It's What You Learn After You Know It All That Counts.
|
|
- Hortense Smith
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 It's What You Learn After You Know It All That Counts. January 23, 2013 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James It s What You Learn After You Know It All That Counts. Earl Weaver, former manager of the Baltimore Orioles January is the time of year when strategists, economists, gurus, etc. all join in on the annual nonsense of predicting What s going to happen in the markets for 2013? For many, this ritual is an ego trip, yet as Benjamin Graham inferred forecasting where the markets will be a year from now is nothing more than rank speculation. Or as I have noted, You might as well flip a lucky penny. Manifestly, while forecasting is fun, it should in no way be construed as investment advice. That is why I try hard to avoid the annual guessing game and attempt to focus on what the markets are saying, which sectors look favorable, and which stocks I want to own in the new year. Listening to the message of the market in December 2011 produced this commentary in my 12/27/11 strategy report: Speaking to 2012, I remain steadfast in the belief there will be no recession, nor will Euroquake pull us into one. I also embrace the theme that the nation is moving in the direction of energy self-sufficiency and that an American manufacturing renaissance is taking place. Moreover, there appears to be the hint of a housing recovery, as well as a technology revolution. Combine these beliefs with the demographics of a baby boom echo, which should foster a new cadre of investors, and I think the SPX will have a mid-to-high single-digit return in If you layer in a 3% - 4% dividend yield on top of said return, the allure of equities becomes pretty compelling. While that diatribe did not produce a single-point target for the S&P 500 (SPX/ ) in 2012, it did target a total return range of between 9% and 13%. When overly pressed for a prediction, however, I tend to use the average yearly return for the SPX since 1926 of about 10% per year and add that to the SPX s December 31st closing price. In this year s case that would target Nevertheless, remember that over the past 86 years 5% per year of that return has come from earnings growth, 0.8% from price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple expansions, and a large 4.2% from dividends. Further, since 1926 the SPX has provided an average return of 15.4% when a Democrat was president versus 7.8% under Republican leaders. Still, those returns may be misleading since the Fed s monetary policy is Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 more important than who is president, but I digress. Verily, what is lost in the noise of the yearly soothsaying contest are some simple tenets of investing. One of the best examples of these tenets was published in The Financial Analysts Journal in It was penned by Arthur Ziekel (at the time head of Merrill Lynch Asset Management) as a letter to his daughter on investing. To wit: Personal portfolio management is not a competitive sport. It is, instead, an important individualized effort to achieve some predetermined financial goal balancing one s risk-tolerance level with the desire to enhance capital wealth. Good investment management practices are complex and time consuming, requiring discipline, patience, and consistency of application. Too many investors fail to follow some simple, time-tested tenets that improve the odds of achieving success and, at the same time, reduce the anxiety naturally associated with an uncertain undertaking. You can review these tenets on page three of this report. With these tenets in mind, I turn to the stock market s performance year-to-date, which shows some pretty impressive results with the D-J Industrials up 4.16%, the S&P 500 better by 4.19%, the NASDAQ Composite at +3.81%, and the economically sensitive D-J Transportation Average (TRAN/ ) leaping an eye-popping 7.32%. The Trannies Triumph has lifted that index to new alltime highs and in the process rendered one half of a Dow Theory buy signal, but the D-J Industrials would need to confirm with a similar new reaction high. Speaking to that, in last Friday s Morning Tack I wrote: While it s true a close above would be a new reaction high for the Industrials, I am not so certain it is a Dow Theory buy signal. Recall we faced a similar dilemma last May when numerous pundits trumpeted that the Dow had broken below a previous reaction low thus rendering a sell signal. I, however, stated that the reaction low being used was not correct and therefore no sell signal was given. We all know what happened from there. Fortunately, or unfortunately, the Dow failed to close above the point in question (last Thursday) so we begin the journey anew today, but with the market overbought, and out of internal energy, it still suggests a pause/correction is due. While early Friday morning those comments were generally correct, by Friday s close they were not because the D-J Industrial (INDU/ ) had indeed closed above the October 5, 2012 reaction high of Accordingly, I would give the market a half-hearted Dow Theory buy signal, but I would feel a whole lot better about it if the Dow had broken above its all-time closing high of recorded on 10/9/07. I would also feel better about it if the NYSE McClellan Oscillator was not so overbought and the stock market s internal energy was not entirely used up. Nevertheless, even a halfhearted buy signal deserves respect given the history of such signals. Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 To be sure, there are certain seers that eschew using Dow Theory on the premise the stocks in the Dow have been changed so much that Dow Theory doesn t work anymore; I totally disagree. Consider this; there was a Dow Theory sell signal on September 23, 1999 preceding a subsequent Dow Dive of about 30%. Then there was a buy signal in June of 2003 that led to a 52% rally followed by a Dow Theory sell signal on November 21, That signal, if taken, avoided a 49% Dow Debacle, which was finally reversed with a Dow Theory buy signal in July For the record, over the last 15 years the only Dow Theory false signal, at least by my method of interpretation, occurred in May of 2010 during the flash crash. That one-day crash of 1000 points turned out to be a four-standard deviation event, an occurrence that is supposed to happen once every 43 years. As for the here and now, last week the Industrials closed at their highest level since 10/31/07, thus confirming the Trannies traverse to new all-time highs. While the Industrials are not at all-time highs, an equal-weighted index of U.S. stocks is at all-time highs. Likewise, as chronicled in these missives, a number of other indices are at new all-time highs. Plainly, the reasons for such action are unprecedented liquidity from the central banks, strengthening auto and housing markets, better employment readings, improving corporate earnings, and a less dysfunctional government. To this last point, I held fast to the belief the fiscal cliff would see a last minute solution and have carried that belief forward to the debt ceiling debate. This time, however, we didn t have to arrive at a last minute cure because it appears the Republicans are going to approve extending the debt ceiling until a later date. As stated, once these twin Armageddons pass, and take their place on the great wall of media creations, investors will have to focus on economic fundamentals and corporate performance; and, here the message is improving noticeably. Accordingly, while I am probably a bit too cautious in the short-term for the aforementioned reasons (no internal energy and the overbought condition), there is nothing to suggest over the intermediate and longer-term stocks are not going to trade higher. A screening of Raymond James universe of stocks surfaces some names that look attractive both fundamentally and technically with favorable ratings from our fundamental analysts, as well as decent dividend yields: AmerisourceBergen (ABC/$45.85/Strong Buy); Apartment Investment & Management (AIV/$27.59/Outperform); Huntington Bancshares (HBAN/$7.00/Strong Buy); Newell Rubbermaid (NWL/$23.12/Strong Buy); Plum Creek Timber (PCL/$47.32/Outperform); Rayonier (RYN/$55.00/Strong Buy); and Valero Energy (VLO/$36.76/Strong Buy). The call for this week : The indices, in the short-term, are entirely out of internal energy and overbought. To me, that counsels for caution despite the half-hearted Dow Theory buy signal generated by last Friday s new reaction closing high by the Industrials, which confirmed the D-J Transports sprint to new all-time highs last week. Whatever happens in the near-term, there is nothing to suggest the path of least resistance is not higher over the intermediate and longer-term. Therefore, I would accumulate favored stocks, as well as the indices, on any ensuing pullbacks. P.S. I am in Dallas this week speaking at conferences and seeing accounts. I will be back next week. A fool and his money are soon parted. Investment capital becomes a perishable commodity if not handled properly. Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 Be serious. Pay attention to your financial affairs. Take an active, intensive interest. If you don t, why should anyone else? There is no free lunch. Risk and return are interrelated. Set reasonable objectives using history as a guide. All returns relate to inflation. Better to be safe than sorry. Never up, never in. Most investors underestimate the stress of a high-risk portfolio on the way down. Don t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify. Asset allocation determines the rate of return. Stocks beat bonds over time. Never overreach for yield. Remember, leverage works both ways. More money has been lost searching for yield than at the point of a gun (Ray DeVoe). Spend interest, never principal. If at all possible, take out less than comes in. Then, a portfolio grows in value and lasts forever. The other way around, it can be diminished quite rapidly. You cannot eat relative performance. Measure results on a total return, portfolio basis against your own objectives, not someone else s. Don t be afraid to take a loss. Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 Mistakes are part of the game. The cost price of a security is a matter of historical significance, of interest only to the IRS. Averaging down, which is different from dollar cost averaging, means the first decision was a mistake. It is a technique used to avoid admitting a mistake or to recover a loss against the odds. When in doubt, get out. The first loss is not the best but is also usually the smallest. Watch out for fads. Hula hoops and bowling alleys (among others) didn t last. There are no permanent shortages (or oversupply). Every trend creates its own countervailing force. Expect the unexpected. Act. Make decisions. No amount of information can remove all uncertainty. Have confidence in your moves. Better to be approximately right than precisely wrong. Take the long view. Don t panic under short-term transitory developments. Stick to your plan. Prevent emotion from overtaking reason. Market timing generally doesn t work. Recognize the rhythm of events. Remember the value of common sense. No system works all of the time. History is a guide, not a template. Arthur Ziekel, of Merrill Lynch Asset Management, in a letter to his daughter dated October 17, 1994 Raymond James Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
6 Page 6, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
Investment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com January 22, 2013 "It's What You Learn After You Know It All That Counts." Earl Weaver,
More informationGo Opposite to Hysteria
Go Opposite to Hysteria September 22, 2015 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James... Look for hysteria to see if you shouldn t go the opposite way, but don t go the opposite way until you have fully examined
More informationFully Invested Bear. December 5, 2017 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James. If you put a gun to my head, I really wouldn t be short a Dow stock!
