Is the Lloyd s market still attractive?

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1 Jeremy Brazil, president, Markel International Stuart Davies, managing director, Aegis London Jeffrey Mace, partner, Sutherland Asbill & Brennan Neil Maidment, chief underwriting officer, Beazley Sean McGovern, risk management director and general counsel, Lloyd s Is the Lloyd s market still attractive? A year since Lloyd s launched its Vision 2025 strategy, and London s subscription re/insurance market is buoyant and ambitious to grow internationally. Reactions partnered with law firm Sutherland Asbill & Brennan to ask how attractive is Lloyd s now? What makes Lloyd s an attractive place to do business for current and prospective market entrants? Neil Maidment, Beazley: The obvious things are the combination of the global licensing platform, the very powerful brand rating, capital efficiency, and access to business; all things that have made it an attractive place historically and I think are at least as true today as they ve ever been. I ve been at Lloyd s since 84 and I would say that over the last 10 years, particularly, Lloyd s has refined that offering to the point where it is incredibly attractive to carriers and, in particular, the brand has been significantly enhanced in the last 10 years. It s an incredibly powerful brand. It went through a couple of very difficult periods at the beginning of the 90s before Reconstruction and Renewal and at the turn of this century. But since then we have this tremendous brand which is now founded and respected for underwriting performance, which is what Lloyd s has always been about. I think it s partly to do with the strength of the participants in the market. Market forces have consolidated the marketplace into fewer, stronger, better resourced, better managed, more technically adept entities, and it s been supported by the way the market has been reorganised and the Franchise Performance Board. So we have this unique strength as a marketplace, with a strong risk management framework which doesn t exist anywhere else globally. Stuart Davies, Aegis: I think Lloyd s is a great centre of excellence of insurance talent whether it be brokers, underwriters, claims professionals and others. So for a lot of clients, they can get their interesting risks covered in London. Because it has been successful 50 July/August 2013 Reactions at that, and profitable over the past decade, a lot of investors, a lot of clients, a lot of capital want to come to London. Lloyd s provides more than reinsurance. It s roughly fifty-fifty between reinsurance and direct insurance. We have great relationships with collateralised capital, but they only play in a certain space. Jeremy Brazil, Markel International: I think people seem to forget the capital point. If you were starting up in Bermuda you d need at least $500m if not $1bn of capital and you d probably get an A- rating straight out of the chute. Compared to that, the Lloyd s market is very capital efficient. Some of the entities here, trading under the Lloyd s banner, can put relatively modest amounts of capital in and still get access to everything that Neil said. Lloyd s does get criticised sometimes for being an expensive place to do business, but I use the analogy that it s a bit like joining a gym club: if you go there every day and take full advantage of the facilities, it s actually very good value; if you go once a month then it s not. Neil Maidment, Beazley: I think the capital efficiency is something that I would definitely underscore. At Beazley, we deliberately write over 95% of the business that we handle in the group on the Lloyd s platform. So although we write some of our business outside of the Lloyd s market, including in separately capitalised subsidiaries, we bring that business back onto the Lloyd s platform because of the very effective and efficient capital model that we have here. Jeffrey Mace, Sutherland: Agreed, the licenses, the rating, the builtin back office, the location, the brand recognition all of these

2 attributes make it very attractive for capital to come to Lloyd s. I see the success of the Franchise Board as one of the great Lloyd s developments. Over the last 10 years it has brought a high level of confidence to existing underwriters and potential new capital providers, as well as to policyholders and the industry in general that Lloyd s is not merely renting the brand and exposing its central fund to anyone who can write a check. There is a very real conscious process that is undertaken both with respect to evaluating the business plans of the current membership and the business plans of prospective entrants. One of the challenges that the society faces is how to assimilate larger new entrants into the market. Those members and institutions that have their roots in Lloyd s that lived through Reconstruction and Renewal have the value of the Lloyd s brand ingrained in their DNA. They fully appreciate that their own corporate interests are aligned with those of the society. Healthy competition does not detract from the common goal of making sure the Lloyd s brand is number one. Newer players coming into the market do not necessarily appreciate