per Share (BVpS) NAV per share FFO per share Financial Data (Euro '000) e 2013e 2014e Revenues 207, , , ,443 Rental income 125, , , ,718 Net revaluation result 146 5,800 2,000 3,000 Operating cash profit (EBITDA) 101,406 95,314 91,023 92,373 Operating Profit (EBIT) 92,286 91,920 84,287 86,516 Pre-tax profit (EBT) 29,643 24,746 21,566 25,287 Net profit after minorities 20,034 19,591 16,714 19,235 Shareholders' Equity 474, , , ,561 RoE after tax 4.2% 4.0% 3.3% 3.7% Financial Calendar Preliminaries 2012 Annual report Q 2013 AGM 2Q Q 2013 Main Shareholders Vienna Insurance Group 10% Erste Bank Group 10% Analysts Internet March 26, 2013 April 25, 2013 May 23, 2013 June 12, 2013 August 27, 2013 November 21, 2013 André Hüsemann, CREA Stefan Scharff, CREA Fon: +49-(0) and -80 scharff@src-research.de andre.huesemann@src-research.de Sound numbers, management continues its strategy to step up earnings power Yesterday, S IMMO posted its 9M 2012 numbers which were very convincing. Despite predominant disposal activities of the recent quarters, rental income decreased only slightly by 2.5% to Euro 89.5m (9M 2012: 91.8m). The gross margin in the property segment was pleasant at 56.9% (55.6%). General KPIs also develop according to plan. At present, occupancy is at a satisfying 93.2% (91.8%), LTV improved significantly to 54% (58%) and EPRA NAV increased to 9.02 Euro per share (9M 2011: 8.64 Euro). However, due to opportunistic sales of properties above their book value in Austria and Germany, number of objects within the portfolio clearly decreased from 239 in the last year to 218 by now, while portfolio value dropped from Euro 1,988m to Euro 1,856m. By end of 9M 2012, sales volume of disposals amounted to Euro 130m, compared to their book value of Euro 120m, translating into an average upside on book value of 8%. By now, there are no further properties held for disposal on the company s balance sheet. In addition, the management claimed in the conference call only a low likelihood for further disposals this year, but more to come next year. The guidance remains to dispose 5% of the portfolio value per year. In fact, as long as the financial crisis lasts and interest costs remain low we assume the present price level for commercial and residential real estate to increase further or at least stay on the current level, which is indeed an advantageous environment for property sellers in Germany and Austria. The average cost of funding for S IMMO is also low at 4.57% (4.80%) and results in lower interest expenses. Property revaluation accounted for Euro 5.5m (Euro 4.3m), confirming the positive trend of the past quarters. We assume in particular Austria and Germany to contribute positive results, while CEE and also SEE seem to be stable for S IMMO. However, when four new shopping malls open in the next months in Sofia, the local market for retail and office could experience a severe pressure on rents and revaluation there. The hotel segment at S IMMO also runs according to plan and generated a pleasant GOP of Euro 6.2m (Euro 6.9m). All in all, the company reported an excellent bottom line result after minorities and tax of Euro 19.3m (Euro 16.6m). The high FFO-yield of 10.2% and the share price discount of 47% to the EPRA NAV justify a higher valuation than the current share price, particularly when compared to peers. Therefore we maintain our Buy-rating and our target price of 6.50 Euros.
