AXA. Jacques de Vaucleroy. Global Head of AXA Global L&S CEO for Northern, Central and Eastern Europe region Member of the AXA Management Committee
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1 AXA Jacques de Vaucleroy Global Head of AXA Global L&S CEO for Northern, Central and Eastern Europe region Member of the AXA Management Committee October 2, 2014 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014
2 Cautionary note concerning forward-looking statements Certain statements contained herein are forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, statements that are predictions of or indicate future events, trends, plans or objectives. Undue reliance should not be placed on such statements because, by their nature, they are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the section Cautionary statements in page 2 of AXA s Document de Référence for the year ended December 31, 2013, for a description of certain important factors, risks and uncertainties that may affect AXA s business. AXA undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements, whether to reflect new information, future events or circumstances or otherwise. 2 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
3 Today s key messages achievements in line with consistent delivery on Ambition AXA Performing well in a low interest rate environment Focus on G/A Protection & Health business: growing and profitable 3 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
4 achievements in line with consistent delivery on Ambition AXA 4 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
5 Strong growth in earnings Underlying Earnings Adjusted Earnings In Euro billion % 2.8 In Euro billion % 3.1 1H13 1H13 Change is at constant Forex Change is at constant Forex Net income In Euro Underlying Earnings per share % % adjusted for Forex effects In Euro billion % 3.0 1H13 1H13 Change is on a reported basis Change is at constant Forex 5 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
6 Selectivity Reshaping the Life & Savings business and fostering P&C profitability Life & Savings: improvement in the business mix leading to increased margins 21% +8pts NBV margin -1pt +1pt +3pts 34% P&C: improving profitability whilst growing the business All-year Combined ratio 98.6% -3pts 95.8% Business mix Market impact Expenses Other 1 Increasing share of Unit Linked and G/A Protection & Health in APE Current year Combined ratio 103.1% 97.1% 13% 26% 31% 12% 15% 38% 14,691 CAGR 2 +3% 16,820 30% 35% Gross revenues in Euro million G/A Protection & Health Unit Linked G/A Savings Mutual funds & other All notes are on page 22 of this document 6 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
7 Acceleration Double-digit topline and earnings evolution in high growth markets Life & Savings high growth markets Property & Casualty high growth markets In Euro million In Euro million APE NBV Underlying Earnings Revenues Underlying Earnings CAGR +15% CAGR +23% CAGR +26% CAGR +12% CAGR +17% ,417 2, % 16% Contribution to 7% 14% 10% 13% Contribution to 8% 10% Group L&S Group P&C Focus on China L&S ICBC-AXA Life Positive contribution to Underlying Earnings in Revenues Euro 0.9 billion at 1 APE In Euro million 39 1H13 +21% 46 Focus on China P&C AXA-Tian Ping 1 Investing in brand, claims and pricing capabilities leveraging Group know-how 30% of premiums coming from Direct channel in, up from 20% in 2012 Revenues In Euro million 291 1H13 +30% 364 All notes are on page 22 of this document 7 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
8 Efficiency On track to deliver an increased Euro 1.9 billion target In Euro billion Increased cost savings target E cost savings target (in mature Life & Savings and Property & Casualty entities) Further Euro 0.2 billion added to the target, from Life & Savings acquisition costs Sales support productivity improvement Marketing efficiency Initial target June 2011 Updated February 2013 Updated August 2014 Commissions optimization Achievement in Euro 0.2 billion cost savings achieved in Euro 1.3 billion achieved since the beginning of Ambition AXA 8 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
9 Ambition AXA Delivering on financial objectives in In Euro per share Underlying Earnings per share In Euro billion Group operating free cash flows in line with Ambition AXA objectives Ambition AXA CAGR +5% to +10% Ambition AXA cumulative Euro 24 billion 1H11 1H12 1H13 FY11 FY12 Adjusted return on equity 1 Debt gearing 12.4% 13.5% 13.8% 16.5% 16.8% 13-15% 29% 28% 27% 26% 24% 23-25% 1H11 1H12 1H13 Ambition AXA H11 1H12 1H E Target All notes are on page 22 of this document 9 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
