Monetary Survey March 2004

Transcription

1 Monetary Survey March 2004

2 Monetary Survey March 2004

3 NÁRODNÁ BANKA SLOVENSKA Imricha Karvaša Bratislava Slovakia Contact: Pulic Relations Department Phone No.: , Fax No.: Register No. MK SR: 3162/2004 ISSN X The advance release calendars and the prescried components of IMF s Special Data Dissemination Standards for the following data categories, are pulished exclusively on the Internet and are availale on the home page of the National Bank of Slovakia: Analytical accounts of the anking sector, analytical accounts of the central ank (advance release calendar only), Balance of payments, International reserves (advance release calendar only), International investment position, exchange rates, interest rates. Data categories are also pulished in other media, ut appear for the first time on Internet, the NBS we site.

4 CONTENTS 1. Introduction Inflation Consumer Price Index Producer Prices in Feruary Factors Affecting the Course of Inflation Monetary Aggregates Foreign Trade Real Economy Monetary Developments Foreign Exchange Market Money Market and Monetary Policy Implementation Customer Interest Rates in Feruary Annexes Capital Market Primary Market Secondary Market Monetary Developments in the Euro Area Exchange Rate Developments Real Economy Tales Selected indicators of economic and monetary development in the SR Monetary survey Money supply (M2) Developments in credits Developments in deposits Balance of payments of the SR from January Inflow of foreign direct investment into the SR in Inflow of foreign direct investment during January to Decemer Volume of foreign direct investment in the SR Outflow of foreign direct investment from Slovakia in Outflow of foreign direct investment during January to Decemer Outflow of foreign direct investment from the SR Average lending rates of commercial anks Volumes of new loans and average lending rates of commercial anks Koruna deposits and average deposit rates Basic characteristics of interest rates on loans and deposits Monetary policy instruments Basic characteristics of Slovakia's foreign exchange market in March Average exchange rates of the SKK Monetary ase of the NBS Shortened alance sheet of commercial anks as at 29 Feruary Monthly profit and loss account of commercial anks

5 Prepared on the asis of the Situation Report on the Monetary Development in March 2004, approved y the NBS Bank Board on 28 April

6 1. Introduction The level of consumer prices rose y 0.1% in March, while the prices of core inflation components increased month-on-month y 0.1%. The 12-month rate of consumer-price inflation reached 8.2%, with core inflation accounting for 2.05 percentage points. The rate of core inflation reached 2.8% on a year-on-year asis. The M2 money supply grew in Feruary y Sk 5.5 illion, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. Slovak-koruna deposits, as a component of the M2 monetary aggregate, grew month-on-month y Sk 7.1 illion and year-on-year y 6.2%. At current exchange rates, the money supply grew year-on-year y 4.3% in Feruary. The volume of loans to enterprises and households (at fixed exchange rates from 1 January 1993) grew in Feruary y Sk 3.9 illion, corresponding to a year-on-year increase of 12.7%. At current exchange rates, loans to enterprises and households grew year-on-year y 11.9%. The average interest rate on new loans rose y 0.1 of a percentage point in Feruary (to 7.6%), while the average rate for deposits fell y 0.2 of a percentage point (to 3.2%). On 31 March 2004, the State Budget of the SR closed with a surplus of Sk 1.2 illion. The foreign exchange reserves of the NBS (at current exchange rates) fell y USD million in March. At the end of the month, the volume of foreign exchange reserves was 5.5 times greater than the volume of the average monthly import of goods and services to Slovakia, during the first two months of In March, the National Bank of Slovakia purchased foreign exchange assets in the amount of EUR 85 million. During January, the alance of payments on current account generated a surplus of Sk 2.3 illion. In the same period the capital and financial account produced a deficit of Sk 1.7 illion. During the months of January and Feruary, the current account generated a surplus of Sk 4.1 illion, while trade resulted in a positive alance of Sk 1.3 illion. In March, the overall sterilisation position of the NBS vis-à-vis the anking sector stood at Sk illion, representing an increase of Sk 5.3 illion compared with the figure for Feruary. On 26 March 2004, the Board of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) decided to lower the key interest rates of the NBS y 0.5 of a percentage point (with effect from 29 March 2004), to 5.5% for two-week repo tenders, 4.0% for overnight sterilisation operations, and 7.0% for overnight refinancing transactions. 2. Inflation 2.1. Consumer Price Index Structure of the 12-Month Core Inflation Rate (%) Effect of food prices Effect of prices for tradale goods (excluding foodstuffs) Effect of prices for market services The average level of consumer prices recorded a moderate rise in March, while prices in individual sectors followed conflicting trends. Food prices fell, while regulated prices, tradale goods prices, and prices for market services increased. The March developments in consumer prices were in line with NBS expectations. Consumer prices increased y 0.1% in March, with regulated prices rising y 0.4% and the prices of core inflation components y 0.1%. The 12-month rate of overall inflation reached 8.2% (in Feruary 8.5%) and that of core inflation 2.8% (in Feruary 2.8%). The average 12-month inflation rate for the first three months of the year was 8.3%. Among the core inflation components, food prices fell on a month-on-month asis (for oth processed and unprocessed foodstuffs). The prices of tradale goods were primarily affected y an increase in fuel prices. Among market services prices, the steepest increases took place in prices for hotel, café, and restaurant services. Moderate rise in consumer prices Conflicting trends in core inflation components 3

