Political and Regulatory Risk in Infrastructure Projects

Transcription

1 Political and Regulatory Risk in Infrastructure Projects 2017

2 3. Political and Regulatory Risk The World Economic Forum s Framework

3 Knowledge Series 2011/ / /14 Project origination Project preparation Project implementation Prioritization and selection of infrastructure projects Report (Oct 2012) Strat. Infrastructure Planner Tool Preparation and acceleration of Public-Private Partnerships Report (May 2013) PPP Maturity Assessment Tool 2014/15 Political Risk Mitigation Operations and maintenance of existing infrastructure Report (Apr 2014) O&M Evaluation Tool Mitigation of political & regulatory risk in infrastructure projects Report (25 Feb 2015) Political & regulatory risk landscape

4 Context Major constraints on foreign investments in emerging markets over the next three years 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Macroeconomic Instability Political and Regulatory Access to Qualified Skills Access to Finance Corruption Infrastructure Capacity Limited Market Opportunities Increased Government Intervention Number of investor-vs-state arbitration cases Developed economies Transition economies Developing economies 27 7% (2) 19% (5) 74% (20) % (9) 15% (6) 62% (24) % (12) 18% (7) 53% (21)

5 Risk factor Preparation/Planning/ Design/Construction phase Operation phase Termination phase Business factors Physical conditions/ Demand side/ Business partners/ Own performance Political & regulatory decisions Affecting specific project Affecting sector or entire economy Site risk, e.g. difficult geological conditions Design risk, e.g. inadequate planning Construction risk, e.g. cost overrun Financing risk, e.g. failure to place bond Cancellation & change of scope risk e.g. rejection of PPP contract by parliament Environmental & other permit risk e.g. delay of construction permits Community risk e.g. non-approval by native populations Currency transfer & convertibility risk, e.g. interdiction of profit repatriation 5 6 Change of industry regulation risk, e.g. feed-in tariff cut, change of emission laws, change of labour laws, foreign-ownership restrictions Taxation risk, e.g. introduction of special taxes, increase in corporate tax rate 4 Commercial risk, e.g. false demand estimate Operating-cost risk, e.g. wage increase Performance risk, e.g. unavailability Re-financing risk, e.g. floating interest rates Expropriation risk e.g. nationalization Breach of contract risk e.g. denial of payment Asset-specific regulation risk e.g. operating time restrictions Judicial risk, e.g. lack of predictability and timeliness of court decisions, uncertain enforceability of legal titles End-value risk, e.g. overly depleted asset Focus of report Concession duration/renewal risk e.g. early termination Transfer risk e.g. dispute over asset quality Decommissioning risk e.g. severe disposal requirements 14 Corruption risk/market-distortion risk, e.g. demand of side-payments by agencies; opaque procurement processes Macro- & socioeconomic environment Force majeure Risk of change to macro-economic fundamentals, e.g. economic crisis, exchange rate volatility, interest rate volatility, inflation Risk of change to socio-economic fundamentals, e.g. ageing society, xenophobia Risk of man-made events, e.g. war, terrorism, civil disturbance, labour strikes/industrial action Risk of natural disasters, e.g. earthquake, flooding, hurricane, landslide

