NiveshDaily. From Research Desk. Concall Updates. Coromandel International Ltd (COIL) Result Preview

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1 NiveshDaily January 27, 2016 Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research Tel: From Research Desk Concall Updates Coromandel International Ltd (COIL) Result Preview Godrej Consumer Products Ltd Rating: NR Target: NR KPR Mills Rating: BUY Target: 1059/ Kajaria Ceramics Ltd Rating: HOLD Target: Rs952/ Power Grid Rating Buy Target: Rs. 187/ Result Update HDFC Bank Swaraj Engines Ltd.(SEL) Majesco Ltd (NYSE: MJCO) Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB) Global Markets Outlook IndiaNivesh Research IndiaNivesh Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration No. INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022) IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.

2 Coromandel International Ltd (COIL) Below Expectation performance; Maintain BUY but downward revision TP of Rs.222 from Rs.304 Q3FY16 Concall Update January 27, 2016 Current CMP : Rs.165 Rating : BUY Target : Rs.222 Previous Rating : BUY Target : Rs.304 Rs.mn Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 Q o Q % Y o Y % INSL Est. Variance(%) Comments Revenue 27,696 35,889 29, % 6.9% 31, % Below Est EBIDTA 1,795 3,381 2, % 24.6% 2, % Below Est PAT 804 1,735 1, % 33.4% 1, % Below Est Source: Company Filing; IndiaNivesh Research Coromandel International Ltd (COIL) Q3FY16 performance was significantly below our estimates on all front. Revenue went down 6.9% Y/Y to Rs.27.6 bn (v/s INSL est. Rs.31.9bn). Fertilizer segment contributed 82% and Non subsidy business contributed 18% of the total revenue (as % of Sales). (Rs Mn) Q3FY16 Q3FY15 Y/Y % Fertilizer 22,711 24, % Non Fertilizer 4,985 5, % Total 27,696 29, % Source: Company Filing; IndiaNivesh Research EBITDA (including other income) went down 24.6% Y/Y to Rs 1,795 mn (INSL Est. Rs 2,545 mn) translating to margin contraction of 150 bps Y/Y (to 6.5% v/s 8.0% in Q3FY15). The contraction in EBITDA margin was due to lower volume aided by decline in manufactured NPK/DAP volume. During the quarter, COIL reported exceptional gain of Rs.250 mn related to insurance claim for Hudhud cyclone in Vishakapatnam unit. The company s interest and depreciation expenditure stood at Rs.542/Rs.247 mn (v/s Rs.446/Rs.256 mn in Q3FY15), respectively. The company reported tax expenditure of Rs.453 mn leading to tax rate of 36% (v/s 30% in Q3FY15). Net profit went down 33.4% Y/Y to Rs 804 mn (v/s INSL est. of Rs.1,323 mn) led by lower EBITDA base. Adj. net profit (exl exceptional benefit) declined by 55.6% y/y to Rs.554 mn (v/s Rs.1246 mn in Q3FY15). The consolidated numbers include Coromandel International, Sabero Organics, and Liberty Phosphate. Going ahead management do not expect any revenue loss due to short supply of key raw material (Phosphoric acid), as utilization level for Foskor (South Africa) and Tifert (Tunisia) is improving. Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research Tel: daljeet.kohli@indianivesh.in Amar Mourya Research Analyst Tel: amar.mourya@indianivesh.in IndiaNivesh Research IndiaNivesh Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration No. INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022) IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.

3 Q3FY16 Concall Update (contd...) Quarterly Analysis (Conso) (Rs Mn) Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 Q/Q % Y/Y % Total Income 27,696 35,889 29, Raw Materials 22,261 28,404 26, Less: Stock Adjustments 959 1,330 3, Employee Cost Other Manufacturing Expenses 3,850 4,710 3, Total Operating Exp 25,902 32,508 27, EBITDA 1,795 3,381 2, Margin % 6.5% 9.4% 8.0% Exceptional Items NM NM Interest Depreciation Profit Before Tax 1,256 2,603 1, Margin % 4.5% 7.3% 5.5% Total Tax Tax Rate % 36.0% 33.4% 29.7% Net Profit 804 1,735 1, Margin % 2.9% 4.8% 3.9% Minority Interest (after tax) 55 NM NM Net Profit to Equity Shareholder 804 1,735 1, Margin % 2.9% 4.8% 4.1% EPS O/shares Source: Company Filing; IndiaNivesh Research Key Conference Call Take Away COIL s reported 8.1% y/y decline in total fertilizer volume to 0.94 mn tonnes (v/s 1.03 mn tonnes in Q3FY15). The key dragger ( 16.7% Y/Y) for complex fertilizer volume was NPK (down 20.5% Y/Y), MoP (down 27.9% Y/Y), and SSP (down 56.3% Y/Y), partially offset by 13.3% Y/Y increase in DAP volume. During the quarter, Urea volume went up 15.1% Y/Y to 0.32 mn tonnes. Volume (000'T) FY12 FY13 Q4FY15 FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Y/Y Ch % DAP mfg % Dap imp % DAP Total % Other NPK mfg % Other NPK imp % Other NPK total % MOP % SSP % Complex total % Urea % Fertilisers total , % Mfg (%) in DAP+NPK 87% 81% 99% 97% 99% 91% 90% 95% 93% 75% 87% 89% 1.1% Source: Company Filing; IndiaNivesh Research COIL reported 152 bps Y/Y contraction in EBITDA margin due to lower revenue base and change in revenue mix. During the quarter, the company s manufactured volume declined followed by decline in overall volume (Lower Economies of Scale). The only solace was increase in non subsidised business (Sabero ~35% of total EBITDA) EBITDA margin from 12% to 18% on back of decline in ammonia price, softening gas prices and currency tail wind. The total Non Subsidy business contributed 45% to the total EBITDA. (contd...) January 27,