7 Month-on-month drop in food prices Rise in fuel prices Slowdown in the dynamics of market services prices Food prices recorded a drop of 0.4% in March. Among processed food prices, which fell y an average of 0.4%, the sharpest drop was recorded in milk and dairy products prices. The price of sugar and sugar products also dropped. On the other hand, the price of read and flour products increased, due proaly to a rise in wheat prices as a result of poor harvest in Unprocessed food prices fell y an average of 0.6%, with prices falling month-on-month for the second consecutive month. Continued drops were recorded in meat and fruit prices, while other unprocessed food prices (mainly vegetales, including potatoes) increased. On a year-on-year asis, food prices rose y 1.6% in March (in Feruary y 1.9%). On a month-on-month asis, tradale goods prices increased in March y 0.3%, due mainly to a rise in fuel prices. The rise in fuel prices was due to an upward trend in the price of oil on the world markets in the first three months of the year. The price of toacco and alcoholic everages increased, while prices in other categories of tradale goods fell. On a year-on-year asis, the prices of tradale goods rose y 0.7% (in Feruary y 0.5%). Prices for market services increased month-on-month y 0.2%, mainly due to a rise in price levels for meals at restaurants. As opposed to the previous month, when charges for services related to housing recorded a marked increase, these prices rose only slightly in March. On a year-on-year asis, prices for market services rose y 7.8% (in Feruary y 8.2%). Consumer Prices in March 2004 Constant Comparative change Structure of the consumer asket weight in % Feruary 2004 March 2003 Total in % Regulated prices in % Share of total, in percentage points Impact of changes in indirect taxes on non-regulated prices Share of total, in percentage points Core inflation in % Share of total, in percentage points of which: food prices in % Share of total, in percentage points Net inflation (excluding the impact of changes in indirect taxes) in % Share of total, in percentage points Source: Statistical Office of the SR. Stagnation in the 12-month net inflation rate, excluding fuel prices Increase in regulated prices in education On a month-on-month asis, the prices of net inflation components (market services and tradale goods, excluding fuel prices) increased y 0.1%. The 12-month rate of net inflation, excluding fuel prices, remained unchanged in March, at the level of the previous month (3.5%). In March, regulated prices increased y an average of 0.4%. This increase was mainly due to a rise in prices in education, catering at schools, and health services. On a year-on-year asis, regulated prices increased y 14.7% (in Feruary y 15.8%) and continued to e the most dynamic consumer asket component. Structure of the 12-Month Inflation Rate (%) The consumer confidence indicator reached its most favourale value In March, the indicator of consumer confidence (-28.3) reached the most favourale figure in the last 17 months. The fall in pessimism in all the four components, and mainly the expected rate of unemployment, led to an improvement of 7.6 points in comparison with the previous month. Thus, the value of the indicator returned to the range of figures etter than the long-term average. Compared with the same period a year earlier, the Effect of core inflation Effect of regulated prices Effect of indirect taxes 4

8 Indicator of Consumer Confidence (%) consumer confidence indicator has improved y 9.8 points. This improvement is to a certain extent connected with the announcement of Kia s decision to invest in Slovakia. In response to questions aout the previous course of inflation, the average value of inflation (18.5%) was higher than the actual value of year-on-year inflation for Feruary In response to questions concerning the expected rate of inflation, the respondents gave an average value of 18.12%. The increase in consumer prices was dampened y food prices in April. The prices of tradale goods and market services are expected to show weak dynamics and fuel prices are expected to stailise. Forecasts for the next month Overall indicator of consumer confidence Long-term average of the indicator 2.2. Producer Prices in Feruary 2004 Industrial producer prices increased month-on-month y an average of 1.0% in Feruary, due to a rise in the prices of mineral raw materials (4.0%); electricity, gas, steam, and hot water (1.1%); and industrial products (0.8%). Month-on-month increase in industrial producer prices for the domestic market Producer Price Indices in Feruary 2004 Previous Same period period = 100 a year earlier = 100 January Feruary January Feruary Average Feruary Industrial producer prices (for the domestic market) Prices of industrial products Prices of mineral raw materials Prices of electricity, gas, steam, and hot water Industrial producer prices (for export) Prices of industrial products Prices of construction work Prices of uilding materials Prices of agricultural products Prices of plant products Prices of animal products Not monitored y the Statistical Office of the SR. The Feruary increase in industrial producer prices took place in all su-categories, ut the most significant contriution to this development was made y the prices of industrial products (in contrast with January). Price levels increased in all sectors, mainly the prices of products in sectors affected y external cost factors (the prices of refined oil products and chemicals rose y 3.8% and 1.6% respectively). The price of oil has een hovering aove the level of USD 30 per arrel since the eginning of the year. In addition to the low value of the US dollar and insufficient supplies of oil in the USA, oil prices were also affected y the OPEC decision to lower the production quota with effect from April The prices of foodstuffs, everages, and toacco rose y 0.7%, with the most significant increases eing recorded (in line with the situation in primary production in agriculture) in the prices of flour and starch products (6.8%) and industrially prepared animal fodder (4.3%). The prices of meat and meat products continued to fall on a month-on-month asis. The 12-month dynamics of industrial producer prices for the domestic market diminished from 4.4% in January to 2.3% in Feruary, due to a slowdown in the rate of increase in the price of electricity, gas, steam, and hot water (y 3.5%, compared with 8.5% in January) and industrial products prices (y 1.1%,... accompanied y a fall in year-on-year dynamics 5

