Industry guide: India Fundamental analysis

Transcription

1 Industry guide: India Fundamental analysis March 31, 2017

2 About us Indé Global is a member firm of KNAV International Ltd, an international association of legally independently-owned accounting and consulting firms with offices in Canada, France, India, Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland, UAE, UK and USA. It has been in practice for over 18 years. KNAV partners with multi-national across the globe to offer them a complete suite of services, including location advisoy, business set-up, accounting, assurance, taxation, international transfer pricing, valuations and business advisory services, as also to facilitate seamless business growth through mergers and acquisitions. The art of valuation The ever-evolving "Valuation practice" is subjective like art as it is based on the perspective of the appraiser. However, it has features of science as it is based on logic and rational thinking. Sound reasoning suggests that a rational investor should not pay for an asset more than its worth. Dealing with the uncertainty associated with valuation is a task which Indé Global has mastered over the years. Various macro-economic factors and complexities are dealt with to arrive at a fair estimate of value by focusing on valuation fundamentals. The Indé Global difference We have provided well documented financial analyses and valuation opinions to our clients. Our reports have assisted our clients in providing a range of values or a range of multiples while clinching that important domestic or cross border deal. We have been assisting our clients in setting up their acquisition date balance sheet and measuring the intangibles, goodwill and the deferred taxes as on the acquisition date. This has helped our clients in focusing on the deal and the business side of it and leave the compliance and reporting requirement with us. Regulatory requirements may also demand an appraisal of a business. Business values keep fluctuating; considering an appraisal done a year ago cannot be relied upon today. We provide niche services related to the valuation of businesses and intangibles in compliance with the taxation regulations and for financial reporting purposes catering to the Indian and international landscape. The industry guide database We at Indé Global are keen to provide key insights of industry sectors in India. The inadequacy of sufficient and reliable industry data sources has encouraged us at Indé Global to compile industry-wise data. Through our efforts, we aim to overcome this deficit of reliable data. Data has been sourced from Standard & Poor s research company Capital IQ. Capital IQ is a technology and financial services company providing research and analysis on companies and overall market awareness. These data points consist of financial news, market and sector-specific insights and company performance. We have analyzed the top 500 (by market capitalization as of March 31, 2017) listed companies in India and presented approximately 21 key metrics. We have tried to ensure transparency in the Industry guide. In order to facilitate consistency and reliability of data, outliers and normalization adjustments have been carried out to prevent unwarranted skewness and eliminate anomalies in the data set. We have provided a detailed explanation of the basis of computation of the metrics. Valuation experts can use this guide as a reference to corroborate their appraisals and provide a useful reality check on values. Also, business owners will get an estimate of their entity s net worth. Based on the competitors, one may gauge their relative performance. Ultimately, judgement will be the deciding factor but it can serve as a benchmark for a range of possible values. The basis of computation of ratios and their relevant interpretation has been discussed. The ratios will help understand industry-specific trends and margins. The financial and operational measures considered are widely used to understand the business. We hope this database will facilitate the users in their valuation engagements. Our professionals at Indé Global encourage you to share your thoughts and valuable insights with us!

3 Contents Analyses of ratios and multiples. Introduction to ratios What is an outlier? Interpretation of ratios Return on equity Return on assets Return on capital Debt/equity Debt/Total capital Days of sales outstanding Days of inventory on hand Days of payables outstanding Growth ratios 3 year revenue CAGR 3 year EBITDA CAGR Introduction to valuation multiples Equity value multiples Price/sales Price/earnings Market/book Enterprise value multiples EV/sales EV/EBITDA Gross margin EBITDA margin Net profit margin Current ratio Quick ratio Beta 1-year beta 2-year beta 5-year beta Industry classification. What is industry classification? Purpose of industry classification Basis for industry classification Industry guide. Our team.