the overriding value of the brand. Many arrive with their own very impressive brand, they are correctly thinking about what is best for them. My experience is that it does not take long, however, for these new groups to appreciate the value of the Lloyd s brand, as one that compliments their own, and hence adds to the value of the Lloyd s brand. The Franchise Board plays a key role from the minute new capital walks in the door to assist this transition and to illustrate the value of the constructive oversight they provide. Sean McGovern, Lloyd s: Looking at Lloyd s as a prospective market entrant, for a new syndicate, there s an opportunity to join what is a very dynamic marketplace. They get access to the network, the brand, the rating, and the reputation, not to mention the very strong position of the market financially and competitively within specialty lines. If you start a syndicate at Lloyd s, you get immediate access to all those benefits. Plus, you get immediate access to back office infrastructure, so it s an efficient way to write speciality business. You can run an efficient business at Lloyd s without needing to build a lot of that infrastructure for yourself. What is it Lloyd s brings that is unique to global insurance and reinsurance? Neil Maidment, Beazley: There is no single reason, but a combination of all the qualities we have mentioned. It is of course the only physical subscription marketplace in the world, so it is the place where large, complex, new and difficult risks can be digested efficiently by a marketplace. That just simply doesn t exist anywhere else and because that exists here, we then get, as Jeff was saying, this hub and density of talent and resource and capital and access to business. It s a virtuous circle; these things feed off each other. Stuart Davies, Aegis: We re good at doing things that are slightly different, whether that s high risk on cat, a slightly different way of looking at things, and we have a long track record of working with partners, whether clients or intermediaries, on solutions that they need binding authorities in the US is one such example. Even where it doesn t meet certain high cat niches, there are long-term relationships with certain syndicates. Are we different from Bermuda and the Continental Europeans? The subscription market makes us different. You ve got a large number of leaders in each class, each with a slightly different take on things. As a consequence, a good intermediary can find a good leader to provide client solutions. If you have a good leader, then even if there is not a huge amount of capacity, the subscription market adds up the capacity. But most of the time on large risks we are on slips with the Bermuda and Continental insurers and vice versa. We still see the US over the medium term as our largest opportunity for growth. Yes, it s a very mature market but the maturity is what drives the demand for our specialist product set. Neil Maidment, chief underwriting officer, Beazley Jeffrey Mace, Sutherland: Obviously subscription underwriting is not unique to Lloyd s. The company market in London and elsewhere shares risks in many ways. Whether it is vertical, horizontal, pooling arrangements, ILW etc the industry is great at finding new ways to share risks. One thing that makes Lloyd s unique is the existence of the central fund, with very significant resources, that stand behind every Lloyd s policy. There are guarantee funds, but those are not thought of in the same way as the Lloyd s central fund. It may be a cliché but being able to say that no legitimate Lloyd s policyholder has ever had a policy go unpaid for over 320 years speaks volumes to policyholders and regulators worldwide. The strength of that brand survived the challenges of the 1990s in large part because of the central fund and the goodwill created in the decades prior to actually needing it. If anything, the management team at Lloyd s has strengthened the value of that brand over the last five or 10 years adding capacity, capital and diversity to an already thriving market place. One might have thought that as some the largest non-lloyd s insurance players including the likes of AIG, Liberty and Markel, each with their own licences, their own brands and their own ratings joined the Lloyd s market that they would begin to differentiate themselves from Lloyd s and diluted the brand. Rather what has happened is that the coordination of these great independent brands has made the Lloyd s brand that much stronger. Vision 2025 talked about internationalising the Lloyd s market s composition: is that a reachable strategic ambition, in terms of premium, capital and people? Sean McGovern, Lloyd s: There are three things that underpin Vision One is attracting business from these new markets that are growing a lot faster than our core markets. The second is attracting capital from those markets. We have a lot of capital that comes from our core traditional markets: the US, the UK, Bermuda, Australia, etc. What we have to is diversify that capital base so that we have capital coming from the faster growing emerging economies. The third aspect is attracting people, because to be a successful underwriting business, you have to tap into local talent, local relationships. Neil Maidment, Beazley: I think the most important factor of Vision 2025 is the strong challenge to some reasonably well performing businesses in the marketplace to look beyond their three, five, or even 10 year plans at what potential strategic changes they may need or challenges they may need to meet in the longer term. So, what s Lloyd s value proposition going to be in a changing world? We have to think about whether we re going to have the right products, the right licensing, and the right access to customers in a future world. Reactions July/August