6 Risk factor Preparation/Planning/ Design/Construction phase Operation phase Termination phase Business factors Physical conditions/ Demand side/ Business partners/ Own performance Political & regulatory decisions Affecting specific project Affecting sector or entire economy Site risk, e.g. difficult geological conditions Design risk, e.g. inadequate planning Construction risk, e.g. cost overrun Financing risk, e.g. failure to place bond Cancellation & change of scope risk e.g. rejection of PPP contract by parliament Environmental & other permit risk e.g. delay of construction permits Community risk e.g. non-approval by native populations Currency transfer & convertibility risk, e.g. interdiction of profit repatriation 5 6 Commercial risk, e.g. false demand estimate Operating-cost risk, e.g. wage increase Performance risk, e.g. unavailability Re-financing risk, e.g. floating interest rates Expropriation risk e.g. nationalization Breach of contract risk e.g. denial of payment Asset-specific regulation risk e.g. operating time restrictions Judicial risk, e.g. lack of predictability and timeliness of court decisions, uncertain enforceability of legal titles Focus of report Concession duration/renewal risk e.g. early termination Change of industry regulation risk, e.g. feed-in tariff cut, change of emission laws, change of labour laws, foreign-ownership restrictions Taxation risk, e.g. introduction of special taxes, increase in corporate tax rate End-value risk, e.g. overly depleted asset Transfer risk e.g. dispute over asset quality Decommissioning risk e.g. severe disposal requirements 14 Corruption risk/market-distortion risk, e.g. demand of side-payments by agencies; opaque procurement processes Macro- & socioeconomic environment Force majeure Risk of change to macro-economic fundamentals, e.g. economic crisis, exchange rate volatility, interest rate volatility, inflation Risk of change to socio-economic fundamentals, e.g. ageing society, xenophobia Risk of man-made events, e.g. war, terrorism, civil disturbance, labour strikes/industrial action Risk of natural disasters, e.g. earthquake, flooding, hurricane, landslide

7 Risk factor Business factors Physical conditions/ Demand side/ Business partners/ Own performance Political & regulatory decisions Affecting specific project Affecting sector or entire economy Macro- & socioeconomic environment Force majeure Preparation/Planning/ Design/Construction phase 1 Cancellation/Change Operation phase of scope risk: Lisbon Madrid high-speed line Termination phase Site risk, e.g. difficult geological conditions Commercial risk, e.g. false demand estimate End-value risk, e.g. overly depleted asset In 2009, the first 165km section of the Lisbon Design risk, e.g. inadequate planning Operating-cost risk, e.g. wage increase Madrid line is awarded to consortium ELOS Following elections, new Portuguese Construction risk, e.g. cost overrun Performance risk, e.g. unavailability government cancels project in 2011 as part of Financing risk, e.g. failure to place bond austerity measures in wake of public-debt crisis Re-financing risk, e.g. floating interest rates Focus of report Cancellation & change of scope risk 4 Expropriation risk 7 Concession duration/renewal risk e.g. rejection of PPP contract by parliament e.g. nationalization e.g. early termination Environmental & other permit risk 5 5 Breach 2of Environmental contract risk & other permit 8 Transfer risk: risk e.g. delay of construction permits e.g. denial of payment e.g. dispute over asset quality Datteln IV power plant Community risk 6 6 Asset-specific regulation risk 9 Decommissioning risk e.g. non-approval by native populations e.g. operating time restrictions e.g. severe disposal requirements E.ON receives construction permit for 1 GW hard coal block in 2007 Change of industry regulation risk, e.g. feed-in tariff cut, change of emission laws, change of labour laws, foreign-ownership restrictions At ~90% completion, court ruling declares Taxation risk, e.g. introduction of special taxes, increase in corporate tax rate permits faulty in 2009/10 permit procedure is restarted, with final outcome still uncertain in 2014 Currency transfer & convertibility risk, e.g. interdiction of profit repatriation Judicial risk, e.g. lack of predictability and timeliness of court decisions, uncertain enforceability of legal titles Community risk: HidroAysén hydropower 14 Corruption risk/market-distortion risk, e.g. demand of side-payments by agencies; opaque procurement processes 3 Risk of change to macro-economic fundamentals, e.g. economic crisis, exchange rate volatility, interest rate volatility, inflation International JV HidroAysén gets Chilean Risk of change to socio-economic fundamentals, e.g. ageing society, xenophobia government approval for US$3 billion dam projects in 2011 Local population strongly opposes project Risk of man-made events, e.g. war, terrorism, civil disturbance, labour strikes/industrial action (60 75% against, according to opinion polls) following protests and lawsuits, project put on Risk of natural disasters, e.g. earthquake, flooding, hurricane, landslide hold in 2012 and finally rejected in 2014

