PRELIMINARY RESULTS February 2016

Transcription

1 25 February 2016

2 Nicandro Durante Chief Executive

3 A strong performance driven by market share growth Excellent underlying performance, despite significant FX headwinds Outstanding quality share performance, driven by the GDB s Commitment to shareholder returns

4 Ben Stevens Finance Director

5 Summary Financials Volume Current Revenue 13,104m Constant Cigarettes -6.2% 5.4% -0.5% 663bn Profit 4,992m -7.6% 4.0% Total Tobacco 689bn -0.8% Margin 38.1% -60bp -50bp GDBs 301bn 8.5% EPS 208.4p 0.1% 10.1% Total IBs 412bn 3.9% An excellent performance despite significant FX headwinds

6 Currency impact on Operating Profit H H FY 2015 FY 2016 estimate Transactional -4% -8% -6% -7% Translational -7% -16% -12% -1% Total -11% -24% -18% -8% FX headwinds remain a challenge for 2016

7 Operating margin 160 bps 40.3% -190 bps 38.7% 38.4% -30 bps 38.1% 2014 Reported Margin Underlying improvement 2015 Underlying Margin Transactional FX 2015 Like-forlike Margin TDR / Accounting changes 2015 Reported Margin

8 Currency impact on results Financials Current Constant Constant ex. Transactional FX Revenue -6% 5% 5% Profit -8% 4% 10% EPS 0% 10% 16% Very strong underlying performance masked by significant translational and transactional FX impacts

9 Regional performance* Cigarette Volume Revenue Profit AsPac Amr WE EEMEA Group AsPac Amr WE EEMEA Group AsPac Amr WE EEMEA Group 11.7% 10.9% 7.5% 3.5% 5.4% 5.1% 4.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.1% 0.0% 1.3% -0.5% -0.1% -5.2% Translation FX impact -2.6% -20.7% -8.1% -16.6% -11.6% -5.1% -20.0% -8.7% -13.8% -11.6% As reported -2.6% -9.0% -4.6% -9.1% -6.2% -5.2% -9.1% -3.6% -12.5% -7.6% *At constant rates of exchange

10 Asia Pacific Regional Performance Financials Volume Constant Current Revenue 3,874m Cigarettes 0.0% -2.6% 0.1% 198bn Profit 1,546m -0.1% -5.2% GDBs 84bn 5.6%

11 Americas Regional Performance Financials Volume Constant Current Revenue 3,340m 11.7% -9.0% Cigarettes 124bn -5.2% Profit 1,426m 10.9% -9.1% GDBs 38bn 7.2%

12 Western Europe Regional Performance Financials Volume Constant Current Revenue 3,476m 3.5% -4.6% Cigarettes 112bn 0.5% Profit 1,249m 5.1% -3.6% GDBs 69bn 4.3%

13 EEMEA Regional Performance Financials Volume Constant Current Revenue 4,030m 7.5% -9.1% Cigarettes 229bn 1.1% Profit 1,399m 1.3% -12.5% GDBs 110bn 14.4%

14 Drivers of adjusted EPS growth +3.2p +1.2p +0.6p 229.1p -20.7p +9.4p +8.2p -1.6p 208.1p 208.4p EPS 2014 Profit Performance Net Finance Costs Associates Taxation Non-controlling interest Share Buy-Back EPS 2015 constant FX Translation Exchange EPS 2015 current FX

15 Cash flow 337m 263m 483m 148m 522m 4,992m 1,273m 963m 235m 480m 593m 3,481m Adj operating profit Non cash items Working Capital chg Net Capex Pension fds - s'fall funding Net interest Tax FII GLO refund Dividends to NCI Restructuring Div from associates Free cash flow

16 Financing/Shareholder returns Net Debt increased by 4.6bn to 14.8bn Credit rating unchanged at A3 / A- stable Full year dividend growth of 4%

17 Nicandro Durante Chief Executive

18 Year in Review Strong organic growth

19 Global Drive Brands Volume: 59 billion, +6.0% Share up 30bps Good share growth in Indonesia, Brazil and S Korea Lower volumes in S Korea and Malaysia

20 Global Drive Brands Volume: 59 billion, +6.0% Share up 30bps Good share growth in Indonesia, Brazil and S Korea Lower volumes in S Korea and Malaysia Volume: 66 billion, +3.3% Share flat Impacted by market declines in Russia, Ukraine and Romania Robust growth in Japan, Iran and Turkey Share gains in Japan and Turkey

21 Global Drive Brands Volume: 59 billion, +6.0% Share up 30bps Good share growth in Indonesia, Brazil and S Korea Lower volumes in S Korea and Malaysia Volume: 66 billion, +3.3% Share flat Impacted by market declines in Russia, Ukraine and Romania Robust growth in Japan, Iran and Turkey Share gains in Japan and Turkey Volume: 32 billion, +3.6% Share up 10bps Share growth momentum in France, Mexico and Argentina Black series driving growth

