NEW I-O TABLE AND SAMs FOR POLAND

Transcription

1 Łucja Tomasewic University of Lod Institute of Econometrics and Statistics 41 Rewolucji 195 r, Łódź Poland, tel. (4842) uni.lod.pl Draft NEW I-O TABLE AND SAMs FOR POLAND XIII International Conference on Input-Output Techniques University of Macerata, Italy, August 21-25, 2 Introduction The national economy is a complicated and complex economic system. Different fields of activity carried by economic units are interlinked to a great extent and it is difficult to understand certain phenomena without attempts to describe them by means of statistical, mathematical or econometric tools taking into consideration, of course, the theory of economy. These tools cannot be used effectively without a good system of statistical accounting, which appears to be a synthetic quantitative reflection of economic processes occurring in the national economy. Economic links between different countries, necessity of assessing their economic situation and comparative needs made it necessary to design standardied systems of collecting, classifying and presenting statistical data at the level of entire national economy. The Material Product of System MPS for short was commonly used in the former socialist countries, while the remaining countries used mainly the system of social accounting otherwise known as the System of National Accounts SNA. Differences between both systems were quite significant. They were reflected primarily in a different approach to defining production activity yielding value added as well as in terminology, definitions of economic categories and their classifications (see, for instance, Tomasewic (1994)). MPS included the concept of material activity as the activity, which produces value added. The so-called non-material services belonged to the sphere of distribution and not production, and the vast majority of them were provided by the government free (education, health services or even services of the financial sector). The necessity of adopting SNA can be explained by a simple fact that MPS is useless in the present situation of a market economy, in which most services belong to the market services, that is, services, whose price covers costs and yields profit. The system has been introduced to the Polish statistical practice changing in this way the methods of material balances followed in Poland for over thirty years. 1

2 The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 1995 presented in this paper is a synthetic approach to links between accounts. A part of this matrix is the input-output table for SAM is a statistical model of the national economy, which reflects the main quantitative relations (transactions) occurring in the field of production, consumption and accumulation between economic units (institutions) and production sectors, and it describes flows of incomes between them (see, for instance, a special edition of Economic System Research vol. 3, 1993). The double entry principle is fulfilled automatically in this matrix each element of the matrix is simultaneously an income on a given account (line) and an expenditure on another one (column). The accounts are usually divided into: production accounts, consumption accounts (current accounts) and accumulation accounts (capital accounts). The last mentioned accounts include all transactions changing the level of assets (of physical and financial) of institutional sectors. For comparison of the Social Accounting Matrix and the input-output table a very simplified scheme of the SAM is presented, with no peculiar analytical goal hiding behind this scheme. It is rather an illustration of possibilities of describing the System of National Accounts in the matrix form for the Polish economy. It can be seen from the scheme that apart from production accounts showing creation (columns) and allocation of products (lines) between intermediate and final uses (input-output table) there are additional accounts describing generation and distribution of incomes in the national economy. Scheme 1. Simplified scheme of SAM Product accounts Production accounts (according to NACE) Product accounts Value added accounts Accounts of institutional sectors Current accounts (consumption) Capital accounts (accumulation) Total Value added accounts Current accounts (consumption) Capital accounts (accumulation) Total 2

