Rollover Analysis March 2016

Transcription

1 April 1, 16 Month to remember as sentiment and flows turnaround: Nifty ended up 11% for March series (eoe) basis, after a fall of 6/6.5% in January/February expiry. Rollovers for Nifty stood at 63% lower than average of last three month (2.04cr vs 1.93cr previous expiry). Market wide rollovers stood at ~81.1% (as compared to 80% seen in previous expiry), in shares terms 257cr vs 278/264cr in the Jan/Feb expiry. Banknifty during the series was up massive 19% with rollovers of 17.8lacs vs 23.8lacs shares) lead by short covering in private and PSU banks with ICICIBank among the biggest gainers in the series. With rate cut hopes from RBI policy meet will keep banking/realty in focus next week. Market Vs Nifty Rollover 90 Market rollover Nifty Rollover Oct 26 Nov 31 Dec 28 Jan 25 Feb 31 Mar Source: Nse, India Infoline Research COC for Nifty stood at 0.57% higher than 0.47% in previous expiry. FIIs positive bias was seen as long/short index rolls stood at 64.2/40% as against last four month average of 54/%. On Options front, April series starts with maximum open interest at 8000 call and 7500 put. India VIX down 17.7% on (eoe) basis, markets continue to remain volatile ahead of the key global/domestic events. We expect implied volatility to inch up after bottoming near 15.5 levels. Support/resistance for Nifty is seen at 7500/79 level. Nifty Options Matrix 4.5 (mn) Call OI Put OI Calls based on Rollover Strategy: Buy Call India Cement April 90 at Rs with SL of Rs1 for target of Rs Source: Nse, India Infoline Research Sector wise rollovers March Expiry Feb Expiry Jan Expiry Auto & Auto anc. PSU Banks Private Banks Capital Goods Cement Fertilizer FMCG IT Infra Real estate Media Metals Oil & Gas Pharma Power Textile Telecom Others Source: Nse, India Infoline Research Analyst: Hemant Nahata, Navneet Daga This report is published by IIFL India Private Clients research desk. IIFL has other business units with independent research teams separated by 'Chinese walls' catering to different sets of customers having varying objectives, risk profiles, investment horizon, etc. The views and opinions expressed in this document may at times be contrary in terms of rating, target prices, estimates and views on sectors and markets (Read the complete disclaimer at the back of this report)

2 Strong Rollovers Scrip LTP Rollover % change eoe Roll cost Idfc Upl (0.13) Tataglobal (0.04) Mcleodruss Tv18Brdcst Tatachem (0.13) Indiacem (0.06) Divislab (0.14) Southbank (0.28) Glenmark (0.17) Source: NSE, India Infoline Research High Cost of Carry Scrip LTP Rollover % change eoe Roll cost Nifty 7, Crompgreav (60.4) 0.51 Ncc Gmrinfra Star 1, Mothersumi Bhartiartl Adanipower Itc Tatacomm Source: NSE, India Infoline Research 6months nifty movement Sep 1 Oct 29 Oct 26 Nov 24 Dec 21 Jan 18 Feb 17 Mar April series VAP 7743 Weak Rollovers Scrip LTP Rollover % change eoe Roll cost Niftyit 11, Indusindbk (0.02) Unionbank Star 1, Havells (0.16) Nifty 7, Coalindia (2.4) 0.12 Godrejind (0.03) Yesbank Pcjeweller Source: NSE, India Infoline Research Low Cost of Carry Scrip LTP Rollover % change eoe Roll cost Ibulhsgfin (0.42) Jindalstel (0.41) Bataindia (0.39) Jublfood 1, (0.38) Tcs 2, (0.36) Auropharma (0.34) Albk (0.27) Adaniports (0.26) Justdial (0.26) Bajfinance 6, (0.26) Source: NSE, India Infoline Research 6months Banknifty movement April series VAP Sep 1 Oct 29 Oct 26 Nov 24 Dec 21 Jan 18 Feb 17 Mar Page 2 of 10

