GORDON R. TRAPNELL President Actuarial Research Corporation

Transcription

1 GORDON R. TRAPNELL President Actuarial Research Corporation Education B.S. - Mathematics, University of Virginia Ph.D. Candidate - Massachusetts Institute of Technology - Fellowship Examinations,. Society of Actuaries Background - - ' " Gordon R. Trapnell is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries, a member of the Academy of Actuaries, a Fellow of the Royal Statistics Society, and an enrolled actuary under ERISA. He is a nationally recognized expert on health insurance. His estimates have been used by the Department of H.E.W. since 1972 as the official H.E.W. estimates of the cost of national health insurance. Mr. Trapnell served as a senior actuary on the staff of the Office of the Actuary in the Social Security Administration from January 1965 to January In this capacity, he was responsible for preparing long-range cost estimates for the Social Security programs and for estimating the effect of proposed legislative changes to these programs. He assisted senior officials of the Social Security Administration and H.E.W. in for mulating policy with respect to social insurance programs, by providing estimates as to the cost implications of alternative decisions. He simi larly assisted the responsible Congressional staffs in proposing and drafting new legislation. From June 1971 to January 1974, Mr. Trapnell was responsible for all actuarial projections of the Social Security health insurance programs,

2 /. -2- including the long-range projections for hospital insurance, and for the preparation of cost estimates used in considering national health insur ance by both the Administration and the principal Congressional committees. For example, he supplied the cost estimates used in designing the Administration's national health insurance plan and the plan introduced jointly by Senator Kennedy arid Representative Mills in /-,.. < Mr. Trapnell is'currently serving in a consulting capacity to the Office of the Secretary, H.E.W. and the Congressional Budget Office. He is also frequently consulted by a number of Executive department officials and Congressional assistants. From August 1960 to October 1964, Mr. Trapnell was in charge of all actuarial estimates for the group and pension departments of the Life Insurance Company of Virginia in Richmond, Virginia. Mr. Trapnell has served on the education and examination committee of the Society of Actuaries and is currently a member of the Committee on-social Insurance. He has been a frequent speaker and panel participant in meetings of the professional societies of socia-l scientists. He has contributed a number of research studies that have been used by both public and private parties with interests in the health field.

3 GORDON R. TRAPNELL Principal Investigator Education Fellowship Examinations, Society of Actuaries Ph.D. program - Finance, Massachusetts Institute of Technology B.S. - Mathematics, University of Virginia Background.'"'.<' ~ ' < Gordon R. Trapnell is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries, a member of the Academy of Actuaries, a Fellow of the Royal Statistics Society, and an enrolled actuary under ERISA. He is a nationally recognized expert on health insurance. His estimates have been used by the Department of H.E.W. since 1972 as the official H.E.W. estimates of the cost of national health insurance. Mr. Trapnell served as a senior actuary on the staff of the Office of the Actuary in the Social Security Administration from January 1965 to Jan uary In this capacity, he was responsible for preparing long-range cost estimates for the Social Security programs and for estimating the effect of proposed legislative changes to these programs. He also assisted the staff at the Congressional Committees concerned with health insurance in proposing and drafting new legislation. Mr. Trapnell is a nationally recognized expert in the area of estima ting the cost of health care and health insurance programs. He has prepared cost estimates for major new Federal initiatives in health care that have been verified to be reliable by actual experience. For example the actuar ial base that he formulated for physician and other outpatient services

4 used by the elderly led to an accurate projection in 1965 of the cost of Part B of Medicare during the initial period of operation in has prepared many other reliable estimates for new and existing programs. His extensive experience and detailed knowledge of the problems involved in preparing cost estimates have enabled him to contribute substantially to a more objective and more detailed evaluation of health programs. From June 1971 to January 1974, Mr. Trapnell was responsible for all actuarial projections of the Social Security health insurance programs, including the long-range projections for hospital insurance. He He was also responsible for the preparation of the cost estimates used to design and t~ evaluate alternative national health insurance plans, by both the Adminis tration and the principal Congressional committees. For example, he supplied the cost estimates used in designing and evaluating the "National Health Insurance Partnership Act of 1971", the "Mega" proposal in 1972, "Comprehensive Health Insurance Proposal" (CHIP) in 1974, and the plan introduced jointly by Senator Kennedy and Representative Mills in Estimates of the cost of major national health insurance programs developed by Mr. Trapnell were submitted to Congress as the official DHEW estimates in 1974, in "Estimated Health Expenditures Under Selected National Health Insurance Bills, A Report to the Congress". the An improved and more detailed set of estimates for the cost of major national health insurance proposals was published in 1976 through the National Technical Information Service. Mr. Trapnell developed actuarial cost models for long-term care that were utilized by the Congressional Budget Office in analyzing options for