3 The SAM opens huge possibilities before the national economy analysts. Application of the multiplier analysis allows to get an answer to the question how a given economic category for instance, growth of final demand for products of a given economic sector or transfers of capital will respond to an impulse sent to the economy in the form of, for instance, increase of direct taxes by unity and, thus, revenues on the government s institutional account. This simple example shows that SAM is a valuable analytical tool, and availability of matrices for successive years creates an opportunity of monitoring the country s economic condition and dynamics of economic growth. The input-output table for 1995 (according to SNA) allowed to build aggregated national accounts in the form of the social accounting matrix for that year in a way making allowances for generation of incomes (value added) also in production sectors (according to NACE). Integration of national accounts of institutional sectors in the form of SAM has been possible since Statistical data to be found in national accounts provide information about generation of incomes and value added (GDP) in institutional sectors without their division into activity sectors. 1 It was only the input-output table which allowed to include activity sectors, i.e. present income generation processes in these sectors. Unfortunately, no data are available about the cross classification, i.e. about incomes in activity sectors with an additional division into institutional sectors. Expenditures and incomes on particular production and current accounts are shown below by way of illustration. Entries are organied in such way as it is done in publications of the Polish Central Statistical Office, that is, one of expenditure items is treated as a balancing item being simultaneously a revenue (income) on the subsequent account. Entries on accounts showing generation of revenues and primary and secondary distribution, as well as allocation of disposable incomes are presented schematically below. 1. Production accounts (according to NACE) 1. Product accounts Incomes from sales: Expenditures: Total value Material costs Balancing value: value added - Costs resulting from involvement of primary production factors (GDP) 2. Income generation account value added account Incomes: Expenditures: Value added Costs connected with employment (total production material costs) Taxes from producers minus subsidies for producers 1 It can be found primarily in publications of the Central Statistical Office in the series National accounts according to institutional sectors, as well as in statistical yearbooks. 3

4 Balancing value: gross operating surplus Taxes from products minus subsidies for products 4

5 2. Current accounts 3. Primary distribution of income account (according to NACE and institutional sectors) Incomes: Expenditures Gross operating surplus Ownership incomes Costs connected with employment Taxes from producers minus subsidies for Producers Taxes from products minus subsidies for products Ownership incomes Balancing value: gross primary incomes 4 Secondary distribution of income account (according to institutional sectors) Incomes: Expenditures: Gross primary incomes Income and property tax Income and property tax Social insurance benefits and other social transfers Social insurance benefits and other social Various current transfers transfers Various current transfers Remaining current transfers Remaining current transfers Balancing value: gross disposable incomes 2. SAM' 95 Before passing to the presentation of SAM 95 I would like to characterie briefly Polish accomplishments concerning construction of such matrices for our economy and statistics of national accounts in general. The first works in this field are connected with the person of Professor L. Zienkowski from the Department of Statistical-Economic Studies, Central Statistical Office in Poland, who pioneered and continued consistently the introduction of the system of national accounts to the Polish statistical accounting. The first Polish social accounting matrices built according to the SNA standards were published, for instance, in a book edited by S.I. Cohen (1993). The work contains a comparative analysis based on national accounts and SAM. Cohen submits to analysis the economies of countries undergoing economic transformation (Hungary, Poland), which are compared with the economies of Western European countries such as the Netherlands, Spain, Germany and Italy. Co-authors of chapters dealing with Poland are: L. Zienkowski, Z. Żółkiewski and A. B. Cyżewski. 5

6 The book edited by Cohen provides social accounting matrices for Poland for the years 1987 and 199. The matrices for those years were presented in an aggregated and desegregated form. Only aggregated variants are presented below. The matrices presented below do not contain information about shares of transactions in incomes (expenditures) on particular accounts, but they show the structure of transactions, with the sum total of all elements of the matrix of accounts being treated as equal to 1. This sum does not have a direct economic significance, but it allows to compare in an accessible manner money flows on different accounts and make comparisons over years and according to countries (matrices for all analyed countries of Western and Central-Eastern Europe are presented in a standardied system in Cohen s book). It should be remembered in these comparisons that these money flows are present in current prices. For comparative purposes with an aggregated version of SAM 95 built by me I made an additional aggregation of SAM 87 and SAM 9 bringing down all matrices to possible comparable shares. Table 1. Structure of SAM for Poland for 1987 (sum of all matrix elements equals 1) Total 1 Consumer goods & services 9,4 9,4 2 Labor 9, 9, 3 Capital 8, 8, 4 Households 7,2,9 1,7,4 1,2 5 Firms 6,,3 6,4 6 Government 1,7 1,,2 2,8,1,1 5,9 7 Accumulation,7 3,6 -,2 1,2 -, 5,3 8 Activities 9, 3,2 4,8 2,8 3,8 41,5 9 Rest of the World,4,9,5 2,5,1 4,4 Total 9,4 9, 8, 1,2 6,4 5,9 5,3 41,5 4,4 1 Source: On the basis of Cohen (1993) p.29 some items were additionally aggregated for the purposes of this paper 6