4 Analyses of ratios and multiples Introduction to ratios A ratio is a statement of how two numbers compare. Ratios are analyzed based on the financial statements i.e. balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement. Ratio analyses is used to evaluate various aspects of an entity s operating and financial performance such as its efficiency, liquidity, profitability and solvency. Outliers and normalization adjustements Companies with abnormal metrics which distort the statistical measures reported have been considered as outliers. This classification has been based on an inquiry into the reasons for the anomalies. Companies considered as outliers have been entirely disregarded in the computation of the industry metrics. Moreover, normalization adjustments have also been made by elimination of any metric which did not fall within an acceptable range. Determination of outliers and normalization adjustments have been based on our judgement and involve no bias. The ratios have been compiled for the year ended March 31, Interpretation of ratios Return on equity (ROE) Return on equity measures an entity s profitability by revealing how much profit a company generates with the amount invested by shareholders. The return on equity is calculated as net income available to common equity divided by average book value of common equity for the same period. Return on equity = Net income available to common equity Average common equity Return on assets (ROA) Return on assets gives an idea as to how efficient management is at using its assets to generate earnings. The return on assets is calculated as EBIT effected for tax divided by average total assets for the same period. Return on assets = EBIT*(1-tax rate) Average total assets Return on capital (ROC) Return on capital measures an entity's profitability with the capital employed. The return on capital is calculated as EBIT effected for tax for the period divided by average total capital. Total capital is the sum of common equity, preferred stock, debt and minority interest. Return on capital = EBIT*(1-tax rate) Average total capital

5 Debt/equity The Debt/equity ratio indicates how much debt a company is using to finance its assets relative to the amount of value represented in shareholders equity. Debt to equity ratio is a debt ratio used to measure a company's financial leverage, calculated by dividing a company s total debt by its market capitalization. Debt/equity = Total debt Market capitalization Debt/Total capital The Debt/total capital of a firm is a measure of its financial leverage and represents the proportion of debt in the firm's capital structure. It is computed by dividing company s total debt by total capital. Total capital is represented by market value of invested capital which is the sum of market capitalization, preferred stock, debt and minority interest. Debt/Total capital = Total debt Total capital Days of sales outstanding The accounts receivables turnover ratio is an activity ratio quantifying a firm's effectiveness in extending credit and in collecting debts. It is a measure of the average number of days that it takes a company to collect payment after a sale has been made. It is calculated as average receivables divided by total revenue for the year multiplied by 365. Days of sales outstanding = Average receivables *365 Total revenue Days of inventory on hand The days of inventory on hand is a financial measure of a company's performance that gives an idea of how long it takes the firm to turn its inventory into sales. It is calculated as average inventory divided by total cost of goods sold for the Days of inventory on hand= Average inventory *365 Total cost of goods sold Days of payables outstanding The days of payables outstanding is a company's average payable period that measures how long it takes the firm to pay its invoices from trade creditors, such as suppliers. It is calculated as average payables divided by total cost of good sold (adjusted for changes in inventory) for the year multiplied by 365 Days of payables outstanding = Average payables *365 Total cost of goods sold (adjusted for changes in inventory) Growth ratios The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is the mean annual growth rate of an investment over a specified period of time longer than one year. It is calculated by dividing the investment value at the end by the beginning investment value, raising the result to the power of one divided by the period length. Subsequently one is subtracted to arrive at We have presented the 3 year revenue and EBITDA CAGR in our analyses.

6 Introduction to valuation multiples One of the oldest methods of analysis is through the use of multiples. A valuation multiple is simply an expression of market value of an asset relative to a key statistic that is assumed to relate to that value. Equity value multiples Equity value multiples are used to arrive at an equity valuation for an entity after factoring leverage. A key assumption of any fundamental value technique is that the value of the security is driven by the fundamentals of the entity s Price/sales The price to sales is a valuation ratio that compares a company s stock price to its revenues. It can be calculated either by dividing the company s market capitalization by its total sales over a 12-month period, or on a per-share basis by dividing the stock price by sales per share for a 12-month period. In our database we have calculated it by dividing the market capitalization by total revenue. Price/sales = Market capitalization Total revenue Price/earnings The price to earnings ratio is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its pershare earnings. The ratio is calculated by dividing the current stock price by earning per share. Price/earnings = Price per share Earnings per share Market/book The market to book ratio is used to compare a stock's market value to its book value. It is calculated by dividing the current closing price of the stock by the book value per share. Market/book = Price per share Book value per share