3 We would like the market to grow because the bigger critical mass we ve got, the more important player we are on the world stage. But we do question whether there s a link between getting capital in from Asia and whether that is then going to produce business from Asia into Lloyd s. Jeremy Brazil, president, Markel International Stuart Davies, Aegis: In terms of growing overseas through capital, I think we are already doing it. At Aegis London we have two Far East reinsurers that invest in us. So we are a mid-sized Lloyd s syndicate, but with Asian capital investment in our business. Of course you have Catlin and China Re, but there is quite a lot of this going around the marketplace. Chaucer had Malaysian capital at one point, and there is a lot of Japanese capital now. I know that Indian capital is also looking to get into this market. So a lot of it is already happening. Lloyd s also has its Singapore office, China and others. We at Aegis have already decided against going into China, but are looking at other international markets. Just as important as that, though, is focusing on the markets we are already in. But growth in insurance business is not always good news. Growth with profitability is good news. We re cautious about growing the business, because it is easy to grow insurance business, but because of claims costs, it s much harder to grow it profitably. We think that although international markets are going to get increasingly more important, we should not forget the markets that we are already in. North America represents a huge amount of our business. Any vision and strategy for London means making our clients happy rather just than any particular segment. Jeremy Brazil, Markel International: The majority of our business still comes from the US, UK and Europe. These are all mature, over-served markets and, in terms of growing those, it s either organic or it s by acquisition. So, where are the new customers going to be? Where is the growth going to be? It s likely to be the growing economies in Asia and Latin America. We would like the market to grow because the bigger critical mass we ve got, the more important player we are on the world stage. But we do question whether there s a link between getting capital in from Asia and whether that is then going to produce business from Asia into Lloyd s. I struggle with that one. I think the reason they want to come into Lloyd s is to be able to diversify their account and write business that they re not currently seeing. We see a number of significant players in Latin America and Asia looking to be international players rather than just regional writers. John Nelson has been saying, for example, that he sees a great opportunity for Lloyd s to expand in China. I think, while it would be good to get more cosmopolitan involvement in Lloyd s, the key is more to do that by virtue of the likes of Markel and others looking to spread their wings geographically and employing local people who do understand the style, the culture and the language. I think Lloyd s needs to try and make that 52 July/August 2013 Reactions process easier. In the past I ve questioned how joined up Lloyd s international strategy has been, but I sense that s changing. Sean McGovern, Lloyd s: I think a model of that where Lloyd s has been successful as a market is Singapore. Over time, Lloyd s in Singapore has transformed itself from a market where it was populated by people being exported from London to Singapore, to a situation where a lot of the underwriters are from the region and writing regional business. What we have to do is build on that in other jurisdictions, and make sure we attract talent into overseas operations, to leverage the cultural, language and local relationships to make Vision 2025 successful. Inevitably, that s a long-term strategy. None of these things can be achieved overnight. We ve set out our stall very clearly, and we are working with the market, to see how we can build for the future. Neil Maidment, Beazley: I think the interesting question posed by Vision 2025 is the degree to which business that is developed in emerging economies will be regionalised, to what degree will it remain in-country, as opposed to being exported to centres of excellence; whether that s Lloyd s or elsewhere. And, off the back of that challenge, we then have to ask ourselves, have we got the right licensing platform to access the business? Have we got the right connections, whether that s capital coming into our market; whether that s employing people who have resources and connections? And are we going to