7 Table 2. Structure of SAM matrix for Poland for Total 1 Consumer goods & services 8,6 8,6 2 Labor 7,2 7,2 3 Capital 1,6 1,6 4 Households 5,5 3,2 2,,5 11,2 5 Firms 6,5 6,5 6 Government 1,7,9,1 3,6,3,3,1 6,9 7 Accumulation 2,4 3,,4 1,1 -,8 6, 8 Activities 7,9 3, 5, , 38,2 9 Rest of the World,7 1,2,7 2,1 4,8 Total 8,6 7,2 1,6 11,2 6,6 6,8 6, 38,2 4,8 1 Source: on the basis of Cohen (1993), p.29 some items were additionally aggregated for the purposes of this paper. Table 3. Structure of SAM for Poland for Total Labor 1 7, 7, Taxes from producers 2,2,2 Capital 3 7,5 7,5 Taxes from products 4 2,2 2,2 Ownership incomes title 5,1 2,2 1,1 3,4 Households 6 5, 4, 1,6,1 3,3,1,8 14,9 Firms 7 3,2 1,5,1,1 4,9 Government 8 2,,2,2 2,2,1 1,8,7 7,2 Non-commercial institutions 9,1,1,1,3 Accumulation 1 1,6 1,6,1,1 1,5 4,9 Activities 11 1,3 2,6,2 3,3 19,9 4,3 4,7 Rest of the World 12,2,9,2 1,5 3,9 6,7 Total 7,,2 7,5 2,2 3,4 14,9 4,9 7,2,3 4,9 4,7 6,7 1, Source: own estimates made in co-operation with B. Frascyk (M.A. dissertation). 7

8 Table 4. Share of main transactions in all transactions Gross output Intermediate deliveries Incomes from labor Incomes from capital Disposable incomes Household consumptio n Total investment ,5 2,8 9, 8, 1,2 9,4 5, ,2 17, 7,2 1,6 11,2 8,6 6, ,7 19,9 7, 7,5 14,9 1,3 4,9 Average for 4,1 19,2 7,8 8,7 12,1 9,4 5,4 Poland Average for selected EU countries 31, 15, 9,9 5,7 17,1 11,6 3,9 Source: Own estimates based on SAM 95 for Poland, SAM 1987 and 199 for Poland and EU countries published in Cohen S.I. (1993). A number of clear differences was pointed out both in Cohen s book (1993) and in other publications containing macroeconomic comparisons of western economies with Central and Eastern European economies. SAM 95 covers, to some extent, the results of five years of the Polish economic transformation and it seems to be a valuable analytical tool from this point of view. Among differences the authors would most frequently mention low effectiveness of the economy (big share of raw materials and materials, low value added), a bigger share of consumption in household expenditures than in western countries, a low share of transactions connected with the sector of households, which was translated directly into lower transactions reflecting disposable incomes of this sector than in western countries. A comparison of SAM for particular countries creates further analytical possibilities. These possibilities can be seen from Table 4 already presented in a synthetic form. The shares reflecting transactions in the field of household consumption in all transactions in the national economy are characteried in the years 1987, 199 and 1995 by respective figures 9.4; 8.6; 1.3. These figures in the analyed Western European countries in the 198s had an average value at the level of 11.6 (average for Poland 9.4). Personal income expenditures in Poland represent a considerable part of disposable incomes. The share of transactions covered by disposable incomes amounted, however, in western countries in the 198s on average to 17.1 as compared with only 12.1 for Poland in the analyed period. It could be seen that the share of transactions in this field rose in Although the share of consumption in disposable incomes is really quite big, the shares of transactions concerning personal income expenditures are still smaller than in western countries in the 198s. The role of transactions between households and the government institutions tended to grow visibly along with the transformation of our economy into a market economy. The shares of transfers from households to government institutions in the analyed years were:.2;.1; 1.8 respectively, while transfers from the budget to households were: 1.7; 2.; 3.3, which makes the latter closer to those observed in western countries in the 198s (4-5). The shares of transactions connected with indirect deliveries continue to be much bigger than in western countries. The average for Poland reaches 19.2 as compared with the average of 15. for western countries in the 198s. 8