2 Industry: Real Estate Management Board: Sub segment: mixed Ernst Vejdovszky Country: Austria Friedrich Wachernig, MBA Headquarter: Vienna Holger Schmidtmayr, MRICS Foundation: 1986 Employees (without Hotels): 89 Supervisory Board: Dr. Martin Simhandl (Chairman) Dr. Gerald Antonitsch Franz Kerber Christian Hager Erwin Hammerbacher IR Contact Michael Matlin, MBA Dr. Wilhelm Rasinger Dr. Sylwia Milke Dr. Ralf Zeitlberger S IMMO is a Vienna based real estate holding company founded Since 1987 the company is listed on the Vienna stock exchange and therefore Austria s longest standing property investment company. First acquisitions and activities started in Austria. Expansion activities to foreign countries were started close to the millenium. Within recent years the company acquired, according to its Buy and Hold strategy, a real estate portfolio that comprises more than 200 properties, a lettable space of some 1,300k sqm amounting to a value of Euro 1.9bn in In average, investments have a volume of a lower double digit million. The portfolio contains a widely diversified range of residential, office, business and hotel properties selected for sustainable value. S IMMO aims on a long investment horizon and majority participations. In terms of portfolio value a large share of approx. 26% is located in Germany. Austria accounts for almost 33% while SEE stands for 21% and CEE for 20% of total portfolio value (2012). Looking at the tenant structure it is very granulated in terms of rental income. The Top 20 tenants stand only for 25% of rental income (excluding hotels with management contracts). Of these 86% have a lease term structure of more than 5 years. Half of them even more than 10 years. Furthermore the company has development activities in Austria and CEE/SEE region which are on account of the economical situation on hold at present. The lion s share of the company s historically development activity was done here. Hence, a significant share of already finished properties, held within the CEE/ SEE portfolio, results from own development. The occupancy rate of the total portfolio is at 93% providing a stable rental income while the gross rental yield is at 6.9% for the total portfolio (3Q 2012). The core shareholders are Erste Bank Group (10% of shares) and Vienna Insurance Group (10%). Erste Bank is an Austrian retail bank founded 1819 with a client base of some 17m customers. Vienna Insurance Group is an Austrian insurance company, located in Vienna and since September 2008 among shareholders. Hence, S IMMO has two of the largest financial service providers of Austria and CEE as core shareholder which is definetely a source of long term strength for the company and its future development. Furthermore we assume an easier access in terms of financing. Source: Company Data, SRC Research 2 2 SRC Equity Research
3 SWOT Analysis Strengths The firm has a well diversified portfolio with a total of approx. 218 properties and a rental space of ~ 1,300k sqm amounting to a value of Euro 1.9bn. The properties are located across eight countries. A focus is on Germany and Austria (60% of portfolio) while the other countries are located in CEE and SEE (20% each), thus geographical diversification is high. Furthermore the portfolio is well diversified in terms of its type of use. Residential (22%), office (39%), retail (26%) and hotels (14%) are covered, thus all major types are under one roof. In addition, all shares of each sector are quite balanced. However we assume that this kind of portfolio will attract more the general equity investors than specialized investors that might be more focused on Pure-Plays. The present share price level offers a huge discount of some 50% to the EPRA NAV of Euro 9.02 after 3Q 12 (year-end 2011: Euro 8.70), even after the record year The occupancy rate slightly improved again to a very comfortable 93.2% providing a stable rental income (yield 6.9%) while the LTV of reduced to 54% and is supposed to reduce to 50% in mid-term. Two of the largest financial services firms in Austria, Erste Bank and Vienna Insurance, are the largest shareholders accounting for 10% each of the shares. Both shareholders have a positive effect on the