PGCIL order inflow analysis and a comparative study on Transmission EPC players

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1 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 v-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 (%) PGCIL order inflow analysis and a comparative study on Transmission EPC players Executive Summary Ordering activity broadly on par with last year; substation ordering stays firm; Techno Electric remains our top pick Ordering activity stays flat y-o-y till Mid-March Ordering activity by Power Grid (PGCIL) in FY16 (till mid-march, Rs.155bn) has been broadly on par with FY15. This is inspite of weaker ordering in 2HFY16 which witnessed a decline of ~5% y-o-y. Ordering pace in the transmission line segment registered a decline of 4% y-o-y. Substation and transformers ordering remained healthy at Rs.4bn (flat yoy) and Rs. 7.4bn (15% yoy increase) respectively TLT ordering see decline y-o-y, KECI, KPP win sizeable market share Transmission line tower (TLT) ordering had witnesses a y-o-y decline of 4% to Rs. 46bn in FY16 (till mid-march). Core TLT contractors KEC (KECI), Kalpataru Power (KPP)- secured a healthy share of ~4% of the overall TLT ordering during the period. We believe recent weakness in TLT ordering to be only a near term concern (timing issue) and should pick-up as Rs. 4bn worth of PGCIL TLT tenders are in the immediate pipeline. Competitive intensity has stabilized at ~6 bidders per TLT contract over the past 3-4 quarters. We expect EBITDA margin for TLT contractors to be ~9-1% going forward. Substation ordering momentum continues, Chinese/Korean players dominate GIS, TEEC wins sizeable share in AIS Substation orders remained healthy at Rs. 4bn in FY16 (vs. Rs. 44bn in FY15 and Rs. 26bn in FY14). Chinese/Korean players continued to dominate the Gas Insulated Substation (GIS) segment by bidding for/winning majority of the GIS orders inspite of competition from MNC players (ABB, ATD and SIEM). In Air insulated substation (AIS) orders, Techno Electric (TEEC) had registered sizeable orders Rs. 4.2bn (22% market share). It has also won a STATCOM order with Rongxin (Rs. 4.8bn order). Robust substation ordering by PGCIL, improved ordering by SEBs and new STATCOM orders (2-3 orders in the next 12 months) should improve the order inflow prospects for TEEC International opportunity large, KECI,KPP to benefit given their presence Transmission and distribution (T&D) spend by international regions is expected to be strong inspite of global headwinds. Latest reports suggest MENA region is likely to spend ~USD 5bn in T&D spend over the next five years. Already ~$8bn has been spent in 215 in the region. Similarly, top five African countries are expected to spend ~USD 3bn over the next 4-5 years. Given KECI and KPP s sizeable presence (~5% of TLT order book in international markets), we expect ordering momentum to sustain. Comparative Analysis: Prefer Techno among the trio followed by KECI and KPP We remain positive on KECI, KPP and TEEC given the increasing transmission spend in both domestic and international markets. We prefer TEEC given the high quality management, conservative approach, strong order book position (2x book-to-bill) and possible triggers from wind power asset sale. Assign 16x FY18E earnings and Rs. 131/share for other assets to arrive at a TP of Rs Maintain Buy KECI should register strong order inflow growth (17% CAGR) driven by increased traction from international transmission orders (EPC orders from Brazil for SAE towers), ordering from substation and railway segments. Turnaround in SAE Towers should lead to higher margins. Assign 12x FY18E multiple to arrive at a TP of Rs. 15. Maintain Buy KPP should register healthy growth (13% yoy growth) driven by healthy order inflow in FY16E and a low base. EBITDA margin (standalone) should sustain at ~1.7% as the margin in infrastructure segment improves. Improvement in operational performance in JMC projects and sale of real estate projects in Thane and Indore should lead to improved overall performance. Assign 12x FY18E earnings multiple to arrive at a TP of Rs Maintain Buy Date Mar 22, 216 Market data BSE SENSEX Nifty 774 Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m Sensex 7% -2% -11% BSE CG Index 7% -1% -25% KECI 12% -25% 5% KPP 14% -23% -1% TEEC 9% -8% 22% BSE CG Index vs Sensex - Relative performance 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% -25% -3% -35% -4% CG Index Sensex VIJAYARAGHAVAN SWAMINATHAN raghavan@sparkcapital.in RAVI SWAMINATHAN ravi@sparkcapital.in Find Spark Research on Bloomberg (SPAK <go>), Thomson First Call, Reuters Knowledge and Factset Page 1