be relevant? Is our product going to be relevant to the customers in those areas? We still see the US over the medium term as our largest opportunity for growth. Yes, it s a very mature market but the maturity is what drives the demand for our specialist product set. So we have to focus on the areas that have relevant demand and grow through innovation, through new products, and perhaps better distribution, particularly as it looks more probable to us now that the US economy is looking a little brighter. Jeremy Brazil, Markel International: I d pick up Neil s point, and say if you look at the size of Beazley or Markel by market share in Europe it s relatively small. If you ve got half a percent market share, if you can double it to 1%, then that is a realistic goal and this is unlikely to disrupt the local market. However, when you re in a market where you ve perhaps got 20% of the marketplace then you re going to struggle growing it. But in 10 years time, say, if not before, yes, I think you ll see a material amount of business emanating from Asia and Latin America, because you ve got to think about the middle class in China. Very soon it will be a larger population than the whole of Europe and this sector will become spenders rather than savers. Jeffrey Mace, Sutherland: This is an area where great opportunities and great challenges lie ahead. I believe the Corporation of Lloyd s The great thing about this market is the discipline that the centre demands but also the flexibility and entrepreneural spirit that the numerous individual franchises provide. Jeffrey Mace, partner, Sutherland

4 has a different challenge than the individual players in the market have. The Corporation has a somewhat longer time horizon than the individual business. It has to think through how to keep the market relevant in the future. This includes responding to the needs and objectives of the current market participants. Do they want to expand to China? India? Brazil? And doing a if we build it will you use it type of analysis. Individual Lloyd s businesses will make their own assessment on whether to take advantage of these opportunities consistent with their corporate strategy and resources. But the Corporation also needs to think about future capital providers where will they come from, how will we attract them, what will they want, how does the market continue to evolve? They need to build consensus, but consensus over what is best for the institution rather than for any particular member. This market has not been successful for over 300 years by simply getting bigger. Vision 2025 is the very type of thinking that is necessary. Lloyd s needs to be out in front, to lead with ideas, to create opportunities for the current and future market, possibly before individual businesses are ready to take advantage of those opportunities. For example, with regard to a particular region of the world, it may be that the current market isn t ready to jump in yet, that the premium flow may not appear to justify the dedicated resources, but one could imagine that a century or two ago, people were sitting in a room similar to this saying what do you mean we re going to the US, why would we waste our time and resources doing that? I don t think anyone doubts that one day whether it s 10, 20 or 50 years from now China, Brazil, India and other parts of the world will be a major market for Lloyd s both in terms of policyholders and capital providers. The great thing about this market is the discipline that the centre demands but also the flexibility and entrepreneural spirit that the numerous individual franchises provide. Asian business tends to be very competitive. How can Lloyd s demonstrate relevance and value in those markets and competing hubs? Neil Maidment, Beazley: Lloyd s has a unique role as a place where customers who have large, complex, new, difficult risk can find a risk solution so we need to concentrate on what can advance and preserve that unique position in the market. My view is we need to think about the efficiency of the platform. We need to innovate relevant products for those customers and find ways to craft innovative solutions for customers risk needs, and we need to maintain the quality. Sean McGovern, Lloyd s: Traditionally it s always been the case that the more bespoke the solution, the more Lloyd s comes into its own. We need to ensure that we continue to maintain the ability of syndicates to innovate, making sure that in our oversight of the market that innovation is welcome and risk-taking is welcome. That is the message we continue to deliver. Innovation is core to this market. How is the Lloyd s market innovating to stay at the forefront of insurance and reinsurance market trends in terms of products and structures? Sean McGovern, Lloyd s: Lloyd s is not a commodity market. It s a market that is based on meeting the risk management needs of its customers. It s crucial to that to understand that innovation is a collaborative effort between underwriters and brokers. Brokers have as much of a role to play in driving the construction of risk management solutions for their clients as the underwriters do. It s that face to face dynamic interaction at Lloyd