Main St To Wall St: What's Trending and How Will It Impact Hotels in 2018
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1 Main St To Wall St: What's Trending and How Will It Impact Hotels in 2018 Wall Street Perspective: Initial 3Q Review and 4Q17/2018 Outlook Vince Ciepiel, CFA Important disclosures may be found in the appendix
2 What We Will Cover Cleveland Research Overview Providing a Macro Backdrop Revenue Manager Survey Results Publicly Traded Hotel Co s Results Summary Appendix
3 Who is Cleveland Research? An independent research firm headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. Founded in 2006, Cleveland Research includes: 15 research teams Across 50 key channels Publishing research on over 150 companies We pride ourselves on a disciplined research process that has us regularly and deeply engaged with the industries and companies we cover. Our partners find value from getting in front of key themes and trends that lead to faster and better strategic and financial decisions. What is happening now? Why is it happening? What happens next? 3
4 Big picture 1. GDP Good Growth for 17 & 18 seeing positive revision One of the more synchronized years globally in a while 2. Business investment ticking up, Corporate profits and Consumer Confidence strong 3. Supply likely topping out in Urban in 18 and in US in 19 Construction starts slowing (more challenging financing and costs on the rise) 4. Divergence in growth International growth accelerating: Led by Asia and Europe 5. Domestic RevPAR growth moderating Industry RevPAR up in 3Q vs. 1H up near 3% In U.S. underperforming: Top 25 (9 are negative), Urban, Luxury/Upper Up Rates seem to be the issue (demand/occupancy upside YTD again) 4
5 Domestic Revenue Manager Survey Results Feelings, Expectations, & Momentum 5
6 How does our survey look? 3Q Relative to your expectations, did portfolio RevPAR growth come in a) in line b) slightly worse c) slight better October/4Q relative to 60 days ago, how are you feeling on October/4Q RevPAR growth? a) the same b) slightly worse c) slight better 4Q How do you expect the level of 4Q RevPAR growth to compare to what you saw in 3Q? a) the same b) slightly lower c) slightly higher 2017 & 2018 Relative to 60 days ago, how are you feeling on 2017 & 2018 RevPAR growth? a) the same b) a bit worse c) a bit better
7 5 Things to Remember from our Survey Where we have been 1. 1Q Beat (Thank Trump and Easter), 2Q Miss (Misplaced Optimism) Stronger Jan (Women s March and Inauguration), in line Feb, stronger March on Easter shift June disappointing, in line May and an April that wasn t as bad as feared 2. 3Q seems to be in line with a low bar Story of holiday shift and hurricane benefit July softest month, Aug feedback better/in line, Sept a bit better than expected Early read on 3Q results looks in line with lower bar/tempered budgets provided in June Where we are headed 3. 4Q feels ok Off to a decent start October seeing Jewish holiday benefit (1H strong) and hurricane benefit linger (FL, TX) line with lower bar/tempered budgets provided in June 4. Feeling the same on 2017 Core growth unchanged in 2H vs. a prior hope for accel 17 still tracking towards mid to lower end of budget (in line with 60 days ago) 5. Trend lines into 2018 unchanged (Leisure strong, Group Ok, Corp underwhelming) 7