3 Participation wise rollover position Index futures long carry Index futures short carry 1 1 Stock futures long carry Stock futures short carry Index call options long carry Index put options long carry Index call options short carry Index put options short carry Page 3 of 10

4 Derivative rollover details Sector March Expiry February expiry January expiry Scrip Name % chg No. of shares % chg No. of shares % chg No. of shares Index NIFTY ,06, (6.2) 193,30,800.6 (6.5) 197,40,900 NIFTYIT , (5.7) 12, (1.9) 14,8 BANKNIFTY ,75, (11.9) 23,77, (9.0) 21,53,130 Sector Average ,91, ,, ,12,435 Automobiles Two & Three Wheeler HEROMOTOCO ,97, ,50, (9.2) 10,93,600 BAJAJ AUTO ,00, ,54, (10.1) 17,75,000 TVSMOTOR ,66, (8.6) 22,72, ,24,000 EICHERMOT ,72, ,84, (5.5) 2,08,550 Sector Average ,36, ,61, ,68,600 Four Wheeler ASHOKLEY ,21, (2.5) 538,44, ,32,000 M&M 82.1 (1.3) 40,34, ,79, (5.1) 29,08,400 MARUTI ,43, (16.7) 29,43, (11.1) 27,01,375 TATAMOTORS ,, (10.8) 268,14, (14.5) 278,79,000 TATAMTRDVR ,39, (12.7) 135,11, (7.6) 138,26,400 Sector Average ,82, ,91, ,47,175 Auto Ancillaries BHARATFORG ,, (10.4) 58,71, (8.0) 51,60,000 EXIDEIND ,23, ,05, (19.0) 100,30,000 MOTHERSUMI ,87, (18.4) 142,41, (11.9) 105,67,500 BOSCHLTD , (3.8) 1,05, (9.1) 1,21,750 AMARAJABAT ,75, ,73, (5.3) 7,63,0 Sector Average ,89, ,97, ,57,500 Banking & Financial Services PSU Banks ALBK ,02, (18.4) 75,60, (22.3) 99,66,000 ANDHRABANK ,28, (10.3) 84,00, (19.6) 107,52,000 BANKBARODA ,41, ,47, (16.8) 383,40,800 BANKINDIA ,76, (15.4) 155,28, (13.9) 188,28,000 CANBK ,36, (16.1) 111,18, (17.9) 126,76,000 IOB ,24, (3.8) 116,34, (18.7) 130,34,000 ORIENTBANK ,27, (30.3) 103,83, (.1) 96,18,000 PNB ,56, (21.6) 3,72, (.9) 289,24,000 SBIN ,28, (17.9) 732,82, (17.6) 739,92,000 SYNDIBANK ,30, (28.9) 90,25, (19.8) 88,,000 UNIONBANK ,79, (9.6) 119,19, (15.8) 126,00,000 UCOBANK ,, (16.9) 94,40, (17.2) 109,90,000 KTKBANK ,16, (12.4) 138,36, (19.7) 143,88,000 Sector Average ,63, ,44, ,28,800 Private Banks AXISBANK ,12, (6.8) 364,43, (9.5) 409,43,000 FEDERALBNK ,88, (3.3) 2,24, (17.1) 233,12,000 HDFCBANK ,40, (8.7) 193,58, (4.5) 180,40,500 Page 4 of 10