9 Prices of industrial products for export in January y 1.6%). The prices of mineral raw materials rose y 7.8% (in Feruary y 5.5%). The slowdown in the rate of increase in energy prices is connected with the smaller range of adjustments to regulated prices in comparison with In addition to a decelerated increase in the prices of other non-metal mineral products, metals and metal products, the development of industrial products prices was affected y continued fall in the price of pulp, paper, and refined oil products. The prices of industrial products for export fell y an average of 0.2%, with prices falling in almost all sectors. The prices of metal products, electrical and optical equipment were higher than in January. Development of Industrial Producer Prices and Industrial Products Prices (index, same period a year earlier = 100) On a year-on-year asis, industrial products prices for export fell y 4.2%, with the most significant decreases 94 eing recorded in the prices of refined oil products (21.1%) and paper goods (10.2%). The prices of Industrial producer prices transport vehicles (products with the largest weight) fell Prices of industrial products y 2.2%. A comparison of the year-on-year dynamics of Prices of industrial products (export) industrial products prices for export and the nominal effective exchange rate of the Slovak koruna (NEER) indicates that changes in the export prices of domestic producers are determined mainly y the rate of appreciation and/or depreciation in the Slovak currency. This means that, where the prices of products intended for export are agreed in foreign currency, the receipts of Slovak exporters may fall as a result of exchange rate appreciation. Prices in agriculture After falling for almost two years (from April 2002), agricultural products prices increased on a year-onyear asis in Feruary. Compared with the same period of 2003, agricultural prices rose y an average of 2.3% as a result of an increase in the prices of plant products (13.9%). The prices of animal products remained unchanged, at the level of the previous year. Increases in plant products prices were found in the prices of all plants under review, mainly potatoes (20.7%) and cereals (14.4% on average). Cereal prices reflected the consequences of the decline in cereal production for the food industry as well as animal feeding (mainly wheat) in The prices of animal products were affected y a drop in the price of pork for live animals (4.9%), accompanied y a rise in the prices of poultry and eggs (9.1% equally). Comparison of NEER and Export Prices (index, same period a year earlier = 100) Jan. Fe. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul Ȧug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Fe. Mar Developments in Food Prices in Primary Production, Processing, and Consumption (index, same period a year earlier = 100) NEER (left-hand scale) Export prices Foodstuffs-CPI Food processing-ppi Agricultural production 6

10 3. Factors Affecting the Course of Inflation 3.1. Monetary Aggregates Monetary and credit aggregates continued to follow their standard seasonal course in Feruary, when all main monetary survey components recorded an increase (as in the same period a year earlier). Money Supply (M2) The M2 money supply (at fixed 1993 exchange rates) grew month-on-month y Sk 5.5 illion, to Sk illion in Feruary. The year-on-year rate of growth in M2 slowed in comparison with January y 1.0 percentage point (to 5.5%), as the Feruary increase was smaller than last year, when M2 grew month-on-month y Sk 11.6 illion. Slowdown in the M2 money supply growth Development of the M2 Money Supply Month-on-month Year-on-year Change since change change eginning (Sk illions) (%) of year (Sk illions) January Feruary Feruary January Feruary Feruary At fixed 1993 exchange rates: Net foreign assets Net domestic assets Domestic credits Net credit to general government Loans to enterprises and households Loans in Sk households enterprises (inc. insurance cos.) Loans in foreign currency Money Supply [M2] Money [M1] Currency outside anks [M0] Demand deposits households enterprises (inc. insurance cos.) Quasi-money [QM] Time deposits households enterprises (inc. insurance cos.) Foreign-currency deposits households enterprises (inc. insurance cos.) Koruna deposits households enterprises (inc. insurance cos.) At current exchange rates: Money Supply [M2] Foreign-currency deposits households enterprises (inc. insurance cos.)