2 PGCIL ordering to be on par with last year; Transmission line spend witnesses a decline PGCIL ordering in FY16 is broadly on par with FY15 spend Transformers and substation continue to constitute bulk of the orders PGCIL - Overall Ordering (Rs. bn) ex- HVDC PGCIL -FY16* Order Break up - Rs. 155bn Transformer Insulator 5% 1% reactor 5% Conductor 12% Transmission line 3% 5 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 (Till Mid- March) Overall Ordering (Rs. bn) ex- HVDC Others 21% Substation 26% Source: PGCIL, Spark Capital Research Transmission line orders have been lower than last year Transmission Line Orders (Rs. bn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 (Till Mid- March) Transmission Line Orders (Rs. bn) Source: PGCIL, Spark Capital Research; * - till Mid-March Average number of bidders for TLT orders remain low relative to historical level TLT - Average. of bidders FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 (Till Mid-March) Average. of bidders Source: PGCIL, Spark Capital Research Source: PGCIL, Spark Capital Research Page 2

3 KECI, KPP wins sizeable orders from PGCIL, SEBs KECI has won a sizeable portion of the PGCIL TLT orders PGCIL - FY16 TLT orders - Market Share (%) - Rs.46bn Tata Projects 3% Skipper 6% KPP 13% EMC 14% Source: PGCIL, Spark Capital Research Others 19% KEC 27% L&T 18% In the 13 th plan sizeable portion of the transmission spend should come from the SEBs 13th Plan Transmission Spend (Rs. tn) SEBs 1.6 PGCIL 1 KPP has won sizeable SEB orders Date State Order Winner Jun-15 Karnataka Transmission line and Substation Source: KECI, KPP exchange filings, Spark Capital Research Value (Rs. Mn) KECI 86 Oct-15 Telengana 4kV Transmission Line KECI NA Mar-16 West Bengal Transmission line KECI 83 Dec-15 Tamil Nadu Transmission line KPP 77 Aug-15 Karnataka Transmission line KPP 342 Overall PGCIL ordering in FY16 (till mid-march) has been at a similar runrate as FY15. Ordering for substations has continued to remain high at ~Rs. 4bn worth of orders. Orders in the transmission line towers (TLT) segment witnessed a decline of 4% y-o-y which, we believe is due to the shift in focus of PGCIL towards execution of existing projects already awarded vis-avis award of new orders. Order inflow momentum in TLT segment should pick up from FY17E onwards given ~Rs. 4bn worth of orders are in pipeline. Competitive intensity in TLT ordering has remained low at a historical level due to the stringent pre-qualification norms insisted by PGCIL.We believe the elimination of fringe players in the TLT market has improved the margin profile of orders in the segment. KECI (~27% market share) and KPP (13% market share) have continued to win sizeable portion of the TLT orders. KPP has secured sizeable contracts from SEBs also. We believe KECI and KPP would benefit from any pick up in TLT ordering from both PGCIL and SEBs from FY17E Source: Ministry of Power, Spark Capital Research Page 3

4 International transmission spend likely to be robust KECI and KPP have >5% of their TLT order book in overseas markets Transmission Line Towers (TLT) Order book (Rs. bn) Region KEC KPP India Africa MENA CIS SAARC Americas Total Source: KECI and KPP Q3FY15 investor presentation, Spark Capital Research African countries Commentary on T&D spend- Robust outlook Country Ghana Nigeria s South Africa Kenya Ethiopia Commentary Requires USD4bn in investment over the next 1 years in generation, transmission & distribution; power demand growing at 12% pa Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has revealed plans to stimulate its operations with USD8bn in next few years South Africa's electricity transmission grid plans investment of USD15bn by 222 Plans to spend USD1bn over the next four years in its national grid Ethiopia plans to invest USD3 to 5bn in transmission and distribution infrastructure in the next few years. Source: Online report and articles, Spark Capital Research MENA region spend should remain firm inspite of fall in crude prices Region MENA region Transmission and distribution spend ( ) Generation (USD bn) Source: MEED, Spark Capital Research Transmission Distribution (USD bn) Transmission + Distribution (USD bn) Total (Generation + Transmission + Distribution (USD bn) rth Africa Palestine, Lebanon, Syria,etc GCC Rest of Arab world Iran MENA Total Ordering activity in the MENA region is likely to remain high inspite of the recent fall in crude oil prices. The governments have continued to focus on basis infrastructure spend which includes transmission related expenditure. About ~USD 5bn worth of transmission spend is expected over the next 5 years. Already ~8bn worth of expenditure was incurred in 215 in this region Similarly, key African countries are also having sizeable plans to increase their spend on transmission and distribution over the next 4-5 years. About ~USD 25-3bn is expected to be spent by the top five countries in this region. Both, KECI and KPP have sizable presence in Africa. For KECI, ordering opportunity is expanding in the Latin American countries. It has started to secure EPC orders in Brazil (so far they have been executing only tower supply contracts). EPC contracts are thrice the size of pure supply contracts. Sizeable opportunity in the international markets should sustain growth in international segment and mitigate geographical concentration risks for both KECI and KPP Page 4

