TABLE OF CONTENTS 0.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1

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1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 0.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 Trade credit insurance in China and the Middle East recorded particularly rapid growth from 2009 to China and the US host the largest markets for trade credit insurance across the ten territories analysed although relative to GDP the South African market is the most developed... 4 Three international specialists dominate the market for trade credit insurance in four markets but in overall terms more business across the ten geographies is underwritten by other players... 5 The total market is predicted to expand at a compound annual rate of 10% in real terms up to The markets for export and domestic trade credit cover are forecast to advance at a broadly similar pace INTRODUCTION... 8 What is this report about?... 8 Rationale... 8 Several factors underpin the rationale for the production of this study... 8 There are several distribution channel options in addition to brokers... 8 Globally, trade credit insurers cover over USD 2 trillion of commercial credit exposures... 8 The report provides a standardised analysis of important metrics for trade credit insurance... 9 Methodology... 9 Research program... 9 Market data analysis Definitions Trade credit insurance Single-risk and annual policies Export and domestic policies Political and business risks Premiums Abbreviations PartnerBASE Finaccord MAJOR MARKET OVERVIEW Introduction Market size and growth Value of premiums The value of gross written premiums reached more than USD 3.6 billion across the ten markets in Five of the ten markets have seen premiums grow by more than 10% per year in nominal terms since Premiums as a percentage of GDP Russia hosts the least developed market for trade credit insurance relative to its GDP Across the ten territories, factoring markets display greatly differing characteristics and growth rates In several markets, both factoring and trade credit insurance are fairly recent innovations Market segmentation Segmentation by size of customer As an average across all ten territories, smaller customers account for just over one fifth of the market Segmentation between single-risk and annual policies Single-risk trade credit insurance policies are most significant in China Segmentation between export and domestic trade credit insurance The relative importance of export trade credit insurance is greatest in India and the Middle East and the latter is the most export-dependent economy of the ten considered Segmentation between cover for political risks and business risks FINACCORD (04/2014) ii

2 Acquiring cover for political risks is of most importance to clients in Brazil Underwriter market shares Atradius, Coface and Euler Hermes together hold over 50% of the market in four of the ten territories More than 60 different underwriters work on a regular basis with brokers in at least one country Both AIG and Coface hold relationships with brokers in nine of the ten markets covered Several underwriters ranked in the top 20 are limited to operations in one country only Distribution channels Brokers constitute the main distribution channel in five markets although there are several alternatives including direct and agency sales and sales via banks and factoring companies Banks are involved in the intermediation of trade credit insurance in six out of ten markets Trade associations in China are most likely to offer trade credit insurance to members Future outlook Across the ten territories combined, the market value is expected to make rapid progress up to with the strongest real growth occurring in China, India, the Middle East and Russia The market for domestic trade credit insurance is likely to decline in one of the ten territories but real growth is predicted for all ten countries in the case of export trade credit insurance AUSTRALIA Introduction Market size, growth and segmentation The Australian trade credit insurance market has lacked momentum in recent years The number of insolvencies hit an all-time high in the fiscal year Over 50% of business-to-business transactions in Australia are made with deferred payment terms A few brokers concentrate on selling trade credit insurance to smaller companies Most brokers surveyed sell single-risk policies although this remains a small part of the total market More than a quarter of the total market is due to export trade credit insurance EFIC is not active in short-term trade credit insurance In recent years, exports have accounted consistently for just over 20% of Australian GDP Political risk policies can sometimes be acquired on a stand-alone basis Factoring as a complementary / substitute product Australia plays host to a relatively well-developed market for factoring Underwriter market shares QBE is comfortably the market leader by value of business underwritten although competition comes from both three international specialists and foreign insurers underwriting trade credit risks offshore As many as 16 underwriters of trade credit insurance attract some degree of broker utilisation Distribution channels NCI has established a dominant position in the distribution of trade credit insurance in Australia although several other brokers maintain sizeable teams in this field The Export Council of Australia maintains relationships with several underwriters of trade credit insurance Future outlook The Australian market is expected to return to gentle growth up to BRAZIL Introduction Market size, growth and segmentation The market for trade credit insurance grew at a compound annual rate of 11.5% between 2009 and and while the industry-wide claims ratio nearly doubled in 2012, it remains comparatively low About one half of all business-to-business transactions in Brazil are made on deferred payment terms Small companies account for a relatively low proportion of total trade credit insurance premiums paid and single-risk policies are not common Trade credit insurance for domestic risks makes up the vast majority of the market albeit SBCE has been active in export trade credit insurance since Compared to other major global markets, the value of exports as a percentage of GDP is fairly low Cover for political risks accounts for a very substantial proportion of the total market value FINACCORD (04/2014) iii