5 Sector March Expiry February expiry January expiry Scrip Name % chg No. of shares % chg No. of shares % chg No. of shares ICICIBANK ,82, (21.6) 603,85, (10.7) 530,68,900 IDBI ,24, (6.3) 265,36, (32.7) 310,40,000 KOTAKBANK ,58, (8.7) 82,42, (7.6) 87,11,500 INDUSINDBK ,51, (11.0) 56,84, (6.3) 64,87,800 YESBANK ,41, (0.4) 123,34, (7.3) 140,40,600 SOUTHBANK ,12, (9.8) 216,04, (4.7) 192,06,000 Sector Average ,09, ,11, ,44,300 Financial Institution & Brokerage HDFC ,33, (9.2) 127,11, (9.1) 119,19,600 IDFC ,00, (8.7) 721,47, (15.7) 656,50,0 IFCI ,40, (9.0) 475,60, (19.2) 576,60,000 LICHSGFIN ,51, (17.6) 89,37, (6.7) 79,44,0 PFC ,68, (6.8) 130,82, (16.8) 1,66,000 RELCAPITAL ,57, (14.0),43, (14.5) 93,93,000 SRTRANSFIN ,73, ,06, (12.3) 30,04,0 M&MFIN ,06, ,, (18.9) 131,54,000 L&TFH ,92, (13.5) 241,44, (10.3) 283,12,000 SKSMICRO ,61, (10.2) 72,61, ,04,000 IBULHSGFIN ,60,800.7 (19.7) 96,36, (5.1) 69,40,000 BAJFINANCE ,65, (0.5) 1,66, (3.9) 1,98,500 DHFL ,93, (22.3) 52,60, (22.2) 55,04,400 Sector Average ,01, ,62, ,03,0 Capital goods & Engineering BHEL ,14, (31.4) 292,62, (18.9) 216,86,000 CROMPGREAV 82.8 (60.4) 158,46, (26.0) 230,40, (12.9) 150,78,000 LT ,27, ,35, (15.6) 131,24,0 SIEMENS ,64, ,67, (17.9) 13,38,400 VOLTAS ,88, (21.8) 38,33, (12.3) 32,51,0 HAVELLS ,28, (9.0) 28,50, (2.5) 57,,000 ENGINERSIN ,65, (22.7) 39,33, (19.7) 25,93,800 BEL ,07, (12.9) 15,31, (10.1) 19,12,0 BEML ,54, (8.3) 4,55, (16.7) 4,94,000 CUMMINSIND ,96, Sector Average ,91, ,08, ,49,050 Cement ACC ,84, (1.3) 10,96, (10.6) 18,,625 AMBUJACEM ,02, (1.9) 48,40, (5.1) 69,17,400 GRASIM ,15, (0.9) 7,01, (10.7) 8,63,400 INDIACEM ,34, (25.7) 238,14, (6.9) 283,02,000 ULTRACEMCO ,41, ,19, (1.3) 16,38,800 Sector Average ,77, ,71, ,42,225 Fertilizers & Chemicals TATACHEM ,22, (8.5) 44,44,000.6 (14.3) 53,99,900 UPL ,48, (7.2) 76,, (6.3),57,000 KSCL ,13, ,78, (7.5) 26,21,250 Sector Average ,84, ,42, ,56,900 FMCG Page 5 of 10