8 Preparation/Planning/ Operation phase Termination phase Risk factor Design/Construction phase 4 Expropriation risk: Railway systems of Zambia Business factors Site risk, e.g. difficult geological conditions Commercial risk, e.g. false demand estimate End-value risk, e.g. overly depleted asset Physical conditions/ Operation of Zambian Railway network is Design risk, e.g. inadequate planning Operating-cost risk, e.g. wage increase concessioned to RSZ (consortium incl. South Demand side/ African financial Construction institutions risk, and e.g. the cost World overrun Performance risk, e.g. unavailability Business partners/ Bank) in 2003 for 20 years Own performance In 2012, Financing Zambian government risk, e.g. failure cancels to place bond Re-financing risk, e.g. floating interest rates concession with immediate effect, citing Focus of report mismanagement (which is disputed by the company) 1 Cancellation & change of scope risk 4 Expropriation risk 7 Concession duration/renewal risk e.g. rejection of PPP contract by parliament e.g. nationalization e.g. early termination 5 Breach of contract Affecting risk: 2 specific Environmental & other permit risk 5 5 Breach of contract risk 8 Transfer risk Cochabamba e.g. denial of payment project water supply e.g. delay of construction permits e.g. dispute over asset quality 3 Community risk 6 6 Asset-specific regulation risk 9 Decommissioning risk International e.g. non-approval JV AdT receives by native 40-year populations e.g. operating time restrictions e.g. severe disposal requirements Political & concession for water-service operation & expansion 10 regulatory Change in 1999of industry regulation risk, e.g. feed-in tariff cut, change of emission laws, change of labour laws, foreign-ownership restrictions After riots against water-tariff increases in decisions 1999/2000, 11 Affecting Taxation government risk, e.g. declares introduction contract of special taxes, increase in corporate tax rate revoked legal cases with foreign investors sector or settled 12by Currency 2006 transfer & convertibility risk, e.g. interdiction of profit repatriation entire economy 13 Judicial risk, e.g. lack of predictability and timeliness of court decisions, uncertain enforceability of legal titles 6 Asset-specific regulation risk: 14 Night-flight restrictions at Corruption Zurich Airport risk/market-distortion risk, e.g. demand of side-payments by agencies; opaque procurement processes Macro- & socioeconomic environment Force majeure Aircraft noise affecting residents in Switzerland Risk of change to macro-economic fundamentals, e.g. economic crisis, exchange rate volatility, interest rate volatility, inflation and Germany, motivating regulatory changes (e.g. limitations Risk of of change approaches to socio-economic from German fundamentals, e.g. ageing society, xenophobia side introduced in 2003, bilateral treaty with further limitations signed in 2012) Fund set Risk up to of cover man-made costs incurred events, through e.g. war, terrorism, civil disturbance, labour strikes/industrial action aircraft noise at night Risk of natural disasters, e.g. earthquake, flooding, hurricane, landslide

