Telford Homes plc. Record results with PBT >30% above LY. Margins up 3% thanks to mix & build-cost savings. Not dependent on Help-to-Buy

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1 Telford Homes plc Record results with PBT >30% above LY Need a reality-check on the daily hype surrounding the Capital s housing market? Then look no further than Telford Homes, a specialist developer of affordable studio, 1-3 bed apartments and Build-to-Rent (BTR) schemes in inner London. Today the firm released another positive trading update, saying that results for the y/e March 2018, would not only be at record levels, but also adjusted PBT would come in >30% above LY ( 34.1m) and slightly ahead of expectations. Accordingly we have nudged up our FY18 PBT forecast from 44.0m to 44.6m on LFL revenues 8% higher to 315m (vs 292m LY). Margins up 3% thanks to mix & build-cost savings The profit improvement has been driven by 3% higher margins thanks to sales mix and build cost savings, alongside volume growth. The latter mirroring the ongoing shortage of reasonably priced accommodation (typically < 600k each), coupled with robust demand from overseas/uk Buy To Let (BTL) investors, owner-occupiers & housing associations. In our opinion, this secular imbalance is unlikely to subside anytime soon. Indeed in January >100 reservations were secured in only 3 weeks at the firm s New Garden Quarter development in Stratford (Phase 2 involving 183 units see page 5). Exceeding targets with a quarter of buyers coming from the UK (notwithstanding the impact of tax changes on BLT) and another 50% from China. Final completions are anticipated by mid 19. Not dependent on Help-to-Buy Elsewhere, all the homes at Bermondsey Works (SE16) have now gone, with just a handful of higher priced units at Manhattan Plaza (E14) remaining unsold. Indicating to us (& independently correlated by Berkeley Homes) that the more affordable end of the Capital s residential property market is still in decent shape, regardless of constant media scaremongering. To their credit, the Board anticipated this shift a while back, buying land early and so being able to launch Bow Garden Square (E3, 109 units) in late March - primarily focused on owner-occupiers (OO) with prices starting at 390k. Initial interest has been encouraging, albeit these type of customer typically take longer to commit, especially if reliant on a Government Help to Buy mortgage. Nonetheless, overall demand is expected to pick up as construction winds-down later this year. London needs 65k new houses pa vs 30k today What s more from a macro perspective, London s demographics are supportive of the long term investment case. Between Mar 97-Mar 16, the population rose by 1.7m (+24%) to 8.7m (see below), and is predicted to climb to 10.1m by EPIC Price 18 th April 2018 Company Data AIM: TEF 425p 52 week Hi/Lo 444p/365p Market cap 320m Valuation Avg. daily volume 500p 400p 300p 200p 100p Share Price, p Source: Web Financial Description 500p/share 120k 0p Founded in 2000, Telford Homes specialises in planning, designing and building developments on brownfield sites in inner London where demand for new homes far exceeds supply. Here it constructs high quality apartments and flats, sprinkled with a few houses and the odd commercial property (eg school), reflecting the mixeduse nature of its sites. Development pipeline equivalent to >4,000 units, of which ~75% have already been granted planning consent. Telford employs circa 280 staff with a further 700 subcontractors to be called upon as required. In 2017 it also enjoyed a 100% customer recommendation rate, having won several leading industry awards. Next News: Prelims Wednesday 30 th May 2018 Paul Hill (Analyst) paul.hill@equitydevelopment.co.uk Please refer to the important disclosures shown on the back page and note that this information is Non-independent and categorised as Marketing Material

2 Telford Homes plc 18 th April 2018 London population set to rise further irrespective of BREXIT Source: London Mayor and Greater London Authority the majority sourced from inner City boroughs In response the Mayor, Sadiq Khan, has ripped up the planning rulebook, and is now aiming for 649k new homes (excluding conversions and change of use) by 2027 equivalent to >2x the current run-rate of 30k pa (see below), of which >60% has been ear-marked for Telford s sweet-spot of inner City boroughs. 10s of thousands more homes required each year Source: London Mayor and Greater London Authority Clearly this is going to be a challenge, and will undoubtedly require freeing up space on thousands of sites - probably also involving the construction of modern purpose-built 2

