Russia as a new member of the WTO. dr. Péter P. Balás DDG Trade Prague, November 2012
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1 Russia as a new member of the WTO dr. Péter P. Balás DDG Trade Prague, November
2 Overview Why Russia s WTO accession is important? Russia as an economic partner of the EU The Russian accession process Russia and the Customs Union Major areas of Russia s commitments EU-Russia bilateral agreements What comes next? Perspectives of EU-Russia economic relations How Member States and industry can be more involved 2
3 2. The EU is the biggest trading power 16 % of world trade in 2011 First exporter A MAJOR TRADING POWER Largest importer Leader in foreign direct investment: EU-27 both major recipient and source of FDI 3
4 The EU in The World EU external Trade ( , millions of euro, excl. Intra EU Trade) Exports Imports Balance Source: Eurostat (Comext, Statistical regime 4) 4
5 The EU in The World Top 10 EU Major Exports Partner (2011, billions of euro) United States China Sw itzerland Russia Turkey 72.7 Japan Norw ay India Brazil United Arab Emirates Source: Eurostat (Comext, Statistical regime 4) 5
6 The EU in The World Top 10 EU Major Exports Partner (2011, %) United States 17.0% Other 41.0% China 8.9% United Arab Emirates 2.1% Sw itzerland 7.9% Russia 7.1% Brazil 2.3% India 2.6% Norw ay 3.0% Japan 3.2% Turkey 4.7% Source: Eurostat (Comext, Statistical regime 4) 6
7 The EU in The World Top 10 EU Major Imports Partner (2011, billions of euro) China Russia United States Norway Switzerland Japan 67.5 Turkey India Brazil South Korea Source: Eurostat (Comext, Statistical regime 4) 7
8 The EU in The World Top 10 EU Major Imports Partner (2011, %) China 17.3% Other 35.5% Russia 11.8% South Korea 2.1% Brazil 2.2% India 2.3% Turkey 2.8% Japan 4.0% Sw itzerland 5.4% Norw ay 5.5% United States 10.9% Source: Eurostat (Comext, Statistical regime 4) 8
9 The EU & Russia EU Trade with Russia ( , millions of euro) Exports Imports Balance Source: Eurostat (Comext, Statistical regime 4) 9
10 Russia and EU Russia Exports (millions of USD) (11m) EU Rest of the World Source: Rosstat 10
11 Russia and EU 100% Russia Imports (millions of USD, %) 90% 80% 70% 60% % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (11m) Rest of the World World Source: Rosstat 11
12 The EU & Russia EU Exports to Russia - Sectoral Breakdown (2010, %) Clothing 2,9% Textiles 1,0% Other manufactures 9,0% Other products 1,7% Agricultural products 11,0% Fuels and mining products 1,5% Iron and steel 2,1% Chemicals 18,1% M achinery and transport equipment 44,7% Other semi-manufactures 8,1% Source: Eurostat (Comext, Statistical regime 4) 12
13 The EU & Russia EU Imports from Russia Sectoral Breakdown (2010, %) Other manufactures 0,2% M achinery and transport equipment 0,8% Textiles 0,0% Clothing 0,0% Other products 9,9% Agricultural products 1,7% Other semi-manufactures 1,9% Chemicals 2,9% Iron and steel 2,7% Fuels and mining products 79,7% Source: Eurostat (Comext, Statistical regime 4) 13
14 The EU & Russia EU FDI Stocks with Russia (billions of euro) Outwards Stocks Inwards Stocks Source: Eurostat (NewCronos) Note: EU is EU15 ( ), EU25 ( ), EU27 (2004-) 14
15 Russia and EU 100% 80% EU accumulated Investment in Russia as of September 2011 (millions of USD, %) % 40% % 0% Total Investment Direct Portfolio Other EU Rest of the World Source: Rosstat 15
16 3. Russia s accession process Launched in 1993, up to 1999 preparatory phase More intensive negotiations from 2000 MA commitments with major partners: Protectionist trends from 2007: AG policies, XDs : anti-crisis measures June 2009: formation of CU Early 2010 relaunch - Russia alone CU challenges WPR redrafting Decision at MC8 in December 2011 Member since August 22,
17 Accession commitments GOODS Market access Industry, imports Overall tariff average reduced from 10 to 7,8% (EEs) Industrial tariffs: from 9,5 to 7,3 % Implementing all sectoral liberalisation (incl. ITA) Implementation period max. 7/8 years Commitment to start GPA accession in 4 years 17
18 Import Tariffs - Industry Import duties: Average FBR 7.8%: Industry 7.3% Reduced from the average applied rate of 10% in 2011 The lowest amongst BRIC countries Implementation periods for nearly half of tariff lines Sectors which will benefit most: ITA: Ave FBR 0%; reduction by 5.5% Ceramics: Ave FBR 12.2%; reduction by 5.4% Vehicles and parts: Ave FBR 8.3%; reduction by 4.2% (BUT 7-year IP) Paper: Ave FBR 7.6%; reduction by 3.7% Also Textiles (7.7%), Pharmaceuticals (4.3%), Glass (11.1%) will benefit from approx. 2% reduction Ave FBR for Medical, Agricultural and Construction equipment, Footwear and Chemicals will be bound at 4-5% 18
