Example of risk management scheme: MKR in Hungary

Transcription

1 Example of risk management scheme: MKR in Hungary 7th meeting of the Agricultural Markets Task Force - Risk management Brussels, 4. October Anikó Juhász, AKI

2 Outline of the presentation 1. Grounds of high risk exposure in Hungary 2. Evolution of risk management tools an overview 3. Management of crop production risks the MKR 4. Future plans developing risk management tools in MKR

3 Hungary why so important to tackle risks? Borders in Europe Landlocked position = higher transfer costs

4 Hungary why so important to tackle risks? Population density in Europe Landlocked position Far from markets/comsumers = higher transfer costs

5 Hungary why so important to tackle risks? Land cover in Europe Landlocked position Far from markets High cropland ratio great crop production potential = pressure to export

6 Hungary why so important to tackle risks? Landlocked position Far from markets High cropland ratio great crop production potential Continental/pannonian climate = high crop yield volatility

7 Hungary why so important to tackle risks? Wheat price deviations from EU average (in percent) Lower prices (DEU) Germany (FRA) France (NED) Netherlands (OST) Austria (BEL) Belgium (ITA) Italy (HUN) Hungary Corn price deviations from EU average (in percent) Source: Eurostat (DEU) Germany (FRA) France (NED) Netherlands (OST) Austria (BEL) Belgium (ITA) Italy (HUN) Hungary

8 Hungary why so important to tackle risks? Wheat yield deviations from MS's average (in percent) Lower prices Greater crop yield variability Corn yield deviations from MS's average (in percent) -25 (DEU) Germany (FRA) France (NED) Netherlands (OST) Austria (BEL) Belgium (ITA) Italy -20 (HUN) Hungary (DEU) Germany (FRA) France (NED) Netherlands Source: Eurostat (OST) Austria (BEL) Belgium (ITA) Italy (HUN) Hungary

9 Hungary why so important to tackle risks? Fieldcrop Farm Net Income deviations from MS's average (in percent) Lower prices Greater crop yield variability Greater income variability (DEU) Germany (FRA) France (NED) Netherlands (OST) Austria (BEL) Belgium (ITA) Italy (HUN) Hungary Granivores Farm Net Income deviations from MS's average (in percent) Milk Farm Net Income deviations from MS's average (in percent) Source: EU FADN (DEU) Germany (FRA) France (NED) Netherlands (OST) Austria (BEL) Belgium (ITA) Italy (HUN) Hungary (DEU) Germany (FRA) France (NED) Netherlands (OST) Austria (BEL) Belgium (ITA) Italy (HUN) Hungary

10 Risk management tools and its use in Hungary Price risk intervention August of 2006: half of the EU s intervention stock (8.1 million tons) is comprised of Hungarian grain.

11 Risk management tools and its use in Hungary We used it, but it has been eliminated as a risk management tool.. Price risk intervention August of 2006: half of the EU s intervention stock (8.1 million tons) is comprised of Hungarian grain.

12 Risk management tools and its use in Hungary We used it, but it has been eliminated as a risk management tool.. Price risk intervention Price risk use of futures August of 2006: half of the EU s intervention stock (8.1 million tons) is comprised of Hungarian grain.

13 Risk management tools and its use in Hungary We used it, but it has been eliminated as a risk management But the country tool.. and its stock market is too small.. So we tolerate price risks.. Price risk intervention Price risk use of futures August of 2006: half of the EU s intervention stock (8.1 million tons) is comprised of Hungarian grain.

14 Risk management tools and its use in Hungary We used it, but it has been eliminated as a risk management But the country tool.. and its stock market is too small.. So we tolerate price risks.. Price risk intervention Price risk use of futures Production risk insurance Production risk mitigation fund August of 2006: half of the EU s intervention stock (8.1 million tons) is comprised of Hungarian grain.

15 Risk management tools and its use in Hungary We Implementable used it, but it has onbeen the eliminated stage of as a a MS! risk management But the country tool.. and its stock market is too small.. So we tolerate price risks.. Price risk intervention Price risk use of futures Production risk insurance Production risk mitigation fund August of 2006: half of the EU s intervention stock (8.1 million tons) is comprised of Hungarian grain.