3 18 th April 2018 Telford Homes plc apartment blocks on spare brownfield land (eg Network Rail, Tfl, etc). Again right in Telford s wheelhouse, where it has an exemplary reputation, as evidenced by its 100% customer recommendation rate and numerous industry awards. BTR set to deliver >300k units by 2022 But that s not all. Having spoken recently to other builders, we are now even more optimistic on BTR. In 2017 this fledgling asset class attracted 2.4bn (+21%) of fresh capital, but is set to mushroom another 18-19% pa on average over the next 6 years on the back of strong pent-up demand, a shift towards rented accommodation (1-3 bed appts) from home ownership (see below), political support and yield hungry professional investors. Ongoing shift towards the private rented sector Source: London Mayor and Greater London Authority These shared schemes are already popular with young adults/couples, who want flexibility, uptodate appliances, super-fast broadband and communal living spaces (eg entrances and lounges). Consistent with experiences in other parts of the world (eg US, Germany and France). Driven by pent-up demand and yield hungry investors In return institutional investors like Brookfield, L&G and Greystar enjoy sustainable income streams (yields ~5%) that can be used to perhaps offset future pension liabilities. The British Property Federation (BPF) calculates that there are 118k (+30% YoY) such homes either complete, under construction or planned - of which >half are in London. However this could be just the tip. To achieve the nation s goal of delivering 1.5m new homes by 2022, the Government has formally acknowledged that all housing tenures, including BTR, must be firing on all cylinders. Here the BPF reckon BTR could account for ~20% (or 300k+) of the target, and much more in the Capital where logistical constraints are greatest. 3

4 Telford Homes plc 18 th April 2018 Savills adding that BTR could revolutionise the UK rental market - potentially in our view heralding a major re-rating too in TEF s stock. Actively exploring more BTR strategic partnerships As such, management are stepping up their efforts in this buoyant sector, not least exploring new partnerships with a small number of tier 1 institutions. Galliford Try have announced something similar with Sigma Capital Group, who are seeking to invest 900m in a portfolio of rental homes, predominantly centred in the West and South West of England. This would be on top of Telford s existing BTR presence, where in June 17, it teamed up with Greystar, to develop (subject to planning permission) 894 units at the prestigious 9 Elms site in Battersea. Here consent is due by late Summer (ie post council elections) with construction slated for the Autumn. A few run of the mill planning delays Moreover investors should remember that 9 Elms, is in addition to TEF s already considerable pipeline (~75% consented) of >4,000 units (3,972 LY and 4,200 in Sept 17) sporting ASPs of 539k (vs 527k) of which >2,900 are under construction. In total providing >100% of FY19 gross profit from the pipeline, and >65% from contracted sales. Sure there have been a couple of annoying delays of late in obtaining planning consent. Yet to us, these are simply par for the course, and will eventually be ironed out given the far more pressing concern of resolving the country s housing crisis. Elsewhere, we think the Board s prudent capital management is a major strength - regardless if that necessitates occasionally walking away from land deals where the maths simply doesn t work. In fact, this discipline together with strong H2 cash inflows, meant net debt closed Mar 18 at an estimated 110m (vs ED s Est of 180m). We reiterate our FY19 numbers and beyond Therefore, factoring all this in, our forecasts for FY19 and beyond remain broadly unchanged. Positive newsflow on site acquisitions is envisaged in the coming months, and underpinned by the renegotiation of a new 5 year 210m credit facility in December at lower interest rates, to replace the current 3 year 180m loan which was to expire in Mar 19. Finally on 20 Dec 17, contracts were signed on a 3.16 acre plot (see below) in Waltham Forest Borough with U+I and Parkdale Investments for 33.8m. Whilst this can be marketed to individuals, it has instead been chosen as the company s next BTR scheme. Here the site has planning for 257 open market homes, 80 affordable and 18,830 square feet of flexible commercial space. It is also serviced by good transport links, being within 150 metres of Blackhorse Road station on the Victoria line and London Overground - with construction scheduled to begin by Q4 18 and all completions 3 years later. 4

