Amata Corporation - AMATA

Transcription

1 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apr-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apr-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Hopes pinned on 2HCY12 land sales momentum Bloomberg Reuters AMATA TB AMATA.BK Report type: Company Update Company Overview AMATA is mainly engaged in the industrial real estate development business. Its key industrial estates include Amata Nakorn in Chonburi Province and Amata City in Rayong Province. It also operates the power business through joint ventures. Management has maintained its full-year land sales target of 3,000 rai for CY12. More deals are expected to be closed in 2HCY12. Huge backlog would be a key profit driver for AMATA in 2HCY12. We leave our CY12 profit growth outlook for AMATA unchanged at 42%. For the meantime, we see a lack of fresh catalysts for earnings re-rating. We rate AMATA shares an ACCUMULATE with a target price of Bt18.50/share. What is the news? Even though YTD land sales came in at 1,200 rai, management has maintained its full-year land sales target of 3,000 rai for CY12. Currently AMATA is in talks with several prospective clients and it has already signed the letter of intent (LOI) with many clients to sell 2,000 rai of land. To meet the fullyear land sales target, AMATA expects to close the above deals within this year. How do we view this? Land sales target remains unchanged. However, sales remain slow compared to the target but much of the sales delays are largely blamed on the prolonged negotiations. In our view, the full-year land sales target is still within reach for AMATA as it has already signed the LOI with several prospective clients but much depends on the pace of land sales in 2HCY12. Investment Actions? For the meantime, we see a lack of fresh catalysts for earnings re-rating. Hopes are pinned on 2HCY12 land sales momentum to put AMATA on track to meet full-year target. Our target price remains unchanged at Bt18.50/share. We rate AMATA shares an ACCUMULATE. MICA (P) 012/01/2012 Ref. No.: SG2012_ of 9 Amata Corporation Amata - Previous Corporation Target Price (Bt) Phillip Securites Research Rating 2.00 Accumulate - Previous Rating 2.00 Accumulate Target Price (Bt) Rating Closing Price (Bt) Accumulate - Expected Previous Capital RatingGains (%) 8.2% 2.00 Accumulate Target Expected Price Dividend (Bt) Yield (%) % - Expected Previous Target Total Return Price (Bt) (%) % Closing Raw Beta Price (Past (Bt) 2yrs w eekly data) Expected Market Cap. Capital (USD Gains mn) (%) 8.2% 581 Expected Enterprise Dividend Value (USD Yield mn) (%) 1.5% 792 Expected Market Cap. Total (Bt mn) Return (%) 18, % Raw Enterprise Beta (Past Value 2yrs (Bt mn) w eekly data) 24, Market 3M Average Cap. (USD Daily T/O mn) (mn) Enterprise 52 w eek range Value (USD mn) Market Closing Cap. Price (Bt in 52 mn) w eek range 18,246 Enterprise Value (Bt mn) 24,906 0% 50% 100% 3M Average Daily T/O (mn) w eek range Closing Price in 52 w eek range Major Shareholders (%) 1. CG Vikrom Report Krommadit Thai NVDR (Excellent) STATE STREET BANK AND TRUST FOR AUSTRALIA 5.2 Key Financial Summary CG FYEReport /10 12/11 12/12F 12/13F Revenue (Btmn) (Excellent) 3,128 3,824 5,723 6,267 Net Profit (Btmn) ,324 1,621 Key EPS (Bt) Financial Summary FYE Net Profit, adj. (Btmn) / / /12F 1, /13F 1,621 Revenue EPS, adj. (Bt) (Btmn) 3, , , , Net P/E (X),adj. Profit (Btmn) , , EPS BVPS (Bt) (Bt) Net P/B Profit, (X) adj. (Btmn) , , EPS, DPS (Bt) adj. (Bt) P/E Div. (X),adj. Yield (%) BVPS Source: (Bt) Bloomberg, PSR est P/B *All multiples (X) & yields based on current 3.0market price DPS (Bt) Div. Valuation Yield (%) Method Source: P/E'12 (14X) Bloomberg, PSR est. *All multiples & yields based on current market price Valuation Method P/E'12 (14X) 0% 50% 100% Volume, mn AMATA TB EQUITY SETI rebased 0 Major Shareholders (%) 1. Vikrom Krommadit Thai NVDR 8.7 Volume, mn AMATA TB EQUITY SETI rebased 3. STATE STREET BANK AND TRUST FOR AUSTRALIA 5.2 Analyst Phillip Research Team research@phillip.com.sg

