NCsoft ( KS) Betting on the future. Game. Buy. Earnings Preview. Upside catalysts: China, new title releases, and online console games

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1 (3657 KS) Betting on the future Game Earnings Preview April 25, 213 (Maintain) Buy Target Price (12M, W) 25, Share Price (4/24/13, W) 165,5 Expected Return 51% OP (13F, Wbn) 251 Consensus OP (13F, Wbn) 223 EPS Growth (13F, %) 46.4 Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 2. P/E (13F, x) 15.9 Market P/E (13F, x) 9.3 KOSPI 1, Market Cap (Wbn) 3,626 Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 Free Float (%) 76.3 Foreign Ownership (%) 33.5 Beta (12M) Week Low (W) 125, 52-Week High (W) 298, (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute Relative Share price KOSPI 4/12 8/12 12/12 4/13 Upside catalysts: China, new title releases, and online console games We believe strong upside momentum lies ahead for. First, 1Q earnings are likely to come in better than expected, backed by the strong performances of existing titles Lineage and Guild Wars 2. We thus adjusted up our 213F EPS by 28.5%. Also encouraging is the disclosure of the Chinese closed beta schedule for Blade & Soul (May 7 th ), which has removed a key potential risk: a delay to the company s biggest event of the year. Furthermore, we now have a clearer picture of the schedules for: 1) the mobile launch of Lineage (2Q), 2) the US and European commercial releases of WildStar (2H), and 3) the Chinese launch of Guild Wars 2 (closed beta test (CBT) set for May 2 nd ). Looking ahead to 2H, we expect some major developments from the online console gaming segment, as game consoles (PlayStation 4 and Xbox 72) with much more advanced online features are scheduled to hit the market, and rival game Diablo 3 is set to come out in a console format. 1Q OP to soar to W52.4bn on solid performance of Lineage and Guild Wars 2 We had originally feared an earnings slowdown in 1H in light of the firm s conservative 213 guidance and the outflow of Blade & Soul users in 1Q. However, existing titles (Lineage, Aion, Guild Wars 2, etc.) appear to have performed better than expected in 1Q both domestically and overseas. We now estimate 1Q revenue and operating profit at W23.1bn (+43.8% YoY) and W52.4bn (+323.6% YoY), respectively, above our previous estimates (W172bn and W35bn) and the market consensus (W181bn and W43.7bn). Raise TP to W25, in line with upward revisions to 213 estimates We lift our target price to W25, (from W2,), as we adjusted up our 213F and 214F EPS by 28.5% and 26.8%, respectively. We call for continued, robust earnings momentum into 214, as: 1) Chinese revenue from Blade & Soul and Guild Wars 2 as well as US and European revenue from WildStar are likely to be fully reflected next year, and 2) the release of the Guild Wars 2 expansion pack has been pushed back to 214 from 213. Our revised target price is based on a 213F P/E of 24x. Over the past decade, the stock s P/E has ranged between 2-4x, with its multiple tending to expand on heightened new game expectations before contracting again once new revenue was recognized. shares have been trading below historical levels as the focus on online smartphone games has intensified (the firm s business is oriented toward online PC games). However, we believe a re-rating is on the horizon given the potential for betterthan-expected earnings in 2H, and upcoming positive shifts in the online gaming console market. Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Internet/Game/Entertainment Chang-kwean Kim changkwean.kim@dwsec.com FY (Dec.) 12/1 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Revenue (Wbn) ,149 1,288 OP (Wbn) OP Margin (%) NP (Wbn) EPS (W) 6,62 5,529 7,121 1,428 14,543 16,32 ROE (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S.