5 18 th April 2018 Telford Homes plc 3.16 acre Equipment Works site in Waltham Forest Borough Source: Company CEO Jon Di-Stefano, commenting Telford Homes continues to perform well and I expect to once again report record revenue and profit for the year to 31 March As we increase the scale of the business, our growth is underpinned by the lack of supply of new homes in London and demand for our product at more affordable price points remains strong. Build to rent is the most exciting part of our business in the near term and I believe our increased focus on this sector will drive the next phase of our growth and bring even greater success. Top flight New Garden Quarter, Stratford (2 nd phase 183 units) Source: Company 5

6 Telford Homes plc 18 th April 2018 Investor sentiment should improve Likewise, given the Capital s acute supply-demand imbalance, we think today s RNS should help quell fears over the health at the more affordable end of the London property market. Along with hopefully improving investor sentiment, and perhaps triggering a re-rating in TEF s stock to bring it closer towards our 500p/share valuation. Indeed, we believe Telford should at least be valued in line with other UK developers, who presently sit on price:net tangible asset and PE multiples of 1.7x and 9.7x respectively (see below). Current year Price: net tangible assets (NTA) vs peers Sector average 1.7 Berkeley 1.9 Bellway 1.6 McCarthy & Stone 1.0 Telford Homes 1.2 Taylor Wimpey 2.0 Crest Nicholson Redrow Bovis Barratt Devs Persimmon 2.5 Springfield Props 1.6 Henry Boot 1.4 Gleeson Countryside Source: Equity Development CY PERs vs peers Sector average Berkeley Bellway McCarthy & Stone Telford Homes Taylor Wimpey Crest Nicholson Redrow Bovis Barratt Devs Persimmon Springfield Props Henry Boot Gleeson Countryside Source: Equity Development 6

7 18 th April 2018 Telford Homes plc CY EV/EBIT vs peers Sector average Berkeley Bellway McCarthy & Stone Telford Homes Taylor Wimpey Crest Nicholson Redrow Bovis Barratt Devs Persimmon Springfield Props Henry Boot Gleeson Countryside Source: Equity Development CY dividend yield vs peers Sector average Berkeley Bellway McCarthy & Stone Telford Homes Taylor Wimpey Crest Nicholson Redrow Bovis Barratt Devs Persimmon Springfield Props Henry Boot Gleeson Countryside 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.5% 4.0% 4.9% 3.8% 5.8% 6.2% 7.3% 7.9% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% Source: Equity Development 7

8 Telford Homes plc 18 th April 2018 Summary financial projections Telford Homes - (incl JVs - non GAAP) 2015 Act 2016 Est 2017 Act 2018 Est 2019 Est 2020 Est 2021 Est 2022 Est 2023 Est (March yearend) 'ms 'ms 'ms 'ms 'ms 'ms 'ms 'ms 'ms Turnover (incl share of JVs) Open market (UK/Overseas investors, FTBs) Affordable (Housing Associations) Build to rent (Institutions) Other Total Group revenue growth % YoY 23.2% 41.6% 18.9% 7.9% 39.7% 8.7% 10.5% 11.1% 11.7% Open market (UK/Overseas investors, FTBs) 39.5% -21.6% 33.6% 14.6% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Affordable (Housing Associations) -42.1% 162.3% -40.1% 100.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% Build to rent (Institutions) 284.4% -4.6% 91.8% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% Gross profit % margin 31.0% 25.7% 21.7% 25.4% 21.7% 20.8% 19.9% 19.1% 18.4% Adjusted % (B4 capitalised interest) 32.4% 26.5% 22.3% 26.5% 23.5% 22.4% 21.3% 20.4% 19.6% Admin Selling Adjusted EBIT % margin 16.1% 14.1% 12.8% 15.4% 12.7% 12.2% 11.8% 11.5% 11.3% Adjusted % (B4 capitalised interest) 17.5% 15.0% 13.4% 16.5% 14.5% 13.8% 13.2% 12.8% 12.5% Net interest Adjusted profit before Tax Effective tax rate -21.7% -20.1% -19.5% -19.0% -19.0% -18.0% -17.0% -17.0% -17.0% Adjusted EPS (pence) EPS growth rate 25.7% 18.3% -6.2% 29.9% 15.7% 6.2% 8.6% 8.4% 10.4% Net tangible assets per share (p) Capitalised interest (est) within COGS Gearing (net debt/net assets) 44% 9% 8% 48% 74% 65% 59% 54% 50% Dividend (p) Valuation benchmarks P/E ratio Price/Book Price/Tangible book Return on equity 16.6% 15.7% 13.6% 15.8% 16.2% 15.4% 15.1% 14.7% 14.6% Dividend yield 2.6% 3.3% 3.7% 4.0% 4.5% 4.7% 5.2% 5.6% 6.2% Net cash/(debt) Sharecount (Ks) 59,247 65,498 74,717 75,516 75,616 75,716 75,816 75,916 76,016 Shareprice 425 Source: Equity Development. Key risks Impact of a substantial jump in UK interest rates and/or a recession on the London housing market, say in terms of both prices and transaction volumes. This seems unlikely though, given that even the most pessimistic economic forecasts are for >1% GDP growth through to Similarly, November s 0.25% rate rise by the BoE has already been factored into our modelling. Protracted delays in obtaining planning consent, which traditionally has plagued the whole sector. Availability of skilled labour and associated resources at desired cost levels. Foreign exchange fluctuations could impact demand from international buyers, from say Singapore, Hong Kong and China. Being relatively small, Telford Homes could get squeezed by larger rivals, partners and customers, particularly with regards to construction contract margins. 8