Fully Invested Bear December 5, 2017 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James If you put a gun to my head, I really wouldn t be short a Dow stock! The source of that firm declaration is an old friend of ours,
More informationMedia Headlines Will Lead You To Ruin
Media Headlines Will Lead You To Ruin January 16, 2017 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice The post-election euphoria has been quite amazing as the markets have surged more than 8% since then. Of
More informationThe Ambergris Factor
The Ambergris Factor August 8, 2017 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James In the American whaling industry, which got underway during the eighteenth century, whalers slaughtered the giant Sperm whale for sperm
More informationT. Boone Pickens. March 26, 2018 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James
T. Boone Pickens March 26, 2018 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James Many of you will recall that T. Boone Pickens and I know each other. In fact, three years ago he and I did a fireside chat on stage at Raymond
More informationThe Climb. March 21, 2017 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James
The Climb March 21, 2017 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James The Climb There's always gonna be another mountain I'm always gonna wanna make it move Always gonna be an uphill battle Sometimes I'm gonna have
More informationDesigning a Retirement Portfolio That s Just Right For You
Designing a Retirement Portfolio That s Just Right For You July 10, 2015 by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs Introduction No one knows your own personal financial situation better than you do. Every
More informationBrace Yourself For A Stock Market Drop! (02/02/2015)
Stock Market Barometer The Most Influential Financial Newsletter Read By Over 500 Hedge Fund Managers and Thousands of Elite Investors ~ February 2,2015 Brace Yourself For A Stock Market Drop! (02/02/2015)
More information7 Come 11. May 23, 2017 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James
7 Come 11 May 23, 2017 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James On a craps table, if a 7 or 11 rolls on the first throw of the dice, you are an automatic winner if you are betting the pass line. But, if you roll
More informationStill: it happened. And hopefully many readers did indeed ignore my investing advice.
Maybe I was bored, or maybe I wanted to write and there was nothing else to write about. In any case, in August, 2013, I wrote an investing advice article. What was that doing on this website? You know,
More informationIntelligent Investing, LLC Major Indices Daily Update 03/06/ 19
Elliot Wave Updates It is still technically possible for the S&P500 to be in minor-4, as it is becoming possible more complex, but since the RUT is IMHO already in a confirmed major-2/b down wave, see
More informationMaster Limited Partnerships
Master Limited Partnerships July 24, 2018 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James Readers of these missives know that we have been favorable on the midstream Master Limited Partnership (MLP) space for a number
More informationIntelligent Investing, LLC Major Indices Daily Update 02/26/ 19
Elliot Wave Updates Yesterday I found a move below last Friday s high (SPX2794.20) will be a first sign of lower prices as then the decline can t be a 4 th wave because 4 th and 1 st waves can t overlap
More informationTHE NASDAQ-100 SIGNALS
THE NASDAQ-100 SIGNALS The NASDAQ-100 timing signals use a mix of traditional and proprietary technical analysis to create computerized Buy (Up) and Sell (Down) signals for the future direction of the
More informationWhy Buy & Hold Is Dead
Why Buy & Hold Is Dead In this report, I will show you why I believe short-term trading can help you retire early, where the time honored buy and hold approach to investing in stocks has failed the general
More informationROBERT D. MCHUGH, JR., Ph.D. FINANCIAL MARKETS FORECAST & ANALYSIS A Publication of Main Line Investors, Inc.