3 ... as a result of the presence of Argentina and China among Brazil's largest trading partners Factoring as a complementary / substitute product The value of Brazil's factoring market more than doubled between 2008 and 2010 before then falling back Underwriter market shares Coface is the largest underwriter in a market in which there are seven significant competitors AIG and Zurich are both understood to have experienced rapid growth in recent years On average, brokers work regularly with close to four of these seven insurance providers At least two significant new competitors are preparing to enter the Brazilian market Distribution channels Brokers are the dominant distribution channel for trade credit insurance in Brazil Leading brokers of trade credit cover include CredRisk Seguros and IRC Brasil although many others are already active or are planning to increase their involvement Future outlook The trade credit insurance market has quite significant potential to grow further up to CANADA Introduction Market size, growth and segmentation Canada s trade credit insurance market has delivered little growth in recent years in spite of the country's reasonably strong economic performance since A high proportion of the market is accounted for by small companies with a turnover below USD 5 million The vast majority of the market is likely to be accounted for by annual policies with export trade credit insurance outweighing domestic trade credit cover by a fairly slim margin Exports account for about 30% of Canadian GDP, a figure that has changed little since Cover for political risks plays a minor role in the Canadian market for trade credit insurance EDC's influence is greater than that of equivalent state-owned enterprises in other countries Factoring as a complementary / substitute product Canada s factoring sector has expanded very rapidly from a low base in recent years Underwriter market shares The presence of EDC means that the Canadian market for trade credit cover is quite concentrated Competition comes from familiar international specialists plus several other niche players Among brokers surveyed, Euler Hermes is the most frequently used provider of trade credit policies with another eight companies enjoying utilisation to one degree or another Distribution channels Insurance agents and direct sales provide significant competition to brokers and several banks are also involved in the distribution of trade credit insurance as are a handful of trade associations, most of which have partnered with EDC Future outlook The trade credit insurance market is forecast to experience improved growth up to CHINA Introduction Market size, growth and segmentation The Chinese market for trade credit insurance has experienced extraordinary growth since Over 40% of business-to-business transactions in China are made with deferred payment terms The bulk of the trade credit insurance market is attributable to premiums paid by larger companies The proportion of single-risk policies within the market total is relatively high in China Export trade credit insurance accounts for more than half of the total market and Sinosure lost its monopoly position in this sector in January The Chinese economy is becoming progressively less dependent on exports Cover for political risks makes up a significant proportion of the total market value Factoring as a complementary / substitute product In recent years, China's factoring market has registered a six-fold increase in value Underwriter market shares Sinosure remains the overall market leader by a very considerable margin while a number of providers compete in domestic trade credit insurance FINACCORD (04/2014) iv