10 Generating earnings and dividend growth In Euro per share Delivering on 5-10% Underlying EPS 1 CAGR target FY FY H Sustained growth in dividend In Euro million Guidance of Euro million of Net RCG 1 per year FY11 2 FY12 1H13 In Euro per share TBD Payout ratio of 40-50% of Adjusted Earnings3 40% 49% 40% 40% FY11 3 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY14E All notes are on page 22 of this document 10 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
11 Performing well in a low interest rate environment 11 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
12 Performing well in low interest rate environment (1/3) Well diversified business mix reduces earnings volatility Ca. 70% of Group pre-tax Underlying Earnings 1 coming from Property & Casualty and Protection & Health 2, i.e. businesses less sensitive to financial markets Strong ALM discipline Ca. 1 year Duration gap maintained around one year between assets and liabilities (which are mostly long term in nature) Decreased sensitivities to low interest rate environment Ca. Euro -100 million Estimated impact on Underlying Earnings 3 should interest rates be 100bps lower for 1 year Note: Group Embedded Value sensitivity to a -100bps parallel shift in risk-free rates: -5% All notes are on page 22 of this document 12 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
13 Performing well in low interest rate environment (2/3) ALM discipline leading to resilient asset yields and investment margin Large book of assets and long duration leading to slow yield dilution As of June 30, 2014 L&S 7.2 years L&S 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% ca. 500 billion G/A 1 invested assets Long fixed income asset duration 4.0% FY11 4.0% FY12 3.9% 3.9% * 4.2% P&C 5.0 years P&C FY11 FY12 * Resilient investment margin in L&S General Account 4% 1% 4.0% 2.3% 170bps 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 150bps 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% FY11 FY12 150bps * FY14E FY22E Asset yield 2 Average guaranteed rate Investment margin 76bps 73bps 78bps 80bps 79bps FY11 FY12 * Guidance: 70-80bps * Annualized All notes are on page 22 of this document 13 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
14 Performing well in low interest rate environment (3/3) Protection & Health and P&C contribute c. 70% to Group pre-tax underlying earnings Increasing contribution from P&H and growing top line in P&C Share of Protection & Health in Total L&S APE In Euro million P&C Revenues 31% 38% CAGR +3% 14,691 15,350 16,173 16,497 16,820 1H11 1H12 1H13 Strong technical profitability in Protection & Health and P&C Combined ratio - Protection & Health Profitable and consistently below 96% Combined ratio - P&C Strong improvement in line with Ambition AXA 94.5% 94.0% 94.7% 95.5% 95.5% 99.5% 97.9% 97.6% 96.6% 95.8% 96.0% FY11 FY12 1 FY11 FY12 Ambition AXA 2015 All notes are on page 22 of this document 14 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
15 Focus on G/A Protection & Health: growing and profitable 15 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
16 Protection & Health business Strong volume and profitability growth An important contributor to L&S result CAGR +11% % +12pts 59% Protection & Health as a % of Total L&S Data as of 39% 67% 55% APE (in Euro billion) NBV margin APE NBV Pre-tax Underlying Earnings Further growth potential due to market dynamics Population ageing and growth Medical cost inflation Economic growth Withdrawal of states 16 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
17 Individual Protection AXA at a glance Market potential APE 43% Individual Protection share in total Protection & Health Global mortality protection gap 1 AXA experience $86 trillion worldwide $40 trillion in Asia AXA APE CAGR -: France: +22% Hong Kong: +36% $124 billion annual premium CAGR +15% AXA strategy APE (in Euro billion) NBV margin pts % 67% Further acceleration in our large Protection markets: Japan, US and Asia Product innovation: focus on Pure Protection (critical illness, long-term care) and Protection with Savings products Multi-channel approach: increase focus on alternative channels (direct, telemarketing, bancassurance) and reinforce existing traditional channels Leverage global footprint through the implementation of transversal hubs: Creditor and FamilyProtect Technology: invest in underwriting capacities (predictive underwriting and automated underwriting) and connected devices All notes are on page 22 of this document 17 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