2 April 25, 213 New momentum outlook for 2H Figure 1. Share price trends and new game releases Historically, s share price has largely moved in lockstep with operating profit. The company s 212 earnings failed to meet our expectations, despite the strong-than-expected performance of Guild Wars 2 (commercially launched in August, 212). We attribute the weakerthan-expected earnings in 212 to the following: 1) earnings from existing titles, including Aion, were eroded by the popularity of foreign games like League of Legends, and 2) Blade & Soul (commercially launched in June 212) failed to generate new demand. We expect 1Q results to confirm that the performances of existing titles (Lineage, Aion, etc.) had bottomed in 4Q12, and that the popularity of Guild Wars 2 will last longer than expected in the US and Europe. Lineage registered record-high sales in 4Q12 and 1Q13 on the back of in-game item sales events. Due to a high base of comparison, sales from the game are projected to decline QoQ in 2Q, and CD sales of Guild Wars 2 are also projected to slide QoQ. However, Blade & Soul is expected to see a pickup in gamers in Korea in 2Q thanks to the update of its new map, White Blue Mountains. Blade & Soul s user indicator trend after the update should have a great impact on the company s 2Q earnings and the popularity of the game in China. Meanwhile, the Chinese closed-beta testing (CBT) for Blade & Soul is scheduled to begin on May 7 th. In addition, KongZhong, a Chinese partner for the launch of Guild Wars 2, announced that the CBT for the game will start on May 2 nd. is likely to take time to update Blade & Soul and to meet the strict localization requests of Chinese publisher Tencent to offset the game s dismal performance in Korea. However, Guild Wars 2 is likely to be commercialized quickly in China after undergoing simple localization processes, including translation and some graphics changes. We assumed that royalty income from the games will be reflected starting in 3Q. The CBT for WildStar is also scheduled to begin in 2Q. As new games are usually released before Black Friday in the US and Europe, we project WildStar to be commercially launched sometime during end-3q-4q. Meanwhile, we estimate this year s WildStar sales at a third of Guild Wars 2 sales in 212. (W) 48, 36, 24, Share price (L) Operating profit (R) Aion OBT, commercialization in Japan, Taiwan, Europe, North America Aion OBT, commercialization in China Guild Wars 2, WildStar participated in Paris Games Week Guild Wars 2 was named Editors' Game of the Show at Eurogamer Expo in UK Blade & Soul was demonstrated at G-Star game show in Korea Guild Wars 2 was unveiled at gamescom Blade & Soul: China export contract with Tencent Blade & Soul: 1st CBT in Korea Lineage, Lineage 2, China export contract (renewal) Blade & Soul was demonstrated at ChinaJoy Game show in Shanghai Guild Wars 2 CBT in North America, / Europe Blade & Soul's Chinese version is unveiled at Tencent Games Carnival (Wbn) , Aion OBT, commercialization in Korea Schedule for 213 * Guild Wars 2 CBT in China starts on May 2nd * Blade & Soul CBT in China starts on May 7th * Launch of Lineage Mobile in Japan in 2Q13 * Launch of WildStar in North America/Europe in 4Q13 3 1/8 7/8 1/9 7/9 1/1 7/1 7/13 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS Source: Company data, estimates 2

3 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; TTB and TTR stand for turn to black and turn to red, NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, estimates April 25, 213 Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13F 2Q13F 3Q13F 4Q13F F Revenue Lineage Lineage II Aion Blade & Soul Guild Wars WildStar Other Royalties OP OP margin Pretax profit Pretax margin NP NP margin YoY change Revenue Lineage Lineage II Aion Blade & Soul Guild Wars Other Royalties OP TTR TTB Pretax profit TTR TTB TTB NP -6.7 TTR TTB QoQ change Revenue Lineage Lineage II Aion Blade & Soul Guild Wars Other Royalties Operating profit TTR TTB Pretax profit TTR TTB Net profit TTR TTB Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; TTB and TTR stand for turn to black and turn to red, NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, estimates Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions Previous Revised % chg. (Wbn, W, %, %p) 213F 214F 213F 214F 213F 214F Revenue 851 1, , Operating profit Net profit EPS 8,114 11,469 1,428 14, OP margin Net Margin Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS, NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, estimates 3

4 April 25, 213 Figure 2. User indicator trends for and major foreign games games - daily (L) Foreign games - daily (L) games - monthly (R) Foreign games - monthly (R) Note: Total playing time in PC cafés (Lineage, Lineage II, Blade & Soul, Aion) Source: Gametrics, Figure 3. User indicator trend for s major games excluding Blade & Soul 3 games ex-blade & Soul - daily (L) 6 games ex-blade & Soul - monthly (R) Note: Total playing time in PC cafés (Lineage, Lineage II, Aion) Source: Gametrics, Figure 4. Unique visitors to Guild Wars 2 website (' persons) 32 Unique visitors to Eurogamer Expo in the UK Editors' Game of the Show Comic-Con in the US Paris Games Week People's Choice Award Limited beta test in the US and Europe (1bn applicants for CBT) Pre-sales (April 1th) Comic-Con in the US Launch of Guild Wars 2 Unique visitors in 1Q13: Around 7% of 4Q12 level 1/11 5/11 9/11 1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 Note: Number of visitors to North America) Source: Compete.com, 4