5 Expanding substation market to accommodate increased competition Substation ordering has remained firm in FY Substation order value (Rs. bn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Substation order value (Rs. bn) 44 4 GIS continues to command high share in overall ordering 35 GIS substation orders (Rs. bn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 GIS substation orders Source: PGCIL, Spark Capital Research TEEC and Alstom have done well in AIS; Rongxin (with TEEC) has won the STATCOM order s Source: PGCIL, Spark Capital Research Ordering activity in the substation market has remained strong from PGCIL. ~Rs. 4bn worth of orders have been tendered out of which Rs. 21bn is for Gas Insulated Substation (GIS) Chinese players have continued to dominate the GIS and Extra high voltage (EHV) market. Among air insulated substation (AIS) orders, TEEC and Alstom have secured sizeable orders. STATCOM order has been secured by Rongxin (in a tie-up with TEEC). While we acknowledge the increased competition in the substation market Hyosung setting up manufacturing facility in India, TLT players foraying into substation EPC and domestic MNC players getting aggressive - we believe an expanding market should provide comfortable opportunity for TEEC. Source: PGCIL, Spark Capital Research Page 5

6 KECI Bid pipeline strong, turnaround in SAE, new segments to improve margins KECI has a strong bid pipeline should lead to strong order inflow over the next 1-2 years KEC - Bid Pipeline - Rs. 2bn SEB 1% Railways 13% Middle East 41% KEC International Order Inflow (Rs. bn) % 15% 1% 5% % PGCIL 18% Others International 18% FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E KEC Intl Order inflow (Rs. bn) YoY Growth (%) -5% Source: Spark Capital Research Turnaround in SAE Towers should lead to margin improvement SAE Towers (Rs.mn) s FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E Revenue 9,13 1,32 8,63 8,3 8,3 PBT 1,325 1, PAT Source: Company, Spark Capital Research To Breakeven at PBT level Source: Company, Spark Capital Research Order inflow momentum for KECI should sustain given the strong bid pipeline across geographies, verticals and foray into EPC contracts in Brazil (through SAE Towers). We expect order inflow to grow by 17% CAGR in FY16E-FY18E KECI margins in the new segments (substation, railways) have improved as a few low margin orders are completed. We expect EBITDA margin should sustain at higher levels driven by turnaround in SAE Towers operations (especially Mexico) and improved margin in the new segments (substations, railways) KECI has reduced its interest cost from 3.7% of FY15 sales to ~3.5% in 9MFY16 through monetization of assets (land and telecom assets). Interest cost should decrease further to ~3% of FY17E revenue on the back of improved credit rating (improved to A1+ from A1 in v 15) and better mix of relatively low cost debt vs. high interest cost bearing acceptances Page 6