11 The steeper increase in the money supply in Feruary 2003 was caused y a marked increase in net credit to the government, which grew month-on-month y Sk 7.8 illion, while Feruary 2004 saw a more moderate growth in M2 (Sk 4.4 illion). Development of the M2 Money Supply (Sk illions) (%) 12 Of the money supply components, the currency in circulation outside anks recorded the most significant fall in dynamics, which roke the trend of relatively stale growth (starting in Feruary 2003), at a rate of approximately 10% The year-on-year dynamics of demand deposits of enterprises followed a volatile course, with a marked month-on-month fall in Feruary. In the corporate sector, the rate of growth in time deposits also slowed, ut is still relatively high (25% on average, since 2003). In Feruary, household deposits recorded a moderate slowdown in the rate of decline in comparison with January, due to a slowdown in the rate of decline in time deposits, while the dynamics of demand deposits weakened. Since the end of 2003, after a relatively stale course during the year, the year-on-year growth dynamics of demand deposits in the household sector have een on the decrease (falling y 10 percentage points compared with Novemer 2003). At the same time, the decline in interest in time deposits on the part of households continued, with the volume of time deposits falling year-on-year since the end of The year-on-year rate of growth in foreign-currency deposits (at fixed 1993 exchange rates) accelerated month-on-month as a result of a slowdown in the rate of decline in household deposits, which was partly offset y a fall in the growth rate of corporate deposits. Household deposits in foreign currency have een following a relatively stale trend of fall in year-on-year dynamics since the second half of 2003 (13.3% on average). Since Septemer 2003, corporate deposits in foreign currency have shown dynamic year-on-year growth, which exceeded 30% after the first two months of the year. At current exchange rates, the M2 money supply grew month-on-month y Sk 4.7 illion, to Sk illion at the end of Feruary. The year-on-year dynamics of M2 at current rates weakened against January y 1.0 percentage point, to 4.3%. Loans to Enterprises and Households M2 at current exchange rate (Sk illions) 12-month dynamics of M2 at current exchange rate (in %) M2 at fixed initial exchange rate (Sk illions) 12-month dynamics of M2 at fixed initial exchange rate (in %) 4 2 Moderate slowdown in the year-on-year rate of growth in loans The volume of loans to enterprises and households (at fixed 1993 exchange rates) grew month-on-month y Sk 3.9 illion, to Sk illion in Feruary. The year-on-year dynamics of ank lending to enterprises and households remained roughly at the level of the previous month, at 12.7% (representing a slight fall of 0.1 of a percentage point). At current exchange rates, the year-on-year dynamics diminished to a greater extent as a result of exchange rate differences (y 0.4 of a percentage point, to 11.9%), when the volume of loans reached Sk illion in asolute terms (a month-on-month increase of Sk 3.6 illion). The Feruary increase in the volume of loans to enterprises and households took place predominantly in koruna loans to households (Sk 2.3 illion), while koruna loans to enterprises grew only slightly (y Sk 0.9 illion). The volume of foreign-currency loans (at fixed 1993 exchange rates) continued to grow at a moderate rate, though the Feruary increase (Sk 0.7 illion) was smaller than the figures in previous months. Koruna loans to households have grown y Sk 3.1 illion since the eginning of the year. After recording a moderate slowdown in January (Sk 0.8 illion), the Feruary increase (Sk 2.3 illion) was a continuation of the trend from the 2nd half of 2003, when loans to households grew month-on-month y an average of Sk 2.8 illion. The overall increase in the volume of loans to households in 2004 is still dominated y mortgage loans with a maturity of over 5 years, which have grown since the eginning of the year y Sk 1.9 illion (of which Sk 1.1 illion took place in Feruary). The remaining part of the total increase in loans to households in the first two months of 2004 took place in consumer credits (Sk 0.6 illion). Current account overdrafts, classified loans, and other loans have grown since the eginning of the year equally y Sk 0.2 illion. 8

12 Fiscal Developments, Net Credit to the Government At the end of Feruary, the volume of net credit to the general government (including the FNM) reached Sk illion (at fixed 1993 exchange rates), representing a month-on-month increase of Sk 4.4 illion. The increase was to a certain extent offset y a fall (Sk 0.2 illion) in FNM (National Property Fund) deposits at the NBS. Net credit to general government The Feruary increase in net credit to the general government was directly connected with the increase in the internal det of the government. A partial factor was a month-on-month increase in the central government s current udget deficit (Sk 1.7 illion). At the end of Feruary, the State Budget recorded a deficit of Sk 4.4 illion, with udget revenues totalling Sk 36.4 illion and expenditures Sk 40.8 illion. A sustantial component of total revenues were receipts from the payments of asic taxes. The volume of value added tax (VAT) reached Sk 15.5 illion, income tax Sk 9.1 illion, and excise duties Sk 6.1 illion. Net credit to the general government was also affected y a drop in the deposits of regional selfgovernments (Sk 0.6 illion), non-udgetary funds of state authorities at commercial anks (Sk 0.7 illion), selected non-udgetary funds at the NBS (Sk 0.4 illion), and an increase in loans provided to state authorities (Sk 0.4 illion). By the end of March, the udgetary performance of the central government has improved, to a surplus of Sk 1.2 illion. Income tax revenue increased y Sk 9.7 illion in connection with the deadline for the filing of personal and corporate tax returns for the fiscal year In line with the Issuing Schedule for 2004, the Agency for Det and Liquidity Management (ARDAL) announced two issues of State Treasury ills for March. Both issues were placed on the market through a Dutch auction, with an unlimited issue-amount and unset issue-rate. Current udgetary performance Primary market for State Treasury ills In March, ARDAL placed SR Treasury ills on the market in the amount Sk 3.7 illion, representing 29.6% of the total demand of investors. The yield accepted reached 5.15%, i.e. 19 ase points less than the BRIBOR rate for the corresponding maturity in the case of a comparale tax urden. Net Foreign Assets Net foreign assets (at fixed 1993 exchange rates) increased month-on-month y Sk 9.9 illion in Feruary, to Sk illion. Foreign assets increased y Sk 13.9 illion and foreign liailities y Sk 4.0 illion. Increase in net foreign assets Within the structure of foreign assets, the foreign exchange reserves of the NBS increased y Sk 16.2 illion, while the short-term foreign assets of commercial anks decreased y Sk 2.3 illion. The growth in NBS foreign exchange reserves was caused primarily y repo operations (Sk 11.9 illion) and interventions on the interank foreign exchange market (Sk 4.9 illion). On the foreign liailities side, the short-term foreign liailities of the NBS increased y Sk 11.6 illion, the volume of government securities held y non-residents y Sk 7.9 illion, and the long-term foreign liailities of commercial anks y Sk 1.2 illion, while the short-term foreign liailities of commercial anks fell y Sk 16.1 illion and the long-term foreign liailities of the NBS y Sk 0.6 illion. The increase in short-term foreign liailities of the NBS resulted from the Bank s repo operations, which tended to increase the foreign exchange reserves of the NBS on the foreign assets side, so had no effect on the overall level of net foreign assets. On the domestic money market, non-resident anks focus mainly on government onds, while other assets are used to a much lesser extent. This year, the attractiveness of the Slovak koruna increased as aresult of improvement in overall economic conditions, mainly in comparison with the emerging markets of Central Europe, which led to growth in the volume of koruna deposits. At the end of Feruary 2004, the koruna deposits of non-resident anks amounted to Sk 21.3 illion, representing an increase of Sk 7.3 illion compared with the figure for the end of The volume of government securities held y non-residents (government onds and State Treasury ills in total) increased month-on-month y Sk 0.5 illion in March, due mainly to growth in the volume of Treasury ills (Sk 1.9 illion). At the end of March, the volume of State Treasury ills in the portfolios of non-residents reached its highest level in the last two years (Sk 3.5 illion). At the same time, the volume of government onds dropped y Sk 1.4 illion, mainly in Issue No. 132 (a five-year issue) and Issue No. 200 (a three-year issue). Deposits of non-residents Government securities held y non-residents 9