4 Q3FY16 Concall Update (contd...) We reduce our EBITDA margin estimate to 6.7%/7.2% (v/s 8.2%/8.7%) in FY16E/FY17E, respectively on back of 9MFY16E performance. Chart: Cost Break up (As % of Rev) Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 Q/Q % Y/Y % Material Expenses Employee Expenses Traded Goods Others Expenses EBITDA Margin Source: Company Filing; IndiaNivesh Research According to the company s management complex fertiliser inventory increased in the system to 4.5 mn tonnes in 9MFY16 to 3.4 mn tonnes in FY15. Meaning access inventory position on c2.3 mn tonnes has to be liquidated from the system. In our view, normal Rabi Crop followed by Kharif Crop could deplete the inventory in the system and boost overall sales volumes going ahead. Additionally, the company s initiatives to improve working capital cycle along with timely payment of government subsidy could lead to expansion in return on capital employed (ROCE) going ahead. Industry Wide Inventory Position Inventory 4.5 FY14 FY15 9MFY16 Source: Company Filing; IndiaNivesh Research Valuations At CMP of Rs.165, the stock is trading at revised EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.5x FY16E and 6.8x FY17E. We remain positive on Coromandel due to (1) expanded capacity and distribution network after acquisition of Liberty Phosphate, (2) Pick in Sabero s utilization level, (3) strong growth in non subsidy business, and (4) expected rise in shares of manufactured fertilizers. The sharp depreciation in Brazilian currency and delay in monsoon could impact the performance. Given the below expected 9MFY16 performance, we reduce our FY16E/FY17E estimates. As a result, we reduce our TP to Rs.222 (8.5x FY17E EV/EBITDA) from Rs.304 on COIL. Given the 34% upside from revised TP, we continue to maintain BUY on the stock. FY16E % FY17E % Change in Estimate OLD NEW Ch OLD NEW Ch Sales 1,22,685 1,13, % 1,32,987 1,25, % EBITDA 10,060 7, % 11,570 9, % PAT 4,686 3, % 5,899 4, % EPS % % (contd...) January 27,

5 Q3FY16 Concall Update (contd...) Financial Statements: Income statement Balance sheet Y E March (Rs m) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e Y E March (Rs m) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e Net sales 91,038 1,01,140 1,13,630 1,13,159 1,25,939 Share Capital Growth % Reserves & Surplus 21,683 22,529 21,729 23,907 26,935 Net Worth 21,966 22,812 22,020 24,191 27,219 COGS 73,166 77,511 89,004 96,751 1,07,048 Minority SG&A 9,492 14,969 15,526 8,826 9,823 Long term loans EBITDA 8,380 8,660 9,101 7,582 9,068 Others Growth % Total Liabilities 52,486 42,329 43,550 45,253 44,918 EBITDA Margin % Gross Block 25,960 26,442 23,755 34,132 34,042 Deprecaition ,046 1,132 1,259 Less Depreciation 7,397 8,358 9,494 10,626 11,885 EBIT 7,669 7,699 8,055 6,450 7,808 Net Block 18,563 18,085 14,261 23,507 22,157 EBIT Margin % Capital Work in Progress Investments 1,597 4, ,674 1,708 Interest Defered tax (net) Other Income 126 Other non current assets 527 PBT 5,567 5,171 5,959 4,344 6,038 Tax 1,231 1,521 1,902 1,303 1,811 Current Assets 58,745 53,771 65,145 50,305 56,170 Effective tax rate % Sundry Debtors 18,201 14,835 14,464 13,402 12,944 Inventories Adjusted PAT 4,337 3,649 4,057 3,041 4,227 Cash & Bank Balance 5,346 4,722 3,176 4,243 3,841 Growth% Loans & advances 20,423 16,686 24,913 17,917 23,439 Minority Interest Current Liabilities 27,462 27,081 37,133 31,501 34,817 Reported PAT 4,320 3,565 4,018 3,026 4,206 Provisions 1,808 6,826 1, RPAT Margin % Net Current Assets 29,475 19,863 26,953 18,197 20,544 Growth% Total assets 52,486 42,329 43,550 45,253 44,918 Source:Company filings; IndiaNivesh Research Source:Company filings; IndiaNivesh Research Cash Flow Key Ratios Y E March (Rs m) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e Y E March FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e PBT 5,567 5,087 5,848 4,322 6,016 EPS (Rs) Depreciation ,136 1,132 1,259 Cash EPS (Rs) Interest Exp 1,521 2,403 2,096 2,106 1,770 DPS (Rs) Changes in Working Capital 3,260 11,042 14,019 9, BVPS Cash Flow After Changes in WC 11,060 19,492 4,939 16,900 10,026 ROCE % Tax 1,207 1,521 1,902 1,303 1,811 ROE % Others EBITDA Margin % Cash flow from operations 9,853 17,971 6,841 15,597 8,215 Net Margin % Capital expenditure (net) 2,585 3,719 2,687 10,377 2,296 PER (x) 11.4x 17.1x 16.3x 15.5x 11.1x Free Cash Flow 7,268 21,689 4,154 5,219 5,919 P/BV (x) 2.2x 2.7x 3.0x 1.9x 1.7x Other income 1, P/CEPS (x) 9.8x 13.5x 12.9x 11.3x 8.6x Investments 2,282 2,595 3,732 1, EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7x 8.7x 9.1x 8.5x 6.8x Cash flow from investments 6,385 1,123 6,420 11,591 2,330 Dividend Yield % Proceeds from Issue of shares (incl Share Pr) Dividend Payout % Proceed from Borrowings m cap/sales (x) 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x 0.4x 0.4x Interest Paid 696 2,403 2,096 2,106 1,770 net debt/equity (x) 1.1x 0.6x 0.8x 0.7x 0.5x Dividend paid (incl tax) 1, , ,178 net debt/ebitda (x) 2.9x 1.6x 2.0x 2.2x 1.5x Others Debtors (Days) Cash flow from Financing 7,969 19,719 1,176 2,939 6,309 Inventory (Days) Net change in cash 4, ,597 1, Creditors (Days) Cash at the beginning of the year 9,847 5,346 4,774 3,176 4,243 Cash Conversion Cycle (Days) Cash at the end of the year 5,346 4,722 3,176 4,243 3,841 Source:Company filings; IndiaNivesh Research Source:Company filings; IndiaNivesh Research (contd...) January 27,

6 Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research Tel: Prerna Jhunjhunwala Research Analyst Tel: Result Preview Godrej Consumer Products Ltd Rating: NR Target: NR (Rs Mn) Bloom Actual Actual Growth Particulars (Rs Mn) Q3FY16E Q1FY16 Q2FY15 QoQ % YoY % Sales 24,298 22,424 22, EBITDA 4,613 4,073 3, PAT 3,211 2,872 2, Adj. PAT 3,229 2,784 2, Margin (%) Chg (bps) EBITDA % 19.0% 18.2% 17.9% PAT % 13.2% 12.8% 11.8% Company, Bloomberg Source: Godrej Consumer Products Ltd is likely to report consolidated net sales growth of 9.2% yoy to reach Rs mn in Q3FY16E against Rs mn in Q3FY15. This is likely to be driven by domestic business due to favourable environment for household Insecticides segment. EBITDA margin is likely to expand 108 bps yoy to reach 19% due to favourable raw material scenario (palm oil and crude oil prices declined ~18% yoy and ~41% yoy respectively). Adj. PAT is likely to grow 23.2% yoy to reach Rs 3229 mn in Q3FY16E due to higher EBITDA growth and lower interest cost. Key Factors to watch: Performance of household insecticides business, advertisement cost, new launches and profitability in international business Valuation At CMP of Rs 1150, the stock trades at PE of 34.2x and 28.7x its FY16E and FY17E Bloomberg consensus earnings estimate. We like the company strategy to expand in new geographies and innovate to create leadership position in its categories. We do not have any rating on the stock.