9 Risk factor Business factors Physical conditions/ Demand side/ Business partners/ Own performance Political & regulatory decisions Affecting specific project Affecting sector or entire economy Macro- & socioeconomic environment Force majeure 7 Preparation/Planning/ Concession-duration/renewal Design/Construction phase risk: German nuclear phase-out Operation phase Site risk, e.g. difficult geological German conditions parliament decides Commercial to phase-out risk, nuclear e.g. false demand estimate power plants by 2022, and cuts individual plants Design risk, e.g. inadequate planning Operating-cost risk, e.g. wage increase remaining lifetime Shorter plant lifetimes causing losses for Vattenfall of Construction risk, e.g. cost overrun Performance risk, e.g. unavailability 5 billion, according to press international Financing risk, e.g. failure to arbitration place bond is ongoing in 2014 Re-financing risk, e.g. floating interest rates 1 Cancellation & change of scope risk e.g. rejection of PPP contract by parliament 8 Transfer risk: 2 Environmental & other permit risk 5 e.g. Delhi delay of Airport construction Metro permitsexpress Line 4 5 Expropriation risk e.g. nationalization Breach of contract risk e.g. denial of payment 13 Judicial risk, e.g. lack of predictability and timeliness of court decisions, uncertain enforceability of legal titles 9 14 Corruption Decommissioning risk/market-distortion risk: risk, e.g. demand of side-payments by agencies; opaque procurement processes Offshore installations near UK coast Risk of change to macro-economic offshore fundamentals, Oil & Gas e.g. installations economic crisis, will exchange rate volatility, interest rate volatility, inflation decommission by 2030, according to estimates, plus Risk of change to socio-economic offshore wind fundamentals, farms being e.g. ramped-up ageing society, xenophobia Cost for decommissioning will greatly depend on Risk of man-made events, environmental e.g. war, terrorism, standards civil disturbance, for dismantling, labour strikes/industrial removing action and disposing of the installations at end of asset Risk of natural disasters, e.g. lifetime earthquake, flooding, hurricane, landslide 7 8 Termination phase End-value risk, e.g. overly depleted asset Focus of report Concession duration/renewal risk e.g. early termination Transfer risk e.g. dispute over asset quality 3 Community risk 6 6 Asset-specific regulation risk 9 Airport high-speed metro line in Delhi based on a BOT Decommissioning risk e.g. non-approval by native populations e.g. operating time restrictions e.g. severe disposal requirements contract termination of the contract after 1 year in due to operational problems Change of industry regulation risk, e.g. feed-in tariff cut, change of emission laws, change of labour laws, foreign-ownership restrictions Termination payment depending on whether public 11 Taxation risk, authorities are held responsible for the problems e.g. introduction of special taxes, increase in corporate tax rate arbitration is pending 12 Currency transfer & convertibility risk, e.g. interdiction of profit repatriation

10 10 Change of industry regulation Preparation/Planning/ risk: Spanish renewable subsidy cut Operation phase Termination phase Risk factor In wake of Design/Construction public-debt crisis, Spain retroactively phase cuts feed-in tariff for existing solar-power projects in 2010 and provides in 2014 subsidy system that electricity producers may not earn more than 7.5% p.a. over their life time Several operators face bankruptcy foreign investors file for international arbitration in 2014 Business factors Site risk, e.g. difficult geological conditions Commercial risk, e.g. false demand estimate End-value risk, e.g. overly depleted asset Physical conditions/ Design risk, e.g. inadequate planning Operating-cost risk, e.g. wage increase Demand 11 side/ Taxation risk: "Crisis taxes" in Hungary Construction Performance risk, e.g. unavailability Business partners/ Hungary risk, introduces e.g. cost special overrun crisis taxes in the energy, retail and telecommunications sectors in 2010, mainly affecting foreign operators Own performance Financing risk, e.g. failure to place bond Re-financing risk, e.g. floating interest rates Following EU pressure, certain discriminatory crisis taxes phased out at end of 2012 but new utility tax in force since 2013, and future tax situation for foreign companies remains uncertain in 2014 Focus of report 1 Cancellation & change of scope risk 4 Expropriation risk 7 Concession duration/renewal risk e.g. rejection of PPP contract by parliament e.g. nationalization e.g. early termination Affecting 12 Currency transfer and convertibility risk: CADIVI exchange controls in Venezuela 2 specific Environmental & other permit Venezuela risk introduces 5 5exchange Breach controls of contract under risk new Commission CADIVI in : Transfer risk e.g. delay of construction permits e.g. denial of payment e.g. dispute over asset quality project restrictions on currency conversion and profits repatriation for foreign companies 3 Community risk Subsequently, international 6 6 Asset-specific companies freeze/reduce regulation risk investment, and foreign-currency 9 Decommissioning scarcity occurs risk e.g. non-approval by native populations e.g. operating time restrictions e.g. severe disposal requirements Political & regulatory decisions Affecting sector or entire economy Change of industry regulation risk, e.g. feed-in tariff cut, change of emission laws, change of labour laws, foreign-ownership restrictions Taxation risk, e.g. introduction of special taxes, increase in corporate tax rate Currency transfer & convertibility risk, e.g. interdiction of profit repatriation Judicial risk, e.g. lack of predictability and timeliness of court decisions, uncertain enforceability of legal titles 14 Corruption risk/market-distortion risk, e.g. demand of side-payments by agencies; opaque procurement processes Judicial Macro- risk: & socioeconomic enforcement in Italy the Golden Quadrilateral in India Dispute settlement Risk of change and to macro-economic fundamentals, Corruption e.g. economic risk/market-distortion crisis, exchange rate volatility, interest risk: rate Corruption volatility, inflation related to contract Risk of change to socio-economic fundamentals, e.g. ageing society, xenophobia environment According to Global Competitiveness Report, Italy ranks 143rd The US$13 billion highway network (largest highway project in India) connects out of 144 in efficiency of legal system in settling disputes Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, and Delhi companies require Risk on average of man-made 1,185 days events, to enforce e.g. war, a Launched in 2001 and managed by the National Highways Authority of India terrorism, civil disturbance, labour strikes/industrial action contract (OECD average = 529 days) (NHAI), the project was at the centre of massive corruption allegations, Force majeure As a result, judicial Risk system of natural now regarded disasters, impediment e.g. earthquake, to including leakage of insider information from NHAI, unlawful sub-contracting, flooding, hurricane, landslide investment and growth and neglected follow-up of unlawful sub-contracting