7 Enterprise value multiples An enterprise multiple is a ratio used to determine the value of a company. Some analysts prefer enterprise value multiples over equity value multiples as the former allows for direct comparison across firms, regardless of capital structure. The enterprise multiple looks at an entity as a potential acquirer would, taking into account the company's debt and not just the equity component as we observed while analyzing the equity multiples. EV/sales EV/sales gives investors a quantifiable metric of how much it costs to purchase the company's sales. This measure is an expansion of the price-to-sales (P/S) valuation, which uses market capitalization instead of enterprise value. It is calculated by dividing enterprise value by total revenue for the financial year. EV/sales = Total enterprise value Total revenue EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA equals a company's enterprise value divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the financial year. It is a measure of the cost of a stock which is more frequently valid for comparisons across companies than the price to earnings ratio. EV/EBITDA = Total enterprise value EBITDA A profitability ratio measures a company's performance. They highlight how effectively the profitability of a company is being managed with insights into the financial health and performance of the entity and provides a basis of comparison against other similarly-situated companies. Gross margin The gross margin ratio is also known as the gross profit margin or the gross profit percentage. The gross margin ratio is computed by dividing the company's gross profit by its total revenue. Gross margin = Gross profit Total revenue EBITDA margin EBITDA margin is a measurement of an entity s operating profitability as a percentage of its total revenue. It is equal to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) divided by total revenue. EBITDA provides an investor with a clear view of a company's operating profitability and cash flow. EBITDA margin = EBITDA Total revenue Net profit margin Net profit margin is calculated as net income divided by revenue, or net profits divided by sales. Net profit may be determined by deducting a company s expenses, including operating, financial costs and tax costs from its total revenue. Profit margins are expressed as a percentage to sales. Net profit = Net income Total revenue

8 Current ratio The current ratio is a liquidity ratio that measures a company's ability to pay short-term obligations. To gauge this ability, the current ratio considers the current total assets of a company (both liquid and illiquid) relative to that company's current total liabilities. Current ratio = Total current assets Total current liabilities Quick ratio The quick ratio is an indicator of a company s short-term liquidity. The quick ratio measures a company s ability to meet its short-term obligations with its most liquid assets. For this reason, the ratio includes only cash, accounts receivable and current investments from current assets. Quick ratio = Cash + AR + current investment Total current liabilities

9 Beta Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole. Beta is used in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to calculate the expected return of an asset. The Nifty index is considered as a benchmark for the purpose of computing beta. The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark broad based stock market index for the Indian equity market. It represents the weighted average of 50 Indian company stocks in 12 sectors and is a free float market 1-year beta It is the slope of the daily regression of change in stock relative to Nifty index for the past 1 year. 2-year beta It is the slope of the daily regression of change in stock relative to Nifty index for the past 2 years. 5-year beta It is the slope of the daily regression of change in stock relative to Nifty index for the past 5 years.

10 What is industry classification? Industry classification helps in categorizing companies into industrial groupings based on similar production processes, products, or nature of business. Purpose of industry classification The main purpose of industry classification is to provide a set of activity categories that can be utilized for the collection and reporting of statistics on basis of their activities. Our team has compiled data for 21 industries considering the varied products/services offered by each industry. We believe that the users of the data should get accurate and detailed material for valuations and related purposes. When we think of the market in terms of sectors it can be advantageous for investors, however, sorting stocks into separate sectors and industries may not be clear cut. This may be due in part to companies belonging to different industries, depending on the criteria used. Basis of classification Our classification of industries has been based on S&P's Capital IQ industry classification. Capital IQ classifies industries upto 9 levels. Based on the availability of data and the nature of operations of the companies considered, our ratio analyses are presented for industries as per level 2 classification of the Industry classification tree.