13 Government Securities Held y Non-Residents (Sk illions) Koruna liailities of which: anks non-ank customers Government securities of which: Government onds State Treasury ills Total Note: Based on data from the reports BIL (NBS) 1-12 Monthly Balance of Assets and Liailities and from the Securities Centre in Bratislava Foreign Trade Balance of Payments for January 2004 Current account The current account resulted in a surplus in January 2004, due mainly to the positive alance of trade. In addition to the trade alance, improvement was also recorded in the alances of services and income. The only item that recorded a year-on-year deterioration was the alance of current transfers. Balance of Payments on Current Account (Sk illions) January 2004 January 2003 Balance of trade Exports Imports Services alance Income alance of which: income from investment Current transfers Current account in total Balance of trade Exports Imports Services alance Exports grew at a faster rate (11.5%; corresponding to 35.6% in USD and 14.0 % in EUR) than imports (6.6%; 29.6 % in USD and 8.9 % in EUR). The year-on-year increase in exports took place, as in 2003, mostly in machines and transport equipment. Within this category, exports increased first and foremost in automoiles, motor vehicle components, electrical and measuring instruments. In imports, the steepest year-on-year increases were recorded in motor vehicle components and accessories, electrical machines and equipment, machines and instruments (including automoile engines). Gas and oil imports fell in volume, causing the imports of mineral fuels to decline. The alance of services was almost in equilirium in January, which meant a certain improvement in comparison with the same period of Improvement was recorded in oth receipts and payments. The trend from the last quarter of 2003 continued, with the greatest decline in receipts eing recorded in tourism. The fact that the decline in receipts from tourism was accompanied y a more moderate fall in the expenses of Balance of Trade and Current Account Developments (Sk illions) 10 Jan. Fe. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec Trade alance 2002 Trade alance 2003 Trade alance 2004 Current account 2002 Current account 2003 Current account

14 Slovak citizens on foreign travel, caused the level of net income from tourism to fall y Sk 0.3 illion. A different trend was recorded in other services in total, where imports decreased to a greater extent than exports, mainly due to a fall in expenses on legal and accounting services. Exports in January, Year-on-year Change Year-on-year Proportion change of the year-on-year change in illions of Sk in % Jan Jan Jan Jan Raw materials Chemicals and semi-finished goods Machinery and transport equipment Finished goods (agricultural + industrial) Exports in total Imports in January, Year-on-year Change Year-on-year Proportion change of the year-on-year change in illions of Sk in % Jan Jan Jan Jan Raw materials Chemicals and semi-finished goods Machinery and transport equipment Finished products of which: Agricultural and industrial products Automoiles Machines and electrical consumer goods Imports in total Development of the Capital and Financial Account and its Components (moving cumulative figures) (Sk millions) 300, , , , ,000 50, ,000 Jan. Fe. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Capital account Direct investment Portfolio investment Other long-term investment Other short-term investment Capital and financial account The year-on-year improvement in the income alance deficit was caused mainly y a fall in interest payments on portfolio investments, which may e connected with the use of a different schedule of payments in 2003 and The surplus on current account was offset y an outflow of funds via the capital and financial account, which took place in the form of other investment, where drawings were exceeded y repayments in oth trade and financial credits. The growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the form of capital investment y foreign investors in Slovakia was affected y an inflow of funds into the individual industries. January 2004 saw no privatisation activities on the part of the National Property Fund. The inflow of funds in the area of portfolio investment was stimulated y the sale of foreign securities on the part of commercial anks, i.e. securities purchased in previous years (assets side). The involvement of nonresidents in the purchase of securities issued y Slovak entities was insignificant and focussed on the purchase of Sk-denominated government onds. The outflow of funds within the scope of other investment took place in long- and short-term capital. Income and current transfers alances Capital and financial account Foreign direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment 11

