Scotia Howard Weil Energy Conference. March 25-26, 2019
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1 Scotia Howard Weil Energy Conference March 25-26, 2019
2 Forward-Looking Statements and Other Disclosures This presentation includes forward looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. The statements regarding future financial and operating performance and results, returns to shareholders, strategic pursuits and goals, market prices, future hedging and risk management activities, and other statements that are not historical facts contained in this report are forward-looking statements. The words expect, project, estimate, believe, anticipate, intend, budget, plan, forecast, outlook, target, predict, may, should, could, will and similar expressions are also intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, market factors, market prices (including geographic basis differentials) of natural gas and crude oil, results of future drilling and marketing activity, future production and costs, legislative and regulatory initiatives, electronic, cyber or physical security breaches and other factors detailed herein and in our other Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings. See Risk Factors in Item 1A of the Form 10-K and subsequent public filings for additional information about these risks and uncertainties. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual outcomes may vary materially from those indicated. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and Cabot Oil & Gas (the Company or Cabot ) does not undertake any obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement, whether as the result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. This presentation may contain certain terms, such as resource potential, risked or unrisked resources, potential locations, risked or unrisked locations, EUR (estimated ultimate recovery) and other similar terms that describe estimates of potentially recoverable hydrocarbons that the SEC rules prohibit from being included in filings with the SEC. These estimates are by their nature more speculative than estimates of proved, probable and possible reserves and may not constitute reserves within the meaning of SEC rules and accordingly, are subject to substantially greater risk of being actually realized. These estimates are based on the Company s existing models and internal estimates. Actual locations drilled and quantities that may be ultimately recovered from the Company s interests could differ substantially. Factors affecting ultimate recovery include the scope of the Company s ongoing drilling program, which will be directly affected by the availability of capital, drilling and production costs, availably of drilling services and equipment, drilling results, lease expirations, transportation constraints, regulatory approvals, actual drilling results, including geological and mechanical factors affecting recovery rates, and other factors. These estimates may change significantly as development of the Company s assets provide additional data. Investors are urged to consider carefully the disclosures and risk factors about Cabot s reserves in the Form 10 K and other reports on file with the SEC. This presentation also refers to Discretionary Cash Flow, EBITDAX, Free Cash Flow, Adjusted Net Income (Loss), Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) and Net Debt calculations and ratios. These non-gaap financial measures are not alternatives to GAAP measures, and should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative for analysis of the Company s results as reported under GAAP. For additional disclosure regarding such non-gaap measures, including definitions of these terms and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to Cabot s most recent earnings release at and the Company s related 8-K on file with the SEC. 2
