MENA Market Intelligence Week ending 22 nd of November
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1 Kuwait Financial Centre Markaz R E S E A R C H Research Highlights: Provide readers with weekly updates on analysts recommendations from different investment houses, collate views on the state of MENA economy, sector developments and fixed income news. Markaz Research is available on: Bloomberg - Type MRKZ Thomson Research, Reuters Knowledge Nooz Zawya Investor ISI Emerging markets Capital IQ FactSet Research Connect TheMarkets.com M.R. Raghu CFA, FRM Head of Research rmandagolathur@markaz.com Humoud Salah N AL Sabah Financial Analyst halsabah@markaz.com MENA Market Intelligence Week ending 22 nd of November Market Performance: With the exception of Turkey and Kuwait [+0.3% and +1.95% respectively] MENA markets ended the week on a negative note. Egypt was the biggest decliner [-3.87%] following fresh political setbacks. Equity Research: Equity research reports had split recommendation outlook, out of 7 research notes covered, 50% were Buy while 50% were Neutral. Fixed Income Development: GCC debt security issuance in circulation reached USD 233 Bn, which is equivalent to 17% of GDP this is relatively low when compared with developed markets. In developed markets, Government bonds alone exceeded 100% of GDP. Table 1: Market Performance M. Cap (USD Bn) Last WTD MTD YTD 2011 MENA Markets Close % % % % Saudi (TASI) 361 6, Turkey ISE National , Kuwait SE WT.INDEX Qatar(QE Index) 97 8, Abu Dhabi (ADI) 79 2, Morocco (CAI) 53 9, Dubai (DFMGI) 48 1, Egypt (Hermes) Jordan (Amman) 23 4, Bahrain (BAX) 16 1, Oman(Muscat SM) 15 5, Lebanon (BSE) 12 1, Note: 1 Weekend Details Saudi Arabia Thursday & Friday; Turkey, Morocco & Lebanon Saturday & Sunday; MENA Ex-Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Morocco & Lebanon Friday & Saturday; US, European & Emerging Markets Saturday & Sunday Kuwait Financial Centre S.A.K. Markaz P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095, Kuwait Tel: Fax: markaz.com
2 What Analysts are Recommending Company Currency Recommendation Date of recommendation R E S E A R C H Market price on recom day Aramex AED Overweight 20-Nov Target House Al-Jazira Capital Maridive USD Accumulate 19-Nov Audi Sardar GB Auto EGP Buy 22-Nov NAEEM Sixth of October development 7 Investment EGP Hold 18-Nov PHAROS Vodafone Qatar QAR Market Perform 18-Nov QNB Capital Qatar international Islamic Bank QAR Market Perform 19-Nov QNB Capital Raysut Cement OMR Neutral 21-Nov Oman Bank Equity Recommendation - Key points Company House Recommendation Rationale Sixth Of October Development and Investment Pharos Hold SODIC have a strong franchise and solid business model; however, it lacks positive triggers. Based on the previous Pharos issued a Hold recommendation with a price target of EGP Vodafone Qatar Aramex (U.A.E) Commercial International Bank (Qatar) Maridive Qatar National Bank ALJAZIRA Capital Qatar National Bank Audi Sardar Market Perform Overweight Market perform Accumulate Subscriber base increased 6.6% during the 3 rd quarter, this came at the expense of ARPU s which declined by 5.1% during the quarter. Based on the above, QNB reiterates its Market perform recommendation with a price target of QAR8.68, indicating a 7.8% upside potential. Despite lower than expected 3Q12 results, Al-Jazira remains bullish on Aramex. Recommendation is maintained at Overweight with a new target price of AED2.51, implying a 32% upside potential over current price. 3Q12 profitability was lower than expected; nevertheless, QNB forecast that CIB will benefit from Qatar s continuous economic growth. QNB initiated its report on CIB with a Market perform recommendation and a price target of QAR 57.25, indicating a 9.7% upside potential. 3Q12 revenues stood at USD 62.3mn, 7% above expectation; while, Cost of Goods Sold dropped by 46% YoY to USD 36.9 mn. The ability to renew contracts were one of the top reasons that lead to an Accumulate recommendation with a price target of USD1.04
3 R E S E A R C H Raysut Cement (Oman) Oman Arab Bank Neutral Valuations indicate that Raysut is fairly valued; thus, Oman Arab Bank issued a Neutral recommendation with a price target of OMR GB Auto NAEEM Buy Supply remains the main issue affecting GB Auto, However, its being addressed by Hyundai Motor Corporation. Recovery in the commercial vehicle segment lead NAEEM to reiterates its Buy recommendation with a price target of EGP 38.7, implying a 33% upside potential.