15 Balance of Payments on Capital and Financial Account (Sk illions) Jan Jan Capital account Direct investment of which: investment in the SR of which: other than privatisation Portfolio investment and financial derivatives SR aroad In the SR Other long-term investment Assets Liailities Short-term investment Assets Liailities Capital and financial account In addition to increased repayments of trade credits in the corporate sector and financial credits in the anking sector, the outflow of short-term capital was supported y other capital in the anking sector, when the funds provided y parent anks to their ranch offices in the SR were in part repaid. Foreign exchange reserves The foreign exchange reserves of the NBS increased y Sk 3.4 illion, i.e. USD 0.1 illion (excluding exchange rate differentials). Balance of Payments Adjusted for the Activities of the Government and the NBS (Sk illions) January 2004 Actual 1/ Adjusted 2/ Current account Capital and financial account of which: FDI in Slovakia capital participation Unclassified items Interventions y the NBS 3/ x -2.3 Change in the net foreign assets of commercial anks (- increase) x -4.8 Change in NBS reserves (- increase) -3.4 x 1/ Original alance of payments structure, i.e. effect of receipts and payments on NBS reserves. 2/ Adjusted for the effects of activities of the Government and the NBS, which do not affect the positions of commercial anks vis-à-vis non-residents and do not qualify as a source of finance for the current account. 3/ In the original structure of the alance of payments, interventions were included in the foreign exchange reserves of the NBS. The surplus on current account, as well as the inflow of funds into the corporate sector (direct investment, repayment of export credits, etc.), made it possile for net foreign assets in the anking sector to increase, despite the sale of foreign currency to the central ank. External Det of Slovakia at 31 January 2004 Gross foreign det At the end of January 2004, the total external det of the SR stood at USD illion (EUR illion), representing a fall of USD million (EUR million) compared with the previous month. Long-term foreign det increased only slightly (y USD 66.7 million in total), while short-term foreign det fell y a total of USD million. The increase in long-term foreign det (USD 87.5 million) took place in the liailities of the Government and the NBS arising from the purchase of koruna-denominated government onds y non-residents. The fall in the level of short-term foreign det was affected y a month-on-month decrease in the shortterm liailities of entrepreneurial entities (more than USD 390 million), due to a marked fall in the liailities of trade (supplier) credits and a fall in the foreign liailities of commercial anks 12

16 (USD million), mainly loans and other liailities. Over the period under review, the short-term foreign det of the SR Government and the NBS increased slightly (y USD 31.1 million), due to repo operations conducted y the NBS. At the end of January, per-capita gross foreign det stood at USD 3,329 in Slovakia. The share of shortterm det in the country s total gross external det decreased month-on-month y 1.7 percentage points, to 42.2%. External Det of the SR In millions of USD In millions of EUR Total external det of the SR 13, , , , , ,317.8 Long-term external det 8, , , , , ,278.5 Government and NBS 1/ 3, , , , , ,544.4 Commercial anks Entrepreneurial entities 4, , , , , ,473.2 Short-term external det 4, , , , , ,039.3 Government and NBS Commercial anks 1, , , , , ,262.3 Entrepreneurial entities 2, , , , , ,020.2 Foreign assets 14, , , , , ,225.4 Net external det -1, , SKK/USD and SKK/EUR rates: USD/EUR cross exchange rate: x x x 1/ Including government agencies and municipalities. The net external det of Slovakia expressed as the difference etween gross foreign det, i.e. USD 17.9 illion (liailities of the Government, the NBS, commercial anks, and the corporate sector except for capital participation), and foreign assets, i.e. USD 19.0 illion (foreign exchange reserves of the NBS, foreign assets of commercial anks and the corporate sector except for capital participation), reached USD 1.1 illion (creditor position) at the end of January. Net external det Current Developments Although foreign trade resulted in a moderate deficit in Feruary, in cumulative terms it generated a surplus over the first two months of the year. This, coupled with relatively favourale developments in the services, income, and current transfers alances, led to a surplus in the alance of payments on current account. Balance of Payments on Current Account (Sk illions) January Feruary 2004 January Feruary 2003 Balance of trade Exports Imports Services alance Income alance of which: income from investment Current transfers Current account in total In comparison with the same period in 2003, exports grew y 13.1% (37.4% in USD and 16.3% in EUR) and imports y 9.0% (32.5% in USD and 12.1% in EUR). Balance of trade 13