7 KPP Strong order inflow momentum to lead to growth recovery KPP has registered strong order inflow in FY16E driven by large orders from SEBs KPP - Order Inflow (Rs. bn) KPP - Domestic TLT order book (Rs. bn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E. 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 Domestic Source: Company, Spark Capital Research International Source: Company, Spark Capital Research PGCIL SEB Private KPP - SoTP Valuation Standalone Business FY18E EPS (Rs.) 16.5 Multiple 12 Standalone Business value per share (Rs.) 198 JMC Projects FY18E EPS (Rs.) 24. Multiple 1 JMC value per share (Rs.) 41 Holding company discount (%) 4% JMC value per share (Rs.) post discount 25 Other assets KPP transmission BOT investment (Rs. Mn) 947 KPP transmission BOT per share multiple 3 JMC road BOT investment (Rs. Mn) 6 JMC road BOT per share multiple 12 Shubham investment (Rs. Mn) 197 Shubham value per multiple 6 Real estate investment (Rs. Mn) 3926 Real Estate value per multiple 13 Total Value (Rs.) 257 KPP has registered strong order inflow in FY16E (~Rs. 61bn so far vs. Rs. 31bn in FY15). This has been largely due to two large orders from Tamil Nadu and Karnataka SEBs (~Rs. 11bn worth of orders) and EPC contracts worth Rs. 8.5bn for the transmission BOT project KPP had secured in West Bengal EBITDA margin for KPP has seen an increase to 1.7% in FY16E (vs. 9.6% in FY15) driven by benefits from fall in commodity prices (for fixed price contracts) and turnaround in the infrastructure segment. We expect margin to stabilize at these levels over the next two years JMC Projects margin should sustain higher at ~8.4% (vs. 6.8% in FY15) as higher share of the order book carry price variation clause. Stabilizing operations in infrastructure segment, staggered sale of real estate investments should be additional triggers. Page 7

8 TEEC Strong order book position to drive growth, further wind asset sale to act as near term trigger Strong EPC segment revenue growth Source: Company, Spark Capital Research FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E TEEC - SoTP Valuation TEEC - EPC Revenue (Rs. Mn) Revenue (Rs. Mn) EPC Business FY18E EPS (Rs.) 28 Multiple 16 EPC Business value per share (Rs.) 454 Wind Power Investment in Simran Wind (Rs. mn) 2,581 Investment in Super Wind (Rs. mn) 2,5 Total Investment (Rs. mn) 5,81 Book value (x) 1. Wind assets value per share (Rs.) 89 BOOT Assets (DCF Valuation) Haryana transmission (Rs. mn) 71 Patran Transmission (Rs. mn) 463 Total Value (Rs. mn) 1,164 BOOT Asset value per share (Rs. ) 2 Cash from wind power sale proceeds (Rs. mn) 1,26 Cash from wind power sale proceeds per share (Rs.) 21 Total Value (Rs.) 585 should be driven by a strong order book (~2x FY16E book-to-bill) Techno Electric Order book (as on 31 st Dec 215) Name of the Client Amount (INR Mn) % Power Grid Corporation Ltd. 8, rth Bihar Power Distribution Co Ltd 2, NTPC Ltd. 2, Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Prasaran Nigam Ltd. 1, Bihar State Electricity Board 1, Patran Transmission Co Ltd APTRANSCO Meja Urja Nigam ltd Others Total 19,5 1. Source: Company, Spark Capital Research TEEC s order inflow in FY16E should be on-par with FY15 (Rs. 14bn) on the back of better ordering traction in Jan-Mar 16. Current order book of ~Rs. 2bn (2x FY16E book-to-bill) provides sufficient revenue visibility and should lead to 17-18% revenue CAGR over the next two years We expect order inflow momentum to continue in the medium term driven by robust substation ordering sustained by PGCIL and increased by SEBs. Further STATCOM orders in the pipeline (2-3 orders expected in the next12 months) should drive order inflow Possible sale of remaining wind power assets (162MW) should reduce the current net debt of Rs. 2bn and lead to net cash scenario. TEEC is expected to invest in substation BOT based projects going forward. We believe TEEC is likely to have a cautious approach towards solar EPC projects given the volatility in this segment Page 8

