Call and Webcast 4 th Quarter and FY 2018 Financial Results January 29, 2019

Transcription

1 1 st Earnings Conference Call and Webcast 4 th Quarter and FY 2018 Financial Results January 29,

2 Safe Harbor Statement* This presentation contains statements that are not historical facts but rather forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of Such forward-looking statements include those that address activities, events or developments that Autoliv, Inc. or its management believes or anticipates may occur in the future. All forwardlooking statements, are based upon our current expectations, various assumptions and/or data available from third parties. Our expectations and assumptions are expressed in good faith and we believe there is a reasonable basis for them. However, there can be no assurance that such forward-looking statements will materialize or prove to be correct as forwardlooking statements are inherently subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual future results, performance or achievements to differ materially from the future results, performance or achievements expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as estimates, expects, anticipates, projects, plans, intends, believes, may, likely, might, would, should, could, or the negative of these terms and other comparable terminology, although not all forward-looking statements contain such words. Because these forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, the outcome could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements for a variety of reasons, including without limitation, changes in light vehicle production; fluctuation in vehicle production schedules for which the Company is a supplier, changes in general industry and market conditions or regional growth or decline; changes in and the successful execution of our capacity alignment, restructuring and cost reduction initiatives and the market reaction thereto; loss of business from increased competition; higher raw material, fuel and energy costs; changes in consumer and customer preferences for end products; customer losses; changes in regulatory conditions; customer bankruptcies, consolidations, or restructurings; divestiture of customer brands; unfavorable fluctuations in currencies or interest rates among the various jurisdictions in which we operate; component shortages; market acceptance of our new products; costs or difficulties related to the integration of any new or acquired businesses and technologies; continued uncertainty in pricing negotiations with customers; successful integration of acquisitions and operations of joint ventures; successful implementation of strategic partnerships and collaborations; our ability to be awarded new business; product liability, warranty and recall claims and investigations and other litigation and customer reactions thereto; (including the resolution of the Toyota recall); higher expenses for our pension and other postretirement benefits, including higher funding requirements for our pension plans; work stoppages or other labor issues; possible adverse results of pending or future litigation or infringement claims; our ability to protect our intellectual property rights; negative impacts of antitrust investigations or other governmental investigations and associated litigation relating to the conduct of our business; tax assessments by governmental authorities and changes in our effective tax rate; dependence on key personnel; legislative or regulatory changes impacting or limiting our business; political conditions; dependence on and relationships with customers and suppliers; and other risks and uncertainties identified under the headings Risk Factors and Management s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in our Annual Reports and Quarterly Reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q and any amendments thereto. For any forward-looking statements contained in this or any other document, we claim the protection of the safe harbor for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, and we assume no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events, except as required by law. (*) Non-US GAAP reconciliations are disclosed in our regulatory filings available at or 2

3 Autoliv 2018 Achievements and Challenges Strong order intake and outperformance of light vehicle production for new Autoliv New executive management team in place Veoneer spin-off in July Improved focus and flexibility for both companies (culture, people, business) Light vehicle market in China under pressure in second half of the year New emission test protocol in Europe with volatile light vehicle production in second half of the year Above market growth from strong order intake since 2015 Continued high order intake supporting our strong market position longer term 3

4 Target update Sales and profitability capacity unchanged Target update IHS Global Light Vehicle Production Forecast Million units Global light vehicle sales and production slowdown Headwinds from other external factors such as raw material 100 (3) M (5) M Do not expect to reach targets of >10bn and ~13% adj. operating margin* in 2020 We expect improvement towards our targets in Targets remain unchanged 80 Sales and profitability capacity is unchanged Sales: >$10 billion Adj. EBIT margin*: ~13% Timing is beyond Sept Jan * non-u.s. GAAP measure excluding capacity alignment and antitrust related costs.

5 Annual Sales (MUSD) Order Intake Momentum Remains Strong Around 50% Order Intake Share Continued In 2018 Order Intake Annualized Sales and Share 2018 order intake in line with A-18A Market share gains within all product areas and regions compared to today s level Major wins with all leading OEMs ~50% ~50% >50% ~50% Several new contracts for front center airbags Some OEMs making rear side airbags standard ~37% Knee airbag growth accelerates Contracts with new emerging EV manufacturers 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 5

6 Q4 18 Highlights Above market growth supported by strong order intake since 2015 Organic sales* growth >4%, ~10 pp better than LVP** Execution on strong order book Launches on track although launch related costs remain on the high levels seen in Q3 Strong performance with transplants in North America partly offset weak performance in other regions Unfavorable market fundamentals taking its toll on global auto demand/production Unprecedented weakness in China Continued volatility in Europe Flexibility in our Chinese operations mitigated effects from lower than expected sales Accrued $210 million in connection with the remaining portion of the EC investigation Operating cash flow on a high level despite weaker than expected market conditions Ongoing actions to mitigate market softening and reduce elevated costs related to product launches Raw material headwinds persist (*) Non-US GAAP measures exclude costs for capacity alignments, antitrust related matters and and separation of our business segments, (**) Light Vehicle Production (LVP) according to January 17,