17 In March, foreign trade is expected to follow a trend of improvement on a year-on-year asis. Due to seasonal factors and the increased numer of working days, oth exports and imports are expected to grow in comparison with the previous month. The main stimulus to growth in exports will remain the automoile and machine industry. The growth in exports is expected to e followed y agrowth in the imports of semi-finished goods, machines, and goods for final consumption. Trade in March is expected to cause the deficit to increase slightly in comparison with Feruary. In April and May, the trade alance followed a similar course of development as in March. The expected excess of import dynamics over the rate of growth in exports will generate a further month-on-month increase in the trade alance, which will also depend on the further course of oil prices and the exchange rate of the koruna. At the end of March, the total foreign exchange reserves of the NBS stood at USD 12,214.2 million, representing a month-on-month fall of USD million. The fall in foreign exchange reserves in comparison with the end of Feruary was due to a deficit in the alance of receipts and expenses (USD 418 million), caused mainly y an outflow Development of the Current Account and its Components (moving cumulative figures) (Sk millions) -100, ,000 Fe. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Fe. Balance of trade Services alance Income alance Current transfers Current account resulting from NBS repo operations, offset partly y NBS interventions on the interank foreign exchange market. At the end of the month, the volume of foreign exchange reserves was 5.5 times greater than the volume of average monthly imports of goods and services to Slovakia, over the first two months of the year. 30,000 20,000 10, ,000-20,000-30,000-40,000-50,000-60,000-70,000-80,000-90,000 Current Account Monthly Data (Sk illions) Monthly data January 2004 Feruary 2004 Balance of trade Services alance Income alance Current transfers Current account Nominal effective exchange rate of the Slovak koruna (NEER) The average monthly exchange rate of the koruna to the euro continued to appreciate in March, y 0.4% on a month-on-month asis. In relation to the US dollar, however, the koruna depreciated y 2.6% (after having appreciated for six months). The year-on-year appreciation in the average monthly SKK/EUR rate slowed to 3.2% (from 3.3% in Feruary) and the figure for the SKK/USD rate to 14.8% (from 17.6% in Feruary). The 12-month dynamics of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) 1 reached 4.9% in March. Changes in the Exchange Rate of the Slovak Koruna in 2004 (compared with 31 Decemer 2003, in %) The methodology applied for calculating the nominal and effective exchange rates of the Slovak koruna (NEER and REER) is the same one used y the IMF. The REER is calculated on the asis of the consumer price index (CPI), the industrial producer price index (PPI), and/or the industrial producer price index, excluding the price of mineral raw materials, electricity, gas, steam, and hot water (PPI manufacturing). The initial year for the calculation is 1999, and the weights selected correspond to the structure of foreign trade in 1999, for the nine most important trading partners of Slovakia, representing roughly 70% of the total turnover of foreign trade. These countries are Germany, Czech Repulic, Italy, Austria, France, the Netherlands, the USA, Great Britain, and Switzerland Jan. Fe. Mar. SKK/USD SKK/EUR Note: - Appreciation of the Sk, + Depreciation of the Sk. 14

18 Cumulative NEER and REER Dynamics since the Beginning of the Year (%) For 9 partners, NEER REER REER REER ased on the deflator: (CPI) (PPI) (PPI manuf.) Year-on-year Dynamics of the NEER and REER Indices (ased on CPI, PPI, and PPI manufacturing, for 9 trading partners, in %) In Feruary, the year-on-year dynamics of the real effective exchange rate followed a different course of development in the individual variants of REER according to the price deflator applied. The year-on-year rate of appreciation in the REER index on the asis of the PPI fell to 6.7% (from 7.6% in January), while increasing on the asis of the CPI and industrial products prices to 12.2% and 5.4% respectively. The fall in the year-on-year dynamics of REER on the asis of the PPI was mainly due to a continued slowdown in the rate of increase in industrial producer prices Real Economy Current Developments Real effective exchange rate of the Slovak koruna (REER) Production and Receipts NEER REER (PPI manufacturing) REER (PPI) REER (CPI) After decelerating in January, industrial production continued to grow dynamically in Feruary on a year-onyear asis. Industrial output was affected y accelerated growth in manufacturing production, while production in raw materials extraction, electricity generation / distriution, and in gas and water supply continued to decline. Dynamic growth in industrial production In manufacturing, accelerated growth was recorded in the production of electrical and optical equipment, transport vehicles, ruer and plastic goods, and machines and equipment. Numerous industrial sectors recorded a relatively sharp decline in production in January, which moderated in Feruary (food industry, including the production of everages and toacco, leather processing, and the manufacture of leather Development of Industrial and Manufacturing Production (3-month moving averages) (index, same period a year earlier = 100) Development of Industrial Production in Selected Sectors (3-month moving averages) (index, same period a year earlier = 100) IIP in total IIP manufacturing IIP foodstuffs IIP electrical and optical equipment IIP metals and metal products IIP transport equipment 15