7 Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research Tel: Prerna Jhunjhunwala Research Analyst Tel: KPR Mills Rating: BUY Target: 1059 Particulars (Rs Mn) Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 QoQ (%) YoY(%) Net Sales EBITDA PAT EPS Margin (%) Bps Chg EBITDA PAT KPR Mills is likely to report consolidated net sales growth of 5.9% yoy in Q3FY16E driven by higher textiles segment. Higher share of value added products including fabric and garments in revenue mix and lower cotton prices (~3% yoy on average) is likely to result in higher EBITDA margin of 16.7% in Q3FY16E vs. 14.5% in Q3FY15. EBITDA is likely to grow at 22% yoy to reach Rs 1057 mn. PAT is likely to grow at 37.2% yoy to reach Rs 580 mn in Q3FY16E from Rs 422 mn in Q3FY15 due to relatively lower growth in interest and depreciation cost. Key factors to watch: Average realisation of various products and profitability of both the segments Valuation At CMP of Rs 758, the stock trades at PE of 12x and 8.6x its FY16E and FY17E earnings of Rs 63.2 and Rs 88 per share. The vertically integrated facilities help create cushion for the company in the event of cotton price volatility. Its green power sourcing provides an advantage over peers who are using grid as their source. We maintain BUY rating on the stock with target price of Rs 1059 per share. Prerna Jhunjhunwala Research Analyst Tel: Kajaria Ceramics Ltd Rating: HOLD Target: Rs952/ Particulars (Rs Mn) Q3FY16E Q2FY16 Q3FY15 QoQ (%) YoY(%) Net Sales EBITDA PAT Adj. PAT Adj. EPS Margin (%) Bps Chg EBITDA Adj. PAT ; Consolidated numbers Kajaria Ceramics is likely to report consolidated net sales of Rs6285 mn, implying growth of 13.5% yoy. We expect volume growth of 9.7% yoy in Q3FY16E. Revenue share of own capacity is likely to reduce to 48.6% in Q3FY16E from 49.5% in Q3FY15. EBITDA is likely to reach Rs1100mn against Rs851mn in Q3FY15. EBITDA margin is likely to improve 213 bps yoy to reach 17.5%due to expected higher proportion of vitrified tiles and lower power cost, despite higher share of revenue from joint venture / subsidiary. PAT is likely to reach Rs581mn in Q3FY16E against Rs456 mn in Q3FY15, implying 27.3% yoygrowth. Key things to watch Volume growth Status of capacity expansion At CMP of Rs 972, the stock trades at PE of 32.4x and 25.5x its FY16E and FY17E earnings of Rs 30 and Rs 38.1 per share respectively. We maintain HOLD rating with target price of Rs 952 per share (valuing the stock at 25x FY17E earnings estimate).

8 Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research Tel: Abhishek Jain Research Analyst Tel: Power Grid: Rating Buy: Target price Rs. 187 Rs. Mn Q3FY16e Q2FY16 Q3FY15 Q o Q % Y o Y % Revenue 52,243 49,180 43, EBIDTA 45,451 43,180 37, PAT 14,670 14,480 12, EPS (RS.) Margin % EBITDA % BPS PAT % Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research We forecast, top line to increase by 20% YoY on the back of expected commissioning of the Rs. 80bn line connecting North East to Agra. EBITDA margin is likely to go up by 41 bps YoY basis due to higher top line. Bottom line is expected to suppress due to forex loss along with higher depreciation and interest cost. Key points to watch out Capitalization of Assets Valuation With the rising capex lined up for transmission, we are optimistic about the future growth prospects of PGCIL. At CMP Rs 133 PGCIL is trading 1.3xFY17E BV. We maintain buy rating on the stock with target price of Rs. 187(2x FY17e BV).

9 HDFC Bank Stable performance continues maintain buy with target price of Rs 1264 Q3FY16 Result Updates January 27, 2016 Current CMP : Rs.1041 Rating : BUY Target : Rs.1264 Previous Rating : BUY Target : Rs.1264 HDFC Bank s Q3FY16 results were slightly ahead of expectation with Net Interest Income of Rs 70.7 bn (vs exp of Rs 68.3 bn) led by higher growth in retail segment (up 30% yoy). Overall loan growth remains strong at 26% yoy. Operating profit grew by 20% yoy to Rs 57.4 bn (vs exp of Rs 54.7 bn) led by better Non interest income of Rs 28.7 bn. Despite 17% yoy increase in provisioning expense, Net Profit at Rs 33.6 bn was ahead of expectation. Asset quality (in terms of %) was stable at 1% Gross and 0.3% Net NPAs. However in absolute terms, both have increased by 11 21% qoq. Our earnings estimates largely remain unchanged both for FY16E and FY17E. Valuation at 3.7x and 3.2x for FY16E and FY17E respectively remains reasonable. Hence continue to maintain buy with target price of Rs Highlight it as top pick in large private sector banking space. Rs.mn Q3FY16 Q3FY15 Q2FY16 Q o Q % Y o Y % Q3FY16E Variance(%) Net Interest Income Pre Provision Profit Net Profit Source: IndiaNivesh Research Result update: Loan growth remains healthy HDFC Bank continues its healthy growth momentum with 26% yoy growth in loan book. Domestic retail advances grew by 26% yoy with 21% growth in wholesale book and 30% growth in retail loan book. All the segments of retail loans have delivered healthy growth baring Loan against securities. Further the bank is very aggressive in riskers segment of retail segment which is Personal loans and Credit card. Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research Tel: daljeet.kohli@indianivesh.in Yogesh Hotwani Research Analyst Tel: yogesh.hotwani@indianivesh.in Loan book (Rs bn) % of total Q3FY16 Q3FY15 % YoY Q2FY16 % QoQ Overseas Domestic Wholesale Retail Auto CV/CE Two Wheelers Personal Loans Business Banking Loans against securitie Credit Cards Home Loans Gold Loans Kisan Gold Card Others Total CASA ratio improved marginally by 26 bps qoq to 40%. Current deposits grew by 30% yoy while saving deposits grew by 21% yoy. IndiaNivesh Research IndiaNivesh Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration No. INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022) IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.