9 KECI, KPP,TEEC Comparison KECI (Consolidated) KPP (Standalone) TEEC (Standalone) Parameters FY14 FY15 FY16E FY14 FY15 FY16E FY14 FY15 FY16E Revenue RM Employee Cost Other Costs EBITDA Margin Depreciation Other Income Interest Cost TEEC carries better EBITDA margin due to its asset light business model and low cost of operations. KECI and KPP carry relatively lower margin due to higher fixed costs KECI has the highest leverage with a debtto-equity ratio of 1.6x and interest cost of ~3.3% FY16E. Scope for interest cost reduction is high given recent improved credit rating and stable debt position PBT PAT Order Inflow (Rs. Mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E CAGR (FY12- FY16E) CAGR (FY16E- FY18E) TEEC -EPC 2,52 5,659 7,75 14,931 14,931 17,171 19,746 56% 15.% KECI 65,87 78,77 84,82 82,23 83,998 98,454 1,15,45 6% 17.2% KPP Standalone Revenue (Rs. Mn) 35,647 41,234 37,352 3,723 63,649 58,19 64,9 16%.3% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E CAGR (FY12- FY16E) CAGR (FY16E- FY18E) TEEC - EPC 7,41 5,158 5,75 6,681 11,834 14,397 17,212 14% 2.6% KECI 58,147 69,795 79,18 84,678 85,37 95,129 1,6,975 1% 12.% KPP - Standalone 3,327 33,354 4,552 44,223 39,318 44,319 5,775 7% 13.6% Order inflow growth scope is high for both KECI and TEEC given their expanding addressable markets (for KECI Brazil EPC projects and substations). Order inflow for KPP should moderate due to a high base (doubling of order inflow yoy in FY16E) Execution growth should remain healthy for all the players given low base, strong order inflow visibility and stabilization of commodity prices (for KECI and KPP). TEEC should grow by ~2% CAGR given strong order book position Page 9

10 KECI, KPP,TEEC Comparison KECI (Consolidated) KPP (Standalone) TEEC (Standalone) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Cash Conversion Cycle (in days) KPP has the highest cash conversion cycle on the back of higher inventory levels (bulk buying of raw material). KECI and TEEC s cycle has deteriorated over the past few years OCF/EBITDA metrics has been broadly similar to all three players FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY12-FY15 KECI RoE (%) RoCE(%) KECI OCF (Pre-tax) 6, ,34 2,749 1,34 EBITDA 4,713 3,814 4,933 5,118 18,579 OCF/EBITDA 136% 3% 21% 54% 55% KPP Stand alone. RoE (%) RoCE(%) KPP OCF (Pre-tax) 2,192 2,764 1, ,479 EBITDA 3,293 3,222 3,863 4,267 14,644 OCF/EBITDA 67% 86% 42% 21% 51% TEEC - Stand alone. RoE (%) RoCE(%) TEEC OCF (Pre-tax) , ,33 EBITDA 1, ,96 4,299 OCF/EBITDA 58% 56% 128% -8% 54% Parameter KECI KPP TEEC Comments Order Inflow Momentum Order inflow traction for KECI should remain strong given sustained ordering in Middle East, EPC orders in Brazil and Railways, Substation contracts. Ordering for KPP should be flat over the next two years given the high base created in FY16E Execution Pace Execution pace for TEEC should remain strong given the strong order book (book to bill of ~2x) Scope for margin Expansion Working Capital For KECI, Turnaround in SAE Towers, and improving margins in new segments (railways, water,etc) should lead to margin expansion KECI continues to have a relatively lower working capital requirement. KPP has maintained working capital position over the past few years.teec s working capital has deteriorated the most Management Quality We believe TEEC s management has a more prudent and conservative approach in picking orders with strong execution Overall Ranking We prefer TEEC due to its focused, selective approach towards picking orders, asset light operations and a strong balance sheet position (with low leverage ~.2x debt-to-equity) Page 1