9 3. Multiplier analysis To remind of some problems of the multiplier analysis we will start with input-output multipliers in the input-output model. In this model final demand is exogenous and gross output of particular activity sectors is endogenous, i.e. 1 ( I A) Y = X where Y final demand vector and X gross output vector (by activity sectors). 1 The sum elements of the matrix ( I A) = [ α ] is the production multiplier T M j = i α j 1 where α j - are elements of column j of the matrix ( I A), and i T is a summing up vector (row of unities). Multiplier M j indicates how much gross output in the whole economic system will increase if final demand for products of sector j increases by unity (e.g. by 1 PLN) Let us divide the accounts shown in SAM into endogenous and exogenous ones. Let endogenous accounts be production accounts (generation of incomes) and institutional current and capital accounts apart from the government and rest of the world sectors. The last two sectors will belong to exogenous accounts. 2 ij Scheme 2. SAM in division into endogenous and exogenous accounts* Expenditures Endogenous accounts Exogenous accounts Total Incomes Exogenous accounts Z = A x Y ˆ x 1 x 2! x n Exogenous accounts R = A x W r ˆ r 1 r 2! r s Total x1 x 2... xn r 1 r 2... rs *Source: According to notation used in Pyatt and Round (1985). 2 Not distinguishing particular analytical goals in this paper, I accepted usually used divisions see, for instance (Pyatt, Round (1985)), (Cohen (1993)). 9

10 Square Z matrix shows transactions between endogenous accounts. It is a product of matrix A - shares of particular expenditures on endogenous accounts in total expenditures (incomes) by these expenditures (incomes) presented in the form of the diagonal matrix: Z = A x and, thus A = Zxˆ 1. Matrix R, which is not generally a square matrix, is a product of matrix A r of shares of remaining expenditures ( transfers to the government sector and abroad) in expenditures on endogenous accounts by the vector of total expenditures: R = A x r ˆ and, thus A = Rxˆ 1 r. Unit changes in elements of matrix Y (which formally are incomes on endogenous accounts from transfers coming from exogenous accounts) are treated as impulses producing corresponding changes on endogenous accounts. Square matrix W shows transfers between exogenous accounts. Introducing a notation y = Yi vector of exogenous values (where i is a summing up vector with dimensions r 1 composed of unities) we obtain the relation: (1) x = A x + y. After transformations we get: 1 (2) x = ( I A ) y 1 on condition that ( I A ) exists. 1 Denoting matrix ( I A ) with a symbol of M a multiplier we obtain: (3) x = M a y. The element m ij of M a informs how endogenous variable x i will change (incomes on account i) under an influence of a change in exogenous variable y j by unity (increase of incomes on account j). In the case of SAM 95 version shown in Table 5, A matrix was divided into submatrices within appropriate groups of accounts to allow an appropriate interpretation of this matrix elements 3. Matrix A is presented in the scheme below: 3 A consequence of accepting a definite division is the structure and values of A matrix elements. 1