10 Q3FY16 Result Update (contd...) Deposits mix (Rs bn): Q3FY16 Q3FY15 % YoY Q2FY16 % QoQ CASA (%) bps bps CASA Current Deposits Saving Deposits Term Deposits Total Deposits NIMs surprised positively: NIMs (rep) of HDFC Bank surprised positively as it improved by 10 bps qoq to 4.3% as against expectation of 10 bps qoq decline on back of cut in base rate. This is led by higher growth in retail segment which is high yielding compared to wholesale financing. Further yield on investments (Calc) have shown an increase of 35 bps qoq to 8.3%. Yields/Costs/Margins (%) Q3FY16 Q3FY15 YoY bps Q2FY16 QoQ bps NIM NIM* Cost of Funds* Yield on Advances* Yield on Investments* Yield on Funds* Source: *Calculated numbers Fee income lower while Investment / Misc Income were higher: Non interest income of HDFC Bank grew by 13% yoy largely led by 24% yoy increase in investment income and 25% yoy in Misc Income. Fee income was lower at 11% yoy. Breakup of Other income (Rs mn) Q3FY16 Q3FY15 % YoY Q2FY16 % QoQ Fee & Comm Forex & Derivative Revenue Sale of Investments/Gain on reval Misc. Income Total Other Income Asset quality broadly stable: Asset quality of HDFC Bank continues to remain stable at 1% Gross NPA and 0.3% Net NPA. However in absolute terms, there was increase of 11% and 22% qoq to Rs 42.5 and Rs 12.6 bn respectively. As a result, Provision coverage ratio has come down to 70.4%, lower by 252 bps on qoq. Restructured loan ratio was stable at 0.1%. Further bank has not done any refinancing under 5/25 scheme or SDR during Q3FY16. Management specified that fresh slippages during Q3FY16 has largely come from retail segment (mainly in Agri, Business banking and Credit card) while wholesale segment was largely stable. Gross/Net NPA (Rs mn) Q3FY16 Q3FY15 % YoY Q2FY16 % QoQ Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA (%) bps 0.9 6bps Net NPA (%) bps 0.3 4bps PCR (%) bps bps (contd...) January 27,

11 Q3FY16 Result Update (contd...) Valuation: HDFC Bank continues its healthy and consistent show on all fronts with strong loan growth, stable NIMs and best in class asset quality. We believe HDFC bank will continue to maintain its loan growth momentum at CAGR of 22% for FY15 17E and net profit CAGR of 21% over the same period. Another positive is higher capital adequacy and healthy provision coverage which drives more comfort. At CMP of Rs 1041, HDFC bank is trading at P/ABV of 3.7x and 3.2x for FY16E and FY17E respectively. We continue to maintain buy with target price of Rs 1264, valuing it at 3.8x FY17E ABV. Highlight it as top pick in large cap banking space. Rs mn Q3FY16 Q3FY15 % YoY Q2FY16 % QoQ 9MFY16 9MFY15 % YoY Interest Income Interest Expense Net Interest Income Non Interest Income Net Income Total Income Total Expenses Pre Provisioning Profit Provisions Profit Before Tax Tax Net Profit EPS (Rs) Advances Deposits Total Business Assets Gross NPA Net NPA Key Ratios (%) bps bps NIM Cost of Funds Yield on Advances Yield on Investments Yield on Funds Cost to Income Ratio CASA CAR Tier I Capital Credit to Deposit GNPA NNPA Provision Coverage Ratio ROE ROA (contd...) January 27,

12 Swaraj Engines Ltd.(SEL) Numbers below estimates, Changing rating to HOLD with revised TP of Rs.946 Q3FY16 Result Update January 27, 2016 Current Previous CMP : Rs. 891 Rating : HOLD Rating : BUY Target : Rs.946 Target : Rs. 1,190 STOCK INFO Co. Name Bse Nse SWARAJENG Bloomberg SWE IN Reuters SWAR.BO Sector Engines Index S&P BSE SmallCap Face Value (Re) 10 Equity Capital (Rs Mn) 124 Mkt Cap (Rs Mn) 10,787 52w H/L (Rs) 1033/745 Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE) 9,088 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN % (as on Dec. 2015) Institutions Others, Incl Public Promoters Source: BSE STOCK PER. (%) 1m 3m 12m SWARAJ 6.2% 3.9% 7.2% SENSEX 5.2% 10.9% 17.2% Source: Capitaline, IndiaNivesh Research SWARAJ v/s SENSEX /01/ /01/ /01/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /09/ /09/ /08/ /08/ /08/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /05/ /05/ /05/ /04/ /04/ /03/ /03/ /03/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /01/2015 Swaraj Sensex Source: Capitaline, IndiaNivesh Research SEL Q3FY16 numbers were below our estimates. The company witnessed 3% YoY increase in Revenue to Rs 1056 mn (way below our expectation of Rs 1493 mn) mainly on account of Company s engines sales volume increasing by only 5.7% YoY to units vs our expectation of units. Average realization declined by 1.8% YoY at Rs per unit. On operational front, EBITDA margins expanded 43 bps YoY to 12.1% due to lower employee and lower other expenses. Net profit was up 1% YoY to Rs 84 mn (vs. our expectation of Rs. 149 mn) due to lower than expected volumes. The company s expansion plan to increase the capacity to engines per annum (current capacity is units) is in progress and is expected to be completed in the current calendar year. Rs.mn Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 Q o Q % Y o Y % INSL Q3FY16e Variance(% Revenue EBIDTA PAT Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research Cutting EPS estimate of FY16E and FY17E After the slowdown in tractor sales for last 3 quarters and bleak agricultural outlook given by ICRA and CRSIL for next year as well, we cut our revenue estimates by 8.3% and 20% for FY16E and FY17E respectively. We also cut our EBITDA margins by 20bps and 10bps for FY16E and FY17E respectively. We reduce our earnings estimates for FY16 EPS by 9.6% and FY17E by 20.5% to build in the effect of slowdown in rural economy and change our rating from BUY to HOLD with revised target price of Rs946 (16x FY17e) vs Rs 1190 earlier. Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research Tel: daljeet.kohli@indianivesh.in Abhishek Jain Research Analyst Tel: abhishek.jain@indianivesh.in Aman Vij Research Analyst Tel: aman.vij@indianivesh.in Quick Fundamentals(Rs. mn) FY16E FY17E New Old Change(%) New Old Change(%) Revenue EBITDA EBITDA Margin 14.58% 14.78% 20 bps 15.18% 15.28% 10 bps PAT EPS (Rs) Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research Valuation and Outlook The company used to manufacture and supply almost 20,000 engines per quarter to M&M which sharply dropped to around 12,000 in H2 FY15, as a result the stock also dropped from close to a high of almost Rs 1100 to Rs We expect the volumes to recover gradually and volumes from new capacity to come from FY17 onwards. We believe that long term structural story remains intact with acceleration in the pace of mechanization of Indian agriculture. However demand is likely to remain weak in near term due to the stress in rural economy. At CMP of Rs. 891 Swaraj Engines is trading at PE of 15.1x FY17e EPS. We change our rating to HOLD rating with target price of Rs. 946 (16xFY17E) vs Rs 1190 earlier. IndiaNivesh Research IndiaNivesh Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration No. INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022) IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.