11 Automobiles and components 26 Establishments engaged in manufacturing motor vehicles, passenger car bodies, motor vehicle parts and accessories. Average 21% 9% 14% 22% 13% Median 20% 8% 12% 11% 10% 25th percentile 16% 7% 10% 1% 1% 75th percentile 25% 11% 15% 22% 17% Average % 17% Median % 15% 25th percentile % 5% 75th percentile % 23% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 45% 16% 9% Median 43% 15% 7% th percentile 37% 11% 5% th percentile 55% 19% 11% Average Median th percentile th percentile

12 Banks 43 Number of outliers: 1 Establishments include commercial banks and trust companies engaged in the business of accepting deposits from the public. Hisorical CAGR% (3 Yr) Return on equity Return on assets Earning asset yield Net interest income Earnings* growth Average 7% 8% 7% 8% 10% Median 8% 5% 8% 5% 12% 25th percentile 2% 0% 7% 0% -9% 75th percentile 14% 15% 9% 15% 22% NPA/NPL ratios Tier 1 capital Tier 2 capital Gross loans/deposits NPA/total assets NPL/total loans Average 11% 2% 73% 4% 8% Median 11% 2% 70% 4% 6% 25th percentile 9% 1% 64% 1% 2% 75th percentile 13% 3% 79% 8% 13% Profitability Market cap/sales Market cap/ebt Market/book Net interest EBT Average % -27% Median % 26% 25th percentile % 2% 75th percentile % 42% Average Median th percentile th percentile *Earnings from continuing operations

13 Capital goods 74 Number of outliers: 5 Establishments engaged in manufacturing and distribution of defense equipment, building equipment, construction, electrical components and electrical components and heavy machinery. Average 13% 6% 10% 31% 15% Median 14% 5% 10% 3% 3% 25th percentile 7% 4% 5% 0% 0% 75th percentile 20% 9% 14% 39% 28% Average % 13% Median % 11% 25th percentile % 0% 75th percentile % 22% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 38% 14% 6% Median 36% 12% 6% th percentile 30% 9% 3% th percentile 46% 17% 10% Average Median th percentile th percentile

14 Consumer durables and 30 apparel Establishments engaged in consumer electronics, homebuilding, household appliances, leisure products, apparels and accessories. Average 13% 9% 12% 44% 21% Median 18% 8% 10% 14% 13% 25th percentile 10% 4% 6% 0% 1% 75th percentile 23% 12% 17% 38% 32% Average % 12% Median % 12% 25th percentile % 0% 75th percentile % 19% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 41% 14% 6% Median 42% 12% 7% th percentile 32% 9% 2% th percentile 51% 18% 9% Average Median th percentile th percentile

15 Consumer services 11 Establishmennts engaged in services including education, hotels, restaurants, casinos, gaming, leisure and other specialized services. Average 6% 3% 5% 24% 14% Median 4% 4% 6% 6% 6% 25th percentile 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 75th percentile 8% 5% 7% 24% 19% Average % 4% Median % 1% 25th percentile % -2% 75th percentile % 2% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 49% 15% 5% Median 53% 13% 3% th percentile 42% 7% 1% th percentile 57% 20% 7% Average Median th percentile th percentile

16 Diversified financial services 34 Date: March 31,2017 Establishments engaged in extending credit in the form of loans, but not engaged in deposit banking. These establishments also provides services such as wealth management, portfolio management and other related services. Hisorical CAGR% (3 Yr) Return on equity Return on assets Return on CE* Revenue Earnings* growth Average 12% 3% 12% 19% 18% Median 12% 3% 13% 15% 15% 25th percentile 8% 1% 7% 6% 2% 75th percentile 17% 4% 17% 30% 37% Market cap/sales Market cap/ebt Market/book Current ratio Quick ratio Average Median th percentile th percentile Profitability Gross margin Earnings* margin Average % 37% Median % 30% 25th percentile % 17% 75th percentile % 38% *Earnings from continuing operations

17 Energy 14 Establishments primarily engaged in drilling oil and gas wells; oil and gas field exploration services; oil and gas field services. Average 23% 6% 10% 42% 25% Median 22% 7% 11% 38% 27% 25th percentile 11% 4% 5% 7% 7% 75th percentile 31% 8% 14% 53% 35% Average % 12% Median % 9% 25th percentile % -8% 75th percentile % 20% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 30% 19% 11% Median 15% 12% 8% th percentile 12% 7% 5% th percentile 37% 29% 17% Average Median th percentile th percentile