11 Scheme 3. Matrix A divided into submatrices according to appropriate groups (subsystems) of accounts A 13 A = A 21 A 22 A 32 A 33 A 13 matrix of shares of particular items of the income generation account in total supply of products by NACE activity sectors; A 21 matrix of shares of primary income elements of endogenous institutional sectors in total primary incomes of these sectors; A 22 matrix of shares of ownership incomes and redistribution transfers (current and capital transfers of incomes) in disposable incomes of endogenous institutional sectors; A 32 matrix of shares of particular items of final demand in disposable incomes of endogenous institutional sectors; A 33 matrix of shares of intermediate demand in total supply of products matrix of input-output coefficients - by NACE activity sectors. Following the transformations given in Pyatt and Round (1985) we will exclude from matrix A block matrix A. Scheme 4. Structure of matrix A A = A 22 A 33 Equation (1) is then equivalent to equation: (4) x = ( A A ) x + A x y + Transforming (4) gives: 1 1 (5) x = ( I A ) ( A A ) x + ( I A ) y A 1 ) 1 let A* = ( I A ) ( A ) (6) x = A * x + ( I A y Multiplying both sides by A* it can be noticed that: 2 1 (7) A* x = A* x + A* ( I A ) y It results from (6) that 2 1 (8) x = A * x + ( I + A*)( I A ) y A x x I A 1 * = ( ) y. Substituting it to equation (7) gives: 11

12 Multiplying (7) by A* and substituting for A * 2 x an expression from (8) yields: (9) x = ( I A * ) ( I + A * + A * )( I A ) y assuming that matrix ( I A* 3 ) 1 exists. Comparing equation (3) with equation (9) it can be seen that algebraic transformations presented above have led to decomposition of M a into three independent matrices. It shows that equation (9) can be written using symbols of multipliers, i.e.: (1) x = M M M x, assuming that: - M a3 a2 a1 1 a1 = ( I A ) 2 - M a = ( I + A* + * ) - 2 A 3 1 M a 3 = ( I A* ) Further algebraic transformations aimed at calculating matrices of multipliers M M M are also shown in Stone (1985). a1, a2 i a3 Decomposed multiplier M a can be presented in an additive form, which will make it more useful and will allow to determine the role of particular decomposed parts in the whole. Stone (1985) showed that multiplier M a can be expressed as 4 : (11) (a) M a = I + (M a1 I) + (M a3 I)M a1 + (M a2 I)M a3 M a1 (c) (d) (b) Particular elements of the sum are explained in the following way: (a) initial impulse (injection); (b) intragroup multipliers; (c) intergroup multipliers; (d) extragroup multipliers. Thus, the above denotation shows how the matrix of multipliers can be decomposed into particular elements (multipliers), with each of them referring to definite interrelationships (links) in the entire system. In our case we are dealing with three endogenous subsystems: primary incomes according to types and institutional sectors, primary and secondary division of incomes according to institutional sectors, and manufacturing of products (generation of incomes) according to NACE. A unit impulse on the exogenous account, for instance, growth of government transfers to households by 1 PLN, can: 4 It follows from (11) that M a = M 2 M 3 M 1 = M 3 M 2 M 1, which is in conformity with the relationship obtained by Stone (1985, p. 162), namely * * *3 1 1 x = ( I + A + A )( I A ) ( I A ) y. 12

13 Table 5. SAM' RAZEM labor costs producers taxes operating surplus taxes on products ownership incomes non-profit institutiones households financial corp non-financial corp non-profit institutions households financial corp non-financial corp A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O goverment cap. acc goverment current rest of the world current rest of the world cap. acc Total *) minus subsidies Source: own calculations