3 Cabot Oil & Gas Overview Marcellus Shale ~2,900 Remaining Undrilled Locations 1 Year-End 2018 Net Operated Producing Horizontal Wells: Wells Placed on Production: 84 Net Wells 2019E Wells Placed on Production: Net Wells 2018 Year-End Proved Reserves: 11.6 Tcfe (19% growth year-over-year, 25% per debt-adjusted share 2 ) 2018 Production: 2,014 Mmcfe/d (7% growth year-over-year, 12% per debt-adjusted share 2 ) 2019E Production Growth: 20% (27% per debt-adjusted share 2 ) 2019E Capital Expenditures: $800 million 1 As of year-end Debt-adjusted share count is calculated as the sum of the annual weighted average shares outstanding plus the incremental debt shares by dividing average total debt by the average annual share price 3
4 Cabot Oil & Gas Strategy Disciplined capital allocation focused on: Delivering growth per debt-adjusted share Increasing return of capital to shareholders Generating positive flow Maintaining a strong balance sheet Improving corporate returns on capital employed Deliver growth in production and reserves per debt-adjusted share while generating positive flow 2018 production growth of 7% (12% per debt-adjusted share 1 ) 2018 reserve growth of 19% (25% per debt-adjusted share 1 ) 2018 flow generation of $297mm 2019E production growth of 20% (27% per debt-adjusted share 1 ) 2019E flow generation of $600 - $650mm at $2.75 NYMEX ( yield 2 ) Generate an improving return on capital employed (ROCE) that exceeds our cost of capital 2018 ROCE of 15.9%, an increase of approximately 860 basis points year-over-year 2019E ROCE of 21% - 23% at $2.75 NYMEX Increase the return of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases Returned over $1.0 billion of capital in 2018, implying >9% total shareholder yield 2 Increased quarterly dividend per share by 40% in 2018 Repurchased approximately 38.5 million shares in 2018 Cabot is committed to returning >50% of flow to shareholders annually through dividends and share repurchases Maintain a strong balance sheet to maximize financial flexibility Net debt / LTM EBITDAX of 1.0x as of 12/31/2018 Liquidity of ~$1.8 billion as of 12/31/2018 Paid down $304mm of senior notes at maturity, resulting in annualized interest expense savings of $21.8mm Note: See supplemental tables at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of non-gaap measures 1 Debt-adjusted share count is calculated as the sum of the annual weighted average shares outstanding plus the incremental debt shares by dividing average total debt by the average annual share price 2 Based on market capitalization as of March 19,
5 Proven Track Record of Debt-Adjusted per Share Growth Daily Production Per Debt-Adjusted Share Year-End Proved Reserves Per Debt-Adjusted Share flow 1 flow Debt-adjusted share count is calculated as the sum of the annual weighted average shares outstanding plus the incremental debt shares by dividing average total debt by the average annual share price 5
6 Industry-Leading Cost Structure Continues to Improve Total Company All-Sources Finding & Development Costs ($/Mcfe) $0.87 $0.55 $0.71 $0.57 $0.37 $0.35 $ Marcellus All-Sources Finding & Development Costs flow ($/Mcf) flow $0.49 $0.40 $0.43 $0.31 $0.26 $0.22 $
7 Resulting in a Continued Reduction in Breakeven Prices All-In Operating Expenses (Including Non-Cash Expenses) ($/Mcfe) $3.69 Operating Transportation¹ DD&A Taxes O/T Income Total G&A Financing Exploration $3.03 $2.56 $2.37 $2.17 $2.02 $1.76 $ $ E Cash Operating Expenses free ($/Mcfe) flow 4 Operating Transportation¹ Taxes O/T Income Cash G&A² Financing³ Exploration $ $1.31 $1.30 $1.30 $1.16 $1.13 $1.00 $ $ E 1 Includes all demand charges and gathering fees 2 Excludes stock-based compensation 3 Excludes non-cash interest expense associated with income tax reserves and amortization of deferred financing cost 4 Excludes dry hole cost 5 Based on operating expense guidance range 5 7