11 4. Assessment Manifestation of Political and Regulatory Risk in Indonesia

12 Workshop objectives Identify and characterize the main manifestations of political and regulatory risks in infrastructure projects Highlight the actions taken by public and private sectors to mitigate such risks Build multi-sectorial commitment towards public-private collaborative responses to political and regulatory risks in infrastructure projects 12

13 Opening BWG Progress to date Risk Framework & Assessment Next Steps Assessment Methodology 1. Proceed individually, using the printed risk framework. Consider the current and nearterm (e.g., the next 5 years) conditions in the region for infrastructure projects, and identify: a. The risk with the greatest likelihood. b. The risk with the greatest impact. 2. Proceed individually, transferring your assessment to the map on the wall. Please place two colored adhesive dots indicating your top choice for each: a. One blue dot on the with the greatest likelihood b. One orange dot on with the greatest impact

14 Assessment Results Impact # Risk % of votes Likelihood # Risk % of votes

15 Discussion 1. What are the reasons behind your assessment?

16 5. Mitigation Measures Availability and state of development in Indonesia

17 Source: World Economic Forum; Boston Consulting Group World Economic Forum x.x Report section 4. Culture of open dialogue Joint public-private measures Management of risk perception and return expectation Multi-stakeholder dialogue beyond specific projects Private-sector measures Appropriate use of Effective interaction Inclusive financial instruments with public sector community engagement Responsible business conduct Risk guarantees and political-risk insurances Constructive communication with public agencies Participatory planning and low-burden construction Prevention and prosecution of illegal or unethical behaviour Tradeable instruments and ownership structure Monitoring of political developments, and advocacy strategy Ongoing community involvement during operation Professional and sustainable operations Public-sector measures 2.1 Robust infrastructure regulation and contracts 2.2 General stability of laws and regulation 2.3 Reliable and efficient administration Rules that are adaptive in a predictable way Legal architecture conducive to preserving established principles Clear agency set-up, and efficient procurement and permit processes Stress-tested regulation that will function under unfavourable conditions Non-partisan alignment on infrastructure vision and strategic decisions Strict implementation of anti-corruption and transparency standards 2.4 Reliable dispute-resolution mechanisms Range of dispute-resolution options Effective judicial capacity 2.5 International commitments International investment agreements Transnational programme management for cross-border infrastructure projects