16 Risk management tools and its use in Hungary We Implementable used it, but it has onbeen the eliminated risk stage ofasa ams! But the country management tool.. and its stock market is too small.. So we tolerate price risks.. August of 2006: half of the EU s intervention stock (8.1 million tons) is comprised of Hungarian grain. Price risk intervention Price risk use of futures Production risk insurance Production risk mitigation fund Income risk Income Stabilisation Tool

17 Risk management tools and its use in Hungary We Implementable used it, but it has onbeen the eliminated risk stage ofasa ams! But the country management tool.. and its Good opportunity stock markettois too small.. handleso price too!price risks.. we risk, tolerate August of 2006: half of the EU s intervention stock (8.1 million tons) is comprised of Hungarian grain. Price risk intervention Price risk use of futures Production risk insurance Production risk mitigation fund Income risk Income Stabilisation Tool

18 Evolution of production risk management scheme in Hungary I. step % flat rate subsidy to insurance fees Problems: continuous mishmatch between risks covered by insurances and damages caused by risks, only 30-40% penetration Average proportion of damages caused by adverse climatic events Water (flood, inland water and heavy rain) 18% Other 3% Hail and storm 21% Average proportion of risks covered by insurances Storm Frost 5% 5% Other 3% Frost (at winter and spring) 16% Drought 42% Hail 87%

19 Evolution of production risk management scheme in Hungary II. step National Damage Mitigation Fund against all risks Problems: low penetration, very high compensation claims vs. low rate of damage mitigation, high administration burden, reduced number of insured farmers Claims and payments in the NMF 160,0 140,0 120,0 100,0 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 0, Mitigation payments Compensation claims Rate of mitigation (right axis) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

20 Evolution of production risk management scheme in Hungary III. step since 2012 Agricultural Risk Management System (MKR) Two pillars: I. pillar Compulsory National Damage Mitigation Fund Mitigation over 15% loss of farm level AND 30% loss of crop level by all climatic risks II. pillar Voluntary insurance subsidised by the state Compensation over 30%/50% loss of crop level by 8 risk types Common risk definitions, common reference crop yields Interdependencies only 50% of mitigation payments without insurance, the compensation payment is deductable from mitigation payments

21 Structure of MKR Mitigation payments I. pillar II. pillar A, B, C insurance types regulated by the state (min. 55% : 40% : 30% rate of subsidy) EAFRD + national source fee subsidy (65% : 35%) Private insurance companies Insurance fee Compensation payments Farmers Compensation claims National Damage Mitigation Fund farmers + state aid (50% : 50%) Public damage requierements justification Crop losses caused by adverse c. events Information about the insurance contract and the compensation payments

22 Covered risks in MKR Risks Hail, Storm, Fire I. pillar >15% farm level, >30% crop level Corn crashed by hail, June 2010 II. pillar Private add. i. >30% crop level >5% to <30% crop level

23 Covered risks in MKR Risks Hail, Storm, Fire Winter/ spring frost I. pillar >15% farm level, >30% crop level II. pillar >30% crop level >50% crop level Browned apple flowers after spring frost, April 2012 Private add. i. >5% to <30% crop level -

24 Covered risks in MKR Sunflower, August 2011 Risks Hail, Storm, Fire Winter/ spring frost Drought I. pillar >15% farm level, >30% crop level II. pillar Private add. i. >30% crop level >5% to <30% crop level >50% crop level >50% crop level - - Corn, August 2011

25 Covered risks in MKR Risks Hail, Storm, Fire Winter/ spring frost Drought Heavy rain, flood I. pillar >15% farm level, >30% crop level II. pillar >30% crop level >50% crop level >50% crop level >40% crop level Corn, June 2010 after heavy rain Private add. i. >5% to <30% crop level - - -

26 Covered risks in MKR Risks Hail, Storm, Fire Winter/ spring frost Drought Heavy rain, flood Inland water I. pillar >15% farm level, >30% crop level II. pillar Private add. i. >30% crop level >5% to <30% crop level >50% crop level >50% crop level >40% crop level Wheat, 2010 June in inland water

27 Plants Subsidy rate Covered risks Insurance options in the II. pillar A insurance B insurances C insurances Hail Optional Optional Sorm Optional Optional Fire Optional Optional Winter frost Optional Optional Compulsory Spring frost Optional Drought Optional Heavy rain Optional Flood Optional Inland water Maximum subsidy rate 65% 65% 65% Minimum subsidy rate 55% 40% 30% 14 most important 76 important plants Insurable plants plants (corn, wheat, (mainly fruits and All plants apple, etc.) vegetables) Fixed sum of subsidies By case of over-request reduction of subsidy rate First by C from 65 to 30% Second by B from 65 to 40% Third by A from 65 to 55% Thereafter proportional reduction from 55/40/30%

28 yield Payment versions in MKR average yield (100%) 30% deductable I. pillar without insurance damaged yield: 45% hail fire storm winter frost drought inland water damage mitigation (reduced by 50%) heavy rain spring frost flood