ROBERT D. MCHUGH, JR., Ph.D. FINANCIAL MARKETS FORECAST & ANALYSIS A Publication of Main Line Investors, Inc. Visit Our Website at www.technicalindicatorindex.com Assessing the Quality of the Equity Rally
More informationJeremy Siegel on Dow 15,000 By Robert Huebscher December 18, 2012
Jeremy Siegel on Dow 15,000 By Robert Huebscher December 18, 2012 Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a Senior Investment
More informationMarket Observations - as of May 18, 2018
Market Observations - as of May 18, 2018 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. After about 4 weeks of a relatively flat horizontal market (in
More informationSafety First. You might see that slogan in a chemistry. Managing Safety, Liquidity, and Yield. Chapter 2. In This Chapter
Chapter 2 Managing Safety, Liquidity, and Yield In This Chapter Understanding risk Making sure you have enough cash Finding the discipline to succeed Polishing your crystal ball Safety First. You might
More informationDown the Rabbit Hole
Down the Rabbit Hole April 3, 2018 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James When I use a word, Humpty Dumpty said in a rather scornful tone, It means just what I chose it to mean neither more or less. The question
More informationThe Long-Term Investing Myth
The Long-Term Investing Myth January 3, 2017 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice During my morning routine of caffeine supported information injections, I ran across several articles that just contained
More informationForex Illusions - 6 Illusions You Need to See Through to Win
Forex Illusions - 6 Illusions You Need to See Through to Win See the Reality & Forex Trading Success can Be Yours! The myth of Forex trading is one which the public believes and they lose and its a whopping
More informationVanguard 2017 economic and market outlook: What s ahead for 2017?
Vanguard 2017 economic and market outlook: What s ahead for 2017? David Eldreth: When talking about the investment and market outlook for 2017, the question on many investors minds is around uncertainty
More information2015 Performance Report
2015 Performance Report Signals Site -> http://www.forexinvestinglive.com
More informationThe Worst Week In A Decade For US Stocks
The Worst Week In A Decade For US Stocks February 15, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. The Worst Week For US Stock Markets Since 2008 2. Confluence of Negative Factors Became Important
More informationHowever, while prices are likely to fall a bit further, we also continue to believe that we could be with a. Wednesday, November
Wednesday, November 28 2018 In our last update, we noted that Gold Stocks had resistance in the $19.75 to $19.80 area and that the odds were about 62% that GDX could be near a short term high of importance.
More informationS&P 500 Update: Week ending May 11th 2018
S&P 500 Update: Week ending May 11th 2018 1. Market Recap: The S&P 500 closed higher by 2.2% for week and broke out of some key resistance areas and a short term downtrend. There are 4 topics now setting
More informationMarket Observations as of Nov 17, 2017
Market Observations as of Nov 17, 2017 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. This week we saw a variety of market moves. The daily charts for
More informationTrading Sardines?! March 27, 2019 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James
Trading Sardines?! March 27, 2019 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James Last Friday I spoke to a number of money managers. One of the attendees was Linda Bradford Raschke, a professional trader, who used to
More informationTRADING PSYCHOLOGY AND INVESTOR BEHAVIOR
c01.qxd 6/16/03 4:23 PM Page 1 1 TRADING PSYCHOLOGY AND INVESTOR BEHAVIOR The market price of a stock at any exchange never represents the company s fair value. The stock instead is trading either above
More informationIntermediate Outlook July 13-20, 2009 Jim Curry, Publisher
Intermediate Outlook July 13-20, 2009 Jim Curry, Publisher S&P 500 CASH S&P 500 Cash Index - 07/17/09 Close - 940.38 SPX CASH: 5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 976; Low - 908 SEPT
More informationIs The Market Predicting A Recession?
Is The Market Predicting A Recession? October 25, 2018 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice There has been lot s of analysis lately on what message the recent gyrations in the market are sending.