4 including third-ranked Yingda Taihe which sells all of its business on a direct basis Distribution channels Direct sales by insurers and their agents constitute the major distribution channel in China albeit plenty of brokers are active in the market for trade credit insurance including Willis and Zhejiang Guomao, both of which have established substantial specialist teams A primary motivation for buyers of trade credit insurance is to obtain bank finance Several important trade associations in China offer this type of insurance to their members Future outlook The value of the Chinese trade credit insurance market is likely to double by INDIA Introduction Market size, growth and segmentation The Indian market for trade credit insurance has experienced some growth since Almost a half of business-to-business transactions in India are made with deferred payment terms Over 20% of the trade credit insurance market is due to premiums paid by smaller companies In part for regulatory reasons, single-risk policies make up a fairly low proportion of the total market Export trade credit insurance makes up a very sizeable proportion of the total market The value of exports as a percentage of GDP was virtually the same in 2013 as it was in Cover for political risks accounts for a fairly substantial proportion of the total market value Factoring as a complementary / substitute product India s factoring market fell sharply in 2009 before staging a partial recovery in subsequent years Underwriter market shares ECGC dominates the market for trade credit insurance in India Three international trade credit insurance specialists work in conjunction with local partners Among brokers, Tata AIG enjoys the most frequent utilisation followed by IFFCO-Tokio Distribution channels Agents and direct sales limit the distribution share of brokers and few affinity programs exist through other types of intermediary Future outlook Several factors should propel further growth in the market up to JAPAN Introduction Market size, growth and segmentation The value of the Japanese market for trade credit insurance has stagnated in recent years The number of corporate insolvencies was around 15,000 in 2009 but has since declined Small companies with a turnover below USD 5 million account for only a small tranche of the market The importance of single-risk policies varies substantially from one intermediary to another A significant proportion of intermediaries do not offer any cover for export trade credit insurance NEXI is an important competitor in this market The value of Japanese exports as a proportion of GDP has slipped back in recent years Cover for political risks amounts to close to a quarter of the total market for export trade credit insurance Factoring as a complementary / substitute product The value of Japan's factoring market has fluctuated in recent years eguarantee offers an alternative for businesses seeking to insure trade credit receivables Underwriter market shares Market leadership of trade credit insurance in Japan is tightly contested with around a dozen underwriters active in total, including international specialists Intermediaries work regularly with an average of 3.1 providers of trade credit insurance Distribution channels Most trade credit insurance in Japan is sold through multi-tied insurance agencies with a further significant proportion distributed directly Several major trade associations have established affinity schemes for this type of cover Future outlook Future growth in the Japanese market can be driven by a stronger focus on smaller companies FINACCORD (04/2014) v

5 9.0 MIDDLE EAST Introduction Market size, growth and segmentation The regional market for trade credit insurance has experienced very rapid growth in recent years with demand gradually increasing among domestic companies A lack of adequate bankruptcy legislation is generally perceived to be a problem in the whole region Small companies account for a substantial proportion of the regional market for trade credit insurance A majority of brokers surveyed intermediate both annual and single-risk policies A very high proportion of trade credit insurance premiums in the Middle East are export-related The Middle East countries are characterised by a very high value of exports as a percentage of GDP The provision of cover for political risks plays a notable role in the Middle East Factoring as a complementary / substitute product The factoring markets of Qatar and the UAE are growing from a very low base Underwriter market shares Euler Hermes is likely to be a fairly clear market leader in the region among underwriters and is believed to hold an especially high market share in Saudi Arabia Coface maintains several important distribution partnerships in the UAE and Atradius also collaborates with local partners Competitors include international specialists, local underwriters and niche players Distribution channels Brokers are absent from two of the six Middle East countries but present in the other four A number of banks in the region have established distribution relationships for this type of cover Future outlook The boom in trade credit insurance in the Middle East is likely to continue in the coming years RUSSIA Introduction Market size, growth and segmentation In recent years, the Russian market for trade credit insurance has grown rapidly from a low base Corporate bankruptcies have declined in recent years which should aid claims experience A significant proportion of business transactions are still carried out on pre-payment terms The vast majority of the market is due to larger firms with an annual turnover of more than USD 5 million Single-risk policies remain a small segment within the overall market and export trade credit insurance is also under-developed within the total market size albeit Exiar is planning to expand its operations to a wider range of sectors in the future The value of exports as a percentage of Russian GDP lies consistently at around 30% There is a small market for insuring trade-related political risks in Russia Factoring as a complementary / substitute product Russia's factoring market has mushroomed in size since Underwriter market shares Four competitors vie for market leadership in the overall trade credit insurance market Both Coface and Euler Hermes worked with local partners before obtaining their own licenses while Atradius still does so and ONDD went down the route of a joint venture in Having entered the market in 2012, Soglasie is understood to have grown rapidly On average, brokers of trade credit insurance work regularly with close to four underwriters Distribution channels Three brokerages account for the bulk of trade credit insurance intermediated via the broker channel Banks do not sell trade credit cover themselves and only one major trade association has set up an affinity scheme for this policy type Future outlook Further quite robust expansion is forecast for the Russian market SOUTH AFRICA Introduction Market size, growth and segmentation South Africa's trade credit insurance market edged up in every year between 2009 and FINACCORD (04/2014) vi