8 3Q Survey Results Slightly better in 3Q vs. slightly worse in 2Q ~8 of respondents were in line or slightly better than expectations, 2 missed 10 75% 5 25% 19% 25% 56% Cleveland Research, Quarterly Growth vs. Plan/Budget 6% 6% 17% 13% 78% 81% 5 33% 17% 28% 39% 33% 1 47% 41% 41% 38% 2 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 % Slightly Worse % Inline % Slightly Better July weakest, August ok, September better (vs. budget) ~4 of respondent beat in September 10 75% Growth Tracking Relative to Plan/Budget in 3Q17 16% 29% 41% 5 47% 4 25% 25% 37% 29% 3 Cleveland Research July August Sept % Slightly Worse % Inline % Slightly Better
9 4Q Outlook Survey 10 75% Feeling on Budget Today vs. 45 days ago 46% 4 38% 5 25% Cleveland Research 38% 38% 17% 19% 38% 25% Oct Outlook 4Q Outlook 2017 Outlook % Slightly Worse % Inline % Slightly Better Most feeling the same or better on October and 4Q RevPAR growth Group trends in October padding 1H on easy compares; hurricane supporting some lift
10 2017 & 2018 View More of the same 10 75% 5 25% 5% 6% 6% 11% 9% 68% 26% % 63% 83% 8 6% 9% 15% 38% 46% 38% 38% 25% 16 from 1Q 16 from 2Q 16 from 3Q 16 from 4Q 17 from 1Q 17 from 2Q 17 from 3Q Cleveland Research, Feeling on Full Yr Budget Today vs. 60 days ago % Slightly Worse % Inline % Slightly Better Feeling same or better about 2017 today vs. end of 2Q survey where revenue managers were feeling worse Most still expect to hit the midpoint of their 2017 budget (1-3%), but optimism faded after a worse 2Q than expected as some realism set in with tempered outlooks 2018 initial view points to 1-2.5% growth hard to point to catalysts for an acceleration in growth
11 Publicly Traded Company RevPAR Performance 11
12 3Q17 Results to-date and Updated Guidance Domestic Quarterly RevPAR Growth Annual Growth Quarterly Guide Annual Guide Ticker Company 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q Q17 3Q17 4Q17 17 from 4Q 17 from 1Q 17 from 2Q 17 from 3Q Loding Brand Co's HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc 6.6% % 3.7% 2.1% 2.9% 1.3% 0.9% 2.5% 0.5% -0.1% 7.3% % 1-0-1% 1-3% 1-3% 1-3% 1-1- MAR Marriott International, Inc. Class A 6.8% 5.3% 4.5% 3.8% 2.6% 2.9% % 3.1% 0.9% 0.6% 6.6% % % 1-3% 1- H Hyatt Hotels Corporation Class A % % % 2.5% % % 6.7% 5.5% 1.9% % IHG InterContinental Hotels Group PLC Spons 5.9% % % 2.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.9% % % WYN Wyndham Worldwide Corporation 1.7% % % -0.6% 1.9% 2.9% 1.7% 2.8% 2.3% LQ La Quinta Holdings, Inc % -0.3% -2.5% % 1.8% 2.8% 1.9% % CHH Choice Hotels International, Inc. 9.6% 6.7% 5.8% 4.3% % 4.5% % % 8.5% 3.7% 3.9% 2-3% % Average % 2.6% 0.8% % 2.1% 2.9% 1.3% 1.1% 6.7% 3.7% 1.6% 1.7% 0.7% % 2.1% 1.9% 1.5% Lodging REIT's Full Service: HST Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. 