Review of Benchmark Infrastructure Costings. Presenter: Viraj Abeykoon

Transcription

1 Review of Benchmark Infrastructure Costings Presenter: Viraj Abeykoon 24 July 2018

2 Disclaimer This presentation contains certain statements and projections provided by or on behalf of Cardno Limited with respect to the anticipated future undertakings. Any forward looking statements reflect various assumptions by or on behalf of Cardno. Accordingly, these statements are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies associated with the business of Cardno which may be beyond the control of Cardno which could cause actual results or trends to differ materially, including but not limited to competition, industry downturns, inability to enforce contractual and other arrangements, legislative and regulatory changes, sovereign and political risks, ability to meet funding requirements, dependence on key personnel and other market and economic factors. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that any such statements and projections will be realised. Cardno makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any such statement of projections or that any projections will be achieved and there can be no assurance that any projections are attainable or will be realised. Additionally, Cardno makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in relation to, and no responsibility or liability (whether for negligence, under statute or otherwise) is or will be accepted by Cardno or by any of their respective officers, directors, shareholders, partners, employees, or advisers (Relevant Parties) as to or in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information, statements, opinions or matters (express or implied) arising out of, contained in or derived from this presentation or any omission from this presentation or of any other written or oral information or opinions provided now or in the future to any interested party or its advisers. In furnishing this presentation, Cardno undertakes no obligation to provide any additional or updated information whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise. Except to the extent prohibited by law, the Relevant Parties disclaim all liability that may otherwise arise due to any of this information being inaccurate or incomplete. By obtaining this document, the recipient releases the Relevant Parties from liability to the recipient for any loss or damage which any of them may suffer or incur arising directly or indirectly out of or in connection with any use of or reliance on any of this information, whether such liability arises in contract, tort (including negligence) or otherwise. This document does not constitute, and should not be construed as, either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. It does not include all available information and should not be used in isolation as a basis to invest in Cardno. 1 Title of Presentation goes here

3 Topics 01 Introduction 02 Overview of Methodology 03 Background Data Processing 04 Monte-Carlo Analysis 05 Standardising Rates 06 Example Results 2 Title of Presentation goes here

4 01 Introduction 3 Title of Presentation goes here

5 01 Introduction The project aims to achieve: > Streamlined delivery of PSPs and ICPs > Provide accurate Benchmark Cost Estimates with a high degree of confidence 6 Infrastructure categories were investigated: > Roads and Intersections > Bridges > Culverts > Sporting Pavilions > Sports and Recreational Fields > Community Centers 4 Title of Presentation goes here

6 02 Overview of Methodology 5 Title of Presentation goes here

7 02 Overview of Methodology Collate VPA Data Extract Statistical Properties Run Monte-Carlo Process Obtain two types of Rates Obtain Total Project Costs for Infrastructure Items Prepare representative drawings and extract quantities 6 Title of Presentation goes here

8 03 Background Data Processing 7 Title of Presentation goes here

9 03 Background Data Processing Create a database of previously adopted rates Split to various infrastructure items Checked for Regional/ Topographical variations Estimates with insufficient granularity were discarded 8 Title of Presentation goes here

10 03 Background Data Processing > Extracting Statistical Properties Average Rate for each element Standard Deviation for each element > Regional Variances and Topographical Variances were not observed in the data. > Extracted costs modeled to follow a normal distribution Example Item Estimate 1 Estimate 2 Estimate 3 Mean Standard Deviation Kerb (per meter) Drainage Pipe (per meter) Title of Presentation goes here

11 04 Monte-Carlo Analysis 10 Title of Presentation goes here

12 04 Monte-Carlo Analysis > Monte-Carlo analysis is a world-renowned tool used to simulate a range of possibilities > In this instance, a range of infrastructure costs > Results can be used to provide Probabilistic Estimates > Cardno conducted 200,000 simulations > Quantities for above simulations were extracted from representative drawings 11 Title of Presentation goes here

13 % % 04 Monte-Carlo Analysis Item Rate ($/m) Quantity (m) Total ($) Kerb Drainage TOTAL Title of Presentation goes here

14 Frequency 04 Monte-Carlo Analysis Repeating this process over 200,000 iterations provides a distribution of possible project costs. Cost Frequency Distribution Project Cost P50 and P90 Totals were selected. 13 Title of Presentation goes here

15 05 Standardising Rates 14 Title of Presentation goes here

16 % % 05 Standardising Rates > Obtained 2 sets of rates for each item producing P90 and P50 Monte-Carlo totals > Based on Inversing Normal Distribution of rates > Example Monte Carlo result is P90 = $3,420 Item P90 Rate ($/m) Quantity (m) Total ($) Kerb Drainage TOTAL Title of Presentation goes here

17 06 Example Results 16 Title of Presentation goes here

18 06 Example Results 17 Title of Presentation goes here

19 06 Example Results 18 Title of Presentation goes here

20 06 Example Results 19 Title of Presentation goes here

21 06 Example Results 20 Title of Presentation goes here

22 Thank you 21 Title Review of Presentation of Infrastructure goes here Benchmark Costings