Sotheby s Second Quarter and First Half 2008 Earnings Call Outline August 5, Summary:
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1 Sotheby s Second Quarter and First Half 2008 Earnings Call Outline August 5, 2008 Summary: Today we are announcing second quarter revenues of $320.2 million and operating income of $150.9 million, both of which are at the upper end of the ranges we guided to in an 8K in early June. Those ranges were $305 to $330 million in second quarter revenues and $135 to $160 million in second quarter operating income. Second quarter revenues of $320.2 million reflect a $19.3 million or 6% decline from the prior year second quarter which is mainly due to the shift of our summer Contemporary sales in London from the second quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of Those sales brought $24 million in revenues to second quarter 2007 results and will contribute approximately $26 million to third quarter 2008 results. Auction commission margin for the second quarter of 2008 was 15.1% which is a significant improvement from the 13.6% level of the first quarter of this year although not quite as high as the prior year second quarter margin of 16.0%. Auction commission margins have been impacted by our conscious decision to manage risk prudently in this global economic environment. The improvement from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2008 is partly due to the buyer s premium increase we announced on this call in May that was effective as of June 1 st but is even more due to a change in sales mix and our concentrated efforts to manage deal margins more effectively. - A year ago, the opposite of this was true as auction commission margin declined from 16.6% in the first quarter to 16.0% in the second quarter. Also effecting second quarter results is an $18.4 million benefit from the reversal of the remaining liability associated with the coupons we issued in 2003 with the settlement of our antitrust related civil litigation. The coupons expired in May of this year and this marks the end of our financial commitments relating to our antitrust liabilities. The second quarter net income decline is not reflective of demand or sales levels but is largely due to the shift in the sales calendar. In fact, had the London Contemporary sales remained in the second quarter of 2008 (instead of the third quarter of 2008), our net auction sales would have been up $266.0 million or 15% for the quarter. With the movement of these sales to the third quarter as well as the landmark Damien Hirst sale upcoming on September 15 th and 16 th in London, estimated in excess of $130 million, we except third quarter results to be stronger than the third quarter a year ago, albeit with typically lower anticipated commission margins on these high end Contemporary sales. 1
2 Overall Results Net income for the second quarter of 2008 was $95.3 million or $1.46 per share, compared to net income of $107.3 million or $1.64 per diluted share, in the prior period. - This $12.0 million, or 11%, decline is largely due to the shift of our London Contemporary sales from the second quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of Also impacting second quarter results is the $18.4 million benefit ($11.7 million after-tax) from the reversal of the remaining coupon liability in conjunction with the settlement of our antitrust related civil litigation. Net income for the first half of 2008 was $82.9 million, or $1.26 per diluted share, compared to $131.7 million, or $2.02 per diluted share for the prior year period. Operating Revenues In the second quarter of 2008, operating revenues totaled $320.2 million, a $19.3 million, or 6%, decrease from the prior period. - This deterioration largely stems from the shift of our summer London Contemporary sales from second quarter 2007 to third quarter As we mentioned, in 2007, these sales were held in June and resulted in second quarter Net Auction Sales and auction commission revenues of approximately $168 million and $24 million, respectively. However, in 2008, these sales were held in early July and will result in third quarter Net Auction Sales and auction commission revenues of approximately $213 million and $26 million, respectively. - Also adversely affecting second quarter revenues is a $10.5 million decline in results from principal activities largely stemming from losses related to property offered and sold under one auction guarantee. - However, in the third quarter of 2008, the Company will recognize a principal activities gain of approximately $4 million related to its share of overage on guaranteed property sold under one auction guarantee in its July London Contemporary Art sales. Year to date, as of today, we are materially profitable on our guarantee portfolio, in the first quarter as well as in the second quarter. For the first six months of 2008, operating revenues totaled $449.4 million, a $37.5 million, or 8%, deterioration from the prior six month period, primarily due to the aforementioned shift in the sales calendar for Contemporary, lower commission margins and lower results from principal activities over the period. 2