6 ... although the trend for declining claims ratios up to 2012 is likely to have reversed in A substantial percentage of the total market value is attributable to small business customers Most brokers of trade credit insurance do not intermediate single-risk policies although all are active in export trade credit insurance for which an open market exists The value of South African exports slumped in 2009 but has gradually recovered since then A fairly well-established market exists for political risk cover in South Africa Factoring as a complementary / substitute product The value of South Africa's factoring market has moved up substantially in recent years Underwriter market shares CGIC remains a very clear market leader in South Africa in spite of the acquisition-led entry of Coface in Underwriters at Lloyd's of London are used occasionally but only ever for trade-related political risk cover Distribution channels Cinque and Niche International Brokers are important players in trade credit insurance broking A couple of banks intermediate trade credit policies but no trade associations do so Future outlook Export-related trade credit insurance is expected to outpace domestic risk cover up to US Introduction Market size, growth and segmentation The US trade credit insurance market has experienced a period of consistent growth boosted by an increase in trade transactions made on an open-account basis For several brokers, small companies constitute the most important part of their client base and for several, single-risk policies are comparatively important within their trade credit insurance portfolio Close to a half of the total market is due to export trade credit insurance with a significant proportion of this due to Ex-Im Bank although the US is not an especially export-oriented economy Virtually all brokers offering export trade credit insurance also intermediate cover for political risks Factoring as a complementary / substitute product The US factoring market fell back substantially between 2011 and Accounts receivable put options constitute another possible substitute product especially for larger corporations Underwriter market shares Euler Hermes is comfortably the market leader by value of business underwritten The top six underwriters are likely to account for over 90% of the total market Zurich occupies a strong position in the single-risk segment Five underwriters of trade credit insurance are used by 50% or more of brokers surveyed A significant number of new competitors have entered the market in recent times Distribution channels Brokers are the main distribution channel for trade credit insurance but not the only one Several specialist brokers compete with larger multiline intermediaries Several major banks promote trade credit insurance to their business customers but few trade associations have established affinity schemes in this realm Future outlook The total market value will be close to USD 1 billion by APPENDIX Brokers participating in the survey Australia Brazil Canada China India Japan FINACCORD (04/2014) vii