13 Q3FY16 Result Update (contd...) Quick Fundamentals (Rs. Mn) Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 QoQ % YoY % 9mFY16 9mFY15 YoY% Revenue (31) % Cost of Revenues (29) % Raw Materials (30) % Employee Expenses (11) (4) % Other Expenditure (25) % EBIDTA (43.9) % Depreciation (12) (3) % EBIT (50) % Interest Expense % Exceptional Item Other income % PBT (43) (47) % Tax (36) % PAT (46) % EPS (RS.) (46) % Margin % Basis Points (BPS) BPS EBITDA (276) (7) EBIT (344) (24) PBT (259) (1206) (6) PAT (222) (19) (41) Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research Raw material prices increased 24 bps YoY (as a percentage of revenue) to 75.8% from 75.6% in Q3FY16. Employee expense decreased by 58 bps YoY to 7.1% (as a percentage of revenue) while other expenditure decreased by 9bps YoY to 5% (as a percentage of revenue) which resulted in EBITDA margins to expand by 43 bps YoY) to 12.1%. Cost Analysis (% of Revenue) Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 bps QoQ bps YoY 9mFY16 9mFY15 bps YoY Raw Materials (Adj.) 75.8% 75.1% 75.6% % 76.0% 45 Employee Expenses 7.1% 5.5% 7.7% % 5.4% 48 Other Expenses 5.0% 4.6% 5.1% % 4.6% 5 Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research Net Sales expected to grow at CAGR of 12.8% from FY15 FY17E Going forward we expect Net sales to grow at CAGR of 12.8% because of capacity addition from to by end of FY17. The volumes from increased capacity should start coming from next year. Net Sales and Net Sales Growth Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Securities Swaraj Engines Ltd. (contd...) January 27,

14 Q3FY16 Result Update (contd...) Margins to improve hereon on back of operating leverage coming in from added capacity EBITDA margins are likely to come around 14.6% in FY16E (after falling in FY15 due to dismal performance in H2FY15) and then gradually improve to 15.2% in FY17E. EBITDA and EBITDA Margin Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Securities Valuation We believe that long term structural story remains intact with acceleration in the pace of mechanization of Indian agriculture. We expect the volumes to recover gradually and volumes from new capacity to come from FY17 onwards. However demand is likely to remain weak in near term due to the stress in rural economy. At CMP of Rs. 891 Swaraj Engines is trading at PE of 15.1x FY17e EPS. We change our rating to HOLD rating with target price of Rs. 946 (16xFY17E) vs Rs 1190 earlier. Swaraj Engines Ltd. (contd...) January 27,

15 Q3FY16 Result Update (contd...) Standalone Financial Statements Income statement Y E March (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net sales 4,790 6,083 5,397 5,501 6,868 Growth % 6.79% 26.99% 11.28% 1.93% 24.85% Expenditure 4,075 5,177 4,650 4,699 5,826 Raw Material 3,644 4,623 4,091 4,126 5,117 Employee cost Other expenses EBITDA ,042 Growth % 3.04% 26.81% 17.57% 7.32% 29.99% EBITDA Margin % 14.9% 14.9% 13.8% 14.6% 15.2% Depreciation EBIT EBIT Margin % 13.43% 13.40% 11.40% 12.10% 13.09% Other Income Exceptional Item (11.50) Interest PBT ,103 Tax Effective tax rate % 30.32% 31.48% 33.39% 33.39% 33.39% PAT Growth% 4.87% 21.02% 22.68% 8.25% 30.90% PAT margin % 11.56% 11.02% 9.60% 10.20% 10.69% Balance sheet Y E March (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Share Capital Reserves & Surplus 1,813 1,975 1,997 1,908 1,993 Net Worth 1,937 2,099 2,121 2,032 2,117 Non current Liabilities Long term borrowings Deferred tax liabilities,net Other long term liabilities Long term provisions Total Non current Liabilities Current Liabilities Trade Payables Other current liabilities Short term provisions Total Current Liabilities 996 1,155 1, ,247 Total Equity and Liabilities 3,009 3,341 3,253 3,103 3,442 Gross Block ,001 Less Depreciation Net Block Capital Work in Progress Total fixed assets Non current Investments Long term loans and advances Non Current assets Current Assets Current Investments Inventories Trade receivables Cash & Cash equivalents 807 1,095 1,481 1,198 1,210 Loans & advances Total current assets 2,137 2,452 2,391 2,233 2,450 Total Assets 3,009 3,341 3,253 3,102 3,442 Cash Flow Y E March (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Profit before tax ,103 Depreciation Interest (222) Other non cash charges Changes in working capital (110) 99 Tax (241) (308) (260) (281) (368) Cash flow from operations 977 1,023 1, ,345 Capital expenditure (239) (73) (758) (120) (114) Free Cash Flow ,231 Cash flow from investments (284) (98) (157) (170) (164) Borrowing Dividend paid (incl tax) (187) (478) (476) (650) (650) Cash flow from Financing (189) (478) (476) (650) (650) Net change in cash (232) 163 Cash at the beginning of the year Cash at the end of the year Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research Key Ratios Y E March FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e Adj.EPS (Rs) Cash EPS (Rs) DPS (Rs) BVPS ROCE % 23.1% 26.6% 19.3% 21.8% 28.3% ROE % 28.6% 31.9% 24.4% 27.6% 34.7% Du Point Analysis Net profit margin 11.6% 11.0% 9.6% 10.2% 10.7% Asset turnover Financial leverage PER (x) 20.0x 16.5x 21.3x 19.7x 15.1x P/BV (x) 5.7x 5.3x 5.2x 5.4x 5.2x P/CEPS (x) 17.7x 14.5x 17.0x 15.9x 12.6x EV/EBITDA (x) 14.4x 11.0x 12.8x 12.3x 9.5x Dividend Yield % 3.7% 3.9% 3.7% 5.1% 5.1% m cap/sales (x) 2.3x 1.8x 2.1x 2.0x 1.6x net debt/equity (x) 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x net debt/ebitda (x) 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x Debtors (Days) Creditors (Days) Inventory (Days) Cash Conversion Cycle (Days) Swaraj Engines Ltd. (contd...) January 27,