9 18 th April 2018 Telford Homes plc Future access to funding at commercial rates, perhaps in the unlikely event of another banking crisis. Generic risks of retention/recruitment of key staff, etc. Acquiring land at affordable rates, with Telford targeting circa 800 per sq foot. Withdrawal of government support for house-building (eg H2B, FTBs, stamp duty, etc). Brexit, and other possible legislative changes, say concerning building regulations, affordable housing, ground rents, etc Less demand from institutional money, say if bond/gilt yields were to rise materially. 9

10 Head of Corporate Gilbert Ellacombe Direct: Tel: Investor Access Hannah Crowe Ben Ferguson Direct: Direct: Tel: Tel: Equity Development Limited is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority Equity Development Limited ('ED') is retained to act as financial adviser for various clients, some or all of whom may now or in the future have an interest in the contents of this document and/or in the Company. In the preparation of this report ED has taken professional efforts to ensure that the facts stated herein are clear, fair and not misleading, but make no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. The research in this document has been produced in accordance with COBS 12.3 as Non-Independent Research and is a marketing communication. This document is not directed at, may not be suitable for and should not be relied on by anyone who is not an investment professional including retail clients. It does not constitute a personal investment recommendation and recipients must satisfy themselves that any dealing is appropriate in the light of their own understanding, appraisal of risk and reward, objectives, experience, and financial and operational resources. Research on its client companies produced and distributed by ED is normally commissioned and paid for by those companies themselves ('issuer financed research') and as such is deemed to be 'non-independent research' but is 'objective' in that the authors are stating their own opinions. This report has not been produced under legal requirements designed for independent research. ED may in the future provide, or may have in the past provided, investment banking services to its client companies. For ED's employees and consultants there are rules to prevent dealing in the shares of client companies whilst notes are being prepared, or immediately after the note s release. Publication is achieved by a new note being freely available from the ED website. ED's engagement with corporate clients is governed by the laws of England & Wales. In the UK, companies quoted on AIM are subject to lighter due diligence than shares quoted on the main market and are therefore more likely to carry a higher degree of risk than main market companies. This report is being provided to relevant persons by ED to provide background information about Lombard Risk Management. This document does not constitute, nor form part of, and should not be construed as, any offer for sale or purchase of (or solicitation of, or invitation to make any offer to buy or sell) any Securities (which may rise and fall in value). Nor shall it, or any part of it, form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Self-certification by investors can be completed free of charge at More information is available on our website Equity Development, 15 Eldon Street, London, EC2M 7LD. Contact: info@equitydevelopment.co.uk