Financing Options in an Uncertain World. Chris Mier Municipal Strategist April 12, 2011
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1 International Bridge, Tunnel and Turnpike Association (IBTTA) Presentation Financing Options in an Uncertain World Chris Mier Municipal Strategist April 12, 2011 Hyatt Regency, Jersey City F
2 Ability of the Tax Exempt Market to Absorb Volume without BABs We have a good sense of supply, but what has happened to demand? 30, Day Visible Supply ($ Million) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Price (Low Yield) S 1 S 0 D 0 D 1 Lower Yields Volume 2
3 Forecasts of Municipal Volume for 2011 Most forecasts at between $325 and $375 billion Why did we miss it by so much? 3
4 Ten Years of Volume Q1 NEW ISSUE VOLUME ($ Billion) Q1 clearly not simpatico with history, but why? 4
5 The Political Milieu Issuers strike reflects new political reality of Less, not More 5
6 18 Weeks of Redemptions 8.00 Weekly Muni Mutual Fund Inflows ($ Billion) Fund flows are out of muni bond funds and into equity funds This suggests that demand will be lower for a reasonable length of time (asset re-allocation) 6
7 Ratios 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 10 Year Muni/Treasury Ratio Cheap and likely to stay that way 7
8 Outlook Liquidity will be there for the best rated issuers Liquidity cannot be guaranteed 8
9 Loop Capital Markets Disclaimer Loop Capital Markets LLC, an in vestm en t ban k, prepared th is docum en t for in form ation al purposes on ly. Loop Capital Markets LLC does not provide research services, therefore th is product is not a research report an d it should not be construed as such. All m aterials, including proposed term s an d con dition s, are indicative and for discussion purposes only. Finalized terms and conditions are subject to further discussion and negotiation an d will be eviden ced by a formal agreement. Opinions expressed are our presen t opin ion s on ly an d are subject to ch an ge with out furth er n otice. Th e inform ation con tain ed h erein is con fiden tial. 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The fact that Loop Capital Markets LLC has made the materials or any other materials available to you constitutes neither a recommendation that you enter in to or m ain tain a particular transaction or position n or a represen tation th at an y tran saction is suitable or appropriate for you Tran saction s in volving derivative or other products m ay involve sign ificant risk and you sh ould not enter in to any transaction ti unless you fully understand d all such risks an d h ave in depen den tly determ in ed th at such transaction is appropriate for you. Loop Capital Markets LLC is actin g in th e capacity of an arm s-length contractual counterparty to the user in connection with any transaction Loop Capital Markets LLC may enter into with the user and not as a fin an cial advisor or a fiduciary. Th is docum en t is confiden tial, an d n o part of it m ay be reproduced, distributed or tran sm itted with out th e prior written perm ission of Loop Capital Markets LLC. 9
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