25% by 2025? Lithium and the Electric Vehicle Revolution
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1 25% by 2025? Lithium and the Electric Vehicle Revolution AABC 2018 San Diego, USA Monday 4 June 2018 Simon Moores, Managing Director Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
2 What is Benchmark? Price Assessments Lithium Cobalt Graphite Anode Forecasts Lithium Cobalt Nickel Consultancy Entire Supply Chain Raw Material > Cathode > Cell
3 Benchmark s global recognition US Senate LME Keynote Panel Uni of Oxford Guest Lectures Worldwide Media
4 The lithium industry s reference price Brent Crude Platts / Bloomberg Benchmark Minerals Lithium Price Assessments Chart taken from: Benchmark s Lithium Price Assessment Service Subscribe today, contact: Alex ahewitt@benchmarkminerals.com Source: Benchmark Minerals Lithium Price Assessments. info@benchmarkminerals.com
5 Lithium today
6 Lithium Prices What Benchmark advised in at AABC Europe in January
7 1. Prices Chinese and ex-china prices are converging
8 Why is price convergence happening? South America Brine Chile Argentina
9 Why is price convergence happening? More conversion capacity is softening the Chinese lithium market Australia feedstock Fed by Talison, Galaxy Resources, Neometals / MinRes To come: Pilbara Minerals, Altura, Kidman New Conversion Capacity China to reach 140,000 tonnes LCE this year Forecasts of conversion in excess of >200,000 LCE are wrong How much can be used by a cathode producer? Quality control a major issue
10 How is lithium being locked up? How much free market lithium is really available now and in the future? Today: Active Producing Industry Cathode & Battery ~50% of existing supply 100% of new supply Grease ~10% of existing supply Ceramics & Glass ~17% of existing supply Future: Take or Pays are beginning 3,500 to 5,000 tpa lithium hydroxide a year 5 Year Contract 3-year Fixed price take or pay
11 Lithium is now a top 2 resource along with oil 9 October April 2018
12 Rise of lithium ion battery megafactories continues Benchmark Minerals slide from January 2015
13 GWh The Megafactories are here 2018 Reality 25 Active, 36 Total Pipeline Megafactories in pipeline for 2023: 470 GWh of capacity Asia (excl. China) China Europe US LFP NCM KOREA KOREA Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Battery Megafactory Tracker Subscription Service
14 Lithium Forecast to 2025
15 Lithium Forecast out to 2025 Tonnes High risk years: 2019 & k tpa stockpiled 30k tpa stockpiled
16 Lithium Forecast out to 2025 Tonnes Lithium Supply All 900k tpa will not happen 753k LCE Lithium Supply ~700k tpa LCE
17 Building the lithium supply chain Lithium suppliers need to stay well ahead of the curve 7 Years to fund and build a lithium mine Brine Spodumene Mine Chemical Plant Chemical Plant + Battery Grade Plant Cathode plant capacity Nickel + cobalt availability months to build a battery plant Battery Cell capacity Battery Pack Capacity 7 Years to build a car from scratch Auto Producer EV capability Consumer Demand Years
18 Where will supply and demand intersect? Tonnes Benchmark Minerals lithium demand figure is 753k tpa by 2025 but 607k tpa = Battery Demand 759 GWh = 81% EVs, 9% Stationary 720k tpa 650k tpa
19 How many vehicles can 607,000 tonnes of lithium make?
20 EV penetration rate by ,000 tonnes of lithium = Cells = 759GWh EVs = 645GWh Based on 100m vehicles sold in 2025 Other forms of transport? Just mid-sized cars 11.7m Pure EVs (Model 3 sized) 55kWh ~12% Penetration Rate Mid-sized cars and buses 7m Pure EVs 500, kWh pack ~9% Penetration rate
21 Lithium Forecasts out to 2040 Leading analysis from the most connected supplier Our innovative Forecast Reports provide a clear picture of the current supply landscape and a flexible demand model to enable you to see the impact of changing battery technologies and electric vehicle adoption rates The Quarterly Report Includes: Full Supply and Demand Balances, inclusive of Stock Changes Cost Curves for 2018, 2025, 2030 and 2035 Incentive Price Forecasts for Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide out to 2040 Supply Chain Updates on Mega Factories and Conversion Capacity Access to our Global Analyst Team BENCHMARK MINERAL INTELLIGENCE Page 21
22 Benchmark Minerals Week October 2018, Newport Beach, CA, USA
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