22 Global Drive Brands Volume: 59 billion, +6.0% Share up 30bps Good share growth in Indonesia, Brazil and S Korea Lower volumes in S Korea and Malaysia Volume: 66 billion, +3.3% Share flat Impacted by market declines in Russia, Ukraine and Romania Robust growth in Japan, Iran and Turkey Share gains in Japan and Turkey Volume: 32 billion, +3.6% Share up 10bps Share growth momentum in France, Mexico and Argentina Black series driving growth Volume: 92 billion, +0.4% Share up 10bps Strong performance across the Regions Fastest growing VFM brand in Germany

23 Global Drive Brands Volume: 59 billion, +6.0% Share up 30bps Good share growth in Indonesia, Brazil and S Korea Lower volumes in S Korea and Volume: Malaysia 52 billion, up 46.5% Volume: 32 billion, +3.6% Share up 10bps Share growth momentum in France, Mexico and Argentina Black series driving growth Share up 70bps Volume: 66 billion, +3.3% Share flat Impacted by market declines in Russia, Ukraine and Romania Robust growth in Japan, Iran and Turkey Share gains in Japan and Turkey Strong performance in EEMEA, Western Europe and Australia Great momentum of slimmer innovations in Eastern Europe Volume: 92 billion, +0.4% Share up 10bps Strong performance across the Regions Fastest growing VFM brand in Germany

24 Year in Review Strong organic growth Margin expansion opportunity

25 Year in Review Strong organic growth Margin expansion opportunity Continued investment in the future: Innovations and new growth markets

26 Year in Review Strong organic growth Margin expansion opportunity Continued investment in the future: Innovations and new growth markets M&A

27 Year in Review Strong organic growth Margin expansion opportunity Continued investment in the future: Innovations and new growth markets M&A Good progress on NGPs

28 2015 AN OUTSTANDING YEAR Volume Share Financials VOLUME CORPORATE SHARE REVENUE PROFIT EPS -0.5% +40bps VS INDUSTRY -2.3% GDB VOLUME GDB SHARE +5% +10% +16% +8.5% +120bps constant currency constant currency ex transactional fx constant currency ex transactional fx Confident of another good year of constant currency earnings growth

29 25 February 2016

30 SUPPLEMENTARY SLIDES 25 February 2016

31 Cigarette volumes by region FY 2015 Region Billions % change Asia Pacific % Americas % Western Europe % Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa % Group %

32 Cigarette volumes by region H Region Billions % change Asia Pacific % Americas % Western Europe % Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa % Group %

33 Cigarette volumes by region Q Region Billions % change Asia Pacific % Americas % Western Europe % Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa % Group %

34 Revenue by region FY 2015 Region m % change Asia Pacific 3,773 3, % Americas 2,720 2, % Western Europe 3,203 3, % Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa 3,408 3, % Group 13,104 13, % All numbers as reported

35 Revenue by region H Region m % change Asia Pacific 1,880 1, % Americas 1,336 1, % Western Europe 1,740 1, % Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa 1,750 1, % Group 6,706 7, % All numbers as reported

36 Adjusted profit from operations FY 2015 Region m % change Asia Pacific 1,469 1, % Americas 1,169 1, % Western Europe 1,146 1, % Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa 1,208 1, % Group 4,992 5, % All numbers as reported

37 Adjusted profit from operations H Region m % change Asia Pacific % Americas % Western Europe % Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa % Group 2,485 2, % All numbers as reported

38 Top 40 market share movements (1) Market SOM FY15 (%) Movement (ppt) Market SOM FY15 (%) Movement (ppt) Argentina France Australia GCC 31.1 (1.4) Bangladesh Germany Belgium 31.0 (0.9) Indonesia Brazil 78.1 (0.3) Italy 20.0 (0.5) Canada 49.1 (1.0) Japan Chile 94.7 (0.1) Kazakhstan Colombia Malaysia Czech 20.1 (0.5) Mexico Denmark 73.6 (1.2) Netherlands Based on retail audit

39 Top 40 market share movements (2) Market SOM FY15 (%) Movement (ppt) Market SOM FY15 (%) Movement (ppt) New Zealand Spain 10.7 (0.4) Pakistan Switzerland 38.5 (1.5) Philippines Taiwan Poland 27.0 (0.1) Turkey Romania UK Russia Ukraine South Africa 80.5 (2.5) Vietnam South Korea Based on retail audit

40 Foreign currencies Average Closing Australian dollar Brazilian real Canadian dollar Euro Indian rupee Japanese yen Russian rouble South African rand US dollar