18 Food, beverage 24 and tobacco Establishments engaged in production of soft drinks, agricultural products, packaged foods and tobacco including breweries. Average 22% 11% 15% 14% 10% Median 22% 10% 13% 5% 5% 25th percentile 10% 6% 9% 0% 0% 75th percentile 33% 15% 19% 14% 12% Average % 17% Median % 14% 25th percentile % 4% 75th percentile % 28% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 41% 17% 10% Median 40% 19% 9% th percentile 31% 11% 6% th percentile 51% 21% 13% Average Median th percentile th percentile

19 Healthcare equipment 7 and services Establishments engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of basic medical equipment and supplies. Also estabishments engaged in developing software and technology for hospitals, hospital equipment, diagnostic centers, etc. Average 12% 8% 10% 10% 8% Median 9% 6% 9% 4% 4% 25th percentile 8% 2% 3% 2% 2% 75th percentile 20% 13% 15% 18% 15% Average % 18% Median % 19% 25th percentile % 3% 75th percentile % 22% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 59% 17% 9% Median 58% 12% 10% th percentile 56% 9% 3% th percentile 63% 23% 14% Average Median th percentile th percentile

20 Household and personal 10 products Establishments include a diverse group of manufacturers of consumer goods,used in and around the home, offer their wares to various to wholesalers and retailers. Also establsihments egaged in manufacture of household durables including appliances, home tographic equipment, jewellery, etc. Average 37% 19% 29% 2% 2% Median 36% 20% 31% 0% 0% 25th percentile 28% 12% 15% 0% 0% 75th percentile 44% 25% 36% 2% 2% Average % 20% Median % 17% 25th percentile % 12% 75th percentile % 18% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 56% 23% 16% Median 54% 22% 14% th percentile 51% 20% 14% th percentile 62% 28% 16% Average Median th percentile th percentile

21 Insurance 3 Establishments include carriers of insurance of all types, including reinsurance. Average 21% 2% 15% 25% 14% Median 18% 1% 16% 0% 0% 25th percentile 17% 1% 12% 0% 0% 75th percentile 23% 3% 18% 38% 20% Average % 14% Median % 13% 25th percentile % 9% 75th percentile % 19% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 24% 15% 7% Median 15% 5% 4% th percentile 14% 5% 4% th percentile 31% 20% 9% Average Median th percentile th percentile

22 Materials 86 Establishments engaged in production of chemicals, fertilizers, pesticides, industrial gases, construction materials, containers, packaging, metals, wood and related products. These establishments also extract metals and minerals. Average 16% 8% 11% 46% 22% Median 14% 7% 8% 21% 18% 25th percentile 7% 4% 5% 2% 2% 75th percentile 23% 10% 14% 50% 33% Average % 8% Median % 9% 25th percentile % 0% 75th percentile % 17% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 51% 18% 9% Median 47% 17% 8% th percentile 37% 12% 4% th percentile 63% 22% 13% Average Median th percentile th percentile

23 Media 15 Establishments in this industry produce, process, or distribute information and entertainment content for books and newspapers, motion pictures and music recordings and radio and tv programming as well as for the internet and software. Average 10% 7% 9% 18% 13% Median 14% 5% 8% 10% 9% 25th percentile 3% 2% 2% 4% 4% 75th percentile 26% 12% 15% 31% 21% Average % 5% Median % 8% 25th percentile % 5% 75th percentile % 16% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 61% 21% 8% Median 61% 23% 6% th percentile 51% 14% 2% th percentile 67% 28% 16% Average Median th percentile th percentile

24 Pharmaceuticals, biotech 35 and life services Number of outliers: 1 Establishments primarily engaged in medicinal chemicals and botanical products; pharmaceutical preparations; in vitro and in vivo diagnostic substances; biological products, except diagnostic substances. Average 18% 9% 12% 12% 9% Median 17% 8% 10% 8% 8% 25th percentile 11% 5% 7% 0% 0% 75th percentile 22% 10% 12% 12% 11% Average % 13% Median % 11% 25th percentile % 5% 75th percentile % 20% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 63% 21% 13% Median 63% 20% 13% th percentile 56% 18% 9% th percentile 70% 25% 17% Average Median th percentile th percentile