11 Financial Summary - KECI Abridged Financial Statements (Consolidated) Key metrics Rs. mn FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Profit & Loss Grow th ratios Revenues 84,678 85,37 95,129 1,6,975 Sales 7.2%.7% 11.5% 12.5% EBITDA 5,118 6,481 7,619 8,774 EBITDA 3.7% 26.6% 17.6% 15.2% Other Income PAT -37.3% 228.6% 43.6% 27.4% Depreciation ,45 Margin ratios EBIT 4,353 5,71 6,787 7,89 EBITDA 6.% 7.6% 8.% 8.2% Interest 3,88 2,783 2,917 2,962 PAT.6% 2.1% 2.6% 3.% PBT 1,264 2,918 3,87 4,928 Performance ratios PAT 533 1,751 2,515 3,23 RoE 4.2% 12.5% 16.1% 18.% Balance Sheet RoCE 5.3% 9.5% 11.7% 12.6% Net Worth 13,298 14,64 16,569 19,25 RoA.7% 2.3% 3.1% 3.6% Deferred Tax Fixed asset turnover (x) Total debt 21,892 2,81 21,844 22,421 Total asset turnover (x) Total Netw orth and liabilities 35,717 35,978 38,94 41,972 Financial stability ratios Gross Fixed assets 13,639 13,839 14,839 15,839 Net Debt to Equity (x) Net fixed assets 8,646 7,933 7,953 7,98 Current ratio (x) CWIP 164 Inventory and debtor days Investments Creditor days Inventories 4,763 5,142 5,734 6,448 Working capital days Sundry Debtors 4,458 41,62 46,392 52,169 Interest cover (x) Cash and bank balances 2,63 2,416 2,826 2,983 Valuation metrics Loans and advances 17,232 16,557 18,442 2,72 Fully Diluted Shares (mn) Current liabilities 41,552 41,614 46,35 52,18 Market cap (Rs.mn) 3,852 3,852 3,852 3,852 Net current assets 22,964 24,13 27,44 3,122 EPS (Rs.) Total assets 35,717 35,978 38,94 41,972 P/E (x) Cash Flow s EV (Rs.mn) 5,681 49,247 49,87 5,29 Cash flow s from Operations 1,529 4,661 3,881 4,29 EV/ EBITDA (x) Cash flow s from Investing 1, , -1, BV/ share (Rs.) Cash flow s from Financing -2,157-4,273-2,47-3,133 Price to BV (x) Page 11

12 Financial Summary - KPP Abridged Financial Statements (Consolidate Key metrics Rs. mn FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Profit & Loss Grow th ratios Revenues 71,982 66,111 74,43 84,1 Sales 1.5% -8.2% 12.% 13.4% EBITDA 7,43 7,33 8,149 9,349 EBITDA 19.4% -.1% 15.9% 14.7% Other Income PAT -6.8% 12.8% 38.9% 26.6% Depreciation 1,683 1,835 2,59 2,287 Margin ratios EBIT 5,611 5,473 6,393 7,396 EBITDA 9.8% 1.6% 11.% 11.1% Interest 3,37 3,5 3,652 3,924 PAT 1.6% 2.% 2.4% 2.7% PBT 2,241 1,973 2,741 3,472 Performance ratios PAT 1,24 1,159 1,628 2,84 RoE 5.3% 5.7% 7.6% 9.% Balance Sheet RoCE 5.4% 6.2% 7.% 7.5% Net Worth 22,166 23,176 24,643 26,52 RoA 1.4% 1.5% 2.% 2.3% Deferred Tax Fixed asset turnover (x) Total debt 34,411 33,266 36,262 39,797 Total asset turnover (x) Total Netw orth and liabilities 58,89 57,953 62,416 67,829 Financial stability ratios Gross Fixed assets 44,54 48,54 51,654 55,254 Net Debt to Equity (x) Net fixed assets 35,816 37,531 39,72 4,385 Current ratio (x) CWIP Inventory and debtor days Investments Creditor days Inventories 12,176 11,23 12,577 14,269 Working capital days Sundry Debtors 22,31 2,829 23,329 26,466 Interest cover (x) Cash and bank balances 1,381 1,584 1,993 2,585 Valuation metrics Loans and advances 17,523 16,964 19,56 21,232 Fully Diluted Shares (mn) Current liabilities 31,422 3,499 33,926 37,421 Market cap (Rs.mn) 3,76 3,76 3,76 3,76 Net current assets 21,958 2,18 23,3 27,13 EPS (Rs.) Total assets 58,89 57,953 62,416 67,829 P/E (x) Cash Flow s EV (Rs.mn) 63,17 61,757 64,345 67,289 Cash flow s from Operations 3,616 8,691 5,7 4,993 EV/ EBITDA (x) Cash flow s from Investing -7,134-3,55-3,6-3,6 BV/ share (Rs.) Cash flow s from Financing 3,452 (4,937) (998) (82) Price to BV (x) Page 12