19 Export measures Industry Export restrictions General: administrative measures, bans prohibited, except shortage Export duties: Non-traditional commitment to bind rates for 700-odd products part of Goods Schedule Mainly concerns raw materials: Gas/oil products, plastic, hides and skins, precious stones and metals, base metals, fish etc. Commitments stronger than those of KSA, Ukraine but not going as far as with China Will stop the tendency to use XD as industrial and fiscal measure of Unbound products subject to bilateral Agreement on raw materials Export TRQ regime EU, bilateral Exports of coniferous wood EU specific quota reserved Licensing management elaborated in bilateral Agreement and Protocol 19
20 Import tariffs - Agriculture Russia very important, 2nd export market for EU Agricultural tariffs: from 13,2 to 10,8%, transition periods Import TRQs for most sensitive products Meat products in-quota vs out-of-quota rates Beef: 15% vs 55% (EU specific quota reserved) Pork: 0% vs 65 (BUT flat MFN rate 25% from 2020) Some Poultry products: 25% vs 80% (EU specific quota for Boneless Poultry Meat) Some whey products: 10% vs 15% 20
21 Subsidies Industrial Subsidies: No exemption granted All subsidies will have to be WTO-compatible from the date of accession Agriculture Subsidies: Domestic Support: Capped at 9 bi USD in 2012 Gradually reduced to 4.4 bi USD by 2018 Export subsidies bound at zero Currently applied VAT exemptions will have to be eliminated 21
22 Market Access - SERVICES Commitments: Very important opening in certain key sectors: Financial (insurance, banking, securities..) Telecommunication Transport Postal Courier Distribution Tourism Professional services (legal, auditing, architectural, engineering, medical..) Construction Energy related (only consulting on services incidental to mining and distribution) Computer services - etc. Mode 4 movement of intra-corporate transferees and business visitors 22
23 Regulatory commitments Prompt, full respect of WTO rules, mostly without transition periods, (but TRIMs, FEZ) No specific conditions, monitoring arrangements (unlike China) MET treatment from WTO members (EU since 2004) Some limited WTO+ rules (transparency or pricing, etc.) 23
24 Regulatory Commitments Trading rights Customs Facilitation Pricing Policy Intellectual Property Protection State-trading Enterprises Technical Barriers to Trade Sanitary and Phyto-sanitary regulation Trade Related Investment measures Transparency 24
25 EU-Russia WTO+ bilateral agreements Mostly based on WTO obligations, but not part of Russia s WTO commitments Bilateral agreements with separate institutional, DS mechanism TRIMS partial compensation for effects of Russia investment policies for cars Wood TRQ administration Raw materials unbound XDs Bilateral and internal implementation regime needed by time of accession Plus: maritime services (linked to PCA) 25
26 Benefits of WTO accession - EU After years of protectionist measures liberalising market access for goods Disciplines on export measures - XDs Better access for services Disciplines on subsidies, NTBs Reform of broader economic policies Enforcable commitments (DS) More attractive business/investment environment Stronger rule of law 26
27 Benefits of WTO accession - Russia Political-economic prestige Becoming part of rule-making (DDA) More attractive business environment More safety for long-term, high-tech investments Better IPR protection: more R/D Chance to diversify production/exports Market access improvements (steel) Multilateral DS for problems 27
28 BUT - First experiences worrying Except for transitional commitments, all entered into force promptly Reduction of (most) tariffs, new CET affecting also KAZ and BY Delivery on political promise protecting Russian producers from the effects of tariff reductions 28
29 Concerns Change of tariff bindings in the CET Recycling fee for vehicles Partial implementation of wood export regime Continued misuse of SPS measures Questions about energy pricing and XDs Regulation of alcoholic drinks Continued pressure for illegal TRIMs GOOD as a last resort, all subject to DS 29
30 Perspectives of bilateral economic relations First priority: Full implementation of WTO PCA basis of bilateral economic relations weak disciplines/enforcement Since accession: basis - WTO relationship Next step: new PCA New Agreement Trade/investment provisions major elements of EU mandate BUT different views, after 4 years no real progress, blocking whole NA process (1) Contents of NA (regulatory issues) (2) Role of CU and EAEC For mid-term, NA is only option FTA: not for near future economic and legal (CU) reasons 30
31 Russia and its Customs Union For now 3 members, but intention to enlarge Political-strategic, as much as economic considerations CU now Eurasian Economic Union Russian doll : CU Eurasec CIS FT zone Eurasian Economic Commission, Febr 1 Model of EU: institutions, rules Fast progress Single Economic Space (EU s IM) foreseen by 2015 Goal: all 4 freedoms, but over time so far goods (but no XDs, IPR, GP) Challenge: only RU is WTO member 31