5 April 25, 213 Figure 5. User indicator trend for Lineage Figure 6. User indicator trend for Lineage II (' hours) 5 Lineage - daily (L) Lineage - monthly (R) 1 (' hours) 5 Lineage II - daily (L) Lineage II - monthly (R) ' Note: Total playing time in PC cafés (Lineage) Source: Gametrics, Note: Total playing time in PC cafés (Lineage II) Source: Gametrics, Figure 7. User indicator trend for Aion Figure 8. User indicator trend for Blade & Soul (' hours) 2,5 Aion - daily (L) Aion - monthly (R) 5 (' hours) 2, Blade & Soul - daily (L) Blade & Soul - monthly (R) 5 2, 4 1,6 4 1,5 3 1,2 3 1, Note: Total playing time in PC cafés (Aion) Source: Gametrics, Note: Total playing time in PC cafés (Blade & Soul) Source: Gametrics, Figure 9. User indicator trend for League of Legends Figure 1. User indicator trend for Diablo III (' hours) 3, 2,5 2, League of Legends - daily (L) League of Legends - monthly (R) 8 6 (' hours) 3,5 3, 2,5 Diablo III - daily (L) Diablo III - monthly (R) ,5 4 2, 1,5 3 1, 5 2 1, 5 15 Note: Total playing time in PC cafés (League of Legends) Source: Gametrics, Note: Total playing time in PC cafés (Diablo III) Source: Gametrics, 5

6 April 25, 213 Figure 11. Long-term P/E trend of (x) P/E Online game boom Schedule for 213 * Guild Wars 2 CBT in China starts on May 2nd * Blade & Soul CBT in China starts on May 7th * Launch of Lineage Mobile in Japan in 2Q13 * Launch of WildStar in North America/Europe in 4Q13 213F P/E: 15.9x / 1/2 7/3 1/5 7/6 1/8 7/9 1/11 7/12 Note: P/E calculated with last daily prices and year-end EPS Source: Figure 12. P/E trend and new game releases (x) P/E 62.4 Online game boom 43.4 Launch of Lineage Launch of Tabula Rasa 43.6 Launch of Aion F P/E: 15.9x Note: P/E calculated with last daily prices and year-end EPS Source: 8.5 7/ 1/2 7/3 1/5 7/6 1/8 7/9 1/11 7/ Figure F P/E-EPS growth comparison of global game companies (P/E, x) Sega Sammy (Japan) Tencent (China) 2. Konami (Japan) Gameloft (France) Gamevil Com2uS Electronic Arts (US) 15. Activision Blizzard (US) Namco Bandai (Japan) 1. DeNA (Japan) 5. Neowiz Games (EPS growth, %) Source: Bloomberg, 6

7 April 25, 213 Table 3. Earnings forecasts and valuations of global game companies (Wbn, local currency mn, %, x) Korea North America/ Europe Japan China Company name Market cap. Share price Revenue OP OP margin NP EPS ROE P/E P/B 3, , Neowiz Games , Gamevil , Com2uS , GameHi 276 8, WeMade , Webzen 352 9, JCE 22 18, Nexon 5,833 1, Large cap Mid-small cap Mobile games Average Activision Blizzard 18, ,856 1, , Electronic Arts 5, , Take-Two 1, THQ Zynga 2, , Gameloft Glu Mobile Average Nintendo 19,8 11, Sega Sammy 7,425 2, Namco Bandai 4,54 1, Konami 3,545 2, DeNA 483,431 2, Average Shanda Netease.com 7, , The Perfect World Tencent 67, ,963 18, , Kingsoft 1, , Average Global Average Notes: Among Korean companies,, Neowiz Games, Gamevil, Com2uS' earnings are based on consolidated K-IFRS; Among Chinese companies, Tencent and Kingsoft are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, while the others are listed on the NASDAQ; Per-share data are in local currency; Market cap figures are in Wbn; All other units are in local currency mn except Korea, Japan (local currency bn) Source: Bloomberg, 7