More informationEconomic Outlook, January 2016 Jeffrey M. Lacker President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Economic Outlook, January 2016 Jeffrey M. Lacker President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Annual Meeting of the South Carolina Business & Industry Political Education Committee Columbia, South Carolina
More informationLet Diversification Do Its Job
Let Diversification Do Its Job By CARL RICHARDS Sunday, January 13, 2013 The New York Times Investors typically set up a diversified investment portfolio to reduce their risk. Just hold a good mix of different
More informationThe Fantasy Football Portfolio
The Fantasy Football Portfolio August 28, 2017 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James I have written before how fantasy football is one of my favorite hobbies. For an analytical, dataobsessed sports fan like
More informationMarket Insight: It s Nasty Out There Is This a Bear Market?
December 16, 2018 Market Insight: It s Nasty Out There Is This a Bear Market? Year-end commentaries are supposed to be filled with reflection, thankfulness, and inspiration for the New Year. In the grand
More informationYour Stock Market Survival Guide
Your Stock Market Survival Guide ROSENBERG FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. While this report can apply to all people, it is especially geared for people who: (1) are getting close to retirement; (2) are already
More information10-Steps To Curing The Trading Addiction
10-Steps To Curing The Trading Addiction January 31, 2017 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice THE ADDICTION Those who ve had any brush with addiction know an addict will go to any length to support
More informationMonthly Treasurers Tasks
As a club treasurer, you ll have certain tasks you ll be performing each month to keep your clubs financial records. In tonights presentation, we ll cover the basics of how you should perform these. Monthly
More informationThe Economy, Inflation, and Monetary Policy
The views expressed today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or the FOMC. Good afternoon, I m pleased to be here today. I am also delighted to be in Philadelphia. While
More informationGMO Real Return Forecasts
GMO Real Return Forecasts GMO Real Return Forecasts Jeremy Grantham s firm GMO makes a monthly 7-year Forecast which has been reasonably accurate over the years. It is primarily valuation based. For example,
More informationLife Insurance Buyer s Guide
Contents What type of insurance should I buy? How much insurance should I buy? How long should my term life insurance last? How do I compare life insurance quotes? How do I compare quotes from difference
More informationEVERY ASSET HAS A FAIR VALUE EVEN THE FORGOTTEN ONES
EVERY ASSET HAS A FAIR VALUE EVEN THE FORGOTTEN ONES It never ceases to amaze me all the misinformation that exists amongst the general public when it comes to investing. In the financial community at
More informationA Trader s Opportunity of a Generation
A Trader s Opportunity of a Generation How legacy fortunes will be made starting right now in the upcoming market recovery! By Norman Hallett, 28-year Veteran Trader and Founder, The Disciplined Trader
More information2015 Performance Report Forex End Of Day Signals Set & Forget Forex Signals
2015 Performance Report Forex End Of Day Signals Set & Forget Forex Signals Main Site -> http://www.forexinvestinglive.com
More informationMarket outlook: What to expect in 2018 and beyond
Market outlook: What to expect in 2018 and beyond Dave Eldreth: What does the future hold for the economy and the markets? Will inflation remain in check? And what should investors expectations for returns
More informationWhy Do You Invest Money? Investment Choices The Winning Edge Definition Impact on Portfolio Value Impact on Risk...
Table of Contents Why Do You Invest Money?... 3 Investment Choices... 5 The Winning Edge... 6 Definition... 6 Impact on Portfolio Value... 6 Impact on Risk... 10 Conclusions... 14 Key Components... 14
More informationTime in the market, not timing the market, is what builds wealth WHITEPAPER PRESENTED BY THE INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP
WHITEPAPER PRESENTED BY THE INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 01 Stocks go up in the long run 02 Year-to-year returns are unpredictable 03 Fallacy of forecasts 04 Stay focused and stay invested 05 Trying to time
More informationHow High Is Up? June 5, 2017 Gregory M. Drahuschak
How High Is Up? June 5, 2017 Gregory M. Drahuschak All-time highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite index highlighted May trading, but achieving these new heights required
More informationThings you should know about inflation
Things you should know about inflation February 23, 2015 Inflation is a general increase in prices. Equivalently, it is a fall in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of inflation is deflation a
More informationThe Fifty Most Common Reasons Why Most Futures Traders Lose Money
The Fifty Most Common Reasons Why Most Futures Traders Lose Money We surveyed more than a thousand experienced futures brokers and asked what, in their experience, caused most futures traders to lose money.