7 Q4 18 Financial Highlights Step-up in sales growth from strong order book Consolidated Sales $ million Adjusted Operating Income* $ million Reported EPS $ >4%** ~(5)% 2, (3.32) 2.26 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 17 Q4 18 (1.06) (*) Non-US GAAP measures exclude costs for capacity alignments, antitrust related matters and and separation of our business segments, (**) Organic sales growth Non-US GAAP measure. 7

8 Q4 18 Sales Growth Sales Bridge Regional Organic Growth** $ million +1.6% Org. growth** +4.2% EUROPE (6.4)% LVP* (5)% JAPAN 6.4% LVP* 3% AMERICAS 18.9% LVP* (0)% CHINA (3.7)% LVP* (15)% REST OF ASIA 13% LVP* 8% 8 (*) Light Vehicle Production (LVP) according to January 17, 2019, (**) Non-US GAAP measure.

9 Q Key Model Launches Toyota RAV4 Chevrolet Blazer BMW 3-Series Honda Passport BMW X7 Kia Telluride Geely SX11 Hyundai Palisade Tata Harrier 9

10 Number of Launches Product Launches per Quarter Q1 19 is expected to increase 20% YoY +20% 250 ~710 ~ ~

11 FY 19 - Key Models Contributing to the ramp-up of sales growth Honda CR-V VW T-Cross Honda Crider U.S. Truck Ford Ranger VW Passat Nissan Altima EU Car Audi Q3 Renault Captur Nissan Quashqai/Rogue Sport 11

12 Market Conditions Q4 18 Softening of Major light vehicle markets China Chinese** light vehicle registrations declined by 14%, making it a sixth consecutive monthly decline LVP declined by 15%, this was more than 12 pp lower than expected in October by IHS Americas US SAAR** rebounded slightly. Inventories remain flat YoY* at ~3.8 million units, or ~61 days by the end of the quarter LVP* was flat, with North America increasing 2% while South America declining 9%. For the region this was 4 pp lower than expected in the beginning of the quarter Europe EU28** light vehicle registrations fell by 8%, on WLTP related issues and uncertainty among endconsumers on what drivetrain technology to choose LVP* in the important WEU* fell by ~9%, 6 pp lower than expected, while production in EEU* increased by 4% Other In South America, strong Brazil sales were not enough to outweigh plummeting sales in Argentina and Uruguay Light Vehicle sales Japan increased in Japan by more than 5% Light Vehicle Sales LTM** Q4 18 global LVP was 23.2 million units, ~1.5 million units lower than the October forecast (*) Light Vehicle Production (LVP) according to January 17, 2019, Year over Year (YoY), Rest of Asia (RoA), Western Europe (WEU), Eastern Europe (EEU), Last Twelve Months (LTM), (**) Source: ACEA, Ward s Auto, CAAM, CADA. 12

13 Q4 18 Financial Overview (US $ Millions unless specified) Q4 18 Q4 17 Sales $2,193 $2,159 Gross Profit $ % $ % Operating Income 1 $ % $ % EPS (assuming dilution) $(1.06) $2.26 RoCE 1,2 26% n/a RoE 1,2 24% n/a Operating cash flow Cont. Ops $289 n/a Dividend per share $0.62 $0.60 Global LVP 3 (annual rate) ~93M ~98M (1) Non-US GAAP measures exclude costs for capacity alignments, antitrust related matters and separation of our business segments. (2) Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) and Return on Equity (RoE), (3) Light Vehicle Production (LVP) according to January 17,

14 Adj. Operating Margin* Bridge Q4 18 vs. Prior Year (0.9)pp Adj. EBIT* (5.4)% 70 bps (80) bps (80) bps (*) Non-US GAAP measure excludes costs for capacity alignments, antitrust related matters and separation of our business segments. 14

15 FY 18 Financial Overview (US $ Millions unless specified) FY 18 FY 17 Sales $8,678 $8,137 Gross Profit $1, % $1, % Operating Income 1 $ % $ % EPS (assuming dilution) $4.31 $6.68 RoCE 1,2 22% n/a RoE 1,2 20% n/a Operating cash flow Cont. Ops $806 $870 Dividend per share $2.46 $2.38 Global LVP 3 91M 92M 1) Non-US GAAP measures exclude costs for capacity alignments, antitrust related matters and separation of our business segments. (2) Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) and Return on Equity (RoE), (3) Light Vehicle Production (LVP) according to January 17,

16 Adj. Operating Margin* Bridge FY 18 vs. Prior Year (0.6)pp Adj. EBIT* 1.0% (10) bps (40) bps (10) bps Adjusted Operating Margin of 10.5% includes ~50 bps increase in Raw material and Currency impact (*) Non-US GAAP measure excludes costs for capacity alignments, antitrust related matters and separation of our business segments. 16