2 Thailand Equities Research Management reaffirms CY12 land sales target of 3,000 rai, more deals expected to be closed in 2HCY12 YTD land sales came in at 1,200 rai, accounting for less than 50% of the full-year sales target of 3,000 rai. However, management has kept its full-year land sales target for CY12 unchanged at 3,000 rai as AMATA is currently in talks with several prospective clients and it has already signed the letter of intent (LOI) with many clients to sell 2,000 rai of land. These potential deals are expected to be closed and contracts to be signed in 2HCY12, putting AMATA on track to meet the full-year sales target. Huge backlog seen as key profit driver in 2HCY12, full-year earnings growth outlook unchanged at 42% AMATA posted 1HCY12 profit growth of 39% y-y. Earnings growth momentum is also likely to continue into 2HCY12, putting AMATA on track to meet our full-year earnings growth target of 42%. Backlog at end-2qcy12 topped Bt5.4bn, of which Bt2.7bn would be realized as revenue in 2HCY12, up from Bt1.3bn in 1HCY12. On this basis, we reckon that 2HCY12 profit will be better than 1HCY12 on the back of higher revenue. Margins could be maintained at similar levels as the recent strong demand for industrial land allows AMATA to pass rising costs to clients through selling price increases. Land sales revenue is expected to jump 70% y-y to Bt4.1bn in CY12. Utility revenue and rental income is projected to rise by 15%. Total revenue is predicted to grow 50% y-y. Margin should see a slight increase on strong demand and selling price increases but marketing expenses would also edge modestly higher after a recovery of the industrial land market from last year s severe floods at the beginning of the year. Overall, we leave our CY12 profit growth outlook for AMATA unchanged at 42% though industrial land sales visibility remains low. AMATA has guided for CY12 land sales growth of 5%-10%. If land sales meet the full-year target of 3,000 rai, we think 2HCY12 land sales are unlikely to be realized within this year and to be booked into backlog carried forward into CY13. On this basis, we expect its land sales revenue to grow sequentially by 12% in CY13. Margin may not be a cause for concern as selling price increases this year should drive margins higher next year. We forecast AMATA to deliver sequential earnings growth of 22% y-y in CY13. ACCUMULATE rating with Bt18.50/share target price For the meantime, we see a lack of fresh catalysts for earnings re-rating. Hopes are pinned on 2HCY12 land sales momentum to put AMATA on track to meet full-year target. Our target price remains unchanged at Bt18.50/share based on historical P/E average of 15x. We rate AMATA shares an ACCUMULATE. 2 of 9

3 Thailand Equities Research FYE Dec CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12F CY13F Valuation Ratios P/E (X), adj P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X), adj Dividend Yield (%) Per share data (Bt) EPS, reported EPS, adj DPS BVPS Grow th & Margins (%) Grow th Revenue EBITDA EBIT Net Income, adj Margins EBITDA margin EBIT margin Net Profit Margin Key Ratios ROE (%) ROA (%) Net Debt-Cash 4,887 4,203 5,691 5,083 4,451 Net Gearing(X) Income Statement (Bt mn) Revenue 2,289 3,128 3,824 5,723 6,267 EBITDA 771 1,194 1,505 2,367 2,715 Depreciation & Amortisation EBIT ,315 2,139 2,444 Net Finance (Expense)/Income (262) (239) (293) (372) (343) Other items Associates & JVs (1) Profit Before Tax ,259 1,904 2,271 Taxation (44) (173) (177) (372) (462) Profit After Tax ,082 1,532 1,809 Non-controlling Interest Net Income, reported ,324 1,621 Net Income, adj ,324 1,621 Source: PSR est. 3 of 9

4 Thailand Equities Research FYE Dec CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12F CY13F Balance Sheet (Bt mn) Cash 971 1,099 1,543 1,742 1,295 ST Investments Accounts Receivables Inventories 4,395 4,113 5,198 7,005 8,079 Others Total current assets 6,158 5,495 7,014 9,137 9,643 PPE 3, ,126 1,368 1,417 Property Investments 0 1,953 2,071 2,104 2,181 Associates & JVs 36 1,127 1,136 1,233 1,323 Investments Others 2,845 4,896 6,572 7,199 8,199 Total non-current assets 6,824 8,885 11,104 12,105 13,321 Total Assets 12,982 14,381 18,118 21,242 22,963 Short term loans 1,992 2,596 3,087 2,696 2,816 Accounts Payables Others 549 1,651 2,152 3,685 4,108 Total current liabilities 2,729 4,568 5,618 6,870 7,319 Long term loans 3,866 2,707 4,147 4,129 2,929 Others ,613 1,879 1,879 Total liabilities 7,181 8,271 11,378 12,878 12,127 Non-controlling interest ,110 1,298 Shareholder Equity 5,091 5,441 6,024 7,254 9,539 Cashflow Statements (Bt mn) CFO PBT ,259 1,810 2,083 Adjustments Cash from ops before WC changes 589 1,242 1,531 2,223 2,527 WC changes 421 1, (624) Cash generated from ops 1,010 2,611 2,173 2,939 1,903 Taxes paid, net (76) (92) (231) (365) (462) Interest paid (260) (239) (277) (370) (343) Cashflow from ops 675 2,281 1,664 2,205 1,097 CFI CAPEX, net (420) (175) (352) (290) (236) Dividends from associates & JVs Dividends/Interest from Investments Purchase/sale of investments (200) 0 0 Investments in subs & associates 0 (308) Others (359) (892) (2,459) (1,278) (972) Cashflow from investments (695) (1,281) (2,883) (1,529) (1,128) CFF Share issuance Purchase of treasury shares Loans, net of repayments 523 (552) 1,932 (409) (1,080) Dividends to minority interests 0 (32) (96) Dividends to shareholders & capital reduction (107) (267) (160) (427) 0 Others Cashflow from financing 440 (851) 1,676 (477) (416) Net change in cash (448) Effects of exchange rates (1) (21) (14) 0 0 CCE, end 971 1,099 1,543 1,742 1,295 Source: PSR est. 4 of 9

5 Dec-12 Sep-12 Jun-12 Mar-12 Dec-11 Sep-11 Jun-11 Mar-11 Dec-10 Sep-10 Jun-10 Thailand Equities Research Ratings History Target Price Market Price Source: Bloomberg, PSR Phillip Group Rating System Total Returns Recommendation Rating > +20% Buy 1 +5% to +20% Accumulate/Trading Buy 2-5% to +5% Neutral 3-5% to -20% Reduce/Trading Sell 4 >-20% Sell 5 Remarks We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk rew ard profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation 5 of 9

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