29 yield Payment versions in MKR average yield (100%) 30% deductable I. pillar II. pillar A insurance 50% deductable damaged yield: 45% hail fire storm winter frost drought inland water heavy rain spring frost flood damage mitigation A i. payments

30 yield Payment versions in MKR average yield (100%) 5% deductable 30% deductable 50% deductable damaged yield: 45% I. pillar II. pillar A insurance +private additional i. hail fire storm winter frost drought inland water heavy rain spring frost flood damage mitigation A i. payments Private add. i. payments

31 Operation of MKR Electronic notice of loss and claim declaration for farmers on a web application using mapping system

32 Operation of MKR Electronic notice of loss and claim declaration for farmers on a web application using mapping system Claim adjustment support and substitution with meteorological, remote sensing and water management indices

33 Operation of MKR Electronic notice of loss and claim declaration for farmers on a web application using mapping system Claim adjustment support and substitution with meteorological, remote sensing and water management indices Site inspection verification by electronic and GIS technologies

34 Operation of MKR Electronic notice of loss and claim declaration for farmers on a web application using mapping system Claim adjustment support and substitution with meteorological, remote sensing and water management indices Site inspection verification by electronic and GIS technologies Electronic notice of official decisions about the damage mitigation and the insurance premium subsidy

35 Operation of MKR Login to Compensatio n System (EK) Payment of mitigation contributio n Determining the amount of compensatio n contribution ARDA Operation of Damage Mitigation Fund, management of compensation contributions, determination, payment and accounting of compensation Improved or/and insurance compensation subsidies and subsidy management Improved system claim management system Farmers Payments of compensatio n Control of damage determinati on Insurance contracts Insurance claim reporting Client registration Insurance compensation Common Master Data Management System Customer register Register of activitiy area FADN data collection Functional Professional supervision and supervision and coordination of coordination of damage damage Damage determination determination determination workflow supporting software Regional government offices Damage claim notification Damage notification Electronic notice of loss and subsidy claim declaration for farmers Market insurance Insuranc e contract data Interface Insurance compensati on data Interface Agricultural risk management data base Statistic al and reportin g system Interface Interface Interface Interface Interface Interface HCA Determination of damage Damage determination control supporting ICT infrastructure and software Interface NFCSO Interface Operation of the Hungarian FADN System Analysis of profit, cost and income data Agricultural Risk Management Systems Improved FADN (plotlevel yield data collection) Remote sensing damage assessment software and data processing MRD General management of Agricultural Risk Management System (supervision, analysis and planning) RIAE IGCRS HMS GDWM Basic Operation of Remote Basic data services meteorological data Sensing Damage of inland water for services for the Assessment the determination of Remote Ssystem determination of sensing Extended damage damage Extended damage Meteorological Defence assessment Data Collection Information method Meteorological System System Satellite images data processing method Meteorological data storage ICT infrastructure Members of the system: 77 thousand farmers 11 insurance companies and mutual funds 19 regional government offices 8 central offices and institutes

36 million EUR Successes of MKR Change of agricultural insurance fees Tengelycím Increasing number of insured farmers Sum of insurance fees From this: subsidised

37 million EUR Successes of MKR Change of agricultural insurance fees Number of NDMF members Tengelycím 0 Sum of 2007 insurance 2008 fees 2009 From this: 2010 subsidised Increasing number of insured farmers Efficienter administration of a lot of new partners

38 Hectar million EUR Successes of MKR Change of agricultural insurance fees Number of NDMF members Change of compensation claim area in the I. pillar Tengelycím Sum of 2007 insurance 2008 fees 2009 From this: 2010 subsidised Increasing number of insured farmers Efficienter administration of a lot of new partners Precise control of compensation claims Tengelycím Compensation claim area Verified claim area

39 Hectar million EUR Successes of MKR Drought payments in the45ii. pillar, Change of agricultural insurance fees Number of NDMF members Change of compensation claim area in the I. pillar Tengelycím 0 Sum of 2007 insurance 2008 fees 2009 From this: 2010 subsidised Compensation claim area Tengelycím Verified claim area Drought payments in the I. pillar, 2015 Increasing number of insured farmers Efficienter administration of a lot of new partners Precise control of compensation claims Complex databases making possibile developing new risk management tools

40 Future plans developing risk management tools in MKR Development of I.-II. pillar Bonus malus system using damage history resembling car insurance Establishment of III. pillar Income Stabilisation Tool Target groups: dairy, pig and poultry farmers they could nt be members of pillar I. and II. Reforming of pillar IV. subsidised credits for damaged farmers Connection of occurence of damages and crediting of farmers Establishment of pillar 0. the hail protection system covering all the country Installation of ground generators

41 Thank you for your attention!