s that frankly you do not get in other markets. That allows Lloyd s to be innovative in meeting risk management needs. Lloyd s has a role centrally to make sure that we encourage innovation, and also that innovation is done in a responsible A good example of recent innovation is cyber liability products. There are still many questions about what cyber products should look like and what will the claims situation look like, but we at Lloyd s are designing things to help clients. Stuart Davies, managing director, Aegis London fashion. The industry is very good at insuring things buildings and other objects that you can physically see. However, the real issue is increasingly on insuring intangibles. That takes greater imagination and thinking about how the risk profile of a business is changing cyber risk products are, of course, one example of that. Stuart Davies, Aegis: A good example of recent innovation is cyber liability products. There are still many questions about what cyber products should look like and what will the claims situation look like, but we at Lloyd s are designing things to help clients. At Aegis we are writing stand-alone cyber business and joint policies, leading a consortium of Lloyd s syndicates. We have a niche underwriter to do that, who understands the risk and rewards for that area and clients needs. In that respect it s no different to a cargo book or any other niche. It s an innovation, but if you go back 10 years, so was writing terrorism business. What Lloyd s is good at is asking what a client s problem is, and therefore how can we provide a product to protect you. That means products are more bespoke, and when policies become more bespoke, that s where we re really good. Neil Maidment, Beazley: There is also a continuing development of response service products. One major example has been Hiscox within the Lloyd s market developing a proposition for kidnap and ransom (K&R), based on the response services. Beazley is among those involved with cyber. What s interesting about all these products is that they advance the claims service proposition, getting the claims service direct to the customer, getting the decision-making direct to the customer. I think response service-driven products are interesting in insurance because instead of competing over price or extent of cover, we re competing about the quality and value of the service, and the crisis response that we re offering to the customer. So the proposition isn t that: If you have a claim, we ll write you a cheque. The proposition is rather that: If you have a problem, we ll fix it. That s extremely powerful. Jeffrey Mace, Sutherland: The only thing I would add to that as a buyer of insurance from this market for many years is that by partnering with clients, every product is being innovated and tailored to the policyholders. We all accept that there are risks and that there is always a profit motive, but you never feel like the intent is to have a quick windfall one way or the other: it is really about how policyholders and capital providers manage exposures that we have little control over. I think of this market, with the diversity that all of Reactions July/August

5 Traditionally it s always been the case that the more bespoke the solution, the more Lloyd s comes into its own. Sean McGovern, risk management director and general counsel, Lloyd s the different players bring, as being one of the best examples of how a free market economy is supposed to work supply and demand, and crucially with participants being held accountable for their decisions. It brings great discipline and encourages great ingenuity. If you make a bad underwriting decision, you re going to pay for it. You re going to have to lose a lot of your own money. I think that s a very healthy aspect of this market. currently unsure about the direction the market will take in the short term. Long term interest rates have to go up. Jeffrey Mace, Sutherland: I don t think anyone has any idea what will happen next. But one could make some observations that as interest rates rise some of this alternative capital that has found its way into the industry will find another home. Having said that, it s been a low interest rate environment for a long time, and a lot of this capital is becoming sticky and transition itself into insurance capital. There are some very clever bankers and fund managers who came to the industry with little knowledge of insurance, but great ideas about ways to attract and use capital. It didn t take long for some of these new players to understand the insurance industry and add value to what is offered to policy holders. At the same time the traditional insurers have quickly learned the opportunities presented by this new capital. The market is better for it. What is unclear is how much of that capital will stay and how much will go when interest rates rise is unclear, and how this will effect pricing is equally unclear. These are not independent variables so it makes it even more difficult to predict. Neil Maidment, Beazley: The great thing about innovation is that the industry as a whole is not terribly good at it, so it presents an opportunity. Lloyd s has got a great historical