19 Accelerated growth in construction goods), and/or turned into growth (wood working and wood production; production of coke, refined oil products, and nuclear fuels; production of other nonmetal mineral goods), which is proaly connected with the gradual revival of domestic demand. Despite the negative expectations of usiness entities, which arose from the results of an economic trend research in January, the year-on-year growth in construction accelerated in Feruary, with production growing oth in Slovakia and aroad. Domestic production was affected y growth in production in new construction, reconstruction, and modernisation projects. Receipts from Retail Sales and the Sale of Motor Vehicles and Fuels (3-month moving averages) (index, same period a year earlier = 100) Receipts from selected services Receipts from services showed positive development, when all sectors (except real estate, renting, and other usiness services) recorded a year-on-year increase in Feruary, after eing stagnant and/or falling for a long time. After declining throughout 2003 and growing slightly in January, retail sales receipts increased in Feruary y 4% in comparison with the same period a year earlier. The growth in receipts was stimulated y an increase in receipts from the sale of pharmaceuticals and cosmetics and, in particular, y a dynamic growth in receipts in specialised retail shops and receipts outside shops Retail sales Sales of motor vehicles and fuels The Feruary receipts from the sale of automoiles and the retail sale of fuels showed stronger growth than in January. After falling in January, the receipts of transport organisations increased in Feruary. The dynamic growth in receipts - more than 16% - took place in railway transport and in secondary and auxiliary services, and after a long period of decline, in other road transport. The growth in receipts resulted from increases in the volumes of goods transported and the outputs of individual transport sectors. Production and Receipts Sk millions, current prices Indices Fe. cumulative since Jan Fe Fe Jan. Fe eginning 2004 of year Jan Fe Fe Jan. Fe Production: Index of industrial production 1/ 2/ of which Raw materials extraction Manufacturing Electricity, gas, and water supply Construction 2/ 5,238 10, of which: Construction in Slovakia 4,958 9, Construction aroad Receipts from own-output and goods: Industry in total 3/ 114, , Construction 2/ 8,079 15, Retail trade 3/ 25,064 51, Sale and maintenance of vehicles, retail sale of fuels 3/ 10,695 19, Transport, storage 3/ 7,698 13, Real estate, leasing, and usiness services 3/ 9,688 18, / Adjusted for the effect of the numer of working days (the data in the time series are revised on a continuous asis). 2/ Index, same period of the previous year = 100 (constant prices, average for 2000 = 100). 3/ Index, same period of the previous year = 100 (constant prices, Decemer 2000 = 100, transport and storage current prices). 16

20 The year-on-year drop in the receipts of entities specialising in real estate, leasing, and other usiness services, continued in Feruary, though at a slower rate than in January. The level of receipts was affected y a year-on-year fall in receipts from other usiness services, which accounted for more than 60% of total receipts in the services sector. Wages and Unemployment The relatively strong year-on-year growth in nominal wages, which was recorded in selected sectors of the Slovak economy in January, continued in Feruary, with the rate of growth accelerating in some of the sectors. A marked slowdown in nominal wage dynamics was recorded only in transport and storage. The strongest growth was recorded, as in January, in telecommunications (48.1%), which was affected y the payment annual onuses for 2003 (according to the Statistical Office of the SR). Nominal wages In the first two months of 2004, nominal wages in the sectors under analysis showed stronger year-onyear growth dynamics than in the corresponding period of the previous year. Slower growth in nominal wages was recorded only in real estate, renting, usiness, and other services. In addition to the shift of the payment of flexile wage components in selected sectors from 2003 to 2004, wage developments this year are expected to reflect the effects of wage restrictions from 2003, when the usiness sector failed, despite a relatively steep increase in laour productivity and favourale financial results, to take advantage of the room for wage growth and postponed wage adjustments until From January to Feruary, the average real monthly wage showed stronger dynamics than a year earlier in most sectors under review. Wage levels were lower only in postal and delivery services and in industrial production. Real wages were affected mainly y the growth in nominal wages, when the year-on-year increase in average consumer prices was one percentage point steeper than in the same period a year earlier and had a dampening effect on real wage development. Real wages Wage Developments y Sector (index, same period of the previous year = 100) Average monthly Average monthly nominal wage real wage Feruary January Feruary Feruary January Feruary Industry Construction Retail trade Wholesale trade Real estate, renting, usiness, and other services Transport Posts & telecom Consumer prices x x x x Notes: The aove sectors accounted for 57.2% of total employment in 2003 (on average). Real wage index = nominal wage index / consumer price index. The relationship etween wages and laour productivity followed a different course of development in the individual sectors. In sectors where laour productivity (ased on receipts from own-output and goods) is monitored at current prices, productivity grew at a faster rate than nominal wages in transport. In post and telecommunications, the growth in laour productivity remained well ehind the growth in nominal wages. In the wholesale trade, where nominal wages grew at a relatively fast rate, laour productivity recorded a decline. Resources for wage growth in this sector were created in 2003, when laour productivity grew at a much faster rate than wages. Laour productivity and wages In sectors where productivity is monitored in real terms, favourale relationship to real wages was recorded in industry and the retail trade. On the contrary, unfavourale development was recorded in real estate, renting, usiness, and other services, as well as in construction, where the real wage growth was accompanied y a fall in laour productivity. In Feruary, the total numer of jo applicants registered at laour offices stood at 466,400, representing a decrease of 2,900 compared with the January figure. The rate of unemployment, ased on the numer of registered unemployed, fell month-on-month y 0.1 of a percentage point in Feruary to 16.5%, which was 0.6 of a percentage point less than in the same period a year earlier. Unemployment 17