business Granulated tenant structure. The top 25 tenants count only for 40% of yearly rental income. Furthermore the majority of rental contracts are long-term. Both shopping centers Sun and Serdika in Bulgaria and Romania are now fully let (the shopping space) Weaknesses Although S IMMO is present on the stock market since 1987 the awareness for the success story at the equity markets is still not too high in our view as the market cap is split between the S IMMO share and the two participation certificates. There are participation certificates in the financing structure with a hybrid character between equity and liability. This form of financing is unusual to many international investors. Thus we liked the plan of S IMMO to tender these papers into normal equity stock shares until year-end 2011 in three steps. Unfortunately there was no 75% majority for this proposal on the AGM. Now S IMMO aims to buy back a larger share of participating certificates. It is intended to buy back a share of 15% of circulating participating certificates. Opportunities The repurchasing program of participating certificates lowers the share of payments to certificate holders and offers the opportunity to pay out a dividend. First dividend payment of Euro 0.10 was on 15 June. S IMMO realized a huge premium on their disposals of some 5% to 10% in In contrast to that the stock trades with a discount of approx. 50% to its EPRA NAV. Threats Austria lost its S&P AAA rating mainly due to its high engagement in CEE and SEE. Due to higher restrictions for credits in those regions, higher refinancing costs and higher equity requirements and stricter covenants are very likely to occur. S IMMO faced unpaid rents at Sun Plaza and Serdika Center comprising a volume of approx. Euro 8m in For 2012 we expect an improvement here. As being active in eight countries the firm might face non-cash P & L losses due to an unfavorable development of currencies. In particular a weak Euro against Hungarian Forint and Czech Crown caused non-cash foreign exchange losses in 1H 12 of -1.8m. 3 3 SRC Equity Research
4 P&L Account for 31/12 IFRS (Euro '000) e 2013e 2014e CAGR '11 - '14e Revenues 125, , , , , , , % thereof rental income 85,737 87, , , , , ,718 thereof revenues from service charges 23,474 29,105 32,640 41,257 37,208 34,426 34,943 thereof revenues from hotel operations 16,471 36,897 38,311 40,612 39,840 40,378 40,782 Other operating income 2,587 8,246 4,973 7,737 7,969 8,049 7, % Expenses directly attributable to properties -45,207-61,192-70,095-76,982-65,882-59,510-60,650 Gross margin property segment 58.6% 47.5% 48.7% 54.0% 56.6% 59.1% 58.9% Hotel operating expenses -12,575-29,701-29,617-31,576-31,673-31,899-32,218 Gross operating profit hotels (GOP) 3,896 7,196 8,694 9,036 8,167 8,479 8,564 Gross margin within hotel segment 23.7% 19.5% 22.7% 22.2% 20.5% 21.0% 21.0% Revenues less directly attributable expenses 70,487 70,908 80, , , , ,658 Total Gross margin 56.1% 46.2% 45.8% 51.5% 53.2% 55.1% 54.5% Net operating income (NOI) 67,900 62,662 75,231 99,254 93,980 94,448 95,575 NOI-margin 54.0% 40.8% 43.0% 47.8% 49.1% 50.8% 50.7% Net Gains on property disposal 8,318 1,900 9,879 11,584 9,658 5,145 6, % Management expenses -19,594-19,533-18,650-17,169-16,293-16,619-16,785 thereof personnel expenses n.s. -4,517-5,726-6,581-6,191-6,315-6,378 EBITDA 59,211 53,275 71, ,406 95,314 91,023 92, % EBITDA-margin 47.1% 34.7% 40.8% 48.8% 49.8% 49.0% 49.0% Depreciation -4,737-9,113-10,054-9,266-9,194-8,735-8,857 Property Revaluation -30,682-97, ,800 2,000 3,000 Operating profit (EBIT) 23,792-53,076 60,546 92,286 91,920 84,287 86,516 EBIT-margin 18.9% -34.6% 34.6% 44.4% 48.0% 45.4% 45.9% EBIT-profit without revaluation result 54,474 44,162 61,379 92,140 86,120 82,287 83, % Net financial result -9,552-35,541-41,201-51,458-55,500-53,450-52,145 Participating certificates expenses (hybrid capital) -6,442 11,161-10,222-11,185-11,674-9,272-9,084 Earnings before tax (EBT) 7,798-77,456 9,123 29,643 24,746 21,566 25,287 EBT margin 6.2% -50.4% 5.2% 14.3% 12.9% 11.6% 13.4% Income tax expense -2,072-1,412-6,989-8,398-3,836-3,472-4,552 Tax rate 27% n.m. 77% 28% 16% 16% 18% Net profit 5,726-78,868 2,134 21,245 20,911 18,094 