More informationANXIETY OPTIONAL: YOU CAN ONLY LOSE WHAT YOU CLING TO
ANXIETY OPTIONAL: YOU CAN ONLY LOSE WHAT YOU CLING TO Invest in seven ventures, yes, in eight; you do not know what disaster may come upon the land. - Ecclesiastes 11:2 Taking risk is the fundamental underpinning
More informationTactical Gold Allocation Within a Multi-Asset Portfolio
Tactical Gold Allocation Within a Multi-Asset Portfolio Charles Morris Head of Global Asset Management, HSBC Introduction Thank you, John, for that kind introduction. Ladies and gentlemen, my name is Charlie
More informationKey takeaways. What it may mean for investors FIRST A NALYSIS NEWS OR EVENTS T HAT MAY AFFECT Y OUR INVESTMENTS. Global Investment Strategy Team
FIRST A NALYSIS NEWS OR EVENTS T HAT MAY AFFECT Y OUR INVESTMENTS Global Investment Strategy Team February 5, 2018 Market Sell-off What Investors Need to Know Now Key takeaways» A swift climb in the 10-year
More informationHandling Market Volatility
Select Portfolio Management, Inc. Dave Jones, MBA Wealth Adviser 120 Vantis, Suite 430 Aliso Viejo, CA 92656 949-975-7900 dave.jones@selectportfolio.com www.selectportfolio.com Handling Market Volatility
More informationDEBT ELIMINATION SYSTEM. Stop Accumulating Debt Starting NOW!
DEBT ELIMINATION SYSTEM Insider Secrets from www.getdebthelp.co.za I m sure you re very excited to get stuck into this training and learn how you can apply this system to get out of debt in one of the
More informationSeven Retirement Planning Traps a Financial Professional Can Help You Avoid
Seven Retirement Planning Traps a Financial Professional Can Help You Avoid By Eric D Griessel, CPA Financial Advisor 86 percent of Americans believe the nation faces a retirement crisis (National Institute
More informationU.S. Debt Tops $20 Trillion - Stocks Soar To Record Highs
U.S. Debt Tops $20 Trillion - Stocks Soar To Record Highs September 20, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. National Debt Tops $20 Trillion, Equal to 107% of GDP 2. Debt Held by the Public
More informationCopyright 2015 Wilma G. Anderson, RFC. Retirement Freedom
Retirement Freedom Don t Leave Your Retirement Behind! Let s face it. The financial landscape for retirees has shifted dramatically over the last few decades. Gone are the days when a nice pension was
More informationThe Black Widow Returns
The Black Widow Returns Richard Bernstein Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer, Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC. Sub-Advisor to the Redwood Global Equity Strategy Class Global investing is changing
More informationCommon Investment Benchmarks
Common Investment Benchmarks Investors can select from a wide variety of ready made financial benchmarks for their investment portfolios. An appropriate benchmark should reflect your actual portfolio as
More informationNine Secrets To Stock Market Success! Valuable Tips From Market Pros
Nine Secrets To Stock Market Success! Valuable Tips From Market Pros Nine Secrets To Stock Market Success! Valuable Tips From Market Pros Have you ever wondered what makes some investors wildly successful,
More informationWell, something similar has been happening to much of the stock market.
Charles Sherry Director, Institutional Education Group Blue Ocean Global Wealth 9841 Washingtonian Blvd., #200 Gaithersburg, MD 20878 Tel: 720.308.4560 csherry@blueoceanglobalwealth.com 2017 June Financial
More informationCadence. clips. Warnings Can Take Time To Play Out F O C U SED ON W HAT MAT T ERS MO ST.
Warnings Can Take Time To Play Out... 1-7 ISSUE 4 VOLUME 7 OCTOBER 2018 Cadence F O C U SED ON W HAT MAT T ERS MO ST. clips Warnings Can Take Time To Play Out For an activity that is supposedly best done
More informationThe Hard Lessons of Stock Market History
The Hard Lessons of Stock Market History The Lessons of Stock Market History If you re like most people, you believe there s a great deal of truth in the old adage that history tends to repeats itself
More informationTranscript of Larry Summers NBER Macro Annual 2018
Transcript of Larry Summers NBER Macro Annual 2018 I salute the authors endeavor to use market price to examine the riskiness of the financial system and to evaluate the change in the subsidy represented
More informationANOTHER TOUGH WEEK COMMENTARY REASSURANCE KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET. October
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY October 29 2018 ANOTHER TOUGH WEEK John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT
More informationSeven Trading Mistakes to Say Goodbye To. By Mark Kelly KNISPO Solutions Inc.