14 Table 5. Matrix of multipliers ,2753,,33883,,27773,63166,38515,2517,28485,,143,13646,45291,34725,447,56957,32952,5925,561 1,1599,61889,54218,7835, ,4 1,3819,92652, ,1239 1,,1493,,1235,2335,1733,94,1224,,442,572,1911,197,3199,1232,1367,2966,234,5633,2466,425,13862,3127,1725,1732,1675,3627 3,4243, 1,47386,,39596,58162,563,2871,37694,,13441,1784,57576,77287,39274,35416,37691,64619, ,52245,87147,77642,11945,83313,647,5595,56721,7932 4,4853,,8673 1,,5985,3962,6789,5656,1146,,5957,7762,25843,25275,38429,1629,369,15293, ,1364,1173,1864 -,4227,9487,4335,5821,9975,2712 5,11135,,3598, 1,35345,25,15577,6513,63932,,3357,4271,14388,192,9962,9177,9456,16242,1825,6297,2172,19325,376,2779,1575,14654,14714,219 6,1534,,3928,,2643 1,1936,2147,162,348,,387,493,166,2126,1183,1135,199,1895,296,6946,2486,2211,614,2388,1949,1846,1823, ,1894, 1,22844, 1,9856 1,1428 1,66396,7389,73753,,16484,21256,71133,76661,57989,64763,48951,8588,8918 2, ,2855,9972, ,338 1, ,1234 1,4756 1, ,4741,,12662,,5459,796,6632 1,24499,24712,,1234,1573,5294,6824,3754,3572,352,633,669,2229,7941,765,1847,7622,6134,5794,5737,7574 9,18568,,67589,,26874,27126,25977,1924 1,2111,,6171,7844,26434,35459,1844,16288,1738,29676, ,1573,44,3564,555,38247,27814,25745,2688, ,216,,552,,371,14327,32,225,489 1,,54,69,233,299,166,159,155,266,295,976,349,311,86,336,274,26,256,336 11,12782,,1322,,1186,11868,17883,7855,7926, 1,1771,2284,7645,8239,6232,696,5261,9229,9576,2726,1154,9777,6936,1783,12128,1269,11258, ,1264,,3375,,1345,217,1768,33185,6587,,329 1,419,1411,1819,11,952,933,168,1783,5941,2117,1883,492,232,1635,1544,1529,219 13,6262,,22794,,963,9148,8761,6416,4841,,281,2645 1,8915,11958,685,5493,5837,18,11289,3929,13491,1219,1872,12899,938,8682,8798, ,18124,,2593,,1747,18481,25356,12196,15472,,5946,5785, ,45643,14177,12634,19311,17563,19479,57541,21424,18423,1217,19378,22115,1971,22847, ,146,,167,,141,154,24,11,127,,43,55,186,172 1,42437,19,198,153,174,412,31,164,122,173,195,171,225,169 16,6522,,7697,,6419,7864,9125,4677,6192,,2262,2856,9656,899,5898 1,1713,8132,37465,1692,22811,1668,1276,5564,11591,9541,88,9622, ,94569, 1,15619,, ,279 1,3232,715,9937,,38542, ,6662 1,11,9956, , , , ,921 1,2787 1,2446,7899 1, , ,1297 1,1991 1, ,838,,954,,7739,999,11245,5459,6636,,2123,2737,916,9185,6784,142,7322 1,21582,9951,26922,1543,11977,8195,17824,12727,1289,11649, ,8355,,17714,,1156,1239,11688,11979,25871,,13364,1922,6149,1174,6729,893,6547,1253 1,24926,3525,14384,1252,4574,15628,17443,13652,11862, ,14721,,15966,,1398,15652,2595,9561,1816,,3128,3916,13297,1259,1734,1267,8842,14916, ,44277,241,16836,17215,18762,2897,17747,15931, ,1535,,1675,,1456,1714,2148,16,1149,,331,432,1437,1317,1131,149,18,1522,1823,4433 1,7417,3846,2297,1798,2174,2265,288, ,169,,12114,,1323,12492,14955,7328,913,,2932,383,12737,1846,13983,199,933,16661,15844,3878,2678 1,33871,1459,15825,16283,1576,13921, ,1917,,2117,,1827,239,2681,1275,1496,,455,589,1968,182,1328,1329,1682,2361,222,5698,2328,2349 1,16855,2225,2557,2498,2637, ,13155,,15946,,13143,15733,1844,984,13461,,54,6748,2212,13315,1743,12165,11442,187,221,46842,19691,18927, ,3959,2241,22454,19325, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1,,,, 26,192,,1338,,1116,9449,1528,735,919,,188,234,796,845,615,669,548,969,968,2765,1138,133,153,1124,1196 1,1639,155,124 27,662,,797,,669,4861,927,445,55,,121,153,516,652,388,447,376,589,621,1858,936,637,85,73,167,688 1,2912,763 28,5834,,7259,,616,53578,8162,3968,582,,19,1312,4543,4796,444,3912,387,537,5422,15313,151,6341,3524,632,7154,6465,6999 1,993 Source: own calculations. 14