16 Majesco Ltd (NYSE: MJCO). Performance Largely In line with our expectation. Q3FY16 Result Update January 27, 2016 Current CMP : Rs.586 Rating : BUY Target : Rs.899 Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research Tel: daljeet.kohli@indianivesh.in Amar Mourya Research Analyst Previous Rating : BUY Target : Rs.778 Tel: amar.mourya@indianivesh.in IndiaNivesh Research Q3FY16 Result Highlights Revenue Highlights Q3FY16 revenue increased 37.1% Y/Y to $29.6 million (v/s $21.6 mn in Q3FY15). We estimated $30.3 mn in Q3FY16. The growth was primarily driven by favorable momentum in Majesco s P&C business and new customer wins during the year. Revenue increased 5.0% Q/Q compared to $28.2 mn in Q2FY16. Profitability highlights Gross margins during the quarter went down 105 bps Y/Y to 45.7% in Q3FY16 (v/s 46.8%). This was primarily due to the increase in salaries and wages effective from Oct 1, 2015 for certain employees and a one time additional cost provision on account of statutory bonuses in India. Further an increase in product R&D expenses [to $4.2 mn 14.3% of rev v/s $2.4 mn 10.9% of rev in Q3FY15] and SG&A expenses [to $10.6 mn 35.8% of rev v/s $5.1 mn 23.6% of rev in Q3FY15] led to EBITDA level loss. EBITDA stood at $1.3 mn ( 4.4% of revenue) as compared to $2.0 mn (9.5% of revenue) in Q3FY15. The decrease was primarily due to an increased investment in R&D and sales and marketing. As expected MJCO reported Net loss of $1.1 mn, or ( $0.031) per share as compared to a net profit of $1.4 mn, or ($0.045) per share in Q3FY15. Balance Sheet MJCO had cash and cash equivalents of $8.9 mn at Dec 31, Total debt at Dec 31, 2015 was $12.2 million, compared to $4.5 million at March 31, Operating Highlights The company added four new clients during the quarter and expanded its relationship with existing client accounts that included two tier 1 clients. 12 month backlog at December 31, 2015 was $63.0 million as compared to $54.1 million at September 30, 2015 up 16.4% reflecting strong growth momentum. During the quarter, Maine Mutual Group selected Majesco P&C Suite to replace their core systems as a foundation to transform their business. They selected Majesco Business Analytics to provide their business intelligence and analytics platform. They will deploy the entire solution portfolio on Majesco Cloud. Majesco also announced the additions of Blueprint and Appulate to the company s partnership ecosystem to strengthen the portfolio offerings to clients. IndiaNivesh Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration No. INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022) IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.

17 Q3FY16 Result Update (contd...) Outlook In our view the company's performance was largely in line with our estimate. As expected the company started attracting business through cross selling. Further, MJCO'S marketing initiatives started paying results, getting good rating and recognition from top independent agencies. The disappointment on EBITDA and PAT front was expected on account of integration of AGILE and COVERALL. The overall story remains intact post consolidation MJCO has emerged as one of the leading third party insurance vendors. Result Impact on Majesco Ltd (India) Valuations At CMP of Rs.586 (based on NYSE Mcap & 30% holding discount), the stock is trading at EV/Sales of 1.6x/1.2x FY16E/FY17E estimates (P/E 31.5x FY17E). We value MJCO at EV/Sales multiple of 2.2x FY18E and arrived at TP of Rs.899 (Previous TP Rs.778). Given the 53% upside from the target price we continue to maintain BUY on MJCO. Table: EV/Sales (x) Target Price Calculation (Rs Mn) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Forward Sales 4,860 7,582 10,592 12,885 Debt Cash 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 Forward Multiple (at CMP) 2.1x 1.5x 1.3x FY18E TP Multiple (x) 2.2x Rev CAGR (5Yrs) 38.4% EV 28,875 Less: Holding Co. Discount (30%) 8,662 Less: Debt 736 Add: Cash 1,025 Shareholder Value 20,502 O/Shares 22.8 TP 899 Profit & Loss Account (Consolidated) FY15 FY16 (US $ Mn) Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Revenue Q/Q G % NA 13.0% 13.3% 0.5% 6.7% 21.8% 5.0% Y/Y G % NA NA NA NA 37.2% 47.9% 37.1% Cost of revenue (Ex. Dep) Gross profit Margin % 41.4% 41.8% 46.8% 36.2% 50.8% 47.1% 45.7% Operating expenses R&D SG&A Restructuring costs Total operating expenses EBITDA Margin % 10.5% 1.5% 9.5% 1.1% 3.4% 2.4% 4.4% Depreciation Interest income Interest expense Other income (expenses),net Loss)/Income before provision for income taxes (Benefit)/Provision for income taxes Net (Loss)/Income Earnings per share: Basic Diluted O/Shares Basic O/Shares Diluted (contd...) January 27,