3.8% 4.8% 2.8% % % 2.1% 3.8% 1.8% -0.6% 5.7% 3.8% 2.5% % LHO LaSalle Hotel Properties % % 2.1% 1.7% 4.3% 2.5% % -3.6% 8.8% 2.6% 2.5% DRH DiamondRock Hospitality Company 7.9% % -2.1% 0.8% 0.8% -0.3% 1.9% % 11.6% 4.7% % -1-1% 1- RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc % -1.8% 9.1% % 8.9% -2.1% 7.6% -0.7% % 3.7% 2.9% 0-1% (3)-(1)% 0-3% 0-3% 1-3% PEB Pebblebrook Hotel Trust 3.6% 3.8% % % -0.1% % % 1.5% 3.3% 2. (3.5)-(1.5)% (4.5)-(2.5)% % -1-1% -1-1% (2)-(1)% (2)-(1)% CHSP Chesapeake Lodging Trust 9.5% % 10.1% % -0.6% -2.5% -3.7% -2.5% 9.5% 5.7% 2.3% (6.0)-(4.0)% (4.5)-(2.5)% (3.5)-(1.5)% (3.5)-(1.5)% (3.5)-(1.5)% SHO Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc % 3.9% 4.1% 1.5% 1.3% % 2.5% % 5.9% 1.3% % % % % % % % Average 6.5% 4.8% % 3.3% 2.3% 1.7% 0.3% 2.1% -0.3% -1.1% % -2. #DIV/0! 0.3% % 0.6% Select Service: HPT Hospitality Properties Trust 10.1% 10.7% 7.8% % 3.8% 0.6% % % 3.6% RLJ RLJ Lodging Trust 10.7% % 2.5% 2.1% 1.9% % -0.6% % 1.1% % -1-1% (2)-(1)% INN Summit Hotel Properties, Inc., 8.8% 7.6% 4.9% 5.7% 3.8% 6.5% 1.6% % 0.6% 10.9% 7.3% 3.3% (1) % % -1- (0.75)-(0.25)% Average 9.9% 7.8% % % % % 2.7% -0.5% % 0.8% -1. #DIV/0! Small Caps FCH FelCor Lodging Trust Incorporated 13.1% 7.3% % 2.6% -0.7% % % 8.1% 0.9% % % CLDT Chatham Lodging Trust 7.9% % 4.7% 2.6% 0.6% -2.1% -0.8% % % % -1-1% -1-1% -1-1% -1-1% % Average 10.5% 6.9% % 3.7% 1.6% % -0.8% % 0.5% -2.5% 0.8% 0.8% % Company Filings Lodging Brands and REITS RevPAR Guidance 12
13 First Glance at 3Q results HLT domestic down -0.1% in 3Q (vs. guide of 0-1%, 2Q up 0.5%); full year maintained at 1-3%, 4Q guided 1-3% IHG domestic up 0. in 3Q (2Q down 0.); no quarterly/full year outlook WYN domestic up 2.3% in 3Q (2Q up 2.8%); no quarterly/full year outlook LHO down 3.6% in 3Q (2Q down 1.6%) ; no quarterly/full year outlook PEB down 3.1% in 3Q (vs. guide of (4.5)-(2.5%), 2Q at -2.); full year maintained at (2)-(1)%, 4Q guided (-0.5)-1.5% DRH up 2.1% in 3Q (2Q up ); full year maintained at 1- SHO up 2. in 3Q (guide of %, 2Q up 2.5%); full year outlook raised 25bps at the midpoint to %; 4Q guided % INN up 0.6% in 3Q (guide of -2.0-, 2Q down -3.5%); full year maintained at the midpoint but narrowed to (0.75) (0.25%) (prior ), 4Q guided up 0- CLDT up 1. in 3Q, beat mid of guide by 100bps (guide -1 1%, 2Q down -0.5%); full year outlook raised 55bps at the midpoint to 0.3%-0.8%, 4Q guided -1-1%
14 5 Things To Remember From Publicly Traded Group Results 1. 1Q Review Beat and accel in 1Q, up 100bps Q/Q and 100bps better than guide 2. 2Q Results Miss and step down in 2Q, down 200bps Q/Q and 50bps worse than guidance 3. 3Q results looks generally in line Guided flat to slightly down vs. 2Q and vs. STLY 4. 4Q Outlook Still expect a pick-up 150bps Using the 3Q guide and the mid of the full year 17, the average hotel co is guiding a 150bps pick up in 4Q to 1% following the expected down 0.5% in 3Q. May prove to be aggressive & 2018 Outlook More of the same Maintaining/narrowing 17 (which was reduced to slightly positive on 2Q releases) The avg hotel co now expects 0.5% for 2017 (which was closer to 1% as of the 2Q releases)
15 Quarterly RevPAR growth Brand s & REIT s Hotel Co's Quarterly RevPAR Growth 1.3% 1. - Company Filings -0.3% -1.3% -1.5% Brand Co's Full Service REIT's Select Service REIT's 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 3Q likely down slightly yr/yr, (Q/Q decel of ~50bps). This follows a 2Q which was flat yr/yr (Q/Q decel of 200bps) Brands likely moderate 30bps to 1% following a much larger decel in 2Q Full Service likely moderate 100bps to down 1.3% following a similar decel in 2Q What does this chart look like 1 year from now? 15