8 Cabot s 2019 Operating Plan is Expected to Deliver Continued Improvement in ROCE Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) 24% - 26% 21% - 23% 19% - 21% 7.3% 15.9% flow flow E - $2.50 NYMEX¹ 2019E - $2.75 NYMEX¹ 2019E - $3.00 NYMEX¹ Note: See supplemental tables at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of non-gaap measures 1 Estimated ROCE ranges based on operating expense guidance ranges 2 As of 3/21/2019, includes actual settlement prices for January, February and March 2017 Average NYMEX Settlement Price: $ Average NYMEX Settlement Price: $3.09 Current Full-Year 2019 NYMEX Futures Price: $
9 and a Significant Expansion of Free Cash Flow Free Cash Flow ($mm) $700 - $750 $600 - $650 $475 - $525 $155 $297 flow yield free 1,2 free flow yield cash 1,2 flow $ E - $2.50 NYMEX¹ Note: See supplemental tables at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of non-gaap measures 1 Estimated flow ranges based on operating expense guidance ranges 2 Estimated flow yields are based on market capitalization as of 3/19/2019 and the midpoint of the estimated flow range 3 As of 3/21/2019, includes actual settlement prices for January, February and March 2019E - $2.75 NYMEX¹ 2019E - $3.00 NYMEX¹ 2017 Average NYMEX Settlement Price: $ Average NYMEX Settlement Price: $3.09 Current Full-Year 2019 NYMEX Futures Price: $
10 $1,000 $900 $800 Cabot is Committed to Returning Capital to Shareholders Return of Capital to Shareholders ($mm) Dividends Share Repurchases Total shareholder yield >9% 2 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 $904 (Remaining share repurchase authorization of ~11.6mm shares 1 ) free free Commodity cash Price Downturn flow yield cash 1,2 flow flow yield free 1,2 $124 $165 $139 yield $13 $17 1,2 $25 $33 $33 $36 $79 $ Increased Increased Increased Increased Dividend 33% Dividend 100% Dividend 150% Dividend 40% Cabot is committed to returning >50% of flow to shareholders annually through dividends and share repurchases 1 As of February 20, Based on market capitalization as of March 19, 2019 Note: The chart above excludes the Company s 2016 equity issuance 10
11 Since 2017, Cabot Has Reduced its Shares Outstanding by Nine Percent Common Shares Outstanding (in millions) flow yield free 1,2 free flow yield cash 1,2 flow 2017 Weighted-Average 2018 Weighted-Average Current (As of 2/20/2019) 11
12 Cabot s Balance Sheet Provides Financial Flexibility Through the Commodity Price Cycles Net Debt to LTM EBITDAX 2.5x Target Leverage Ratio: 1.0x 1.5x 1.8x 1.4x 1.4x 0.9x 1.2x flow yield free 1,2 free flow yield cash 1,2 flow 1.0x 1.0x Note: See supplemental tables at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of non-gaap measures 12
13 Cabot s Differentials Continue to Improve, Driven by New Infrastructure Projects and In-Basin Demand Growth Weighted-Average Differential to NYMEX Before Hedges ($/Mcf) $ E¹ ($0.25) ($0.50) ($0.75) ($0.85) ($0.76) flow yield free 1,2 ($0.80) ($0.51) free flow yield cash 1,2 flow ($0.30) ($1.00) ($1.00) ($1.25) 1 Based on forward curves as of 2/20/