25 Real estate 13 Establishments that own and develop commercial real estate properties. Average 9% 5% 6% 66% 33% Median 8% 3% 5% 63% 37% 25th percentile 6% 2% 4% 41% 29% 75th percentile 10% 5% 7% 75% 43% Average % 6% Median % 7% 25th percentile % 4% 75th percentile % 8% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 52% 37% 17% Median 45% 29% 13% th percentile 38% 19% 8% th percentile 61% 47% 23% Average Median th percentile th percentile

26 Retailing 6 Establishments engaged in distribution and retailing of general merchandise products including apparel, automotives, electronics, home furnishing etc. Average 6% 4% 6% 12% 10% Median 5% 3% 4% 10% 9% 25th percentile 3% 3% 3% 6% 5% 75th percentile 13% 5% 9% 12% 11% Average % 22% Median % 9% 25th percentile % 6% 75th percentile % 25% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 31% 7% 4% Median 32% 8% 3% th percentile 26% 4% 1% th percentile 35% 10% 5% Average Median th percentile th percentile

27 Software and services 22 Establishments includes application, systems, and home entertainment software companies engaged in developing and producing software designed for specialized applications for the business or consumer market. Average 23% 94% 19% 3% 3% Median 18% 11% 14% 0% 0% 25th percentile 16% 8% 10% 0% 0% 75th percentile 30% 21% 25% 3% 3% Average % 6% Median % 4% 25th percentile % 1% 75th percentile % 8% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 37% 20% 14% Median 35% 17% 13% th percentile 30% 15% 10% th percentile 39% 24% 18% Average Median th percentile th percentile

28 Technology hardware and 4 equipment Establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing of cellular phones, personal computers, servers, electronic computer and peripherals (including data storage components, motherboards, audio and video cards, monitors, keyboards, printers and other peripherals). Average 21% 6% 10% 21% 16% Median 20% 7% 12% 26% 20% 25th percentile 15% 4% 7% 17% 13% 75th percentile 26% 10% 14% 31% 22% Average % 14% Median % 14% 25th percentile % 10% 75th percentile % 19% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 32% 8% 9% Median 32% 7% 8% th percentile 15% 1% 6% th percentile 49% 15% 12% Average Median th percentile th percentile

29 Telecommunication 5 services Establishments engaged in mobile services, telemedia services and broadband services. Average 4% 3% 4% 75% 44% Median 2% 2% 4% 61% 42% 25th percentile -3% 2% 2% 34% 31% 75th percentile 8% 5% 6% 102% 64% Average % -1% Median % 2% 25th percentile % -12% 75th percentile % 8% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 41% 30% 10% Median 39% 29% 4% th percentile 33% 25% -1% th percentile 53% 37% 7% Average Median th percentile th percentile

30 Transportation services 14 Companies providing primarily goods and passenger transportation through air, rail, road and maritime. Includes owners and operators of airports, roads, tunnels, railtracks, marine ports and also vehicle rental and taxi companies Average 10% 6% 12% 51% 26% Median 10% 6% 8% 14% 14% 25th percentile 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 75th percentile 13% 8% 11% 32% 51% Average % 15% Median % 7% 25th percentile % 1% 75th percentile % 22% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 39% 28% 11% Median 36% 22% 6% th percentile 25% 12% 4% th percentile 52% 39% 18% Average Median th percentile th percentile

31 Utilities 22 Establishments engaged in distribution of utilities including electricity, gas and water. Average 10% 6% 7% 138% 41% Median 11% 5% 6% 81% 45% 25th percentile 6% 4% 4% 17% 14% 75th percentile 14% 6% 8% 185% 63% Average % 11% Median % 8% 25th percentile % 1% 75th percentile % 21% Average Median th percentile th percentile Average 52% 37% 13% Median 45% 26% 7% th percentile 33% 20% 4% th percentile 71% 44% 18% Average Median th percentile th percentile