track record of creating innovative responses, all the way back to Cuthbert Heath and the first burglary policy, satellites, aviation and so many other products. The great thing about the service response products we ve seen, and I think the reason that Lloyd s has been able to develop them so well, is that what we really offer is access to the decision maker. So it s that entrepreneurial spirit and accountability. The decision maker can craft a response. So when the broker came and sat in front Cuthbert Heath, saying: You ll never guess what I ve been asked to try and place, and that s a burglary policy. I don t suppose anyone can do it, they worked a way a through and crafted how to respond to that request. That s hard to imagine if it s got to go through committees and layers of management, and somebody s going to say: Oh shoot, do we really have to do that? It s having access to the decision maker at Lloyd s, I think, that drives the ability for the market to hold this position as an innovator. We ve seen some economic developments in the US recently, preparing the way for interest rate rises. How will the market react as and when the investment environment changes? Jeremy Brazil, Markel International: Responsibly, I hope. We don t want to go back to the days where if the combined ratio is running at 110% but interest rates are 10%, people think they are making money. Because they ought to know by now that they probably weren t making money on their business in the first place. Stuart Davies, Aegis: I think things have already changed. Interest rate expectations have changed dramatically just within the past few weeks. There is a reduction in investment returns for this year, because we have taken capital losses on bonds. Secondly, there is more running yield because market interest rates are getting higher. Thirdly, we use discount rates for capital, so higher bond yields probably decreases the amount of capital we need. Like everything in life, it s not just good news or bad news; changes in investment markets it have many consequences. Broadly speaking it s probably bad news today, and good news for future income and good news for future capital. There is no golden bullet of what to invest in. So, each individual insurance company and syndicate will look at the market changes and what it means for them. Everyone may come up with very different responses. Our investment managers are 54 July/August 2013 Reactions Neil Maidment, Beazley: On the one hand, the low interest rate environment has made insurance attractive as part of a search for yield. Some of the capital which has come to the market either by investing into insurance stocks or just by accessing cat risk and cat bonds is just because there are high yields. Some of that doubtless will stay and increase capital in the industry. With rising rates, we ll earn some more investment income. We ll have an offset to potential inflation risk in the claims costs in the longer term. But while rates remain as low as they have been, it has the effect of focusing attention on the technical underwriting result. That s novel for a lot of the market, bearing in mind that the US industry has made a pure technical profit only four years in the last 30. So the low rate environment has been supportive of underwriting pricing, I think, for commercial products in the US and particularly for anything with a longer tail liability. And we re continuing to see the commercial marketplace achieve some rate increases in the US, despite recent rises in interest rates. Jeremy Brazil, Markel International: Picking up on the point that perhaps insurers need to charge more, you have to have a customer that can afford to pay more. I think part of the problem s been when there s been a soft market in the past, normally the economy is rising, unlike the last few years, so its difficult in an inadequate rating environment to push price when the customers are seeing their own businesses suffer and can t justify paying any more. Jeremy Brazil, Markel International: I think we all live in fear of new risk manager being put in place at a company, because the first thing he wants to do is to save money. But you have to question whether what they ve now bought is actually better or worse value than what they had before. And it might be that they don t want to spend say more than $2m this year, so they ll increase their retention materially, get a cheaper price job done. If a company s struggling and with an increasing expense base, they need to make savings somewhere and that s likely to be their insurance spend. We have to take the view that the market the way it is today is reality. So we need to make money as it is. It s not and never has been acceptable to state your business case that I m going to lose you money until such time as there s a major event or a marketchanging event. I think that s where Lloyd s has shown its strength in the last few years. Looking at Lloyd s performance figures, we ve outperformed most of the other markets. If we can make money in what we think is not a particularly good place to be, well, when the market improves we can only do better. l

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