7 Middle East Russia South Africa US FINACCORD (04/2014) viii

8 LIST OF GRAPHICS / TABLES 0.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION MAJOR MARKET OVERVIEW Estimated gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, Compound annual growth in gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, 2009 to Estimated gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, 2009 to 2013 (table) Ratio of estimated gross written premiums for trade credit insurance to GDP in ten major global markets, segmented by market, Total factoring market value in ten major global markets, segmented by market, 2008 to Correlation between the ratio of estimated gross written premiums for trade credit insurance to GDP and the ratio of the factoring market value to GDP in ten major global markets, segmented by market, Premiums paid by small companies with an annual turnover of less than USD 5 million as a proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, Premiums paid by small companies with an annual turnover of less than USD 5 million as a proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, 2014 (table) Premiums paid for single-risk policies as a proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, Premiums paid for single-risk policies as a proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, 2014 (table) Premiums paid for export trade credit insurance as a proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, Premiums paid for export trade credit insurance as a proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, 2014 (table) Correlation between the ratio of export trade credit insurance to the total market and the ratio of exports to GDP in ten major global markets, segmented by market, Premiums paid for political risk cover as a proportion of the total market for export trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by country, Premiums paid for political risk cover as a proportion of the total market for export trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by country, 2014 (table) Estimated market shares of gross written premiums of the three leading international trade credit insurance underwriters in ten major global markets, segmented by market, Estimated market shares of gross written premiums of the three leading international trade credit insurance underwriters in ten major global markets, segmented by market, 2013 (table) Frequency of usage of specific trade credit insurance underwriters by brokers across all ten major global markets, Frequency of usage of top 20 trade credit insurance underwriters by brokers in ten major global markets, segmented by market, Relative importance of brokers, agents / direct sales and banks / factoring companies as distribution channels for trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by country, Provision rates for trade credit insurance offered by banks in ten major global markets, segmented by market, Provision rates for trade credit insurance offered by trade associations in ten major global markets, segmented by market, Forecast compound annual growth in gross written premiums for total trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, 2013 to FINACCORD (04/2014) ix

9 Forecast growth in gross written premiums for total trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, 2013 and 2017 (table) Forecast gross written premiums for domestic trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, 2013 and Forecast gross written premiums for domestic trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, 2017 (table) Forecast gross written premiums for export trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, 2013 and Forecast gross written premiums for export trade credit insurance in ten major global markets, segmented by market, 2017 (table) AUSTRALIA Gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in Australia, 2009 to proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in Australia, in Australia, insurance in Australia, Values of exports and imports and split of GDP by sector in Australia, 2009 to insurance in Australia, Total factoring market value in Australia, 2008 to Estimated market shares of gross written premiums of trade credit insurance underwriters in Australia, Frequency of usage of specific trade credit insurance underwriters by brokers in Australia, Forecast gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in Australia and the proportion due to export trade credit insurance, Forecast segmentation of gross written premiums in Australia between domestic and export trade credit insurance, 2017 (table) BRAZIL Gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in Brazil, 2009 to proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in Brazil, in Brazil, insurance in Brazil, Values of exports and imports and split of GDP by sector in Brazil, 2009 to insurance in Brazil, Total factoring market value in Brazil, 2008 to Estimated market shares of gross written premiums of trade credit insurance underwriters in Brazil, Frequency of usage of specific trade credit insurance underwriters by brokers in Brazil, Forecast gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in Brazil and the proportion due to export trade credit insurance, Forecast segmentation of gross written premiums in Brazil between domestic and export trade credit insurance, 2017 (table) CANADA Gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in Canada, 2009 to proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in Canada, in Canada, FINACCORD (04/2014) x

10 insurance in Canada, Values of exports and imports and split of GDP by sector in Canada, 2009 to insurance in Canada, Total factoring market value in Canada, 2008 to Estimated market shares of gross written premiums of trade credit insurance underwriters in Canada, Frequency of usage of specific trade credit insurance underwriters by brokers in Canada, Major banks offering trade credit insurance in Canada: operating models and partnerships, Major trade associations offering trade credit insurance in Canada: operating models and partnerships, Forecast gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in Canada and the proportion due to export trade credit insurance, Forecast segmentation of gross written premiums in Canada between domestic and export trade credit insurance, 2017 (table) CHINA Gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in China, 2009 to proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in China, in China, insurance in China, Values of exports and imports and split of GDP by sector in China, 2009 to insurance in China, Total factoring market value in China, 2008 to Estimated market shares of gross written premiums of trade credit insurance underwriters in China, Frequency of usage of specific trade credit insurance underwriters by brokers in China, Major trade associations offering trade credit insurance in China: operating models and partnerships, Forecast gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in China and the proportion due to export trade credit insurance, Forecast segmentation of gross written premiums in China between domestic and export trade credit insurance, 2017 (table) INDIA Gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in India, 2009 to proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in India, in India, insurance in India, Values of exports and imports and split of GDP by sector in India, 2009 to insurance in India, Total factoring market value in India, 2008 to Estimated market shares of gross written premiums of trade credit insurance underwriters in India, Frequency of usage of specific trade credit insurance underwriters by brokers in India, Major banks offering trade credit insurance in India: operating models and partnerships, FINACCORD (04/2014) xi