Seven Trading Mistakes to Say Goodbye To By Mark Kelly KNISPO Solutions Inc. www.knispo.com Bob Proctor asks people this question - What do you want, what do you really want? In regards to stock trading,
More informationTRADING ADDICTS. Lesson 3: Timing and Technical Indicators. Timing the Market. Copyright 2010, Trading Addicts, LLC. All Rights Reserved
Lesson 3: Timing and Technical Indicators In this chapter, we will be focusing on the timing of the trade, from each individual angle. Timing plays a critical role in a Covered Call strategy, as it can
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary In last week s update I set a first target of SPX2428 for the S&P500, which was reached on Thursday. I expected from there a 10-15p correction, but instead the market decided to target
More informationIf you are over age 50, you get another $5,500 in catch-up contributions. Are you taking advantage of that additional amount?
Let s start this off with the obvious. I am not a certified financial planner. I am not a certified investment counselor. Anything I know about investing, I ve learned by making mistakes, not by taking
More informationOral History Program Series: Civil Service Interview no.: S11
An initiative of the National Academy of Public Administration, and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and the Bobst Center for Peace and Justice, Princeton University Oral History
More informationSycamore Market Analysis
Sycamore Market Analysis September 30, 2015 The third quarter came to an end with big gains for stocks. The rally did not quite reverse the effect of selling on Monday though with the S&P 500 still down
More informationT H E R I S E O F W W W. A I O N N E X T. C O M
T H E R I S E O F Trading Cryptocurrency W W W. A I O N N E X T. C O M What Is Cryptocurrency? The question, what is cryptocurrency seems to be asked a lot these days. There has been widespread interest
More informationPutting Money to Work - Investing
Chapter 12 Putting Money to Work - Investing J.H. Morley said: In investing money, the amount of interest you want should depend on whether you want to eat well or sleep well. Another man with initials
More informationContrarian Investing..Think Different
Contrarian Investing..Think Different.!!! Do you know, Why Successful people are different from Mediocre One? What separates Steve jobs, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Elon musk etc. from the crowd. The
More informationWon2One with Nick Foglietta
July 6 th 2015 Won2One with Nick Foglietta Tactical Equity Income Model Portfolio Record 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% S&P/TSX Composite RBC TEAM 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
More informationCelgene: A Primer on Growth Stock Value Investing (GARP): Part 2
Celgene: A Primer on Growth Stock Value Investing (GARP): Part 2 November 13, 2015 by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs Introduction This article is the second in a two-part series on applying the principles
More informationA better approach to Roth conversions
A better approach to Roth conversions Jason Method: One beneficial aspect of our current retirement system is that it allows you to choose when to pay taxes on at least some of the money you ve saved.
More informationSIMPLE SCAN FOR STOCKS: FINDING BUY AND SELL SIGNALS
: The Simple Scan is The Wizard s easiest tool for investing in stocks. If you re new to investing or only have a little experience, the Simple Scan is ideal for you. This tutorial will cover how to find
More informationCentral banks, the stock market, and gold
Central banks, the stock market, and gold When the pillars of the asset category that must be defended the stock market begin to crumble, the central banks always come in with policy guns a blazin. And
More informationPSYCHOLOGY OF FOREX TRADING EBOOK 05. GFtrade Inc
PSYCHOLOGY OF FOREX TRADING EBOOK 05 02 Psychology of Forex Trading Psychology is the study of all aspects of behavior and mental processes. It s basically how our brain works, how our memory is organized
More informationThe Buffett Way. Contents. Buffett and Real Estate? ) Less Than Net Asset Value: ) Margin of Safety: ) Get the Facts:...