17 Cash Flow including discontinued operations* Investments for growth and shareholder returns (US $ Millions unless specified) Q4 18 Q Net Income (91) (56) Depreciation & Amortization*** Other, net 219 (4) 239 (27) 1 0 Change in operating WC** (229) (0) (78) (26) Operating cash flow Capital Expenditures, net (133) (168) (555) (570) (499) (450) Free cash flow** Acquisitions, net**** Dividends paid Shares repurchased Operating Cash Flow Q4 18 of $289M, indicate a ~120% Cash conversion on Adjusted EBIT (*) include discontinued operations up until the second quarter of 2018, (**) Non-US GAAP measure, before acquisitions, reconciliation of free cash flow is provided above, (***) Includes one-time Goodwill impairment charge related to the ANBS JV in 2017, (****) includes investments in affiliates. 17

18 EPS development Q4 18 vs. Prior Year Earnings per Share $ Earnings per Share excluding items affecting comparability* $ $2.26 $(3.32) $2.29 (38)% $1.42 The main negative items impacting EPS were ~240 cents from anti-trust accrual ~44 cents from discrete tax items ~24 cents from higher tax rate ~12 cents from lower adjusted operating income* Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 17 Q4 18 ($1.06) -$1.06 (*) Non-US GAAP measures exclude costs for capacity alignments, antitrust related matters and separation of our business segments. Assuming dilution. 18

19 Strong Balance Sheet and Prudent Financial Policy Committed to Maintain Strong Investment Grade Rating Supported by High FCF Conversion Net Debt/ EBITDA * x x Provided $1B of cash liquidity for Veoneer at time of spin-off EC Antitrust cash-out of $210m would effect by around 0.2 up S&P long-term credit rating A- (negative outlook) Q1 19 dividend set at unchanged level 1.0 Long-Term Target: 1.0x x Long-Term Range Focus unchanged 0.5 Prudent balance sheet Shareholder friendly capital allocation 0.0 Q4 13 Q4 14 Q4 15 Q4 16 Q4 17 Q4 18 Primary tools remain buybacks and dividends Long term target remains Net Debt/ EBITDA of 1.0x (*) Autoliv Inc. group statistics, prior to spin; Non-US GAAP measure, Leverage Ratio and Net Debt includes Pension Liability. 19

20 Market Development 2019 Light Vehicle Production Outlook Challenging first half year with recovery projected for second half year Light Vehicle production in North America is expected to be flat or slightly down The WLTP impact in Europe appears on track to fade over the coming months. LVP is expected to stabilize with potential for growth in H2 depending on the Brexit outcome In China, without any government driven stimulus, we see a downside risk to IHS LVP outlook, especially in Q1 but potentially also in Q2 Region IHS: 2019 Light Vehicle Production* Millions Units Q1 19 FY 19 YoY Chg. Millions Units YoY Chg. China 5.9 (9)% % Japan 2.5 5% 9.2 1% RoA* 3.3 1% % North America 4.1 0% 15.7 (1)% South America 0.8 1% 3.6 6% Europe 5.6 (5)% % Global 22.8 (4)% % 20 FY 19 global LVP forecasted to 92.3 million vehicles (*) Light Vehicle Production (LVP) according to January 17, 2019, Year over Year (YoY), Rest of Asia (RoA), (**) Source: ACEA, Ward s Auto, CAAM, CADA.

21 Financial Outlook 2019 Full year indication Indication Organic sales growth* ~5% FX ~(1)% Consolidated sales, net ~4% Adjusted Operating margin* ~10.5% Tax rate ~28% Operating Cash flow Higher than 2018** Capex % of sales Lower than 2018** Exchange rates*** FY 19 EUR / US$ 1,1416 US$ / JPY 108,57 US$ / KRW 1121 US$ / MXN 19,00 US$ / CNY 6,76 R,D&E, net % of sales Lower than 2018** Leverage ratio by year end Well within range (*) Non-US GAAP measures exclude costs for capacity alignments, antitrust related matters and separation of our business segments, (**) Compared to 2018 Continuing Operations (***) Mid-January 2019 exchange rates, 21

22 Our focus for 2019 Continue to Execute on Strong Order Book Product Launch Effectiveness Productivity Development Monitor and Manage Light Vehicle Market Volatility Secure Our New and Stronger Market Position Save More Lives 22

23 Each year, Autoliv s products save over 30,000 lives autoliv.com

24 Appendix 24

25 Q4 18 Product Volumes Strong volume growth in Frontal airbags Autoliv Quantities Delivered (Millions unless specified) Q4 18 vs. PY** (%) Seatbelts 37.7 (6)% Pretensioners (of which) 18.5 (6)% Active Seatbelts (of which) % Frontal Airbags % Knee Airbags (of which) 1.4 6% Side Airbags % Chest (Thorax) % Head (Curtain) % Steering Wheels 5.4 8% LVP* (Triad) 9.7 (2)% LVP* (Global) 23.2 (5.3)% (*) Light Vehicle Production (LVP) according to January 17, 2019, TRIAD (Western Europe, North America, Japan), (**) Prior Year (PY). 25

26 Definition of Symbols Driver and/or Passenger airbags Seatbelts Side airbags Steering Wheel Head/Inflatable Curtain airbags Knee airbag 26