5 a Federal program covering these services. (C.B.O., Budget Issue Paper: Long-term Care for the Elderly and Disabled, Feb An additional C.B.O. paper, Long-term Care, Actuarial Cost Estimates, describing these models, will be published in the near future.) These models represent a unique resource for estimating the cost of long-term care services on an actuarial basis. From August 1960.to.October 1964, Mr. Trapnell<was in charge of all. actuarial estimates for the group and' pension departments of the Life Insurance Company of Virginia in Richmond, Virginia. Mr. Trapnell has served on the education and examination committee of the Society of Actuaries and is currently a member of the Committee on Social Insurance. He has been a frequent speaker and panel participant in meetings of the professional societies of social scientists. He has contributed a number of research studies that have been used by both public and private parties with interests in the health field.

6 "Age Adjustment to Provide for Mortality Improvement Based on the GA51 Male Table Projected by Year of Birth", Transactions Society of Actuaries, Vol. XIV, "The Health Care Coverage and Resources to Purchase Insurance of the Aged in Virginia", Mimeograph, Paper presented to the Virginia Council on Aging, Jan ,, -,--. "Comparison of Assumptions by Private and Public Actuaries Underlying Cost Estimates for Hospital Insurance", discussion of "Amendments to Social Security Act in " by Robert J. Myers, Transactions Society of Actuaries, Vol. XVII, "Discussion of Employee Benefit Plans" Transactions Society of Actuaries, Vol. XIV, 1962, and Vol. XVIII, "Implications of Title XIX of the 1965 Social Security Act for the Private Health Insurance Business", Transactions Society of Actuaries, Vol. XVIII, "Discussion of Individual Life and Health Underwriting", Transactions Society of Actuaries, Vol. XVIII, "Cost estimates for Medicare", Proceedings of the Conference of Actuaries in Public Practice, Oct Health actuarial analysis sections of various Senate Finance Committee and Ways and Means Committee Reports, e.g.: o "Actuarial Cost Estimates for the Old-Age, Survivors, Disability, and Hospital Insurance System as Modified by the Social Security Provisions of Public Law , September 1972." o "Actuarial Cost Estimates for the Old-Age, Survivors, Disability, Hospital, and Supplementary Medical Insurance Systems as Modified by Public Law , March 2, Actuarial Appendices in the issues of "Report of the Board of Trustees of the Supplementary Medical Insurance Program." {4r. Trapnell developed the actuarial methodology used to set the premium rates and project the spending for Part B of Medicare, which are recorded in these documents prepared by Mr. Trapnell for the Trustees of the Social Security Systems.)

7 -2- Actuarial Appendices in the issues of "Report of the Board of Trustees of the Hospital Insurance Program." (Mr. Trapnell developed a new actuarial methodology for estimating the future costs of the Hospital Insurance program. His analysis is recorded in these documents.) "Relationship of the Book Rate of Return on Investment to the-internal Rate of Return on Investment And Implications for Utility Regulation", Staff Paper Number 4, Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration, January _., "Health Services - Public Versus Private Financing", Transactions, Society of Actuaries, Vol. XXIII, Dec "Actuarial Cost Estimates for Medical Services Under Title XVIII of the Social Security Act for Patients Suffering from Chronic Kidney Disease"; (Available from the Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration). "Estimated Cost of Chamber of Commerce Proposal for National Health Insurance" (Published in Congressional Record, April, 1974). "Actuarial Estimate of the Impact of the Economic Stabilization Program on Spending for Health Services in Fiscal Years 1975 and 1976", April (Prepared for Cost of Living Council and used as a basis of the official Administration forecast and legislative recommendations to Congress concerning economic controls.) "Spending in Fiscal Years 1975 and 1976 for Health Services Not Subject to Economic Controls Under the Economic Stabilization Program", Sep "Public Health Care Programs, Description of Feasibility Studies by H.E.W.", Transactions, Society of Actuaries, Vol. XXVI, May "Estimated Health Expenditures under Selected National Health Insurance Bills, A Report to the Congress". (A condensation of this report was submitted by Caspar Weinberger, Secretary of H.E.W, to the Ways and Means Committee in July 1974 and printed in the Congressional Record). "Estimated Premium Rates for Special Health Insurance Policies in the Lilly National Health Insurance Plan", Mimeograph Nov (Prepared for the Eli Lilly, Inc., to use in public presentations of their proposal to Congress and the Administration.) "Actuarial Estimate of Senate 1691 'The Foley Bill' and Its Impact Vis a Vis Present Medicaid Costs Both on an Incurred Basis and Cash Outlay Basis Through Fiscal Year 1978". (Prepared for Joint Special Committee to Study Health Care and Benefits, March 1975 and printed in Hearing Transcripts, March 1975).