6 Sector March Expiry February expiry January expiry Scrip Name % chg No. of shares % chg No. of shares % chg No. of shares COLPAL ,30, (3.2) 19,65, (12.6) 18,05,000 DABUR ,78, (1.9) 44,82, (12.1),82,000 HINDUNILVR ,24, ,03, (8.2) 41,84,400 ITC ,15, (10.1) 294,73, (2.7) 323,,0 MCLEODRUSS ,39, (3.9) 24,24, (13.3) 28,18,0 TATAGLOBAL ,72, (14.7) 215,80, (15.8) 242,56,000 TITAN ,, (4.7) 59,58, (1.8) 65,68,500 BATAINDIA ,77, (3.3) 17,67, (8.2) 25,00,000 JUBLFOOD ,42, (21.3) 19,01, (17.2) 19,,0 BRITANNIA 88.0 (0.3) 14,89, ,38, (9.9) 15,04,0 MARICO ,94, ,87, (5.8) 83,64,0 MCDOWELL N ,99, PCJEWELLER ,02, Sector Average ,59, ,80, ,48,400 IT HCLTECH ,07, (4.4) 72,24, (1.1) 69,53,400 OFSS ,22, (13.0) 1,76, (3.5) 1,40,250 INFY ,97, (2.0) 111,46, ,09,000 TCS ,56, (5.2) 42,56, (4.3) 38,07,800 TECHM ,19, (16.8),65, (4.1) 91,10,000 WIPRO ,19, (2.7) 71,, (2.2) 66,80,000 HEXAWARE ,22, ,06, (9.5) 36,16,000 MINDTREE 71.8 (54.4) 18,01, (3.2) 7,17, ,56,000 KPIT ,76, TATAELXSI ,66, Sector Average ,86, ,86, ,16,0 Infrastructure GMRINFRA ,, (11.1) 49,, (23.4) 2190,63,000 ADANIPORTS ,37, (6.2) 365,74, (19.0) 417,74,400 IRB ,60, (10.8) 56,97, (3.6) 43,09,0 NCC ,, (0.7) 76,56, (18.2),44,000 Sector Average ,13, ,72, ,90,600 Construction DLF ,25, (11.7) 330,15, (18.6) 6,25,000 HDIL ,, (16.9) 153,90, (8.7) 140,10,000 IBREALEST ,96, (16.8) 296,19, (15.2) 321,48,000 JPASSOCIAT ,08, (22.6) 1412,16, (25.3) 1723,68,000 UNITECH ,66, (31.0) 1831,06, (15.7) 36,65,000 GODREJIND ,22, (11.2) 16,58, (9.4) 15,28,800 Sector Average ,87, ,04, ,44,800 Media & Entertainment DISHTV ,25, (.5) 322,60, (14.0) 310,15,000 SUNTV ,60, (10.3) 40,44, (17.1) 58,92,000 ZEEL ,50, (6.5) 87,94, (7.3) 80,35,300 TV18BRDCST ,88, (19.6) 599,08, (9.8) 613,02,000 Sector Average ,23, ,06, ,44,300 Metals Page 6 of 10

7 Sector March Expiry February expiry January expiry Scrip Name % chg No. of shares % chg No. of shares % chg No. of shares HINDALCO ,30, (3.9) 396,25, (17.7) 416,,000 HINDZINC ,64, (0.5) 19,00, ,55,0 JINDALSTEL ,28, (15.2) 354,, (33.4) 399,56,000 JSWSTEEL ,61, ,02, ,31,000 SAIL ,29, (19.3) 379,08, (10.9) 293,94,000 VEDL ,76, ,40, (25.7) 921,76,000 TATASTEEL ,26, (2.7) 210,50, (2.1) 280,04,000 NMDC ,80, ,35, (12.1) 141,15,000 COALINDIA 63.0 (2.4) 147,14, (3.2) 113,36, (6.1) 165,85,0 Sector Average ,09, ,17, ,86,400 Oil & Gas CAIRN ,90, (2.7) 103,71, (10.3) 123,90,000 GAIL ,15, (15.2) 63,61, (4.1) 73,40,0 ONGC 81.7 (0.7) 168,64, (1.8) 117,24,000.0 (9.1) 144,92,000 PETRONET ,85, (3.0) 44,85, (4.6) 60,12,000 RELIANCE ,42, (7.1) 222,33, ,44,500 BPCL ,85, (12.4) 71,31, (2.5) 54,12,000 HINDPETRO ,41, (21.5) 86,40, (2.4) 86,59,0 IOC ,97, (8.5) 73,29, (7.3) 85,26,000 IGL ,90, (13.5) 11,61, ,48,000 OIL 78.8 (1.7) 11,52, (8.6) 7,47, (8.0) 7,28,400 CASTROLIND 85.4 (0.7) 15,89, (9.9) 12,91, (5.3) 14,21,0 Sector Average ,53, ,76, ,73,500 Pharma AUROPHARMA ,, (27.3) 168,77, (7.9) 149,39,400 BIOCON ,69,500.5 (7.1) 18,97, (5.0) 30,62,400 CIPLA 87.4 (1.3) 113,32, (10.2) 78,40, (11.1) 68,91,0 DIVISLAB ,08, (16.7) 26,47, (2.3) 24,12,000 DRREDDY ,63, (0.6) 13,57, (3.1) 17,47,0 LUPIN 81.9 (15.7) 53,48, ,71, (7.1) 33,72,900 SUNPHARMA 76.6 (6.2) 104,43, ,38, ,,600 GLENMARK ,93, (1.9) 32,25, (18.6) 30,28,500 WOCKPHARMA ,42, (37.2) 21,18, (18.0) 31,51,875 STAR ,17, (22.7) 17,87, (11.2) 16,54,400 AJANTPHARM ,11, ,31, (7.3) 4,97,600 CADILAHC 86.0 (2.7) 41,04, ,64, (8.8) 63,96,000 TORNTPHARM ,40, (8.5) 2,87, ,00,800 GRANULES ,80, Sector Average ,50, ,, ,74,0 Power CESC ,51, (3.2) 22,89, (13.3) 27,32,000 NTPC ,36, (17.9) 4,08, (1.3),28,000 POWERGRID ,12, (8.3) 132,04, ,24,000 PTC ,04, (3.6) 65,, (5.9) 76,80,000 RECLTD ,68, (17.2) 100,68, (17.0) 114,38,000 RELINFRA ,14, (10.5) 76,06, (15.9) 103,84,400 JSWENERGY ,06, (15.2) 49,02, (12.7) 86,88,000 RPOWER ,16, (13.6) 538,, (11.4) 502,56,000 TATAPOWER ,56, (4.7) 317,, (11.6) 234,48,000 Page 7 of 10