8 April 25, 213 Table 4. Earnings forecasts and valuations of global game companies (Wbn, local currency mn, %, x) Korea Company name Market cap. Share price Revenue OP OP margin NP EPS ROE P/E P/B Neowiz Games Gamevil Come2uS GameHi WeMade , Webzen JCE Nexon Large cap Mid-small cap Mobile games Average Activision Blizzard 4,275 1, Electronic Arts 3, Take-Two 1, North THQ America/ Europe Zynga 1, Gameloft Japan China Glu Mobile Average Nintendo Sega Sammy Namco Bandai Konami DeNA Average Shanda Netease.com 1, The Perfect World Tencent 9,426 3, , Kingsoft 2, Average Global Average Note: Among Korean companies,, Neowiz Games, Gamevil, Com2uS' earnings are based on consolidated K-IFRS; Among Chinese companies, Tencent and Kingsoft are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, while the others are listed on the NASDAQ; Per-share data are in local currency; Market cap figures are in Wbn; All other units are in local currency mn except Korea, Japan (local currency bn) Source: Bloomberg, 8

9 April 25, 213 (3657 KS/Buy/TP: W25,) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F (Wbn) 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Revenue ,149 1,288 Current Assets ,285 1,653 Cost of Sales Cash and Cash Equivalents ,22 Gross Profit AR & Other Receivables SG&A Expenses Inventories Operating Profit (Adj) Other Current Assets Operating Profit Non-Current Assets Non-Operating Profit Investments in Associates Net Financial Income Property, Plant and Equipment Net Gain from Inv in Associates 7 Intangible Assets Pretax Profit Total Assets 1,317 1,628 2,13 2,39 Income Tax Current Liabilities Profit from Continuing Operations AP & Other Payables Profit from Discontinued Operations Short-Term Financial Liabilities Net Profit Other Current Liabilities Controlling Interests Non-Current Liabilities Non-Controlling Interests Long-Term Financial Liabilities Total Comprehensive Profit Other Non-Current Liabilities Controlling Interests Total Liabilities Non-Controlling Interests Controlling Interests 1,1 1,216 1,513 1,845 EBITDA Capital Stock FCF (Free Cash Flow) Capital Surplus EBITDA Margin (%) Retained Earnings 871 1,87 1,386 1,72 Operating Profit Margin (%) Non-Controlling Interests Net Profit Margin (%) Stockholders' Equity 1,21 1,231 1,524 1,851 Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Cash Flows from Op Activities P/E (x) Net Profit P/CF (x) Non-Cash Income and Expense P/B (x) Depreciation EV/EBITDA (x) Amortization EPS (W) 7,121 1,428 14,543 16,32 Others CFPS (W) 8,873 11,464 15,418 17,74 Chg in Working Capital BPS (W) 44,296 54,537 68,416 83,795 Chg in AR & Other Receivables DPS (W) 6 1, 1,2 1,5 Chg in Inventories -1-1 Payout ratio (%) Chg in AP & Other Payables Dividend Yield (%) Income Tax Paid Revenue Growth (%) Cash Flows from Inv Activities EBITDA Growth (%) Chg in PP&E -89 Operating Profit Growth (%) Chg in Intangible Assets EPS Growth (%) Chg in Financial Assets 25 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) Others Inventory Turnover (x) Cash Flows from Fin Activities Accounts Payable Turnover (x) Chg in Financial Liabilities 15 ROA (%) Chg in Equity 3 ROE (%) Dividends Paid ROIC (%) Others Liability to Equity Ratio (%) Increase (Decrease) in Cash Current Ratio (%) Beginning Balance Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) Ending Balance ,22 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) Source: Company data, estimates 9

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(W) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 4/11 1/11 4/12 1/12 4/13 Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy Relative performance of 2% or greater Overweight Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy Relative performance of 1% or greater, but with volatility Neutral Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold Relative performance of -1% and 1% Underweight Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell Relative performance of -1% * Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (----), Target price (----), Not covered ( ), Buy ( ), Trading Buy ( ), Hold ( ), Sell ( )) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Daewoo Securities, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst s estimate of future earnings. 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