14 Cabot s Recycle Ratio is Unrivaled Across Both Oil and Gas Peers 5.8x 2019E All-In Total Recycle Ratio After G&A and Interest Expense 3.9x 2.4x 2.4x 2.1x 2.0x 1.8x 1.7x 1.5x 1.5x 1.5x 1.4x 1.4x 1.3x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x 1.0x Source: BMO Capital Markets report "2018 Reserve Data Suggests Higher F&D and Breakevens" dated March 7, Assumes Henry Hub of $2.98/Mmbtu, WTI of $50.29/Bbl, Brent of $57.67/Bbl, and NGLs of $25.90/Bbl Peers include: APA, APC, AR, CHK, CLR, CXO, DVN, EOG, EQT, FANG, HES, MRO, NBL, PE, PXD, RRC, SWN, WPX, and XEC Large-cap defined as >$10 billion of market capitalization; SMID-cap defined as <$10 billion of market capitalization 14
15 Cabot s 2019 Program Delivers Peer-Leading Returns 2019E Return on 2019E Capital ROCE Employed (ROCE) 23% Peer SMID-Cap A Diversified Peer Large-Cap C Diversified Peer Large-Cap D Permian SMID-Cap Peer F Appalachia 10% 10% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% COG Peer A Peer B Peer C Peer D Peer E Peer F Peer G Peer H Peer I Peer J Peer K Peer L Peer Mcash Peer flow N~7% Peer free O Peer P free 2019E Return on Equity (ROE) flow yield cash 1,2 flow 37% 32% 15% 13% 11% 10% 9% 6% 6% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 0% Peer B COG Peer A Peer F Peer E Peer C Peer D Peer H Peer G Peer I Peer K Peer M Peer J Peer L Peer N Peer O Peer P (0%) Source: Company filings; FactSet median consensus estimates as of March 18, ROCE calculated as Net Income plus tax-adjusted Interest Expense divided by the sum of Total Debt and Stockholders Equity. Assumes a 21% tax rate for tax-adjusted interest expense. Return on Equity calculated as Net Income divided by Stockholders Equity. Peers include: APA, AR, CHK, CLR, CXO, DVN, ECA, EQT, MRO, MUR, NBL, PXD, RRC, SWN, WPX, and XEC Large-cap defined as >$10 billion of market capitalization; SMID-cap defined as <$10 billion of market capitalization 15
16 in addition to Top-Tier Earnings Per Share Growth and Free Cash Flow Yield E Earnings Per Share Growth 217% 64% SMID-Cap Peer J Diversified Peer Large-Cap G Diversified Peer Large-Cap D Permian SMID-Cap Peer N Appalachia 18% 9% 7% (10%) (22%) (25%) (25%) (30%) (34%) (40%) (44%) (53%) (60%) (88%) (100%) Peer J COG Peer G Peer D Peer H Peer I Peer N Peer E Peer A Peer C Peer M Peer F Peer B Peer L cash Peer flow K Peer O Peer P 2019E Free Cash Flow Yield free flow yield cash 1,2 flow 7% yield 5% 1,2 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 0% (0%) (1%) (3%) (6%) (8%) COG Peer G Peer K Peer C Peer M Peer N Peer H Peer E Peer L Peer A Peer I Peer J Peer D Peer O Peer P Peer B Peer F Source: Company filings; FactSet median consensus estimates as of March 18, The calculation for E EPS growth utilizes "adjusted EPS" from continuing operations for 2018 actuals. Free Cash Flow Yield calculated as Cash From Operations less Capital Expenditures divided by Market Capitalization. Peers include: APA, AR, CHK, CLR, CXO, DVN, ECA, EQT, MRO, MUR, NBL, PXD, RRC, SWN, WPX, and XEC Large-cap defined as >$10 billion of market capitalization; SMID-cap defined as <$10 billion of market capitalization 16
17 Between $2.50 and $3.00 NYMEX, Cabot Delivers Financial Metrics that Meet or Exceed the Broader Market Implied 2019 NYMEX Price Based on Current Futures: $ % 22.0% 20.0% 19.5% 2019E Return on Capital Employed E Earnings Per Share Growth % 14.8% 14.3% 12.1% 11.7% 11.7% 47.5% 67.5% 6.8% 27.5% 9.7% 7.6% 7.3% 7.1% 6.7% 3.2% 2.6% (8.3%) 4.6% 5.7% 6.6% 2019E Free Cash Flow Yield 2 flow free Price flow / 2019E yield cash 1,2 Earnings flow Per Share 2 6.0% 5.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 4.7% 4.2% 17.1x 16.2x 16.9x 17.0x 17.5x 14.8x 13.0x 19.3x 19.4x 19.6x 20.0x Source: FactSet median consensus estimates as of March 18, ROCE calculated as Net Income plus tax-adjusted Interest Expense divided by the sum of Total Debt and Stockholders Equity. Assumes a 21% tax rate for tax-adjusted interest expense. Free Cash Flow Yield calculated as Cash From Operations less Capital Expenditures divided by Market Capitalization. 1 As of 3/21/2019, includes actual settlement prices for January, February and March 2 Metrics for COG are based on the midpoint of guidance ranges. Metrics for S&P sectors are based on the median of each respective sector. 17