8 Sector March Expiry February expiry January expiry Scrip Name % chg No. of shares % chg No. of shares % chg No. of shares ADANIPOWER ,80, (2.3) 578,80, (12.0) 6,40,000 NHPC ,23, (2.5) 299,97, (4.0) 298,89,000 Sector Average ,66, ,14, ,07,400 Textile ABIRLANUVO ,55, (.6) 13,12, (59.5) 12,11,000 ARVIND ,77, (17.2) 28,49, (11.3) 33,16,0 PAGEIND , (16.3) 59, (10.0) 41,900 SRF ,52, (8.6) 6,83, (10.4) 9,44,000 ICIL ,60, Sector Average ,08, ,04, ,13,600 Telecom BHARTIARTL ,02, ,26, (14.1) 273,10,800 IDEA ,69, ,61, (26.8) 464,49,000 RCOM 85.5 (8.3) 678,08, (12.5) 466,40, (29.5) 673,60,000 TATACOMM ,58, (18.4) 44,47, (6.7) 48,98,300 INFRATEL ,43, (2.4) 35,43,800.3 (13.9) 24,,000 Sector Average ,80, ,18, ,88,100 Others CENTURYTEX ,88, (16.4) 71,12, (14.7) 76,92,800 ASIANPAINT ,67, ,64, (2.7) 44,80,0 ADANIENT ,52, (16.7) 150,72, (13.5) 125,58,000 APOLLOTYRE ,50, ,57, (5.9) 82,08,000 JISLJALEQS ,28, (12.4) 400,40, (9.3) 437,68,000 MRF , (10.5) 26, (10.2) 34,0 UBL ,74, ,87, (17.8) 7,44,500 APOLLOHOSP 89.3 (8.4) 10,04, ,75, (4.0) 7,13,600 JUSTDIAL ,90, (26.3),67, (13.4) 17,75,500 CEATLTD ,98, ,66, (12.5) 14,34,300 PIDILITIND 75.1 (1.8) 10,96, ,78, ,52,000 CONCOR ,14, (3.4) 3,64, ,21,0 JETAIRWAYS ,77, (19.1) 39,67, ,93,400 GODREJCP ,27, ,42, ,80,800 Sector Average ,77, ,21, ,56,3 Grand Total ,53, ,63, ,55,080 Stock Total ,44, ,42, ,42,6 Page 8 of 10

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