13 Financial Summary - TEEC Abridged Financial Statements (Consolidated) Key metrics Rs. mn FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Profit & Loss Grow th ratios Revenues 7,939 13,223 15,787 18,62 Sales 12.1% 66.6% 19.4% 17.8% EBITDA 2,82 2,616 2,967 3,366 EBITDA 8.% 25.7% 13.4% 13.5% Other Income PAT 26.9% 35.9% 14.5% 22.4% Depreciation Margin ratios EBIT 1,681 2,438 2,843 3,39 EBITDA 26.2% 19.8% 18.8% 18.1% Interest PAT 13.4% 1.9% 1.5% 1.9% PBT 1,249 1,994 2,471 3,25 Performance ratios PAT 1,64 1,446 1,656 2,27 RoE 12.1% 14.8% 15.% 16.3% Balance Sheet RoCE 1.% 11.5% 12.% 13.5% Net Worth 9,147 1,47 11,677 13,231 RoA 6.5% 7.7% 7.7% 8.8% Deferred Tax Fixed asset turnover (x) Total debt 4,725 4,925 4,225 3,225 Total asset turnover (x) Total Netw orth and liabilities 14,77 15,537 16,17 16,661 Financial stability ratios Gross Fixed assets 13,47 11,74 11,94 12,14 Net Debt to Equity (x) Net fixed assets 1,9 7,896 7,596 7,287 Current ratio (x) CWIP Inventory and debtor days Investments 1,347 3,347 3,347 3,347 Creditor days Inventories Working capital days Sundry Debtors 3,449 7,68 9,83 1,72 Interest cover (x) Cash and bank balances Valuation metrics Loans and advances 1,461 1,67 1,767 1,944 Fully Diluted Shares (mn) Current liabilities 2,738 5,541 6,467 7,462 Market cap (Rs.mn) 28,81 28,81 28,81 28,81 Net current assets 2,483 4,138 5,7 5,87 EPS (Rs.) Total assets 14,77 15,538 16,17 16,661 P/E (x) Cash Flow s EV (Rs.mn) 33,288 33,488 32,67 31,655 Cash flow s from Operations ,776 1,972 EV/ EBITDA (x) Cash flow s from Investing BV/ share (Rs.) Cash flow s from Financing -1, ,458-1,756 Price to BV (x) Page 13

14 Recommendation History Rs. KEC International 3 Year Price and Rating History Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Price Target Report Date Price Target Reco. 8/Feb/ Buy 3/Oct/ Sell 29/Jul/ Sell 8/May/ Sell 6/Feb/ Sell 4/v/ Sell 9/Sep/ Add 4/Aug/ Add 5/May/ Buy 13/Feb/ Buy 28/Oct/ Buy 5/Aug/ Buy Report Date Price Target Reco. 9/May/ Buy 9/Apr/ Buy 31/Jan/ Buy 1/Jan/ Buy Rs. Kalpataru 3 Year Price and Rating History Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Price Target Report Date Price Target Reco. 15/Feb/ Buy 9/v/ Buy 11/Aug/ Buy 2/Jun/ Buy 1/Feb/ Buy 12/v/ Buy 9/Sep/ Buy 5/Aug/ Buy 4/Jun/ Buy 3/Feb/ Buy 5/v/ Buy 3/Jul/ Buy Report Date Price Target Reco. 2/May/ Buy 9/Apr/ Buy 29/Jan/ Buy Rs. Techno Electric 3 Year Price and Rating History Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Report Date Price Target Reco. 9/Feb/ Buy 13/v/ Buy 12/Aug/ Buy 24/May/ Buy 1/Feb/ Buy 12/v/ Buy 23/Sep/ Buy Price Target Page 14

15 Disclaimer Absolute Rating Interpretation BUY Stock expected to provide positive returns of >15% over a 1-year horizon REDUCE ADD Stock expected to provide positive returns of >5% <15% over a 1-year horizon SELL Stock expected to provide returns of <5% -1% over a 1-year horizon Stock expected to fall >1% over a 1-year horizon Spark Disclaimer Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited (Spark Capital) and its affiliates are engaged in investment banking, investment advisory and institutional equities and infrastructure advisory services. Spark Capital is registered with SEBI as a Stock Broker and Category 1 Merchant Banker. We hereby declare that our activities were neither suspended nor we have defaulted with any stock exchange authority with whom we are registered in the last five years. We have not been debarred from doing business by any Stock Exchange/SEBI or any other authorities, nor has our certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point of time. Spark Capital has a subsidiary Spark Investment Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in the services of providing investment advisory services and is registered with SEBI as Investment Advisor. Spark Capital has also an associate company Spark Infra Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in providing infrastructure advisory services. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. thing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice, and nothing in this document should be construed as an advice to buy or sell or solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. 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