4 R E S E A R C H Fixed Income News Sources which include Bloomberg, Zawya, and daily newspapers were utilized in the creation of the fixed income section which is mainly from Markaz GCC daily report Title Market View Dana Gas Debt Deal Said to Include $100 Million Cash Payout NBB, SIO Hold Talks With Investment Dar on Bahrain Islamic Stake GCC Utilization of Bond Markets is Growing Record Gulf Sukuk Mask Dearth of Private Sales: Islamic Finance U.A.E Bahrain GCC GCC Dana Gas PJSC plans to pay bondholders about $100 million in cash as part of the $920 million debt restructuring accord. The cash would be paid to holders of the Shariah-compliant notes, or Sukuk, once a lockup agreement between Dana Gas and its creditors is signed, likely later this month. National Bank of Bahrain and the Social Insurance Organization are in talks with Investment Dar, the Kuwait-based majority owner of Aston Martin Lagonda Ltd., for a potential acquisition of shares in Bahrain Islamic Bank. The talks are at a preliminary stage and a potential acquisition is subject to completion of the due diligence process and regulatory approvals. It didn t specify the amount of shares. Investment Dar holds a percent stake in the Bahraini bank. Investment Dar last year restructured the terms on about $5 billion of loans after defaulting in There is US$233bn in debt securities issued in the GCC in circulation, equivalent to 17% of the region's GDP. This is a relatively low level compared with advanced economies where government bonds alone often amount to over 100% of GDP. According to analysis by QNB Group, this debt includes US$17bn in central bank T-bills (short-term debt instruments that are generally used to manage domestic liquidity) and US$216bn in longer-term bonds & Sukuks. Gulf governments, spending their oil wealth on $1 trillion worth of projects from airports to soccer stadiums, which will fuel a second year of record Islamic bond sales in 2013 as private companies remain reliant on bank loans. Sukuk issuance by governments and state-linked companies in the sixnation Gulf Cooperation Council made up more than 80 percent of the $20 billion of notes sold this year. That s about 10 percentage points more than in Malaysia, home to the biggest global Sukuk market.
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6 Disclaimer This report has been prepared and issued by Kuwait Financial Centre S.A.K (Markaz), which is regulated by the Central Bank of Kuwait. The report is owned by Markaz and is privileged and proprietary and is subject to copyrights. Sale of any copies of this report is strictly prohibited. This report cannot be quoted without the prior written consent of Markaz. Any user after obtaining Markaz permission to use this report must clearly mention the source as Markaz. The report is intended to be circulated for general information only and should not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made that such information and data is accurate or complete, and therefore should not be relied upon as such. Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Markaz and are subject to change without notice. Markaz has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate, or if research on the subject company is withdrawn. This report may not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors are urged to seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and to understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security s price or value may rise or fall. Investors should be able and willing to accept a total or partial loss of their investment. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Kuwait Financial Centre S.A.K (Markaz) does and seeks to do business, including investment banking deals, with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to website material of Markaz, Markaz has not reviewed the linked site and takes no responsibility for the content contained therein. Such address or hyperlink (including addresses or hyperlinks to Markaz s own website material) is provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this document. Accessing such website or following such link through this report or Markaz s website shall be at your own risk. For further information, please contact Markaz at P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095, Kuwait; research@markaz.com ; Tel: ; Fax:
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3-Aug 3-Sep 5-Sep 9-Sep 11-Sep 16-Sep 18-Sep 2-Sep 24-Sep 26-Sep 3-Sep 2-Oct 3 October 218 Daman Morning Call GCC MarketWatch UAE Indices Last Close 1D 1D % YTD% 1M % 1Y % P/E Multiple (x) 2,864 5,19 Abu
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2-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 4-Mar 6-Mar 1-Mar 12-Mar 14-Mar 18-Mar 2-Mar 24-Mar 25 March 219 Daman Morning Call GCC MarketWatch UAE Indices Last Close 1D 1D % YTD% 1M % 1Y % P/E Multiple (x) 2,697 5,178
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25-Sep 27-Sep 1-Oct 3-Oct 7-Oct 9-Oct 11-Oct 15-Oct 17-Oct 21-Oct 23-Oct 25-Oct 28 October 218 Daman Morning Call GCC MarketWatch UAE Indices Last Close 1D 1D % YTD% 1M % 1Y % P/E Multiple (x) 2,864 5,46
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1-Sep 12-Sep 14-Sep 18-Sep 2-Sep 24-Sep 26-Sep 28-Sep 2-Oct 4-Oct 8-Oct 1-Oct 11 October 217 Daman Morning Call GCC MarketWatch UAE Indices Last Close 1D 1D % YTD% 1M % 1Y % P/E Multiple (x) 3,679 4,54
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1-Mar 5-Mar 7-Mar 9-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar 2-Apr 3 April 217 Daman Morning Call GCC MarketWatch UAE Indices Last Close 1D 1D % YTD% 1M % 1Y % P/E Multiple (x) 3,639 4,627
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29-Dec 2-Jan 4-Jan 8-Jan 1-Jan 12-Jan 16-Jan 18-Jan 22-Jan 24-Jan 26-Jan 3-Jan 31 January 217 Daman Morning Call GCC MarketWatch UAE Indices Abu Dhabi Securities Market General Last Close 1D 1D % YTD%
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5-Mar 7-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 31-Mar 2-Apr 4-Apr 7 April 219 Daman Morning Call GCC MarketWatch UAE Indices Last Close 1D 1D % YTD% 1M % 1Y % P/E Multiple (x) 2,79 5,153
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17-Apr 19-Apr 23-Apr 25-Apr 27-Apr 1-May 3-May 7-May 9-May 11-May 15-May 17-May 18 May 217 Daman Morning Call GCC MarketWatch UAE Indices Last Close 1D 1D % YTD% 1M % 1Y % P/E Multiple (x) 3,523 4,64 Abu
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21-Mar 23-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar 2-Apr 4-Apr 6-Apr 1-Apr 12-Apr 16-Apr 18-Apr 2-Apr 23 April 217 Daman Morning Call GCC MarketWatch UAE Indices Last Close 1D 1D % YTD% 1M % 1Y % P/E Multiple (x) 3,591 4,664
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21-Feb 25-Feb 27-Feb 3-Mar 5-Mar 7-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 25-Mar 26 March 219 Daman Morning Call GCC MarketWatch UAE Indices Last Close 1D 1D % YTD% 1M % 1Y % P/E Multiple (x) 2,697 5,178
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