ISRA VISION Germany - High-tech Engineering

Transcription

1 Germany - High-tech Engineering Buy (old: Buy) 31-August-16 Price target: EUR (old: EUR 77.00) Price: EUR Next result: Q4 15/16 tba Henning Breiter Bloomberg: ISR GR Market cap: EUR m henning.breiter@ha-research.de Reuters: ISRG.DE Enterprise Value: EUR m Tel.: Strong Q3 results, FCF looks outstanding; est & PT up ISRA released strong Q3 results positively also reflecting a strong FCF improvement. Even more, management lifted its guidance to sales growth of more than 10% yoy (old: double digit) and a margin increase (old: at least stable margins). Q3 sales of 31.0m (+12% yoy) and EBIT of 6.0m (+17% yoy) are slightly ahead of expectations ( 30.7m and 5.8m respectively): Q3 sales in Industrial Automation were almost unchanged yoy at 7.4m digesting a very strong H1 (+23% yoy). Still, the underlying trend is very positive as ISRA said it received solid orders in the aftermath of the AUTOMATICA trade fair, particularly from the automotive sector. In contrast, Surface Vision picked up strongly and grew by 17% yoy to 23.6m in Q3. Here, ISRA currently experiences strong demand in its verticals Print (following the Drupa fair) and Plastics. Moreover, ISRA s push into the Display inspection business by adding new products appears to bear fruit. Obviously, ISRA s measures to optimize the production processes are gaining traction and added to the economies of scale which explains the disproportionate EBIT growth and the outstanding Q3 EBIT margin of 19.3%. Moreover, POC receivables are substantially down (minus 10m yoy to 45m) despite the dynamic sales growth which further underscores ISRA s success in optimizing production. Therefore, FCF appears to be outstanding and almost quadrupled to c. 12m after 9m 2015/16 according to our calculation (please note that not the entire CF statement is available yet). Apart from specifying the guidance for the current FY, management already said that it expects to continue growing at double digit rates also in FY 2016/17E. In our view, the excellent order backlog of 85m (up by 21% yoy) at the end of Q3 already provides solid visibility well into the next FY backing up managements upbeat outlook. Action: In the context of the strong 9m development and the unbroken automation trend we increase our estimates for sales, EBIT and FCF (by c. 10% on avg). More importantly, we consider valuing ISRA on a DCF model more appropriate given the resilient dynamic growth which the company even shows in the currently rocky economic environment. As a result, we derive a new PT of 95 (old: 77) which is inline with the fair value based on FCFY 2018/19E. Buy. Y/E 30.9 (EUR m) 2011/ / / / /16E 2016/17E 2017/18E growth 12 % 7 % 14 % 10 % 11 % 10 % 9% EBITDA EBIT Net income Net debt Net gearing 29.6 % 26.5 % 22.5 % 24.4 % 17.7 % 10.6 % 3.0 % Net Debt/EBITDA EPS pro forma CPS DPS Dividend yield 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.7 % Gross profit margin 53.9 % 54.5 % 55.2 % 55.8 % 55.5 % 55.5 % 55.5 % EBITDA margin 28.9 % 29.2 % 28.1 % 28.8 % 29.2 % 29.5 % 29.6 % EBIT margin 18.5 % 19.3 % 19.5 % 20.1 % 20.5 % 20.7 % 20.9 % ROCE 10.8 % 11.0 % 11.8 % 12.0 % 12.7 % 13.5 % 14.4 % EV/sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT PER Adjusted FCF yield 3.8 % 4.0 % 4.6 % 5.2 % 6.0 % 6.8 % 7.7 % Close price as of: High/low 52 weeks: / Price/Book Ratio: 2.3 Relative performance (SDAX): 3 months 23.1 % 6 months 15.2 % 12 months 47.1 % Changes in estimates Key share data: EBIT EPS % 2.3% 2.0% % 3.0% 3.3% % 2.5% 3.0% Number of shares: (in m pcs) 4.4 Authorised capital: (in m) 2.2 Book value per share: (in ) 35.8 Ø trading volume: (12 months) 2,800 Major shareholders: Free Float 70.1 % Enis Ersü (CEO) 25.2 % FMR 10.0 % Vision GbR 4.8 % Argos Investment 4.0 % Company description: Machine vision systems for automated surface inspection and industrial automation.