18 Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB) Q3FY16 Result Updates January 27, 2016 Current Previous CMP : Rs.93 Rating : BUY Rating : BUY Target : Rs.113 Target : Rs. 113 STOCK INFO Bse Nse LAKSHVILAS Bloomberg LVB IN Reuters LVLS NS Sector Private Sector Banks Face Value (Rs) 10 Equity Capital (Rs Mn) 1795 Mkt Cap (Rs Mn) 16,726 52w H/L (Rs) 111 / 64 Avg Daily Vol (Bse+Nse) 344,066 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN % (as on Sept. 2015) Promoter 9.7 FII 9.1 DII 7.7 Others 73.5 Source: BSE STOCK PER. (%) 1m 3m 12m LVB 3% 5% 4% Sensex 5% 11% 16% Source: Capitaline, IndiaNivesh Research LVB v/s SENSEX /01/ /02/ /02/ /03/ /03/ /04/ /04/ /05/ /05/ /05/ /06/ /06/ /07/ /07/ /08/ /08/ /09/ /09/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /12/ /01/ /01/2016 Source: Capitaline, IndiaNivesh Research Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research Tel: daljeet.kohli@indianivesh.in Kaushal Patel Research Associate Tel: kaushal.patel@indianivesh.in LVB Sensex LVB continued to deliver healthy performance and it reported numbers were broadly in line with our expectations in Q3FY16. Net interest income grew by 22% to Rs 1.7 bn y o y backed by strong business growth of 24% y o y in Q3FY16. Net Profit increased 42% y o y (+3% q o q) to Rs 461 mn partially helped by lower tax rate of 4.2% in Q3FY16 as compared to 21.7% in Q3FY15. LVB s asset quality continued to improve for the eighth quarter as Gross NPA and Net NPA ratios of the bank decreased 7 bps and 21 bps sequentially to 1.82% and 0.80%, respectively. We maintain Buy rating on the stock with price target of Rs 113/ (P/ABV of 1.3x for FY17E). Result Update: Loan growth remained healthy led by wholesale and SME Loans: Advances continued to grow at a healthy pace of 27% y o y (+3% q o q) to Rs 180 bn, mainly driven by 50% y o y increase in Wholesale and 37% y o y increase in SME segments. The bank continued to disburse incremental lending to highly rated corporates. The retail and agri portfolios of the bank reported moderate growth of 6% y o y and 8% y o y in Q3FY16. We expect advances to grow at a CAGR of 18% over FY15 17E. Advances Mix Rs mn % of total Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 % QoQ % YoY Wholesale 39 70,053 65,281 46, Retail 27 48,528 47,601 45, SME 20 35,323 34,770 25, Agri 14 25,787 26,370 23, Total ,79,691 1,74,022 1,41, Deposits growth remained healthy led by CASA Deposits: Deposits also continued to grow at a healthy pace of 23% y o y (+2% q o q) to Rs 239 bn mainly led by 36% y o y growth in CASA deposits to Rs 40 bn. As a result, CASA ratio increased 163 bps y o y to 16.6% in Q3FY16. However, it declined 54 bps sequentially. We expect deposits to grow by 24% CAGR over FY15 17E. Deposits Mix in terms of % Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 QoQ bps YoY bps CASA Rs mn Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 % QoQ % YoY CASA 39,689 40,140 29, Term 1,99,688 1,94,305 1,65, Total 2,39,377 2,34,453 1,95, LVB opened 23 new branches in Q3FY16 which helped it to increase its total branch network to 442. We believe this move will support the bank's strategy to focus and improve its CASA ratio further. IndiaNivesh Research IndiaNivesh Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration No. INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022) IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.

19 Q3FY16 Result Update (contd...) NIM to remain under pressure: NIM declined marginally by 3 bps q o q (+7 bps y o y) to 2.78% in Q3FY16. However, we believe that margin to remain under pressure due to implementation of the Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate (MCLR) method from FY17. We expect the bank s margin to decline from the current level and stabilise at ~2.7% in FY17E. Yields/Costs/Margins (%) Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 QoQ bps YoY bps NIM Cost of Deposits Cost of Fund Yield on Advances Yield on Investment Yield on Fund Healthy operating performance: Net Interest Income (NII) of LVB continued to increase at a healthy of 22% y o y (+4% q o q) to Rs 1.7 bn in Q3FY16. LVB s Non Interest Income decreased 5% y o y (+9% q o q) to Rs 693 mn. Operating expenses increased at a faster pace of 19% y o y (muted q o q) to Rs 1.3 bn mainly due to 22% y o y increased in other operating expenses. The higher other operating expenses were expected as the bank opened 23 new branches in Q3FY16 as compared to 9 new branches in H1FY16. As a result, Pre Provisioning Profit (PPP) increased 5% y o y (+13% q o q) to Rs 1.1 bn. Provisioning expenses decreased 2% y o y (+68% q o q) to Rs 599 mn. Net Profit increased 42% y o y (+3% q o q) to Rs 461 mn. The higher than expected profit was due to lower tax rate of 4.2% in Q3FY16 as compared to 21.7% in Q3FY15. Asset quality improved further: LVB reported fresh slippages of Rs 119 mn (as against Rs 321 mn in Q2FY16 and Rs 769 mn in Q3FY15). Total Recovery and up gradation was higher at Rs 119 mn (as against Rs 94 mn in Q2FY16 and Rs 605 mn in Q3FY15). Apart from these, the bank also made small write offs worth Rs 2 mn as against Rs 149 mn in Q3FY15. Assets Quality Rs mn Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 % QoQ % YoY Gross NPA 3,316 3,318 4, Net NPA 1,439 1,756 3, in terms of % Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 QoQ bps YoY bps GNPA NNPA Provision Coverage Slippage* ; *Calculated As a result, LVB asset quality continued to improve for the eighth quarter as Gross NPA and Net NPA ratios of the bank decreased 7 bps and 21 bps sequentially to 1.82% and 0.80%, respectively. In absolute terms, Gross NPA remained stable sequentially and Net NPA decreased 18% q o q to Rs 1.4 bn. Provision coverage ratio (PCR) also improved by 503 bps q o q and stood at 76.49% in Q3FY16. Total outstanding standard restructured book of the bank stood at Rs bn, constituting 6.79% of net advances. In addition to restructuring, the bank transferred one account worth Rs 360 mn under 5/25 scheme. There was not any asset sale to ARC during Q3FY16. (contd...) January 27,