18 Appendix
19 2019 Guidance 2019 Guidance Full-year 2019E daily production growth guidance: 20% (27% per debt-adjusted share 1 ) Q1 2019E production guidance: 2,250 2,275 Mmcfe/d 2019E total program spending: $800 million 2019E weighted-average natural gas price differential 2 : ($0.30) per Mcf 2019E Marcellus Shale wells drilled and completed: net wells 2019E Marcellus Shale wells placed on production: net wells 2019E income tax rate guidance: 23% - 24% 2019E deferred tax rate guidance: 100% Q1 and FY 2019E Natural Gas Price Exposure By Index Q1 2019E FY 2019E NYMEX (less $0.30 / $0.30) 31% 26% Transco Z6 NNY (less $0.65) 18% 17% Fixed Price ($3.40 / $3.10) 19% 16% TGP Z4 300 Leg 11% 15% Leidy Line 7% 10% Power Pricing 8% 8% Dominion 6% 6% Millennium 0% 2% Note: Fixed price percentages above free include yield volumes 1,2 cash associated flow with free sales cash agreements that flow have yield cash floor 1,2 flow prices. An additional yield deduct 1,2 of ~$0.05 flow per yield Mcf free 1,2 should be applied to yield account 1,2 for fuel use. yieldfy 1,2 2019E Cost Assumptions ($/Mcfe, unless otherwise noted) Direct operations $ $0.09 Transportation and gathering $ $0.68 Taxes other than income $ $0.03 Depreciation, depletion and amortization $ $0.48 Interest expense $ $0.08 Exploration 3 $ $0.03 General and administrative ($mm) 4 $62 - $66 (1) Debt-adjusted share count is calculated as the sum of the annual weighted average shares outstanding plus the incremental debt shares by dividing average total debt by the average annual share price (2) Based on forward curves as of 2/20/2019 (3) Excluding exploratory dry hole costs; includes exploration administration expense and geophysical expenses (4) Excluding stock-based compensation 19
20 2019 Hedge Summary Total Swaps Basis Swaps Pricing Index Mmbtu Weighted-Average Weighted-Average Q Transco Zone 6 NNY 2,700,000 $0.41 Transco Zone 6 NNY 11,700,000 $7.38 Leidy 13,500,000 ($0.53) LDS NYMEX 4,500,000 $4.31 LDS NYMEX 27,000,000 $4.11 Q Transco Zone 6 NNY 2,730,000 $0.41 Leidy 13,650,000 cash ($0.53) flow LDS NYMEX 22,750,000 $2.83 free LDS NYMEX 27,300,000 $2.79 flow yield cash 1,2 flow Q flow yield free 1,2 Transco Zone 6 NNY 2,760,000 $0.41 Leidy 13,800,000 ($0.53) LDS NYMEX 23,000,000 $2.83 LDS NYMEX 27,600,000 $2.78 Q Transco Zone 6 NNY 2,760,000 $0.41 Leidy 13,800,000 ($0.53) LDS NYMEX 7,750,000 $2.83 LDS NYMEX 27,600,000 $2.86 Note: As of February 21,
21 Financial Position and Risk Management Profile Debt Maturity Schedule ($mm) as of 12/31/2018 $600 $500 $400 Senior Notes Revolving Credit Facility $300 $200 $100 $0 As of 12/31/2018 $94 $188 $62 flow yield free 1,2 $575 free flow yield cash 1,2 flow $ Capitalization / Liquidity Cash and Cash Equivalents $0.0 Debt $1.2 Net Debt $1.2 Net Capitalization $3.3 Liquidity $1.8 Net Debt / Capitalization 37.0% Net Debt / LTM EBITDAX 1.0x $bn 21
22 Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Earnings Per Share flow yield free 1,2 free flow yield cash 1,2 flow 22
23 EBITDAX Calculation and Reconciliation flow yield free 1,2 free flow yield cash 1,2 flow 23
24 Net Debt Reconciliation flow yield free 1,2 free flow yield cash 1,2 flow 24
25 Discretionary Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow Calculation and Reconciliation flow yield free 1,2 free flow yield cash 1,2 flow 25
26 Return on Capital Employed Calculation flow yield free 1,2 free flow yield cash 1,2 flow 26
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