2 Q3 2015/16 Q3 2015/16 Q3 2014/15 yoy Q2 2015/16 qoq 9M 2015/16 9M 2014/15 yoy est % % % Industrial Automation % % % Surface Vision % % % EBIT % % %!"#$%&'()*+ DCF (EUR m) (except per share data and beta) 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E NOPAT Depreciation Increase/decrease in working capital Increase/decrease in long-term provisions and accruals Capex Acquisitions Capital increase Cash flow Present value WACC 6.8% 6.9% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% DCF per share derived from DCF avg. growth and earnings assumptions Terminal value Total present value 456 Short term growth ( ) 10.2% ")(",-, 80% Medium term growth ( ) 8.7% Net debt (net cash) at start of year 35 Long term growth (2018-infinity) 3.0% Financial assets 1 Terminal year EBIT margin 18.0% Pension provisions and off balance sheet debt 3 Equity value 419 WACC derived from No. of shares outstanding 4.4 Cost of borrowings before taxes 6.0% Discounted cash flow per share 95.6 Tax rate 31.0% upside/(downside) 18% Cost of borrowings after taxes 4.1% Required return on invested capital 7.0% Risk premium 5.5% Risk-free rate 1.5% Share price Beta 1.0 Sensitivity analysis DCF WACC Sensitivity analysis DCF Long term growth EBIT margin terminal year % 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% % 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0% 9.0% % % % % % WACC 6.0% % % % Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA

3 Financials Profit and loss (EUR m) 2011/ / / / /16E 2016/17E 2017/18E ,+.") / / 0 1 Cost of sales Gross profit and marketing General and administration Research and development Other operating income Other operating expenses Unusual or infrequent items EBITDA Depreciation EBITA Amortisation of goodwill Amortisation of intangible assets Impairment charges EBIT Interest income Interest expenses Other financial result Financial result Recurring pretax income from continuing operations Extraordinary income/loss Earnings before taxes Taxes Net income from continuing operations Result from discontinued operations (net of tax) Net income Minority interest Net income (net of minority interest) Average number of shares EPS reported Profit and loss (common size) 2011/ / / / /16E 2016/17E 2017/18E % % % % % % % Cost of sales 46.1 % 45.5 % 44.8 % 44.2 % 44.5 % 44.5 % 44.5 % Gross profit 53.9 % 54.5 % 55.2 % 55.8 % 55.5 % 55.5 % 55.5 % and marketing 18.5 % 18.8 % 19.1 % 18.9 % 18.8 % 18.8 % 18.7 % General and administration 5.5 % 5.2 % 4.7 % 4.1 % 4.5 % 4.4 % 4.4 % Research and development 13.3 % 13.3 % 13.2 % 13.5 % 13.1 % 12.9 % 12.7 % Other operating income 1.8 % 2.2 % 1.4 % 0.8 % 1.4 % 1.3 % 1.2 % Other operating expenses 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Unusual or infrequent items 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % EBITDA 28.9 % 29.2 % 28.1 % 28.8 % 29.2 % 29.5 % 29.6 % Depreciation 0.8 % 1.1 % 0.8 % 0.5 % 0.7 % 1.0 % 1.0 % EBITA 28.1 % 28.1 % 27.3 % 28.3 % 28.5 % 28.5 % 28.6 % Amortisation of goodwill 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Amortisation of intangible assets 9.6 % 8.8 % 7.8 % 8.2 % 8.0 % 7.8 % 7.7 % Impairment charges 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % EBIT 18.5 % 19.3 % 19.5 % 20.1 % 20.5 % 20.7 % 20.9 % Interest income 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Interest expenses 0.9 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 0.7 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 0.9 % Other financial result 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Financial result -0.7 % -0.9 % -0.8 % -0.6 % -0.8 % -0.7 % -0.7 % Recurring pretax income from continuing operations 17.8 % 18.5 % 18.7 % 19.5 % 19.7 % 20.0 % 20.2 % Extraordinary income/loss 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Earnings before taxes 17.8 % 18.5 % 18.7 % 19.5 % 19.7 % 20.0 % 20.2 % Tax rate 28.2 % 30.7 % 31.4 % 32.3 % 31.0 % 31.0 % 31.0 % Net income from continuing operations 12.7 % 12.8 % 12.8 % 13.2 % 13.6 % 13.8 % 14.0 % Result from discontinued operations (net of tax) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Net income 12.7 % 12.8 % 12.8 % 13.2 % 13.6 % 13.8 % 14.0 % Minority interest 0.0 % -0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Net income (net of minority interest) 12.7 % 12.9 % 12.7 % 13.2 % 13.6 % 13.8 % 14.0 % 3 Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA

4 Balance sheet (EUR m) 2011/ / / / /16E 2016/17E 2017/18E Intangible assets Property, plant and equipment Financial assets FIXED ASSETS Inventories Accounts receivable Other current assets Liquid assets Deferred taxes Deferred charges and prepaid expenses CURRENT ASSETS TOTAL ASSETS SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY MINORITY INTEREST Long-term debt Provisions for pensions and similar obligations Other provisions Non-current liabilities short-term liabilities to banks Accounts payable Advance payments received on orders Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) Deferred taxes Deferred income Current liabilities TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY Balance sheet (common size) 2011/ / / / /16E 2016/17E 2017/18E Intangible assets 44.9 % 44.8 % 44.1 % 41.2 % 41.7 % 40.1 % 39.4 % Property, plant and equipment 2.3 % 2.7 % 2.6 % 2.4 % 2.7 % 2.6 % 2.4 % Financial assets 0.7 % 0.6 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % FIXED ASSETS 48.0 % 48.1 % 47.3 % 44.1 % 44.8 % 43.1 % 42.2 % Inventories 13.0 % 12.5 % 12.6 % 12.0 % 12.5 % 12.5 % 13.1 % Accounts receivable 31.1 % 30.5 % 31.6 % 33.9 % 33.9 % 32.8 % 32.8 % Other current assets 1.6 % 2.4 % 2.3 % 3.0 % 2.9 % 2.7 % 2.6 % Liquid assets 3.9 % 4.7 % 5.0 % 5.9 % 4.7 % 7.7 % 8.2 % Deferred taxes 2.4 % 1.9 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.1 % 1.1 % Deferred charges and prepaid expenses 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % CURRENT ASSETS 52.0 % 51.9 % 52.7 % 55.9 % 55.2 % 56.9 % 57.8 % TOTAL ASSETS % % % % % % % SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY 55.6 % 56.2 % 57.6 % 55.9 % 59.7 % 61.2 % 66.1 % MINORITY INTEREST 0.5 % 0.7 % 0.6 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.4 % Long-term debt 8.0 % 5.6 % 3.6 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Provisions for pensions and similar obligations 1.1 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.1 % 1.0 % Other provisions 1.5 % 1.4 % 1.6 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 0.9 % Non-current liabilities 10.6 % 7.9 % 6.5 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.0 % 1.9 % short-term liabilities to banks 12.4 % 14.0 % 14.4 % 19.5 % 15.3 % 14.2 % 10.2 % Accounts payable 3.8 % 3.2 % 3.9 % 4.6 % 4.1 % 3.9 % 3.7 % Advance payments received on orders 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) 5.8 % 6.2 % 5.7 % 4.8 % 4.8 % 4.6 % 4.5 % Deferred taxes 11.3 % 11.8 % 11.3 % 12.5 % 13.4 % 13.6 % 13.0 % Deferred income 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Current liabilities 33.3 % 35.2 % 35.3 % 41.4 % 37.6 % 36.3 % 31.5 % TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY % % % % % % % 4 Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA

5 Cash flow statement (EUR m) 2011/ / / / /16E 2016/17E 2017/18E Net profit/loss Depreciation of fixed assets (incl. leases) Amortisation of goodwill Amortisation of intangible assets Others Cash flow from operations before changes in w/c Increase/decrease in inventory Increase/decrease in accounts receivable Increase/decrease in accounts payable Increase/decrease in other working capital positions Increase/decrease in working capital Cash flow from operating activities CAPEX Payments for acquisitions Financial investments Income from asset disposals Cash flow from investing activities Cash flow before financing Increase/decrease in debt position Purchase of own shares Capital measures Dividends paid Others Effects of exchange rate changes on cash Cash flow from financing activities Increase/decrease in liquid assets Liquid assets at end of period Regional split (EUR m) 2011/ / / / /16E 2016/17E 2017/18E Domestic yoy change 16.5 % % 4.1 % 9.5 % 11.2 % 10.3 % 9.3 % Rest of Europe yoy change 0.5 % 32.4 % 28.3 % 9.5 % 11.2 % 10.3 % 9.3 % NAFTA yoy change 6.9 % 4.0 % % 9.5 % 11.2 % 10.3 % 9.3 % Asia Pacific yoy change 17.3 % 12.7 % 29.0 % 9.5 % 11.2 % 10.3 % 9.3 % Rest of world yoy change n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a TTL yoy change 11.6 % 6.7 % 14.4 % 9.5 % 11.2 % 10.3 % 9.3 % 5 Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA

6 Key ratios (EUR m) 2011/ / / / /16E 2016/17E 2017/18E P&L growth analysis growth 11.6 % 6.7 % 14.4 % 9.5 % 11.2 % 10.3 % n/a EBITDA growth 13.1 % 8.1 % 10.1 % 12.3 % 12.6 % 11.4 % 22.2 % EBIT growth 9.8 % 11.6 % 15.6 % 12.7 % 13.4 % 11.4 % 22.9 % EPS growth 16.6 % 8.3 % 12.4 % 14.3 % 14.7 % 11.9 % 23.6 % Efficiency Total operating costs / sales 35.4 % 35.2 % 35.6 % 35.7 % 35.0 % 34.8 % 34.6 % per employee EBITDA per employee Balance sheet analysis Avg. working capital / sales 82.6 % 89.2 % 83.8 % 87.0 % 86.9 % 82.8 % 78.3 % Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) Trade debtors in days of sales A/P turnover [(A/P*365)/sales] Cash conversion cycle (days) Cash flow analysis Free cash flow Free cash flow/sales -0.6 % 4.8 % 5.4 % -2.0 % 9.3 % 9.9 % 9.8 % FCF / net profit -4.4 % 36.8 % 42.6 % % 68.4 % 71.7 % 70.0 % Capex / depn % % % % % % % Capex / maintenance capex 13.5 % 13.9 % 27.1 % 28.9 % 27.4 % 25.2 % 18.2 % Capex / sales 14.1 % 12.6 % 13.9 % 12.9 % 12.1 % 11.8 % 10.9 % Security Net debt Net Debt/EBITDA Net debt / equity Interest cover Dividend payout ratio 12.3 % 13.3 % 13.1 % 13.3 % 12.9 % 12.6 % 12.6 % Asset utilisation Capital employed turnover Operating assets turnover Plant turnover Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) Returns ROCE 10.8 % 11.0 % 11.8 % 12.0 % 12.7 % 13.5 % 14.4 % ROE 10.0 % 9.9 % 10.1 % 10.3 % 10.9 % 11.1 % 10.8 % Other Interest paid / avg. debt 2.1 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 1.7 % 2.8 % 3.1 % 3.9 % No. employees (average) Number of shares DPS EPS reported Valuation ratios P/BV EV/sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBITA EV/EBIT EV/FCF Adjusted FCF yield 3.8 % 4.0 % 4.6 % 5.2 % 6.0 % 6.8 % 7.7 % Dividend yield 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 6 Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA

7 Disclosures regarding research publications of Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA pursuant to section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) and the regulations of the German Financial Analysis Ordinance (FinAnV) and distributed in the UK under an EEA branch passport, subject to the FCA requirements on research recommendation disclosures It is essential that any research recommendation is fairly presented and discloses interests of indicates relevant conflicts of interest. Pursuant to section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) and section 5 of the Financial Analysis Ordinance (FinAnV) a research report has to point out possible conflicts of interest in connection with the analysed company. Further to this, under the FCA s rules on research recommendations, any conflicts of interest in connection with the recommendation must be disclosed. A conflict of interest is presumed to exist in particular if Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA (1) or its affiliate(s) (either in its own right or as part of a consortium) within the past twelve months, acquired the financial instruments of the analysed company, (2) has entered into an agreement on the production of the research report with the analysed company, (3) or its affiliate(s) has, within the past twelve months, been party to an agreement on the provision of investment banking services with the analysed company or have received services or a promise of services under the term of such an agreement, (4) or its affiliate(s) holds 5% or more of the share capital of the analysed company, or the analysed company holds 5% or more of the share capital of Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA or its affiliate(s), (5) or its affiliate(s) regularly holds a trading position in shares of the analysed company or derivatives thereof, (6) or its affiliate(s) manages the financial instruments of the analysed company on the basis of an existing contractual relationship, (7) or the analyst has any other significant financial interests relating to the analysed company such as, for example, exercising mandates in the interest of the analysed company or a significant conflict of interest with respect to the issuer, (8) The research report has been made available to the company prior to its publication. Thereafter, only factual changes have been made to the report. Conflicts of interest that existed at the time when this research report was published: Company Disclosure ISRA VISION AG 2, 5 Historical target price and rating changes for ISRA VISION AG in the last 12 months Initiation coverage 20-June-11 Hauck & Aufhäuser distribution of ratings and in proportion to investment banking services Buy % % Sell 9.92 % 0.00 % Hold % 0.00 % 7 Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA

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FCF) method and on the basis of the discounted cash flow DCF model. Furthermore, a peer group comparison is made. The adj. FCF method is based on the assumption that investors purchase assets only at a price (enterprise value) at which the operating cash flow return after taxes on this investment exceeds their opportunity costs in the form of a hurdle rate of 7.5%. The operating cash flow is calculated as EBITDA less maintenance capex and taxes. Within the framework of the DCF approach, the future free cash flows are calculated initially on the basis of a fictitious capital structure of 100% equity, i.e. interest and repayments on debt capital are not factored in initially. The adjustment towards the actual capital structure is done by discounting the calculated free cash flows with the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which takes into account both the cost of equity capital and the cost of debt. 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