15 1) release direct and indirect reactions (feedbacks) within an account of a given subsystem similar to those which find reflection in the matrix of full outlays in the input-output analysis, 2) release reactions with the remaining subsystems through shifting an impulse onto the remaining subsystems and returning to the account of initial subsystem; 3) release a reaction passing through all subsystems, which produces a change on an account of another subsystem. Table 5 contains SAM 95 and Table 6 presents corresponding multipliers. Due to limited frames of this paper we do not include elements (b), (c) and (d) see: (11). For illustration purposes we are giving these elements in the case of household accounts. Let us take into account several elements of the multipliers matrix column corresponding to household accounts. Element: m 77 = 1,66396 = 1 +,17 +, (a) (b) (c) (d) which means that the primary impulse in the form of government transfers to households by 1 PLN gives the income (as the result of direct and indirect reactions within the subsystem of income distribution) of 11.7 PLN and of PLN as a result of indirect reactions with other subsystems (e.g. additional income earned by households due to the loop: the higher the income, the higher the demand for products, the higher the primary incomes, the higher incomes as a result of distribution processes. Element: m 97 =,25977 = +,134 +, (a) (b) (c) (d) This multiplier concerns the account of firms classified in the same subsystem, i.e. subsystem the redistribution of incomes. It means that primary impulse in the form of growth by 1 PLN of government transfers to households raises firms income by PLN as the result of intra- and inter groups effects. Element: m 15,7 =,24 = + + +,24 (a) (b) (c) (d) means that primary impulse by 1 PLN to the household sector raises household spending on construction services by only 2 PLN. Element m 15.7 belongs to an external subsystem (the account of construction products). Summing up, the well known restrictions of SAM and the multiplier analysis should be pointed out: 15

16 1. Relations between particular categories have a linear character. 2. They are static, that is, there are no lags showing multiplier reactions. 3. Division into exogenous and endogenous parts will be always controversial. 4. No distinction is made between quantitative and ad valorem variables these are multipliers assuming constant prices (with a bigger income either more money can be spent on purchasing a definite product if its price is the same or the same quantity (or less) can be purchased when prices rise. These restrictions cause that more developed models are built on the basis of SAM, which are of a wide spectrum starting with simple attempts at modeling transactions of generation and distribution of incomes and ending with sophisticated general equilibrium models. The structure and way of construction of SAM 95 presented here fits, first of all, the needs of multisectoral model of the Polish economy IMPEC, which is regularly used as a tool of simulation and forecasting analyses. The identities used in IMPEC characteriing the main income flows by institutions in the transformed Polish economy are almost entirely based on SAM 95. References Cohen S.I. Patterns of Economic Restructuring for Eastern Europe, Avebury. Input-output table for 1995 (1999), Central Statistical Office, Warsaw (in Polish). National accounts according to institutional sectors and subsectors (2), Central Statistical Office, Warsaw (in Polish). Pyatt G., Round J.I (1985) Accounting and Fixed-Price Multipliers in a Social Accounting Matrix Framework in: Pyatt G., J.I. Round (eds.) Social accounting matrices: a basis for planning, Washington DC, World Bank. Stone R. (1985), The Desegregation of the Household Sector in the National Accounts in: Pyatt G., J.I. Round (eds.) Social accounting matrices: a basis for planning, Washington DC, World Bank. Tomasewic Ł. (1994), Input-Output Methods, Polish Economic Editor, Warsaw. 16