32 CU implications of Russia s WTO membership Since 2010 common import tariffs (largely based on Russia s applied duties) Russia s tariff commitments also bind max. CU tariffs Since August 2012 new CET CU covered regulatory issues TBT, SPS, customs administration, TDI For all CU competences intra-cu agreement, BUT KAZ/BY still no direct WTO obligations PLUS: For 2, outside CU competence, not even indirect commitments: XDs, services, GP 32
33 Thanks for the attention 33
34 Trading rights Regulatory Aspects /1 Registration rights defined Licensing disciplines: Import Licensing Agreement full application from the date of accession Abolition of unjustified use of non-automatic licensing (alcoholic beverages, pharmaceuticals, goods with encryption technologies) Defined use of automatic licensing (permits) 34
35 Regulatory Aspects /2 Customs Facilitation: Customs Valuation Agreement applies from the date of accession Abolition of use of reference or minimum prices at customs valuation Efficient procedures at the customs Proportionality and non-discrimination while applying procedures Abolition of unjustified imposition of product-specific customs check-points Not permitted to impose country-specific customs check-points (import or export) unless rules permit Transparency and justification for customs fees (commensurate to services rendered) Energy goods subject to common transit rules Effective right of appeal against administrative decisions 35
36 Regulatory Aspects /3 Pricing Policy (WTO+): General commitment not to use pricing policy to afford protection to domestic goods industry or undermine services concessions Railway transportation: National treatment for import and export from 1 July 2013 Full application of Art V GATT for transit Transparency on transit fees Gas pricing: Application of cost + investment + profit formula for gas supplied to domestic industrial consumers 36
37 Regulatory Aspects /4 Intellectual Property Protection: Full application of TRIPS from the day of accession = respect of key rights for : copyrights holders, software, motion pictures, sound recording, patents, trademarks, trade secrets, test data.. National treatment with regard to fees for patents and TM registration Enforcement commitments Ex-officio actions Actions against piracy, including via internet Fair and equitable administrative procedures, border measures and criminal procedures 37
38 Regulatory Aspects /5 State-trading enterprises: Act in line with WTO rules when engaged in commercial activities Monopolies not prohibited, but subject to general rules (difficult to enforce ) Notification commitment 38
39 Regulatory Aspects /6 TBT Russia from accession fully applies the obligations of the TBT Agreement National treatment/ non-discrimination No creation of unnecessary obstacles to international trade; for that, TR must not be more trade-restrictive than necessary to fulfil a legitimate objective (non-exhaustive list of such legitimate objectives included, e.g. national security, health and safety, environment) Available scientific and technical information to be considered in risk-assessment (Art. 2.2) Relevant international standards to be used where possible 39
40 Regulatory Aspects /7 SPS WTO allows health, sanitary, phyto-sanitary measures for protection of health (humans, animals, plants), but not to limit imports, protect farmers If permitted objectives followed, can be selective, discriminatory potential for abuse. Frequent DS Since 2004, especially 2007 (AGRI strategy) Russia increasingly applies SPS measures with clearly protectionist motives WTO obligations to be respected from accession, with much detailed commitments Special difficulty: parallel CU regulation 40
41 Regulatory Aspects /8 TRIMs WTO prohibits investment policy to be used for trade-restrictive purposes Russia, as important investment destination so far heavily relied on prohibited TRIMs (vehicles, agri machinery, chemial/pharma, etc.) Special exemption for TRIMs: cars and commercial vehicles until 2018, based on present contracts Additional bilateral commitment towards EU: in case of decreasing imports of parts and components, additional duty-free TRQ to be opened (EU + MFN) 41
42 Regulatory Aspects /9 Transparency Special importance due to Russia s often difficult business/investment environment To ensure transparent and predictable trade and investment climate Introduced definition of normative legal acts (not letters, telegrams, teletype messages etc.) Obligations: To publish draft legislation for public consultation well in advance of adoption To promptly publish acts once adopted No entry into force of legislation prior to publication To establish enquiry points for public queries Ensure notification of measures (privatisation programme, customs fees, state set prices, TRIMS, Subsidies, Rules of Origin, Licensing requirements, TDI etc.) 42
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