Contents Buffett and Real Estate?... 3 1) Less Than Net Asset Value:... 4 3) Margin of Safety:... 5 3) Get the Facts:... 6 4) Use BOTH the Quantitative and the Qualitative:... 7 5) Put All of Your Eggs
More informationIntroduction to the Gann Analysis Techniques
Introduction to the Gann Analysis Techniques A Member of the Investment Data Services group of companies Bank House Chambers 44 Stockport Road Romiley Stockport SK6 3AG Telephone: 0161 285 4488 Fax: 0161
More informationShort Selling Stocks For Large And Fast Profits. By Jack Carter
Short Selling Stocks For Large And Fast Profits By Jack Carter 2017 Disclaimer: No financial advice is given or implied. Publisher is not registered investment advisor or stockbroker. Information provided
More informationThird Quarter, Financial Update. Herd Mentality: Is your Portfolio Under the Influence?
Third Quarter, 2015 Here are selected total return numbers year to date as of 6/30/2015: Major Bond Indexes Financial Update Dow Jones Industrials +0.03% S&P 500 Index +1.23% NASDAQ Composite +5.30% MSCI
More informationPLEASE SEE IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER ON LAST PAGE
Page 1 Page 3 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 The Market: Choppiness Anticipated New Ideas: LQD, MSFT, BA Updates: JCP, AAPL, RVBD, XLI, JPM Today s Indicator Reader Feedback & Questions: SDS, XEC, SWY The Market
More informationIt Ain't Over 'Til It's Over
It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over October 1, 2015 by Burt White of LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS We look to Yogi Berra s Yogi-isms to remind us that this bull market ain t over til it s over. Stock market corrections,
More informationTechnical Analysis. Used alone won't make you rich. Here is why
Technical Analysis. Used alone won't make you rich. Here is why Roman Sadowski The lesson to take away from this part is: Don t rely too much on your technical indicators Keep it simple and move beyond
More informationIntelligent Investing, LLC Major Indices Daily Update 02/28/ 19
Elliot Wave Updates Today the S&P500 was stuck in a less than 6p range. So there s really not much we can learn. All parameters remain the same a step 2: A move below SPX2764.55 (last Thursday s low) will
More information2017 WHY INVESTORS NEED TO KEEP FOCUSED ON LONG-TERM FINANCIAL GOALS
JUNE 2017 ELECTION 2017 WHY INVESTORS NEED TO KEEP FOCUSED ON LONG-TERM FINANCIAL GOALS Prime Minister Theresa May s announcement that she would call for a snap UK general election on 8 June 2017 surprised
More informationMorningstar. Managed PortfoliosSM. Mutual Fund Portfolios. ETF Portfolios. Select Stock Baskets
Morningstar Managed PortfoliosSM Mutual Fund Portfolios ETF Portfolios Select Stock Baskets A Team You Can Trust The Insight of Your Financial Advisor, The Strength of Morningstar At Morningstar Investment
More informationTHE 1987 CRASH: A NOT SO HAPPY ANNIVERSARY
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS Though charts comparing 1987 to 2017 look similar, gains leading up to 1987 were much stronger. We believe that the stock market is standing on a much
More informationCHAPTER 17 INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT. by Alistair Byrne, PhD, CFA
CHAPTER 17 INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT by Alistair Byrne, PhD, CFA LEARNING OUTCOMES After completing this chapter, you should be able to do the following: a Describe systematic risk and specific risk; b Describe
More informationLEARNING OUTCOMES $250 never learned how to play. KEY TERMS
SAVINGS What do other high school students know about saving? We asked high school students to describe something they really wanted and thought they had to buy, only to realize later that they wasted
More informationWeekly Economic Update
Weekly Economic Update In this week s recap: consumer sentiment declines, new ideas surface in U.S.-China trade talks, oil advances again, and the major indices post weekly gains. CONSUMER SENTIMENT HITS
More informationActive or passive? Tips for building a portfolio
Active or passive? Tips for building a portfolio Jim Nelson: Actively managed funds or passive index funds? It s a common question that many investors and their advisors confront during portfolio construction.
More informationStock Market Expected Returns Page 2. Stock Market Returns Page 3. Investor Returns Page 13. Advisor Returns Page 15
Index Stock Market Expected Returns Page 2 Stock Market Returns Page 3 Investor Returns Page 13 Advisor Returns Page 15 Elections and the Stock Market Page 17 Expected Returns June 2017 Investor Education
More informationROMC FUND OWNERS MEETING
ROMC FUND OWNERS MEETING May 5, 2014 at 11 am 1 Richmond Street West, Suite 800 Toronto, Ontario ROMC FUND PRINCIPLES Our objective is to increase purchasing power We use common sense: the market is there
More information