16 Quarterly RevPAR growth Brands 6% Brand Co's Worldwide RevPAR Growth 5% 3% 1% 0.5% % 0.6% 0.5% % 2.3% 1.9% % -0.1% % HLT MAR H IHG WYN LQ CHH Company Filings 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Brands likely moderate 30-50bps Q/Q following a 150bps moderation seen in 2 HLT domestic RevPAR stepped down 60bps to slightly negative WYN stepped down 50bps to up 2.3% IHG stepped up 80bps to up 0. MAR, H, LQ and CHH consensus points to better strength in lower tiers (Mid/Econ, Hurricane)
17 Quarterly RevPAR growth Full Service REITs Full Service Lodging REIT's RevPAR Growth 9% 7% 5% 3% 1.8% 2.1% % 2. 1% -1% -3% -5% Company Filings -0.6% -0.7% -1.6% % -3.6% -3.1% -3.7% HST LHO DRH RHP PEB CHSP SHO 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Full Service REITs likely moderate 100bps Q/Q again in 3Q to down a 1%+ DRH stepped up 10bps Q/Q to up 2.1% following up in 2Q LHO stepped down 200bps Q/Q to down ~3.6% following down 1.6% in 2Q PEB stepped down 70bps Q/Q to down ~3.1% following down ~2. in 2Q SHO stepped down 50bps Q/Q to up 2. following 2Q up 2.5% HST, RHP, CHSP consensus shows a larger moderation
18 Annual RevPAR growth Following negative revisions in 2Q, the 3Q releases likely show not much change in 17 outlook 1.8% 1.8% 2.1% 2. Hotel Co's Annual RevPAR Guide % 1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% % 2017 outlooks generally call modest deceleration vs (slight step up from the Brands on Intl, step down for REITs) 2018 outlooks call for similar growth -1% -0.6% Brand Co's Full Service REIT's Select Service REIT's 16 from 3Q Company Filings, Cleveland 17 from 4Q 17 from 1Q 17 from 2Q Hotel Co's Annual RevPAR Growth 1 8.3% 8.9% 8% 6.7% 6.8% 6% % 1.6% % 0.3% % Brand Co's Full Service REIT's Select Service REIT's Company Filings, Cleveland G
19 Specific Hotel Co s in Focus 19
20 Co s in Focus HLT More realism setting in 3Q down 60bps Q/Q to (0.1)% a miss vs. guidance; 4Q expected to step up bps Q/Q 3Q a miss vs. prior view for 3Q to be positive and clearly positive when cleansed for holidays Hurricanes were 40bps tailwind which helped offset 70bps headwind from holiday October (4 of the quarter) looking slightly ahead of expectations 2018 guided up 1-3% (vs domestic which looks on track for~1. and 2016 of 1.8%) why accel? Economic indicators point to a macro environment slightly better than this year, with growth in U.S. GDP and nonresidential fixed investment forecasted to increase year over year. In the roughly 3 of our business where we have decent sightlines, we see 2018 Group position ahead of this year and we expect corporate negotiated rate increases between and 3%. LHO Plenty to be unexcited about 3Q down 200bps Q/Q to (3.6)%; no annual or quarterly guidance, but commentary points to 4Q pacing down Group pacing up 6% for 4Q and 1.5% for 2018 (ex SF included is up 8%) 4Q pace implies 2017 down 0.5% following 2016 up 2.5% STR YTD up 2.5% (supply up 1.8%, demand up 2.5%), but urban and upper upscale are only up 1% (supply up 3%P We suspect the single biggest driver of this divergence in operating performance is supply growth.