3 Direct Costs of Services Consists largely of catalogue production and distribution costs, as well as sale marketing costs and shipping expenses. For the three and six months ended June 30, 2008, direct costs of services increased $9.4 million, or 36%, to $35.2 million and $9.4 million, or 24%, to $48.7 million respectively, when compared to the same periods in the prior year. - These increases are primarily attributable to higher consignment and sale levels in Hong Kong, as well as higher catalogue and sale promotion costs related to the spring Impressionist and Contemporary Art sales in New York. These increases are not a proxy for projecting our business going forward and we are taking steps to address this. Marketing Expenses Marketing expenses are costs related to the promotion of the Sotheby's brand, including the cost of client service initiatives and strategic sponsorships of important cultural institutions. Marketing expenses increased $0.7 million to $5.6 million in the second quarter of 2008 and $1.9 million to $10.9 million in the first half of 2008 as compared to the same periods of 2007 due to an increased level of corporate sponsorships of leading museums and cultural institutions in the United States and the United Kingdom, as well as higher costs to promote the Sotheby s brand around the world. Salaries and Related Costs Salaries and related costs decreased $13.2 million, or 16%, to $71.9 million in the second quarter of 2008 and $6.8 million, or 5%, to $133.1 million in the first half of 2008 as compared to the same periods in For the three and six months ended June 30, 2008, salaries and related costs were negatively impacted by $2.0 million and $3.6 million, respectively, as a result of movements in foreign currency exchange rates. This improvement is largely due to lower incentive bonus accruals which are $12.2 million, or 47% lower in the second quarter of 2008 and $11.9 million, or 42% lower in the first half of 2008 and is directly attributable to the decline in profitability over the period. 3
4 General & Administrative Costs For the three and six months ended June 30, 2008, general and administrative expenses increased $0.6 million, or 1%, and $8.0 million, or 10%, when compared to the same periods in the prior year. During these periods, general and administrative expenses increased approximately $0.9 million in the quarter and $2.0 million in the first half as a result of movements in foreign currency exchange rates. The remainder of the overall increase is largely attributable to the following factors: - A $0.4 million decrease in second quarter professional fees and a first half $3.1 million, or 12%, increase in professional fees. The increase in first half professional fees is primarily attributable to a $2.3 million increase associated with the Company s outsourced tax compliance function. To a lesser extent, the increase was also caused by higher consulting, audit and legal fees. The comparison of professional fees is favorably impacted by $2.2 million in costs recorded in the second quarter of 2007 associated with the Company s assessment of its rights and options with respect to the York Property, for which there are no comparable costs in the second quarter or first half of A First half increase of $1.7 million, or 13%, in travel and entertainment costs principally due to the higher level of travel for pursuing business opportunities during the period. Also contributing to the higher level of T&E were price increases for airfares, hotels and other travel costs. Substantially all of the first half increase in travel and entertainment costs was attributable to the first quarter of Increases of $1.7 million and $2.4 million, respectively, in premises rental and other facilitiesrelated costs, primarily as a result of U.K. premises initiatives. Net Interest Expense For the three and six months ended June 30, 2008, net interest expense increased $2.8 million and $3.3 million, respectively, when compared to the prior year due to lower average cash and short-term investment balances, as well as lower interest rates earned on cash balances. We expect interest expense to increase by approximately $7 million for the full year 2008 when compared to the prior year primarily due to incremental interest expense related to the Convertible Notes and Senior Notes issued on June 17 th Sales To Date The art market has continued to be strong, and the demand for great works has remained high, with year to date July auction sales up 14% from last year s record-breaking pace. Our May fine arts sales in New York were outstanding and were highlighted by the sale of Francis Bacon s Triptych, 1976 for a record $86.3 million, the highest price ever for a Contemporary Art work at auction and the highest price achieved at auction so far this year. 4
5 - This masterpiece was sold in the evening Contemporary Art sale, an auction which brought $362.0 million, the highest single sale total in Sotheby s history. That week s series of Contemporary sales totaled some $470 million, at the high end of the presale estimate range. - The New York May Impressionist sales also achieved excellent results with a total of $272.6 million, in line with the pre-sale estimate of $245/337 million. The summer Impressionist and Contemporary sales in London were our best ever, with a total of $497.5 million over the two week period in late June/early July, near the high end of the pre-sale combined estimate of $358/511 million and 24% above last year s sales. - The Impressionist and Modern Art Sales brought $255.1 million and were highlighted by the sale of Gino Severini s Danseuse for $29.6 million. - The Contemporary Art sales totaled million and were highlighted by the sale of Francis Bacon s Study for Head of George Dyer for $27.4 million. - Over the two week period, Sotheby s sold 102 lots for $1 million or more. Year to date, we have sold 577 lots for $1 million or more. Sotheby s July Old Masters sales in London achieved $117.3 million, well above