8 -3- "Analysis of the State of South Carolina Employee Group Health Insurance Program". (Study for the State of South Carolina Personnel Division, March 1975). "Estimated Cost of Implementing Proposed Regulations Limiting Payment Under Medicaid for Prescriptions to Actual Acquisition Costs and Maximum Allowable Costs", Mimeograph, May (Prepared for Eli Lilly, Inc.). "Analysis of Requirements for a Cost Benefit Structure for the Military Medical System with Initial Focus on Champus", June (Prepared for the Defense Department)r " "Estimated Cost of Implementing the Regulations Limiting Payment Under Federal Health Programs to Maximum Allowable Costs (MAC'S) and Estimated Acquisition Costs (EAC'S)", mimeograph November (Presented to H.E.W. by Eli Lilly, Inc. as evidence that should be considered in drafting final regulations.) "Feasibility and Desirability of Establishing a Nationally-Administered Retirement, Pension, and Health Insurance System for Blind Licensees Under the Randolph-Sheppard Vending Facility Program," November 7, Principal authors: Robert G. Lake, Neal S. Perry, Vincent Scardino, Gordon R, Trapnell, Herbert W. Kimball. (Prepared for submission to Congress by the Department of H.E.W. and printed in Congressional Hearing Transcripts). "On Measuring the Effect of State Reimbursement Policy on Medicaid Spending for Prescription Drugs", in Michell and Link, editors, Impact of Public Policy on Drug Innovation and Pricing; The American University Press, Jan "A Comparison of the Costs of Major National Health Insurance Proposals", January 1976, National Technical: Information Service. "The Impact of National Health Insurance on the Use and Spending for Sight Correction Services", January 1976, Optical Manufacturers Association. "Health Care Costs - Where do we go from here"; mimeograph, paper presented before the American Association of State Compensation Insurance Funds in May, "Impact of National Health Insurance on Vision Care Services 11, Journal of Opticianry May and June, "Demographic and Economic Profile of Ophthalmological Services", paper presented before the Optical Marketing Symposium in September, 1976 (Synopsis printed in Optometric Management, forthcoming), "Reviewing Trends in Contact Lens Marketing"; mimeograph, paper presented before the Contact Lens Association in October, 1976.

9 -4- "The Increasing Cost of Catastrpohic Illness", Paper presented to the American Public Health Association, October, Congressional Budget Office, Budget Issue Paper: Long-term Care Actuarial Cost Estimates, "The Changing Profile of Catastrophic Illness", Health Resources Administration, Health, Education, and Welfare (Forthcoming). "The Cost of NHI: Comparing the AHA and Health Security Plans"; Hospital Progress; February, 1977.

10 CORPORATE BACKGROUND Actuarial Research Corporation (ARC) is an outgrowth of Gordon R. Trapnell Consulting Actuaries (CA). CA was formed in 1974 by Mr. Gordon R. Trapnell, former Director of Health Insurance Studies at the Social Secur ity Administration. These organizations have already established an enviable record in performing health insurance research for governmental and private organizations. Mr. Trapnell, a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries, has received wide recognition for-his- outstanding analyses of national health insurance proposals and programs. CA clients have included the Office of the Secretary of H.E.W., the Health Resources Administration, the Cost of Living Council, the Library *" of Congress, the Congressional Budget Office, the Ways and Means Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives, the Ways and Means Committee of the Massachusetts Senate, the State of South Carolina, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Optical Manufacturers Association, the American Optometric Association, Eli Lilly and Company, ABT Associates, Interstudy, the Rich mond Corporation and Virginia Electric and Power Company. ARC clients have included the Congressional Budget Office, Kappa Inc., Nationwide Insurance Company and a number of other organizations. The scope of activities of ARC has been expanded with the organization of the Operational Systems Division (GSD). Formed in early 1976 by Mr. Kaplan, the new arm of the corporation will concentrate on systems analysis and management consultation. OSD is concentrating on innovative techniques for improving the objectivity and sensitivity of selection processes and evaluations. In addition OSD has developed a unique method for conducting large scale polls on selected issues. Clients to date include the National

11 -2- Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the NALCO Chemical Corporation. OSD also is collaborating with the National Agricultural Aviation Association and shortly will enter into a research contract with the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command.