18 Individual Health AXA at a glance Market potential APE 21% Individual Health share in total Protection & Health Market growth Market dynamics Global health spending growth 2.6% in 2013 accelerating to 5.3% (CAGR FY14-FY17) 1 Wealth increase and consumerization Innovation and specialization Changes in demographic and lifestyle Withdrawal of states CAGR +10% AXA strategy APE (in Euro billion) NBV margin pts % 92% Further leverage market leading position as #1 global multiline Health insurer (ex-us) Further develop in six stronghold markets: France, Germany, UK 2, Japan, Hong Kong, Mexico Increase the number of stronghold markets by 2020 with an additional focus on high growth markets: Gulf, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and China In high growth markets, focus on affluent and high net worth segments Extend health insurance towards health services and well being management leveraging internal capacities (e.g. AXA Assistance) and focus on digitalization All notes are on page 22 of this document 18 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
19 Group Protection & Health AXA at a glance Market potential APE 36% Group Protection & Health share in total Protection & Health Worldwide Group P&H Market Group P&H premiums CAGR 1 (-FY20) >3% Domestic Mature markets +12% Domestic High growth markets Expat market premiums CAGR 2 (FY11-FY17): +11% APE (in Euro billion) NBV margin CAGR +8% pt % 32% AXA strategy Enhance growth in our stronghold markets: France, Switzerland and Belgium Leverage expertise from AXA France and AXA Switzerland to increase focus in mature markets (US, Germany, Italy and Spain) and high growth markets Reinforce efficiency and focus on growth in Asia (Indonesia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore) Create an aligned, global compliant offer for expats including a worldwide network of providers and innovative assistance services Become Top 3 provider of employee benefits solutions for Multi-National Companies (MAXIS) All notes are on page 22 of this document 19 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
20 Today s key messages achievements in line with consistent delivery on Ambition AXA Performing well in a low interest rate environment Focus on G/A Protection & Health business: growing and profitable 20 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
21 Q&A session Q&A session 21 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
22 Notes (1/2) All year over year comments are on comparable basis for activity indicators (constant Forex, scope and methodology), and at constant Forex for earnings, except for EPS and CAGR growth which is on reported basis; new business margin growth from 2010 to 2014 is on reported basis too. Page 6 1. Other includes scope, country mix, Forex impact, actuarial and modelling assumption changes 2. CAGR: Compound annual growth rate Page 7 1. AXA-Tian Ping and ICBC-AXA Life are not included in Group revenues due to consolidation under equity method. Figures shown on the graph correspond to the period of January 1 to June 30 and are at 100% share. Acquisition of 50% of Tian Ping was completed on February 20, 2014 Page 9 1. Underlying EPS: Underlying Earnings per share; Net RCG: Net realized capital gains 2. Greek government bond impairment 3. Net of undated debt interest charges Page Adjusted ROE: Return corresponds to adjusted earnings net of interest charges on undated debt. Equity corresponds to average shareholders equity excluding undated debt and reserves related to change in fair value Page Excluding holdings 2. Includes G/A Protection & Health, Property & Casualty and International Insurance 3. Estimated impact on Underlying Earnings from General Account only (G/A Savings, G/A Protection & Health and Property & Casualty) Page General Account Invested assets referenced in page 57 of the financial supplement are Euro 696 billion, which include notably Euro 167 billion of Unit-linked assets and Euro 37 billion related to the banking sector 2. Projections assuming an average 2.9% Fixed Income reinvestment rate over next 9 years 22 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
23 Notes (2/2) Page P&H combined ratio calculation was adjusted to exclude Underlying Earnings from associates Page Source: Swiss Re, sigma 6/2013 Life insurance: focusing on consumer, Mortality and Morbidity gaps, aging society and Implications on product development, Mortality protection gap is defined as the additional resources required to maintain the current living standard of dependents (spouse, children, other) after the death of the family breadwinner. A premium rate of 0.3% as estimated by Swiss Re is used to arrive from protection gap in Asia to estimated potential annual premiums. Page Source: Deloitte 2014 Global health care outlook 2. AXA UK PPP business not included in L&S scope but in P&C Page Source: McKinsey Global Source: Roland Berger analysis Bank of America Merrill Lynch Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2014 October 2, 2014
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