11 Forecast gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in India and the proportion due to export trade credit insurance, Forecast segmentation of gross written premiums in India between domestic and export trade credit insurance, 2017 (table) JAPAN Gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in Japan, 2009 to proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in Japan, in Japan, insurance in Japan, Values of exports and imports and split of GDP by sector in Japan, 2009 to insurance in Japan, Total factoring market value in Japan, 2008 to Estimated market shares of gross written premiums of trade credit insurance underwriters in Japan, Frequency of usage of specific trade credit insurance underwriters by brokers in Japan, Major trade associations offering trade credit insurance in Japan: operating models and partnerships, Forecast gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in Japan and the proportion due to export trade credit insurance, Forecast segmentation of gross written premiums in Japan between domestic and export trade credit insurance, 2017 (table) MIDDLE EAST Gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in the Middle East, 2009 to proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in the Middle East, in the Middle East, insurance in the Middle East, Values of exports and imports and split of GDP by sector in the Middle East, 2009 to insurance in the Middle East, Total factoring market value in Qatar and the UAE, 2008 to Estimated market shares of gross written premiums of trade credit insurance underwriters in the Middle East, Frequency of usage of specific trade credit insurance underwriters by brokers in the Middle East, Major banks offering trade credit insurance in the Middle East: operating models and partnerships, Forecast gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in the Middle East and the proportion due to export trade credit insurance, Forecast segmentation of gross written premiums in the Middle East between domestic and export trade credit insurance, RUSSIA Gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in Russia, 2009 to proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in Russia, in Russia, insurance in Russia, FINACCORD (04/2014) xii

12 Values of exports and imports and split of GDP by sector in Russia, 2009 to insurance in Russia, Total factoring market value in Russia, 2008 to Estimated market shares of gross written premiums of trade credit insurance underwriters in Russia, Frequency of usage of specific trade credit insurance underwriters by brokers in Russia, Forecast gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in Russia and the proportion due to export trade credit insurance, Forecast segmentation of gross written premiums in Russia between domestic and export trade credit insurance, 2017 (table) SOUTH AFRICA Gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in South Africa, 2009 to proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in South Africa, in South Africa, insurance in South Africa, Values of exports and imports and split of GDP by sector in South Africa, 2009 to insurance in South Africa, Total factoring market value in South Africa, 2008 to Estimated market shares of gross written premiums of trade credit insurance underwriters in South Africa, Frequency of usage of specific trade credit insurance underwriters by brokers in South Africa, Forecast gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in South Africa and the proportion due to export trade credit insurance, Forecast segmentation of gross written premiums in South Africa between domestic and export trade credit insurance, 2017 (table) US Gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in the US, 2009 to proportion of the total market for trade credit insurance in the US, in the US, insurance in the US, Values of exports and imports and split of GDP by sector in the US, 2009 to insurance in the US, Total factoring market value in the US, 2008 to Estimated market shares of gross written premiums of trade credit insurance underwriters in the US, Frequency of usage of specific trade credit insurance underwriters by brokers in the US, Major banks offering trade credit insurance in the US: operating models and partnerships, Forecast gross written premiums for trade credit insurance in the US and the proportion due to export trade credit insurance, Forecast segmentation of gross written premiums in the US between domestic and export trade credit insurance, 2017 (table) APPENDIX FINACCORD (04/2014) xiii