20,735 Minorities ,211-1,320-1,380-1,500 Net profit after minorities 5,813-78,559 1,843 20,034 19,591 16,714 19, % Return on sales 4.6% -51.2% 1.1% 9.6% 10.2% 9.0% 10.2% Number of shares (in million) Earnings per Share (EpS) in Euro Dividends per Share (DpS) in Euro Book Value per Share (BVpS) in Euro Total assets 2,144,585 2,235,196 2,256,163 2,175,378 2,086,333 2,002,880 2,022, % Shareholders' equity (without minorities) 576, , , , , , ,561 Shareholders' equity incl. participating certificates 889, , , , , , ,561 Equity ratio without minorities with hybrid capital 41% 35% 34% 34% 38% 38% 38% Return on Equity (RoE) 1.0% -14.9% 0.4% 4.2% 4.0% 3.3% 3.7% Key ratios & figures e 2013e 2014e Growth rates in % Revenues 31.1% 22.2% 13.9% 18.8% -7.8% -3.0% 1.4% EBITDA n.s % 34.1% 42.0% -6.0% -4.5% 1.5% EBIT n.s % % 52.4% -0.4% -8.3% 2.6% EBT n.s % % 224.9% -16.5% -12.9% 17.3% Net profit after minorities n.s % % 895.5% -1.6% -13.5% 14.6% Margins in % EBITDA 47.1% 34.7% 40.8% 48.8% 49.8% 49.0% 49.0% EBIT 18.9% -34.6% 34.6% 44.4% 48.0% 45.4% 45.9% EBT 6.2% -50.4% 5.2% 14.3% 12.9% 11.6% 13.4% Expense ratios in % Depreciation to sales -3.8% -5.9% -5.7% -4.5% -4.8% -4.7% -4.7% Tax rate 26.6% n.m. 76.6% 28.3% 15.5% 16.1% 18.0% Profitability in % Profit margin 4.6% -51.4% 1.2% 10.2% 10.9% 9.7% 11.0% Return on equity (RoE) after tax 1.0% -14.9% 0.4% 4.2% 4.0% 3.3% 3.7% Return on Assets (RoA) 2.0% -2.1% 1.8% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 1.0% Return on Investment (RoI) 0.3% -3.5% 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% Valuation P/E-ratio P/E-ratio (historical share price by year-end) P/S-ratio Price/BVpS (PBV) Dividend yield in % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Data per share Share price by year end Number of shares in m EpS DpS BVpS FFO per share SRC Equity Research
5 SRC Research - The Specialist for Financial and Real Estate Stocks - SRC - Scharff Research und Consulting GmbH Klingerstrasse 23 D Frankfurt Germany Fon: +49 (0)69 / Mail: andre.huesemann@src-research.de Internet: Rating Chronicle Date Rating Former Price Former Target S IMMO 29 October 2012 Buy S IMMO 23 August 2012 Buy S IMMO 25 May 2012 Buy S IMMO 23 March 2012 Buy S IMMO 31 January 2012 Buy Please note: share price mentioned in this report is the closing price of 22 November mandated SRC Research for mentoring the S IMMO share. Disclaimer 2012: This equity research report is published by: SRC-Scharff Research und Consulting GmbH, Klingerstr. 23, D Frankfurt, Germany (short name: SRC Research). All rights reserved. Although we feel sure that all information in this SRC report stem from carefully selected sources with a high credibility, we cannot give any guarantee for accuracy, trueness and completeness. All opinions quoted in this report give the current judgement of the author that not necessarily is the same opinion as SRC-Scharff Research und Consulting GmbH or another staff member. All in this report made opinions and judgements might be changed without a pre-announcement. Within the scope of German regulative framework author and SRC- Scharff Research und Consulting GmbH do not assume any liability for using this document or its content. This report is just for information purposes and not a request or an invitation or a recommendation to buy or sell any stock that is mentioned here. Private clients should search for personal advice at their bank or investment house and should keep in mind that prices and dividends of equities might rise and fall and that nobody can give a guarantee of the future development of equities. The author of this report and the SRC-Scharff Research und Consulting GmbH commit themselfes on a unsolicited basis to have no long- or short-positions in equities or derivatives related to equities mentioned in this report. Reproduction, distribution and publishing of this report and its content as a whole or in parts is only allowed with an approval of SRC management board in written form. With acceptance of this document you agree with all regulations mentioned here and all general terms and conditions you will find at anytime at our website SRC Equity Research
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