20 Q3FY16 Result Update (contd...) Outlook and Valuation: Overall, LVB reported good set of financial performance across all the levels in Q3FY16 and it is on right track and ready to ride on growth momentum once economy starts improving. With improving return profile, we believe it provides attractive risk reward opportunity. In addition, we believe that the bank s performance to improve further under the new management. At CMP of Rs 93/, the stock is trading at P/ABV of 1.1x and 1.0x for FY16E and FY17E respectively. We maintain Buy rating on the stock with price target of Rs 113/ (P/ABV of 1.3x for FY17E). Rs mn Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 % QoQ % YoY 9MFY16 9MFY15 % YoY Interest Income 6,537 6,342 5, ,020 16, Interest on advances 5,172 5,012 4, ,040 12, Income on Investments 1,310 1,315 1, ,887 3,590 8 Others Interest Expense 4,867 4,739 4, ,294 12, Net Interest Income 1,671 1,603 1, ,726 3, Non Interest Income ,120 1, Total Net Income 2,364 2,240 2, ,846 5, Operating Expenses 1,284 1,286 1, ,717 3, Employee Cost ,850 1, Other Operating Exp ,866 1, Total Income 7,231 6,979 6, ,140 18, Total Expenditure 6,151 6,025 5, ,010 15, Pre Provisioning Profit 1, , ,130 2, Provisions ,558 1,447 8 Profit Before Tax ,572 1, Tax Net Profit , EPS Diluted (Rs) Rs mn Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 % QoQ % YoY Advances 1,79,691 1,74,022 1,41, Deposits 2,39,377 2,34,453 1,95, Total Business 4,19,068 4,08,475 3,37, Investments 65,322 66,498 58, Total Assets 2,45,013 2,63,327 2,00, Gross NPA 3,316 3,318 4, Net NPA 1,439 1,756 3, (contd...) January 27,

21 Q3FY16 Result Update (contd...) Key Ratios (%) Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 QoQ bps YoY bps NIM Cost of Deposits Cost of Fund Yield on Advances Yield on Investment Yield on Fund Cost to Income* Credit to Deposit* CASA CAR Tier I Capital GNPA NNPA Provision Coverage Slippage* ROE (Ann.) ROA (Ann.) ; *Calculated (contd...) January 27,

22 Q3FY16 Result Update (contd...) Consolidated Financial Statements: Income Statement (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Interest Income 17,605 19,840 22,145 25,867 29,648 Interest Expense 13,685 14,979 16,879 19,352 21,959 Net Interest Income 3,920 4,860 5,267 6,515 7,689 Non Interest Income 1,971 2,180 2,840 3,182 3,872 Net Income 5,891 7,040 8,107 9,698 11,561 Operating Expenses 3,379 3,950 4,343 5,193 6,095 Total Income 19,576 22,019 24,986 29,049 33,520 Total Expenditure 17,065 18,929 21,221 24,544 28,054 Pre Provisioning Profit 2,511 3,090 3,764 4,505 5,466 Provisions 1,134 2,686 1,882 2,065 2,413 Profit Before Tax 1, ,882 2,440 3,053 Tax Net Profit ,323 1,715 2,146 Balance Sheet (Rs Mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Liabilities Capital ,792 1,795 1,795 Reserves and Surplus 9,168 9,560 13,770 14,998 16,613 Deposits 156, , , , ,840 Borrowings 4,800 4,581 4,581 6,600 7,780 Other Liabilities and Provisions 5,534 5,685 7,270 8,059 8,912 Total Liabilities 176, , , , ,940 Assets Cash And Balances 8,719 13,117 13,187 14,743 16,381 Investments 43,245 56,887 61,038 69,972 79,790 Advances 117, , , , ,332 Fixed Assets 1,898 2,005 2,434 2,556 2,684 Other Assets 5,776 5,630 6,875 8,593 7,753 Total Assets 176, , , , ,940 Ratios Per share data (Rs) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E EPS DPS BV ABV Valuation (%) P/E P/BV P/ABV Div Yield Spreads (%) Yield on Advances Yield on Investments Yield on Funds Cost of Funds Capital (%) CAR Tier I Tier II Asset (%) GNPA NNPA PCR Management (%) Credit / Deposit Cost / Income CASA Earnings (%) NIM ROE ROA Liquidity (%) C&B / D&B C&B / Deposit *C&B: Cash & Bank Balance; D: Deposits; B: Borrowings; DD: Demand Deposits Growth Ratios (%) Advances Deposits Total Assets Networth NII Pre Provisioning Profit Provisions Net Profit (contd...) January 27,

23 Dharmesh Kant VP Equity and Derivatives Strategist Tel: Global Markets Outlook US Markets: U.S. stocks ended sharply higher Tuesday as energy stocks soared amid a rebound in oil prices. Big earnings driven gains in market bellwethers like Sprint Corp., Procter & Gamble Co., and 3M Co. added steam to the rally as Wall Street sought to find its footing after what has so far been an awful start to The energy sector led gains for the S&P as it surged 3.8%. But it has still tumbled 7.8% since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, fresh data emphasized the housing market s strength. The S&P/Case Shiller home price index showed that U.S. home prices accelerate at their fastest pace in 16 months during November. The Federal Housing Finance Agency said house price gains pushed past their 2007 peaks. The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported that crude supplies climbed by 11.4 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 22, according to sources who reviewed the report. The more closely watched EIA report is due Wednesday. Day s Performance: The S&P 500 gained points, or 1.4%, to 1,903. All 10 major sectors showed gains, led by energy and telecom. The Dow Jones Industrial Average flirted with a 300 point gain before pulling back. It closed up 282 points, or 1.8%, at 16,167, more than reversing Monday s losses. The Nasdaq Composite reversed early losses to close up 49.2 points, or 1.1%, at 4,567. Set ups on S&P 500, Dow Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 are back in correction mode. We expect markets to remain volatile where pull backs from lows will be sold into. Emerging markets: Asian indices are trading with mild gains this morning on positive global cues and strengthening crude oil prices. Bullions & Commodities: Gold is trading at $1120 per troy ounce this morning down (0.07%) from previous close. WTI Crude future is trading at $30.73 per barrel while Brent Crude future is trading at $31.24 per barrel. Currencies: The U.S. Dollar Index tracking the U.S. currency against a basket of six others currencies trading at this morning down (0.01%) from previous close. Long term set up on Dollar Index remain strong, a break above 100 on a weekly closing basis will initiate a new up move for a target of 120. Usually, the dollar and U.S. stocks often trade on opposite paths, with a weak dollar seen as providing investors with cheap funding to buy stocks. Plus the dollar s drop generally helps U.S. companies overseas sales. Source: Bloomberg

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