the pre-sale high estimate of $106 million and 32% above last year s total with the top lot a re-discovered portrait by Frans Hals which sold for $14.0 million. Upcoming Sales In London on September 15 th and 16 th, we are very honored to present the Beautiful Inside My Head Forever sale of over 200 new works by Damien Hirst. The various pieces were created by Damien Hirst over the past two years and incorporate an extraordinary range of works, the highlight being The Golden Calf, a remarkable sculpture of a bull in formaldehyde whose head is crowned by a solid gold disc. The sculpture is estimated to realize $16/24 million and the entire sale is estimated to bring in excess of $130 million. From October 4 th to 8 th, we are looking forward to our fall series of sales in Hong Kong which are estimated to total $265 million, a 31% increase from the prior fall s total of $202.4 million. A major exhibition of Modern and Contemporary sculpture entitled Beyond Limits will be held at Chatsworth in Derbyshire in the British countryside this fall. Works by artists such as Fernando Botero, Kiki Smith, Ron Arad and Salvador Dali will be exhibited and all will be available for private purchase. The exhibition will take place between September 9 th and November 2 nd. 5
6 Competitive Environment/Outlook Sales to date continue to be strong, with no obvious slackening of demand from the record pace of a year ago. Again, the decline in our second quarter results is really a function of the movement of our London Contemporary sales from the second quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2008 and not at all a result of a slowing market. We expect third quarter 2008 results to be strong when compared to the prior period, and as we have said, approximately $26 million in revenues were shifted to the third quarter of We are very encouraged by the current state of our business - we have improved our auction commission margins from 13.6% in the first quarter of this year to 15.1% in the second quarter, which is only in small part due to the buyer s premium increase that became effective on June 1 st and much more due to our efforts in consolidating and centralizing deal making to manage margins, as well as a change in sales mix. We have implemented rigorous global procedures, led by our senior business development team, to support the deal-making process for all major consignments; - we have delivered on the promise to manage our compensation levels as evidenced by a 49% decrease in incentive bonus accruals in the second quarter as compared to the prior period; - the final chapter of our antitrust financial obligations is firmly closed with the expiration of the vendor s commission certificates in May and the reversal of the remaining liability generating an $18 million benefit; and - we have successfully raised $350 million in the capital markets which now provides us with greater liquidity than we have ever enjoyed. We were upgraded to investment grade by S&P in early June and we have retired our $100 million bond that was due in February Our company today is in an excellent position to be flexible and competitive and to continue our long tradition as innovators in our markets. - our consolidated sales, which include auction, private and dealer sales, were $3.2 billion for the first half of Including the $242 million London Contemporary sales last month, consolidated sales would have been $3.44 billion which is virtually identical to our traditional competitor s comparable sales. Against a backdrop of financial uncertainty, our business continues going strong. We reiterate what we said to you on this call in May that Sotheby s continues to deliver outstanding sales and credible results which reflect very strong collector interest. The broad long term story of global wealth creation continues unabated as the economic elite continue to drive our business, many of whom appear somewhat insulated from the market woes we read and hear about all day long. Note: All estimates do not include buyer s premium. 6
7 Forward Looking Statements: GAAP refers to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States of America. In this earnings call, financial measures are presented in accordance with GAAP and also on a non-gaap basis. When significant, the Company excludes the impact of changes in foreign currency exchange rates when comparing current year results to the prior year. Consequently, such period-to-period comparisons are provided on a constant dollar basis by eliminating the impact of changes in foreign currency exchange rates since the prior year. Management believes that excluding the impact of significant changes in foreign currency exchange rates when comparing current year results to the prior year provides a more meaningful discussion and analysis of fluctuations in the Company s operating results. Also, during the course of this call, the Company may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the Company. We wish to caution you that such projections and statements are only predictions and involve risks and uncertainties, resulting in the possibility that the actual events or performance will differ materially from such predictions. We refer you to the documents the Company files periodically with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the Company s most recently filed Form 10-Q and 10-K. These documents identify important factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contained in the projections or forward-looking statements. 7
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