21 Co s in Focus PEB Disruption in SF, difficult convention compares, Jewish holidays...maintain FY outlook PEB 3Q down 60bps Q/Q to (3.1%) vs. guide (4.5)-(2.5%),; guiding 4Q up 450bps Q/Q at mid guide (-0.5)-1.5% 2017 at (2)-(1)% vs. the 2. in The updated 4Q guide of 0.5% is shy of prior implied which was up closer to portfolio decreased 2.3% in July, 1.6% in August, and 5.5% in September. Group Revenue down 3% for 2018 (room nights down 8%, rate up near 6%) Industry demand was better than supply growth in Q3, primarily due to a better than expected September, which was likely a result of the benefits in Houston and Texas following the hurricane. In fact, Houston s robust growth following Hurricane Harvey added over 60 basis points to the industry s 3.3% demand growth for September. And leisure travel remained healthy in the quarter. Transient outperformed group overall for the industry in the third quarter and has outperformed for the whole year so far.
22 Appendix Disclosures: I, Vince Ciepiel, certify that the views expressed in the research report(s) accurately reflect our personal views about the subject security(s). Further, we certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in the research report(s). The analysts responsible for the preparation of this report have no ownership stake in this company. Cleveland Research Company provides no investment banking services of any type on this or any company. Proprietary research and Information contained herein which forms the basis for findings or opinions expressed by Cleveland Research Company may be used by Cleveland Research for other purposes in the course of compensated consulting and other services rendered to third parties. The information transmitted is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this in error, please contact the sender and delete the material from any compute. Member FINRA/SIPC. 22
23 Questions 23
24 North America 7% 6% 5% 3% 1% -1% - 6.5% HLT U.S. RevPAR Growth % 3.8% 1.8% 2.9% 1.5% 0.8% 2.5% 0.5% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Company Filings Rate Occupancy RevPAR 8% 7% 6% 5% 3% 1% -1% 6.9% MAR N. America RevPAR Growth % 3.1% 0.9% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Company Filings Rate Occupancy RevPAR 1 8% 6% H Americas Full Serv. RevPAR Growth 8.3% 7.3% 5.3% % % % 1.6% 1 1 8% 6% H Americas Limited Serv. RevPAR Growth 10.1% % 6.9% 4.6% 3.9% % - 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Rate Occupancy RevPAR Company Filings - Company Filings 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Rate Occupancy RevPAR 24
25 Asia Pac 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% 10.1% HLT Asia Pac RevPAR Growth 6.7% 7.1% 3.6% 0.6% 1.5% 5.5% 6.9% -1% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Company Filings Rate Occupancy RevPAR 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 3% 1% -1% % MAR Asia Pac RevPAR Growth 4.9% 4.7% % % 4.9% 6.8% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Company Filings Rate Occupancy RevPAR 1 H Asia Pac RevPAR Growth 8% 6% 5.8% % 2.1% 1.9% % 3.6% Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Company Filings Rate Occupancy RevPAR 25
26 Europe 1 HLT Europe RevPAR Growth 8.8% 8. 1 MAR Europe RevPAR Growth 9.3% 8% 6% 5.5% 4.6% % 1.3% (0.7%) % 8% 6% % 4.1% 2.7% % 1.7% Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Company Filings Rate Occupancy RevPAR - 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Company Filings Rate Occupancy RevPAR H EAME/SWA RevPAR Growth 8% 6. 6% 5.1% 3.1% 1. (0.) - (4.) (3.) - (5.9%) -6% (7.8%) -8% (9.9%) Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Company Filings Rate Occupancy RevPAR 26
27 Africa/Mid East 25% 2 15% 1 5% 2.5% HLT Mid E./Afr RevPAR Growth % 8.1% 9.6% -5% (2.6%) (4.7%) (5.7%) -1 (2.1%) (8.8%) -15% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Company Filings Rate Occupancy RevPAR 1 1 8% 6% 9.3% 3.9% MAR Mid E./Afr RevPAR Growth 0.8% (2.3%) 4.5% 2. - (1.1%) - (0.3%) -6% (6.) (5.9%) -8% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Company Filings Rate Occupancy RevPAR H EAME/SWA RevPAR Growth 8% 6% % 5.1% 1. (0.) - - (4.) (3.) -6% (5.9%) -8% -1 (9.9%) (7.8%) -1 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Company Filings Rate Occupancy RevPAR 27
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