Global Security Developments and Climate Change. What are the security implications of climate change for the EU?

Transcription

1 Global Security Developments and Climate Change What are the security implications of climate change for the EU?

2 Human security will be progressively threatened as the climate changes. Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability. Climate change is a global threat to security in the 21st century.

3 Compound climate-fragility risks Climate change a global threat to security in the 21st century Risks and conflict dynamics are already observable today. No simple causal link between climate change and fragility. Climate change converges with other pressures and shocks and increases the risks to the stability of states and societies. Climate change acts as a risk multiplier Quellen: Asianet-Pakistan / shutterstock.com, Paco, Charles Roffey/flickr.com 3

4 Seven compound climate-fragility risks 1. Global pressures are increasing URBANIZATION ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION UNEVEN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT & INEQUALITY TRANSBOUNDARY WATER MANAGEMENT SEA-LEVEL RISE & COASTAL DEGRADATION 2. Creating 7 compound risks that threaten states & societies UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE POLICIES POPULATION GROWTH VOLATILE FOOD PRICES & PROVISION CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASING RESOURCE DEMAND EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & DISASTERS LIVELIHOOD INSECURITY & MIGRATION LOCAL RESOURCE COMPETITION 4

5 7 compound climate-fragility risks TRANSBOUNDARY WATER MANAGEMENT SEA-LEVEL RISE & COASTAL DEGRADATION VOLATILE FOOD PRICES & PROVISION UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE POLICIES LOCAL RESOURCE COMPETITION EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & DISASTERS LIVELIHOOD INSECURITY & MIGRATION VOLATILE FOOD PRICES & PROVISION TRANSBOUNDARY WATER MANAGEMENT EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & DISASTERS SEA-LEVEL RISE & COASTAL DEGRADATION UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE POLICIES LIVELIHOOD INSECURITY & MIGRATION LOCAL RESOURCE COMPETITION 5

6 Civil war in Syria 6

7 Extreme weather events Flooding in Thailand 2011 Strongest monsoon rains in 30 years, 2 million people across 26 provinces were affected Politically already fragile situation, protests against the government since 2008, new government in power Reaction and aid was perceived as not transparent and unfair Protest break out and continue until the coup in 2014 Quelle: dany13/flickr, European Commission/flickt 7

8 Non-state armed groups Climate change, insurgency, terrorism and organised crime Climate change does not create terrorists or criminals, but it contributes to an environment in which these groups can thrive: They can operate more freely in fragile and conflict-affected contexts Livelihood insecurity can make population groups more vulnerable to recruitment Adequate responses take into account this complexity 8

9 Complex climate-fragility risks 9

10 Building resilience against climate fragility risks 10

11 Foreign policy Make climate diplomacy a priorty Move beyond crisis management to preventative action and diplomacy, for example water diplomacy Policy coherence and integration, for example international frameworks (Paris, SDGs, etc.) Prepare the multilateral system (UN system) 11

12 Development cooperation and humanitarian aid Better link development cooperation and humanitarian aid need to go beyond treating symptoms Provide integrated financing streams example IcSP Link climate change adaptation and peacebuilding example UN Env. project 12

13 Climate policy Mitigation: limiting temperatures is the most effective prevention Adaptation: More funding for adaptation Ensuring that money reaches the most fragile and vulnerable countries Ensuring that adaptation plans and projects take fragility and conflict risks into account 13

14 Defence and security policy Move beyond questions of disaster response and greening military operations Broaden strategic thinking: Understand how climate change could alter the broader contours of defense policy (incl. geopolitics) Incorporate climate planning into defence and strategic planning, in particular requirements and early warning systems Advocacy 14

15 Lukas Rüttinger Senior Projektmanager adelphi Caspar-Theyss-Strasse 14a Berlin T +49 (0) F +49 (0) office@adelphi.de