18 Source: World Economic Forum; Boston Consulting Group World Economic Forum x.x Report section 4. Culture of open dialogue Joint public-private measures Management of risk perception and return expectation Multi-stakeholder dialogue beyond specific projects Private-sector measures Appropriate use of Effective interaction Inclusive financial instruments with public sector community engagement Responsible business conduct Risk guarantees and political-risk insurances Constructive communication with public agencies Participatory planning and low-burden construction Prevention and prosecution of illegal or unethical behaviour Tradeable instruments and ownership structure Monitoring of political developments, and advocacy strategy Ongoing community involvement during operation Professional and sustainable operations Public-sector measures 2.1 Robust infrastructure regulation and contracts 2.2 General stability of laws and regulation 2.3 Reliable and efficient administration Rules that are adaptive in a predictable way Legal architecture conducive to preserving established principles Clear agency set-up, and efficient procurement and permit processes Stress-tested regulation that will function under unfavourable conditions Non-partisan alignment on infrastructure vision and strategic decisions Strict implementation of anti-corruption and transparency standards 2.4 Reliable dispute-resolution mechanisms Range of dispute-resolution options Effective judicial capacity 2.5 International commitments International investment agreements Transnational programme management for cross-border infrastructure projects

19 Source: World Economic Forum; Boston Consulting Group World Economic Forum x.x Report section 4. Culture of open dialogue Joint public-private measures Management of risk perception and return expectation Multi-stakeholder dialogue beyond specific projects Private-sector measures Appropriate use of Effective interaction Inclusive financial instruments with public sector community engagement Responsible business conduct Risk guarantees and political-risk insurances Constructive communication with public agencies Participatory planning and low-burden construction Prevention and prosecution of illegal or unethical behavior Tradeable instruments and ownership structure Monitoring of political developments, and advocacy strategy Ongoing community involvement during operation Professional and sustainable operations Public-sector measures 2.1 Robust infrastructure regulation and contracts 2.2 General stability of laws and regulation 2.3 Reliable and efficient administration Rules that are adaptive in a predictable way Legal architecture conducive to preserving established principles Clear agency set-up, and efficient procurement and permit processes Stress-tested regulation that will function under unfavourable conditions Non-partisan alignment on infrastructure vision and strategic decisions Strict implementation of anti-corruption and transparency standards 2.4 Reliable dispute-resolution mechanisms Range of dispute-resolution options Effective judicial capacity 2.5 International commitments International investment agreements Transnational programme management for cross-border infrastructure projects

20 Source: World Economic Forum; Boston Consulting Group World Economic Forum x.x Report section 4. Culture of open dialogue Joint public-private measures Management of risk perception and return expectation Multi-stakeholder dialogue beyond specific projects Private-sector measures Appropriate use of Effective interaction Inclusive financial instruments with public sector community engagement Responsible business conduct Risk guarantees and political-risk insurances Constructive communication with public agencies Participatory planning and low-burden construction Prevention and prosecution of illegal or unethical behaviour Tradeable instruments and ownership structure Monitoring of political developments, and advocacy strategy Ongoing community involvement during operation Professional and sustainable operations Public-sector measures 2.1 Robust infrastructure regulation and contracts 2.2 General stability of laws and regulation 2.3 Reliable and efficient administration Rules that are adaptive in a predictable way Legal architecture conducive to preserving established principles Clear agency set-up, and efficient procurement and permit processes Stress-tested regulation that will function under unfavourable conditions Non-partisan alignment on infrastructure vision and strategic decisions Strict implementation of anti-corruption and transparency standards 2.4 Reliable dispute-resolution mechanisms Range of dispute-resolution options Effective judicial capacity 2.5 International commitments International investment agreements Transnational programme management for cross-border infrastructure projects

21 Assessment Methodology 1. Proceed individually, using the printed mitigation measures diagram. Consider the current and near-term (e.g., the next 5 years) conditions in the region for infrastructure projects, and identify: a. The measure with the greatest degree of development. b. The measure with the greatest need for development. 2. Proceed individually, transferring your assessment to the map on the wall. Please place two colored adhesive dots indicating your top choice for each: a. One green dot on the measure with the greatest degree of development b. One orange dot on the measure with the greatest need for development

22 Assessment Results In place In need 1 # Existing, well developed measures % of votes 1 # Measure in greatest need for development % of votes

23 Discussion 1. What are the reasons behind your assessment? 2. How can the region accelerate the development/creation of the most needed measures?

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